Progressing at cruising speed

Following a $100m private placement, Bavarian Nordic is ready to push its pipeline forward and create long-term value. Smallpox vaccine Imvamune is being stockpiled by the US and Canadian governments and Prostvac is advancing towards top-line Phase III data in 2017. The MVA-BN RSV vaccine is progressing towards mid-stage studies, while Phase II trials of CV-301 and Prostvac in combination with checkpoint inhibitors will start by mid-year. Our updated valuation of DKK13.4bn includes RSV and the l

Private placement trumps IPO

The current weak US IPO conditions have resulted in a slight change of plan for Bavarian Nordic. It recently shelved its US listing plans and instead completed a private share placement, which raised c $100m vs. the expected $86m in the F-1 filing. New funds will be used for the same purposes as the IPO, namely advancing the development of CV-301, MVABN RSV and for capex. Prostvac has passed its first interim analysis and the Phase III trial will continue without modification.

Seeking a cash injection from the US

Bavarian Nordic’s intention to list on NASDAQ is a strategic move to broaden its appeal to US investors and raise additional funds to accelerate clinical development of multi-tumor cancer immunotherapy CV-301 and respiratory syncytial virus vaccine MVA-BN RSV and to expand its manufacturing capacity. As a well-funded revenue generating company, it should still appeal to investors despite market headwinds. While pricing is to be determined, the likely timing of the proposed IPO represents an at

Advancing the pipeline with start of RSV trial

Bavarian Nordic has now commenced the planned Phase I study of MVABN RSV. Advancing the earlier-stage pipeline is one of Bavarian Nordic’s key priorities, hence this represents an important step. RSV could be a significant opportunity, particularly in adults, and we expect Bavarian to consider partnering, albeit not until at least Phase II. Our valuation, which does not yet include RSV owing to its early stage of development, is largely unchanged at DKK12.6bn.

Warpaint London+ (W7L, House Stock at 375p) - Trading ahead of expectations - +10% upgrade implied

The Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2024

Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol

Avon Protection - Unmasking its growth potential

Avon Protection’s capital markets day highlighted its continued focus on medium-term margin expansion (targeting operating margin of 14–16%), concentrating on its core business of respirators and head protection. The unwinding of the armour business, alongside the consolidation of Team Wendy (acquired in H220) should enable Avon to benefit from rising global defence spending. Its strong relationship with the US DoD, and organic growth opportunities with recurring revenue from necessary product r

Morning Note – 9 April 2024

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 15 April 24

15th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Change of Market: TheWorks (WRKS.L) a multi-channel value retailers of books, arts and crafts, stationery, toys and games, offering customers a differentiated propositio

Morning Note – 8 April 2024

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 17 April 24

17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

Hardman & Co Healthcare Index: 2023 – Capital demands dent performance

The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (

Hardman & Co Research: Tissue Regenix (TRX) - Six consecutive periods of >20% growth

TRX is focused on the development and commercialisation of two proprietary processing technologies for the repair of soft tissue (dCELL®) and bone (BioRinse®). It has a broad portfolio of products used in biosurgery, orthopaedics and dental markets. Investment in tissue processing, manufacturing capacity and strong commercial partners, together with its “4S” strategy, has generated six consecutive reporting periods of strong growth, with TRX turning EBITDA-positive in 2023. Further growth in 202

Cambridge Nutritional Sciences - H1 2024 interims: Executing a newly focussed st

Cambridge Nutritional Sciences (CNS) has published its H1 2024 results to end September 2023. Group revenues grew 44% to £4.9m and gross profits increased by 63% to £3.1m, with the company benefitting from newfound operational efficiencies. With its now streamlined strategy focussing on the core Health & Nutrition business and the initial signs of an encouraging uptick in sales momentum, we believe the company is well positioned for growth that will help create future value for shareholders. We

Morning Note – 22 March 2024

Venture Life Group - Strong organic growth; focus on EBITDA

Venture Life has reported FY23 results to December 2023, following the February trading update. Revenues grew 17% in the year to £51.4m (our est. £50.7m) and adjusted EBITDA was £11.6m (our est. £11.6m). Cash conversion was 85%, generating £9.8m of cash from operations. Cash generation and no M&A in 2023 allowed the company to de-lever, closing FY23 with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 1.3x. Management have focused on growth with three therapy areas generating double-digit revenue growth and onli

Creo Medical - Solid FY23 lays the groundwork for 2024

Creo Medical has released a trading update for FY23, an active year for the company, with progress made across all business segments. Traction improved in H223, following Speedboat Inject’s European clearance for upper gastrointestinal (GI) procedures and the accelerated approval and launch of Creo’s slimmest electrosurgical device, Speedboat UltraSlim. Top-line growth was supported by continued streamlining of the cost structure, resulting in a better-than-expected underlying EBITDA loss (impro

Warpaint London + (W7L, House Stock at 382p) - Late-year sparkles– another double-digit upgrade to FY23F EPS

Zoetis Inc.: Launch Of CircoMatch & Other Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, ESG & Other Risks (02/23)

Zoetis delivered a decent set of results for the last quarter of 2022 meeting analyst expectations as well as the high end of its management guidance. Despite the economic challenges, ongoing pandemic recovery, and the political unpredictability brought on by the war in Ukraine, they delivered operational growth for the year in each of their top 13 markets. The company's unique companion animal portfolio drove its 8% operational revenue increase for the year, growing 14% operationally. In compar