Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on CARLSBERG AS-B. We currently have 8 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Weak Q4;FY17 will be a year of delivery for “Funding the Journey”
08 Feb 17
Carlsberg’s Q4 update: organic sales were down 2% (cons. +1.3%) with volumes down 5% (cons. -2.8%) and +3% price/mix. On a reported basis, revenue was down 6% (FX: -2%). OG net revenue by region: Western Europe -3% (cons. 0.7%), Eastern Europe -4% (cons. 1.2%) and Asia 4% (cons. 1.6%). OG beer volume by region: Western Europe -5% (cons. -2%), Eastern Europe -10% (cons. -3.6%, impacted by the PET 1.5l+ ban) and Asia -2% (cons. -1.9%). On a FY basis, sales progressed organically by +2% and were down 4% on reported figures. The group’s beer volumes were down 2% (impacted by restructuring costs in Russia and China, as well as a reduction in margin-dilutive contracts in Western Europe). The operating profit was up +5% organically. The operating margin was up +30bp on reported figures. For FY17, Carlsberg expects to deliver mid single-digit organic operating profit growth and a further reduction in financial leverage. By region, the group expects improving margins and operating profit in Western Europe, continuing top-line and earnings growth in Asia and growing operating profit organically in Eastern Europe. FX should also provide some tailwinds. The proposed dividend is DKK10.00 per share, up from DKK9.00 a year earlier.
Q3 is a mixed bag; upgrade of its FY guidnace
09 Nov 16
Q3 update: Organic sales were up +1% (cons. +1.5%) with flat volumes (cons. -1.8%) and +1% price/mix. On a reported basis, revenue was down 4% (FX: -4%). OG net revenue by region: Western Europe -4% (cons. 0%, impacted by destocking), Eastern Europe 16% (cons. 4.9%) and Asia 2% (cons. 3.5%). OG beer volume by region: Western Europe -4% (cons. -3%), Eastern Europe +10% (cons. 0%) and Asia -1% (cons. -2.3%). The company upgraded its FY guidance: organic operating growth should be up c. 5% (previously low-single digit) and a FX translation impact of DKK-550m (vs.DKK-600m previously).
H1: Funding the Journey improves profitability but FX drags down the figures
17 Aug 16
Carlsberg’s H1 update: organic revenue was up 4% (cons. +3.2%, Q2: 6%). Volumes were down 1% (cons. -0.8%), price/mix stood at 5%. On a reported basis revenue was down 4% due to adverse currency effects. H1 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe 2% (Q2: +7%), Eastern Europe +8% (Q2: -4%), Asia +4% (Q2: +3%). The group’s operating margin was up +50bp in organic terms and contracted by 10bp on a reported basis due to higher central costs linked to investments behind EURO 2016. Operating profit grew 8% organically. The group maintains its FY guidance: low single-digit operating profit growth and financial leverage reduction.
11 May 16
Carlsberg released its Q1 update. Organic volumes contracted by 2% (cons. -1.1%). Organic revenue was up +2% (cons. 1.3%). Price/mix stood at 4%. On reported figures, revenue was down -3% (FX: -5%). Q1 beer volumes by region: Western Europe -7% (cons. -4.1%), Eastern Europe +6% (cons. -2.5%), Asia -1% (cons. +1%). Q1 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe -3% (cons. -2.6%), Eastern Europe +20% (cons. +10%), Asia +5% (cons. +4.6%). The group maintains its FY guidance of organic operating profit growth in a low single-digit.
SAIL ’22 strategy
16 Mar 16
Carlsberg presented its SAIL ’22 strategy. The group aims to deliver a continuous organic operating profit growth and continuous improvement in the ROIC. On the financial side, the group is targeting a net interest-bearing debt/EBITDA ratio of less than 2.0x and increasing its dividend payout ratio to 50% of the adjusted net result. The excess cash will be distributed to shareholders via share buy-backs or extraordinary dividends.
Strategic review to be announced on 16 March. Fingers crossed.
10 Feb 16
Carlsberg reported its Q4 & FY results. In Q4, organic beer volumes were down 4% (consensus -2.7%) whereas the net revenue grew organically by +5% (cons +1.8%). Price/mix stood at +6%. Q4 organic beer volume by region: Western Europe -2% (consensus -0.5%), Eastern Europe -9% (cons -8%), Asia -1% (cons +2%). Q4 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe +2% (cons -0.8%), Eastern Europe +12% (cons +5.9%), Asia +3% (cons +4.6%). For the full year, organic beer volumes were down 4% whereas the organic net revenue rose +2%. On reported figures, net revenue increased +1% whereas the operating margin was down 140bp to 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was down to DKK-2,926m. The proposed dividend is DKK9.00. For FY16, the group expects the developments in its major beer markets to be in line with 2015: Europe flat with some positive impact from UEFA Euro 2016 (Carlsberg is a global sponsor). South-East Asia should perform well whereas Eastern Europe should remain under pressure. Consequently, Carlsberg expects in FY16 to deliver low single-digit percentage organic operating profit growth and reduce financial leverage. The revised strategy, SAIL’22, will be announced on 16 March.
New Product Development Enhances the Mix
17 Mar 17
Fever Tree’s (FEVR LN, HOLD, T/P 1250p) announces preliminary 2016 results on Tuesday 21st March. We forecast revenue to increase 72.6% to £102.2m in line with the 24th January trading update, and adjusted diluted EPS to continue its positive momentum to 25.2p (23.7p FY2015). Current consensus appears to be 24.0p (Source: Bloomberg).
21 Mar 17
Fever Tree’s (FEVR LN, HOLD, T/P 1250p) preliminary 2016 results this morning included in line EBITDA and diluted EPS. The company reported £35.8m of EBITDA – marginally ahead of our own £35.6m estimate and in front of £34.9m consensus forecast. Adjusted diluted EPS was 23.7p (+104%), consistent with our estimate (23.7p) but slightly below the 24.0p predicted by consensus (source: Bloomberg). Fever Tree holds an analyst presentation at 9.30am.
Panmure Morning Note 20-03-2017
20 Mar 17
Today’s H1FY17 results are in line with our and consensus expectations, and we are therefore maintaining our FY17 and FY18 PBT estimates. We regard this as a resilient performance given the turbulent backdrop. We leave our BUY rating and 150p TP unchanged to reflect our positive view on FIF’s long-term prospects predicated on; (1) FIF’s broad-based business spread across channel, customer and product providing diversification of opportunity and risk; (2) FIF is wellpositioned in the fast-growing areas (e.g. artisan breads, celebration cakes, “food-to-go”/foodservice) of the UK bakery market; and (3) FIF’s market leading position and size to deliver scale advantage to develop its stated growth opportunities (including targeted accretive acquisitions), further supported by FIF’s sound financial position (H1FY17 net debt/EBITDA of 0.8x).
Small Cap Breakfast
23 Mar 17
K3 Capital Group—Schedule 1 from the Group of business and company sales specialists across business transfer, business brokerage and corporate finance. Admission date and fundraise details TBC. Integumen— Schedule 1 from the personal health company developing and commercialising technology and products for the human integumentary system. Raising £2.16m at 5p. Expected market cap £8.16m. Admission expected 5 April. Sentinel—Investment company expecting NEX admission/introduction on 24 March. £636k raised pre-IPO. BioPharma Credit—Expected Gross Initial Acquisition Proceeds now c.$338m. Gross Cash Proceeds capped at $423m with placing and open offer. Results expected 23 March with admission now due 30 march.
10 for 17
09 Jan 17
As always at the start of a year, there are significant uncertainties about the year ahead but I think in 2017, the level of uncertainly has decisively moved up a gear. In fact, a leading economist at the LSE, Ethan Ilzetzki, was recently quoted as saying “I view the current global economic environment as the most uncertain in modern history”. Wow.
Small Cap Breakfast
21 Mar 17
First Sentinel—Investment company expecting NEX admission/introduction on 24 March. £636k raised pre-IPO. BioPharma Credit—Expected Gross Initial Acquisition Proceeds now c.$338m. Gross Cash Proceeds capped at $423m with placing and open offer. Results expected 23 March with admission now due 30 march. Tufton Oceanic Assets- The Company intends to invest in a diversified portfolio of second hand commercial sea-going vessels where the Investment Manager believes that an attractive opportunity exists in shipping. $150m raise. Admission 3 April.