Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on CARLSBERG AS-B. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Q3 is a mixed bag; upgrade of its FY guidnace
09 Nov 16
Q3 update: Organic sales were up +1% (cons. +1.5%) with flat volumes (cons. -1.8%) and +1% price/mix. On a reported basis, revenue was down 4% (FX: -4%). OG net revenue by region: Western Europe -4% (cons. 0%, impacted by destocking), Eastern Europe 16% (cons. 4.9%) and Asia 2% (cons. 3.5%). OG beer volume by region: Western Europe -4% (cons. -3%), Eastern Europe +10% (cons. 0%) and Asia -1% (cons. -2.3%). The company upgraded its FY guidance: organic operating growth should be up c. 5% (previously low-single digit) and a FX translation impact of DKK-550m (vs.DKK-600m previously).
H1: Funding the Journey improves profitability but FX drags down the figures
17 Aug 16
Carlsberg’s H1 update: organic revenue was up 4% (cons. +3.2%, Q2: 6%). Volumes were down 1% (cons. -0.8%), price/mix stood at 5%. On a reported basis revenue was down 4% due to adverse currency effects. H1 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe 2% (Q2: +7%), Eastern Europe +8% (Q2: -4%), Asia +4% (Q2: +3%). The group’s operating margin was up +50bp in organic terms and contracted by 10bp on a reported basis due to higher central costs linked to investments behind EURO 2016. Operating profit grew 8% organically. The group maintains its FY guidance: low single-digit operating profit growth and financial leverage reduction.
11 May 16
Carlsberg released its Q1 update. Organic volumes contracted by 2% (cons. -1.1%). Organic revenue was up +2% (cons. 1.3%). Price/mix stood at 4%. On reported figures, revenue was down -3% (FX: -5%). Q1 beer volumes by region: Western Europe -7% (cons. -4.1%), Eastern Europe +6% (cons. -2.5%), Asia -1% (cons. +1%). Q1 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe -3% (cons. -2.6%), Eastern Europe +20% (cons. +10%), Asia +5% (cons. +4.6%). The group maintains its FY guidance of organic operating profit growth in a low single-digit.
SAIL ’22 strategy
16 Mar 16
Carlsberg presented its SAIL ’22 strategy. The group aims to deliver a continuous organic operating profit growth and continuous improvement in the ROIC. On the financial side, the group is targeting a net interest-bearing debt/EBITDA ratio of less than 2.0x and increasing its dividend payout ratio to 50% of the adjusted net result. The excess cash will be distributed to shareholders via share buy-backs or extraordinary dividends.
Strategic review to be announced on 16 March. Fingers crossed.
10 Feb 16
Carlsberg reported its Q4 & FY results. In Q4, organic beer volumes were down 4% (consensus -2.7%) whereas the net revenue grew organically by +5% (cons +1.8%). Price/mix stood at +6%. Q4 organic beer volume by region: Western Europe -2% (consensus -0.5%), Eastern Europe -9% (cons -8%), Asia -1% (cons +2%). Q4 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe +2% (cons -0.8%), Eastern Europe +12% (cons +5.9%), Asia +3% (cons +4.6%). For the full year, organic beer volumes were down 4% whereas the organic net revenue rose +2%. On reported figures, net revenue increased +1% whereas the operating margin was down 140bp to 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was down to DKK-2,926m. The proposed dividend is DKK9.00. For FY16, the group expects the developments in its major beer markets to be in line with 2015: Europe flat with some positive impact from UEFA Euro 2016 (Carlsberg is a global sponsor). South-East Asia should perform well whereas Eastern Europe should remain under pressure. Consequently, Carlsberg expects in FY16 to deliver low single-digit percentage organic operating profit growth and reduce financial leverage. The revised strategy, SAIL’22, will be announced on 16 March.
Q3 net profit squeezed painfully by impairment charges; announces 15% workforce cut
12 Nov 15
Carlsberg released its Q3 update. Organic net revenue grew by 3% (cons. +1.7%). Organic beer volume was down by 3% (cons. -3.2%) whereas price/mix was up 4%. On a reported basis, net revenue was up +1% (FX -3% due to Russia and Ukraine, net acquisitions +1%). OG net revenue by region: Western Europe 2% (cons. 0.8%), Eastern Europe 6% (cons. 0.8%) and Asia 2% (cons. 6%). OG beer volume by region: Western Europe 2% (cons. 0%), Eastern Europe -12% (cons. -12.5%) and Asia 0% (cons. +2%). The Q3 operating margin has improved by 20bp but the company recorded a DKK4.5bn loss for the period, linked to one-off impairments in Russia and China as well as restructuring charges (DKK7.6bn). After 9M, the group's OG net revenue is +1%, OG beer volumes are down 4%, whereas the operating margin is down by 90bp. In Q3, the Carlsberg brand declined by 2% due to a weaker Eastern and Western Europe as well as the strong World Cup comparisons from last year. Following a reclassification of some one-off items in the UK and restructuring costs in Q4, the company expects that the FY organic operating profit will be decline by a high single-digit (-3% after 9M15).
The Monthly January 2017
09 Jan 17
Despite all the hullaballoo of the Brexit vote and the subsequent election of Donald Trump as the next US President, the UK stock market prospered last year, especially in the latter few months of 2016. The combination of a depreciating currency – making $ earnings more valuable in relative terms - and the Trump emphasis on infrastructure expenditure drove the stock market higher
FY16 pre-close +ve surprise: Raising FY16, 17, 18 PBT c.1%, 4% and 6%
12 Jan 17
Today’s slightly better-than-expected FY16 pre-close trading statement prompts us to raise our FY16 PBT estimate by c.1%, reflecting the combination of (1) growth in several of HFG’s key markets, (2) strong overall operating performance, and (3) favourable fx translational benefits (recalling that 62% of FY15 sales were ex-UK). To reflect the positive profit contribution impact of the Portuguese j/v agreement signed on January 4th, the j/v income line is boosted by €1.5m (c.£1.3m) and €2.5m (c.£2.2m) in FY17 and FY18 respectively, representing upgrades of c.4% and c.6%. Once operating at full capacity utilisation, the j/v could well add €3m (c.£2.6m) in FY19. To reflect (1) our increased FY16-FY18 forecasts, (2) current peer EV/EBITDA valuation multiples, and (3) our view that HFG now deserves to trade at a premium to the peer group in view of its impressively strong financial track record (i.e. FY06-FY16 since IPO) for organic and investment-led profitable growth, combined with an array of emerging, highly promising initiatives (see our note “Start of a new chapter of growth” published on October 4th) to expand the scale and scope of HFG’s core business, we raise our TP to 805p (previously 755p). Maintain BUY.
10 for 17
09 Jan 17
As always at the start of a year, there are significant uncertainties about the year ahead but I think in 2017, the level of uncertainly has decisively moved up a gear. In fact, a leading economist at the LSE, Ethan Ilzetzki, was recently quoted as saying “I view the current global economic environment as the most uncertain in modern history”. Wow.
Proud as a Peacock
21 Dec 16
Greencore’s (GNC LN, BUY, 310p) Chief Financial Officer Eoin Tonge presented to Whitman Howard’s equity salesforce yesterday, 20th December 2016. Key messages included a positive outlook for UK Food to Go, sustained momentum within the incumbent US business – notable accounts include 7-Eleven and Starbucks – and positive expectations for the newly acquired Peacock Foods. The company appears well placed to perform positively in FY2017
Strengthening the mix – 2016 trading update
11 Jan 17
Stock Spirits (STCK LN, BUY, T/P 240p) released a full year 2016 trading statement this morning. The company announced overall trading in the second half of 2016, and implicitly the full year, was in line with expectations. Whitman Howard’s own 2016 forecasts are for €264m revenue €50m EBITDA. The company is due to release preliminary results on 8 th March 2017.
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.