Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on CARLSBERG AS-B. We currently have 8 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Weak Q4;FY17 will be a year of delivery for “Funding the Journey”
08 Feb 17
Carlsberg’s Q4 update: organic sales were down 2% (cons. +1.3%) with volumes down 5% (cons. -2.8%) and +3% price/mix. On a reported basis, revenue was down 6% (FX: -2%). OG net revenue by region: Western Europe -3% (cons. 0.7%), Eastern Europe -4% (cons. 1.2%) and Asia 4% (cons. 1.6%). OG beer volume by region: Western Europe -5% (cons. -2%), Eastern Europe -10% (cons. -3.6%, impacted by the PET 1.5l+ ban) and Asia -2% (cons. -1.9%). On a FY basis, sales progressed organically by +2% and were down 4% on reported figures. The group’s beer volumes were down 2% (impacted by restructuring costs in Russia and China, as well as a reduction in margin-dilutive contracts in Western Europe). The operating profit was up +5% organically. The operating margin was up +30bp on reported figures. For FY17, Carlsberg expects to deliver mid single-digit organic operating profit growth and a further reduction in financial leverage. By region, the group expects improving margins and operating profit in Western Europe, continuing top-line and earnings growth in Asia and growing operating profit organically in Eastern Europe. FX should also provide some tailwinds. The proposed dividend is DKK10.00 per share, up from DKK9.00 a year earlier.
Q3 is a mixed bag; upgrade of its FY guidnace
09 Nov 16
Q3 update: Organic sales were up +1% (cons. +1.5%) with flat volumes (cons. -1.8%) and +1% price/mix. On a reported basis, revenue was down 4% (FX: -4%). OG net revenue by region: Western Europe -4% (cons. 0%, impacted by destocking), Eastern Europe 16% (cons. 4.9%) and Asia 2% (cons. 3.5%). OG beer volume by region: Western Europe -4% (cons. -3%), Eastern Europe +10% (cons. 0%) and Asia -1% (cons. -2.3%). The company upgraded its FY guidance: organic operating growth should be up c. 5% (previously low-single digit) and a FX translation impact of DKK-550m (vs.DKK-600m previously).
H1: Funding the Journey improves profitability but FX drags down the figures
17 Aug 16
Carlsberg’s H1 update: organic revenue was up 4% (cons. +3.2%, Q2: 6%). Volumes were down 1% (cons. -0.8%), price/mix stood at 5%. On a reported basis revenue was down 4% due to adverse currency effects. H1 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe 2% (Q2: +7%), Eastern Europe +8% (Q2: -4%), Asia +4% (Q2: +3%). The group’s operating margin was up +50bp in organic terms and contracted by 10bp on a reported basis due to higher central costs linked to investments behind EURO 2016. Operating profit grew 8% organically. The group maintains its FY guidance: low single-digit operating profit growth and financial leverage reduction.
11 May 16
Carlsberg released its Q1 update. Organic volumes contracted by 2% (cons. -1.1%). Organic revenue was up +2% (cons. 1.3%). Price/mix stood at 4%. On reported figures, revenue was down -3% (FX: -5%). Q1 beer volumes by region: Western Europe -7% (cons. -4.1%), Eastern Europe +6% (cons. -2.5%), Asia -1% (cons. +1%). Q1 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe -3% (cons. -2.6%), Eastern Europe +20% (cons. +10%), Asia +5% (cons. +4.6%). The group maintains its FY guidance of organic operating profit growth in a low single-digit.
SAIL ’22 strategy
16 Mar 16
Carlsberg presented its SAIL ’22 strategy. The group aims to deliver a continuous organic operating profit growth and continuous improvement in the ROIC. On the financial side, the group is targeting a net interest-bearing debt/EBITDA ratio of less than 2.0x and increasing its dividend payout ratio to 50% of the adjusted net result. The excess cash will be distributed to shareholders via share buy-backs or extraordinary dividends.
Strategic review to be announced on 16 March. Fingers crossed.
10 Feb 16
Carlsberg reported its Q4 & FY results. In Q4, organic beer volumes were down 4% (consensus -2.7%) whereas the net revenue grew organically by +5% (cons +1.8%). Price/mix stood at +6%. Q4 organic beer volume by region: Western Europe -2% (consensus -0.5%), Eastern Europe -9% (cons -8%), Asia -1% (cons +2%). Q4 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe +2% (cons -0.8%), Eastern Europe +12% (cons +5.9%), Asia +3% (cons +4.6%). For the full year, organic beer volumes were down 4% whereas the organic net revenue rose +2%. On reported figures, net revenue increased +1% whereas the operating margin was down 140bp to 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was down to DKK-2,926m. The proposed dividend is DKK9.00. For FY16, the group expects the developments in its major beer markets to be in line with 2015: Europe flat with some positive impact from UEFA Euro 2016 (Carlsberg is a global sponsor). South-East Asia should perform well whereas Eastern Europe should remain under pressure. Consequently, Carlsberg expects in FY16 to deliver low single-digit percentage organic operating profit growth and reduce financial leverage. The revised strategy, SAIL’22, will be announced on 16 March.
20 Apr 17
Although the last two months have seen a broadly neutral performance from the UK healthcare sector compared to a significantly more volatile 6 months prior, we continue to expect macro-events and increased geo-political risk to result in an overall neutral performance from the sector over the next period. However, company specific news is likely to drive a strong outperformance from selected mid-market companies. We retain our neutral sector stance whilst highlighting those we expect to outperform.
03 Apr 17
After much heralding, MIFID II is finally beginning to have an impact on the business of investment research, though its true ramifications might take years to be seen. The role of analyst research is widely misunderstood. It is not all about the conclusion: the rating and price target. The real content of research is about what is discounted in the current share price and what assumptions would produce different outcomes.
Positioned to perform
08 Mar 17
Stock Spirits (STCK LN, BUY, T/P 240p) preliminary 2016 results were in line with expectations, reconfirming their 11th January 2017 trading statement. Adjusted EBITDA was €51.5m compared with Bloomberg consensus and Whitman Howard estimates of €50.0m. The company are hosting an analyst presentation at 9.00am.
Undevilish detail implies more upside to come
09 Mar 17
While Stock Spirits (STCK LN, BUY, T/P 240p) appears in better shape than for some time, further improvements seem likely. Polish vodka market conditions remain competitive. But in our view attention to detail suggests the company is implementing the right brand strategy, appropriate pricing architecture and upgraded its sales function – hence, more upside to come. BUY
Q1 backs FY guidance
20 Apr 17
Q1 update: sales were up 2.3% (cons. 2%) with RIG at 1.3% and pricing of 1%. On a reported basis, sales were up 0.4% (FX:-0.4%, net M&A -1.5%). OG by division: the Americas +0.4% (cons. +2.5%, negative RIG), EMENA +1.7% (cons. +0.5%, RIG driven), AOA 4.5% (cons. +2.5%, RIG and pricing driven), Waters +3.1% (cons. 3.5%, RIG driven), Nestle Nutrition +1.1% (cons. +0.9%, pricing driven), Other Businesses +5.8% (cons. 2.4%, RIG driven). The group confirmed its FY guidance.