Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on CARLSBERG AS-B. We currently have 8 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Weak Q4;FY17 will be a year of delivery for “Funding the Journey”
08 Feb 17
Carlsberg’s Q4 update: organic sales were down 2% (cons. +1.3%) with volumes down 5% (cons. -2.8%) and +3% price/mix. On a reported basis, revenue was down 6% (FX: -2%). OG net revenue by region: Western Europe -3% (cons. 0.7%), Eastern Europe -4% (cons. 1.2%) and Asia 4% (cons. 1.6%). OG beer volume by region: Western Europe -5% (cons. -2%), Eastern Europe -10% (cons. -3.6%, impacted by the PET 1.5l+ ban) and Asia -2% (cons. -1.9%). On a FY basis, sales progressed organically by +2% and were down 4% on reported figures. The group’s beer volumes were down 2% (impacted by restructuring costs in Russia and China, as well as a reduction in margin-dilutive contracts in Western Europe). The operating profit was up +5% organically. The operating margin was up +30bp on reported figures. For FY17, Carlsberg expects to deliver mid single-digit organic operating profit growth and a further reduction in financial leverage. By region, the group expects improving margins and operating profit in Western Europe, continuing top-line and earnings growth in Asia and growing operating profit organically in Eastern Europe. FX should also provide some tailwinds. The proposed dividend is DKK10.00 per share, up from DKK9.00 a year earlier.
Q3 is a mixed bag; upgrade of its FY guidnace
09 Nov 16
Q3 update: Organic sales were up +1% (cons. +1.5%) with flat volumes (cons. -1.8%) and +1% price/mix. On a reported basis, revenue was down 4% (FX: -4%). OG net revenue by region: Western Europe -4% (cons. 0%, impacted by destocking), Eastern Europe 16% (cons. 4.9%) and Asia 2% (cons. 3.5%). OG beer volume by region: Western Europe -4% (cons. -3%), Eastern Europe +10% (cons. 0%) and Asia -1% (cons. -2.3%). The company upgraded its FY guidance: organic operating growth should be up c. 5% (previously low-single digit) and a FX translation impact of DKK-550m (vs.DKK-600m previously).
H1: Funding the Journey improves profitability but FX drags down the figures
17 Aug 16
Carlsberg’s H1 update: organic revenue was up 4% (cons. +3.2%, Q2: 6%). Volumes were down 1% (cons. -0.8%), price/mix stood at 5%. On a reported basis revenue was down 4% due to adverse currency effects. H1 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe 2% (Q2: +7%), Eastern Europe +8% (Q2: -4%), Asia +4% (Q2: +3%). The group’s operating margin was up +50bp in organic terms and contracted by 10bp on a reported basis due to higher central costs linked to investments behind EURO 2016. Operating profit grew 8% organically. The group maintains its FY guidance: low single-digit operating profit growth and financial leverage reduction.
11 May 16
Carlsberg released its Q1 update. Organic volumes contracted by 2% (cons. -1.1%). Organic revenue was up +2% (cons. 1.3%). Price/mix stood at 4%. On reported figures, revenue was down -3% (FX: -5%). Q1 beer volumes by region: Western Europe -7% (cons. -4.1%), Eastern Europe +6% (cons. -2.5%), Asia -1% (cons. +1%). Q1 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe -3% (cons. -2.6%), Eastern Europe +20% (cons. +10%), Asia +5% (cons. +4.6%). The group maintains its FY guidance of organic operating profit growth in a low single-digit.
SAIL ’22 strategy
16 Mar 16
Carlsberg presented its SAIL ’22 strategy. The group aims to deliver a continuous organic operating profit growth and continuous improvement in the ROIC. On the financial side, the group is targeting a net interest-bearing debt/EBITDA ratio of less than 2.0x and increasing its dividend payout ratio to 50% of the adjusted net result. The excess cash will be distributed to shareholders via share buy-backs or extraordinary dividends.
Strategic review to be announced on 16 March. Fingers crossed.
10 Feb 16
Carlsberg reported its Q4 & FY results. In Q4, organic beer volumes were down 4% (consensus -2.7%) whereas the net revenue grew organically by +5% (cons +1.8%). Price/mix stood at +6%. Q4 organic beer volume by region: Western Europe -2% (consensus -0.5%), Eastern Europe -9% (cons -8%), Asia -1% (cons +2%). Q4 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe +2% (cons -0.8%), Eastern Europe +12% (cons +5.9%), Asia +3% (cons +4.6%). For the full year, organic beer volumes were down 4% whereas the organic net revenue rose +2%. On reported figures, net revenue increased +1% whereas the operating margin was down 140bp to 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was down to DKK-2,926m. The proposed dividend is DKK9.00. For FY16, the group expects the developments in its major beer markets to be in line with 2015: Europe flat with some positive impact from UEFA Euro 2016 (Carlsberg is a global sponsor). South-East Asia should perform well whereas Eastern Europe should remain under pressure. Consequently, Carlsberg expects in FY16 to deliver low single-digit percentage organic operating profit growth and reduce financial leverage. The revised strategy, SAIL’22, will be announced on 16 March.
13 Feb 17
Middlesbrough-based pawnbroker Ramsdens Holdings is set to join AIM on 15 February. Its growth is not coming from its core business but from providing foreign currency, pre-paid travel cards and international payments. The strategy is to increase the group’s online activities and grow the number of branches. In the year to March 2016, group revenues improved from £29.2m to £30m. The accounts of the main subsidiary show that foreign-currency margin rose from £5.36m to £7.59m. This contributes 35% of group gross profit. By contrast, the core business of pawnbroking, precious metal purchases and retail sales fell from £21.3m to £19.8m. Revenues from other financial services were flat at £2.6m. Ramsdens has 127 sites and last year it made an operating profit of £3.19m. In the six months to September 2016, revenues increased from £16.2m to £18.4m and operating profit improved from £2.81m to £3.48m. The placing will raise £15.6m at 86p a share, valuing the company at £26.5m. NorthEdge Capital, which backed a buyout in September 2014, will receive just over £10m from share sales. The NorthEdge stake will fall from 75.6% to 30.7%. The other £5m will go to the company and be used to repay the remaining loan notes and the costs of the flotation. By the end of March 2016, there were still £4m of loan notes outstanding to NorthEdge, with £4.86m paid off during the previous year.
New CEO resets targets: cost savings ahead, mid single-digit top-line target by 2020
16 Feb 17
Nestle’s FY and Q4 update: In Q4, sales grew organically +2.9% (weaker than 3.5% expected). In Q4, Zone Americas, EMENA and Others slowed down compared to the previous quarter. Zone AOA (+4.4%), Waters (+5.4%) and Nestle Nutrition performed better than in Q3. On a FY basis, organic sales are up +3.2% (cons. 3.4%) with RIG +2.4% and pricing of 0.8%. On reported figures, sales are up +0.8 (FX: -1.6%). The trading operating margin is up 30bp on constant FX and +20bp on reported figures (in line with consensus). FY17 outlook: top-line growth of 2-4%, stable operating margin as a result of a considerable increase in restructuring costs to drive future profitability. EPS is expected to rise at constant FX and capital efficiency is also expected to rise. For the mid-term, Nestlé targets mid single-digit top-line growth and 200bp in structural cost savings by 2020. The proposed dividend is CHF2.30 (vs. CHF2.25 last year).
Foundations laid; building starts
15 Feb 17
Last week RM posted a reassuring set of prelims (adj. PBT 4% ahead) that showed continued progress within RM Education (+6% EBIT gr’th) and RM Results (+22% EBIT gr’th) – achievements that shouldn’t be overshadowed by the challenging (but temporary) external market, which is weighing on RM Resources (-9% EBIT). Indeed, combined with Connect Education & Care, we are bullish on the division’s long-term prospects, and as such we raise our target price to 207p and retain our Buy recommendation.
Small Cap Breakfast
24 Jan 17
Impact healthcare REIT— Intends to float on the main market. Seeks to raise £160m to acquire a portfolio of up to 58 care homes. Expected Admission 7 March. Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas—TSX-V listed oil and gas exploration has announced its intention to float on AIM. Assets in Guyana and Namibia. Proposed £2m-£3m fundraise. Diversified Gas & Oil—According to LSE website first day of trading on AIM now expected for 30 January.