Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on CARLSBERG AS-B. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Q3 is a mixed bag; upgrade of its FY guidnace
09 Nov 16
Q3 update: Organic sales were up +1% (cons. +1.5%) with flat volumes (cons. -1.8%) and +1% price/mix. On a reported basis, revenue was down 4% (FX: -4%). OG net revenue by region: Western Europe -4% (cons. 0%, impacted by destocking), Eastern Europe 16% (cons. 4.9%) and Asia 2% (cons. 3.5%). OG beer volume by region: Western Europe -4% (cons. -3%), Eastern Europe +10% (cons. 0%) and Asia -1% (cons. -2.3%). The company upgraded its FY guidance: organic operating growth should be up c. 5% (previously low-single digit) and a FX translation impact of DKK-550m (vs.DKK-600m previously).
H1: Funding the Journey improves profitability but FX drags down the figures
17 Aug 16
Carlsberg’s H1 update: organic revenue was up 4% (cons. +3.2%, Q2: 6%). Volumes were down 1% (cons. -0.8%), price/mix stood at 5%. On a reported basis revenue was down 4% due to adverse currency effects. H1 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe 2% (Q2: +7%), Eastern Europe +8% (Q2: -4%), Asia +4% (Q2: +3%). The group’s operating margin was up +50bp in organic terms and contracted by 10bp on a reported basis due to higher central costs linked to investments behind EURO 2016. Operating profit grew 8% organically. The group maintains its FY guidance: low single-digit operating profit growth and financial leverage reduction.
11 May 16
Carlsberg released its Q1 update. Organic volumes contracted by 2% (cons. -1.1%). Organic revenue was up +2% (cons. 1.3%). Price/mix stood at 4%. On reported figures, revenue was down -3% (FX: -5%). Q1 beer volumes by region: Western Europe -7% (cons. -4.1%), Eastern Europe +6% (cons. -2.5%), Asia -1% (cons. +1%). Q1 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe -3% (cons. -2.6%), Eastern Europe +20% (cons. +10%), Asia +5% (cons. +4.6%). The group maintains its FY guidance of organic operating profit growth in a low single-digit.
SAIL ’22 strategy
16 Mar 16
Carlsberg presented its SAIL ’22 strategy. The group aims to deliver a continuous organic operating profit growth and continuous improvement in the ROIC. On the financial side, the group is targeting a net interest-bearing debt/EBITDA ratio of less than 2.0x and increasing its dividend payout ratio to 50% of the adjusted net result. The excess cash will be distributed to shareholders via share buy-backs or extraordinary dividends.
Strategic review to be announced on 16 March. Fingers crossed.
10 Feb 16
Carlsberg reported its Q4 & FY results. In Q4, organic beer volumes were down 4% (consensus -2.7%) whereas the net revenue grew organically by +5% (cons +1.8%). Price/mix stood at +6%. Q4 organic beer volume by region: Western Europe -2% (consensus -0.5%), Eastern Europe -9% (cons -8%), Asia -1% (cons +2%). Q4 organic net revenue by region: Western Europe +2% (cons -0.8%), Eastern Europe +12% (cons +5.9%), Asia +3% (cons +4.6%). For the full year, organic beer volumes were down 4% whereas the organic net revenue rose +2%. On reported figures, net revenue increased +1% whereas the operating margin was down 140bp to 12.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was down to DKK-2,926m. The proposed dividend is DKK9.00. For FY16, the group expects the developments in its major beer markets to be in line with 2015: Europe flat with some positive impact from UEFA Euro 2016 (Carlsberg is a global sponsor). South-East Asia should perform well whereas Eastern Europe should remain under pressure. Consequently, Carlsberg expects in FY16 to deliver low single-digit percentage organic operating profit growth and reduce financial leverage. The revised strategy, SAIL’22, will be announced on 16 March.
Q3 net profit squeezed painfully by impairment charges; announces 15% workforce cut
12 Nov 15
Carlsberg released its Q3 update. Organic net revenue grew by 3% (cons. +1.7%). Organic beer volume was down by 3% (cons. -3.2%) whereas price/mix was up 4%. On a reported basis, net revenue was up +1% (FX -3% due to Russia and Ukraine, net acquisitions +1%). OG net revenue by region: Western Europe 2% (cons. 0.8%), Eastern Europe 6% (cons. 0.8%) and Asia 2% (cons. 6%). OG beer volume by region: Western Europe 2% (cons. 0%), Eastern Europe -12% (cons. -12.5%) and Asia 0% (cons. +2%). The Q3 operating margin has improved by 20bp but the company recorded a DKK4.5bn loss for the period, linked to one-off impairments in Russia and China as well as restructuring charges (DKK7.6bn). After 9M, the group's OG net revenue is +1%, OG beer volumes are down 4%, whereas the operating margin is down by 90bp. In Q3, the Carlsberg brand declined by 2% due to a weaker Eastern and Western Europe as well as the strong World Cup comparisons from last year. Following a reclassification of some one-off items in the UK and restructuring costs in Q4, the company expects that the FY organic operating profit will be decline by a high single-digit (-3% after 9M15).
Increasing price target from 815p to 835p
08 Dec 16
Following our 2 November 2016 note “The valuation genie is out of the bottle”, a great deal of new information has been disclosed about MPE (particularly on the non-core assets), while the company has re-based the dividend, announced a special dividend and announced the sale of major associate PT Agro Muko for US$100m. We now take all this new information into account and update our forecasts accordingly. As a result, we are increasing our price target from 815p/share to 835p/share.
New packing facility; Highly significant for underpinning future growth
06 Dec 16
HFG has announced plans to expand its packing capability in Australia, by constructing (at an expected investment cost of A$115m financed through bank facilities) a new meat processing facility in Queensland, in order to supply Woolworths, the leading grocery retailer in Australia. This is a highly significant development as the new Queensland plant, alongside HFG’s two existing dedicated retail packed meat facilities in Melbourne and Bunbury (both operated as a joint venture with Woolworths) should mean that HFG supplies the bulk of Woolworth’s c.1,000 stores with their red meat needs over time. In short, this development should underpin growth at HFG for many years to come from 2020 onwards, which, in turn, should result in a higher and more stable earnings stream over time, supporting a continued rerating of HFG’s valuation multiple, in our view. We reiterate our BUY.
06 Dec 16
600 Group* (SIXH): Interim results: order book showing signs of improvement (CORP) | Real Good Food* (RGD): Commodity volatility impacts numbers (CORP) | Minds + Machines* (MMX): .vip goes live in China (CORP | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Interims (CORP) | iomart* (IOM): Quality business as usual (CORP) | Fulcrum (FCRM): Upgrades continue (BUY)
Using their loaf
30 Nov 16
Finsbury Foods has been transformed by a series of acquisitions that has contributed to revenue and earnings nearly doubling over the last three years. Record levels of capital investment continue to improve the Group’s competitive position, whilst exposure to growth segments of the food market is helping likefor-likes. Profit growth is expected to slow in the current year in the absence of acquisitions but underlying trading remains resilient despite some cost headwinds, whilst debt reduction is accelerating. The rating is undemanding and the recent share price weakness has created a buying opportunity.
Small Cap Breakfast
07 Dec 16
Creo Medical group—Schedule 1 update.. £20m raise. Expected market cap £61.2m, admission expected 9 December. ECSC—Schedule 1 from provider of cyber security services. Raising £5m. Vendor sale £0.8m. Target date 14 Dec. Expected market cap £15m. RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m