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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on H LUNDBECK A S. We currently have 8 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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H LUNDBECK A S
H LUNDBECK A S
Solid FY 17 guidance; confirms shelving of Idalopirdine
20 Feb 17
Lundbeck reported robust Q4 and FY 16 results, largely in line with our estimates. NB all sales numbers in LC, unless specified otherwise. Q4 16 sales were up 11% to DKK4.2bn (12% in DKK), mainly driven by five key products – Rexulti (+360%), Northera (+62%), Brintellix/Trintellix (+57%), Abilify Maintena (+47%) and Onfi (+21%). Core EBIT reached DKK1bn from DKK73m in Q4 15 (the margin increased c.22ppt to 24%), primarily benefiting from the positive product mix and the ongoing restructuring programme. For the full year, sales grew 7% to DKK15.6bn (vs. our estimate of DKK15.7bn), while core EBIT jumped 311% to DKK3.5bn (vs. our expectation of DKK3.4bn). Net profit, at DKK1.2bn, came in above our estimate of DKK1.1bn, mainly on account of a lower-than-expected tax rate (due to the recognition of Northera’s R&D tax credits by the US authorities). Management gave a solid outlook for FY 17 – revenue of DKK16.3-17.1bn (vs. our earlier estimate of DKK16.8bn) and EBIT of DKK3.4-3.8bn in LC (vs. our previous estimate of DKK3.4bn); the broad range is to take into consideration the uncertainty regarding the extent of the generic threat to Sabril. As anticipated, the company has reinstated the dividend (DKK2.45 per share for FY 16) after a pause of two years.
Another guidance upgrade
10 Nov 16
Lundbeck continued on its solid transformation journey with another consensus-beating quarter. Q3 16 total revenue was up 8% yoy to DKK3.9bn (+6% in LC), primarily driven by five key products (all in LC) – Rexulti (+324%), Northera (+142%), Brintellix/Trintellix (+65%), Abilify Maintena (+51%) and Onfi (+37%). These were more than able to cushion the negative impact stemming from the generic erosion of Xenazine (-38%) and the loss of sales on Azilect (-73%) due to the returning of the European rights to Teva. Profitability came in even better, with core EBIT showing a growth of 134% to DKK988m (the margin improved by c.13ppt to c.25%), mainly benefiting from the ongoing restructuring programme and positive product mix. Management again raised its full-year outlook at CER (third time this year) – while revenue guidance was increased to DKK15.3-15.7bn from an earlier DKK14.6-15bn, the EBIT outlook was upped to DKK2.1-2.3bn from a previous DKK1.5-1.7bn.
Another Alzheimer's drug bites the dust
26 Sep 16
One of Lundbeck’s key pipeline drugs, Idalopirdine, for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease (being developed in collaboration with Otsuka) flunked in a phase III study called STARSHINE. The drug failed to meet both primary and secondary end-points in either of the two doses, sending the shares down by c.15% on last Friday (23 September 2016). This was the first of the three phase III trials (data from the remaining trials is expected in Q1 17). The news had a ripple effect on Axovant Sciences (stock price down c.12%), which is developing a similar type (5-HT6 receptor antagonist) of Alzheimer’s drug.
Excellent quarter; second successive guidance upgrade this year
30 Aug 16
Lundbeck reported solid Q2 16 numbers, with both top line and bottom line coming in ahead of both consensus and our estimates. Revenue increased 3% yoy to DKK3.8bn (+5% at LC), driven by the continued outperformance of five key products (all at LC) – Abilify Maintena (+82%), Brintellix/Trintellix (+82%), Northera (+143%), Onfi (+46%) and Rexulti (sales of DKK193m), which more than offset the generic erosion of Xenazine (-38%) and the negative impact from the return of Azilect’s rights in Europe and certain other countries to Teva (-78%; Lundbeck now receives only royalties in these countries). Core EBIT increased 438% to DKK726m (the margin improved c.15.6ppt to 19.4%), led by benefits from the restructuring programme and the improving product mix. Net income came in at DKK232m, compared with a loss of DKK3.9bn in Q2 15, which was negatively impacted by the recognition of impairment losses of DKK4.8bn (primarily related to Rexulti). Buoyed by these results, management upgraded (for the second time this year) its FY 16 revenue guidance to DKK14.6-15bn (from an earlier DKK14.2-14.6bn) and the EBIT outlook to DKK1.5-1.7bn (from the previous DKK1.3-1.5bn).
Strong Q4 as Brintellix gets closer to cognition
07 Mar 16
Q4 15 ahead of expectations Lundbeck’s core numbers for Q4 15 and FY 15 came in ahead of market expectations as well as its own guidance. Sales for the quarter grew 7% at LC and 15% in DKK to c.DKK3.7bn (against our expectation of c.DKK3.3bn), fuelled by strong growth in five key products (combined up 142%) as well as healthy forex benefits, offset to some extent by the generic erosion of Cipralex (Europe and Canada) and Ebixa (Europe). The key development, however, was on the profitability front, where excellent cost control in administration and R&D (thanks to restructuring efforts) allowed the company to report higher-than-expected core EBIT of DKK73m. For the full year, while sales were flat at LC (+8% in DKK) to DKK14.6bn (vs. the company’s guidance of DKK14bn), core EBIT declined 31% to DKK847m (vs. the company guidance of DKK700m). At the reported level, EBIT and net profit came in slightly below our expectations at a loss of DKK6.8bn and DKK5.7bn, respectively, mainly on account of the impairment/reclassification of products’ rights charges of c.DKK5.7bn (mainly related to Rexulti and Abilify Maintena) and the restructuring expenses of c.DKK1.1bn recognised during the year. For FY 16, management sees (at LC) revenue of DKK13.8-14.2bn and EBIT of DKK1-1.2bn. This factors in the loss of Azilect sales in Europe (FY 15: DKK1.3bn) as it returned rights back to Teva. While there will be no dividend pay-out for FY 15, the company has revised its dividend pay-out range from 25-35% to 30-40%. It has also announced its long-term EBIT margin target of 25% (three to five years). It has doubled its executive management team by adding three new members – Lars Bang, Staffan Schüberg and Jacob Tolstrup.
Early signs of restructuring benefits
25 Dec 15
In the aftermath of the massive restructuring programme announced at the time of Q2 15 earnings release, Lundbeck reported strong Q3 numbers, with both revenue and profitability coming in ahead of market expectations. Total revenue was up 7% yoy at LC to DKK3.7bn, driven by (all at LC) Northera (+696%), Abilify Maintena (+182%), Brintellix (+171%), Onfi (+81%), Sabril (+13%) and Xenazine (+7%), along with the divestment gain of DKK113m related to sale of its stake in Naurex, offset to some extent by the continued generic erosion of Cipralex (-46%) in Europe and Canada, and Ebixa in Europe. Forex contributed 8ppts, pulling the reported growth to 15%. Strong top-line growth coupled with the early benefits of the restructuring plan, led to 42% growth in the core EBIT to DKK423m (margin improved 218bp). However, at the reported level, it posted a loss of DKK1.5bn and DKK1.3bn, at the EBIT and net profit level, respectively, mainly due to one-off expenses of the restructuring charge of DKK1.1bn and an impairment charge of DKK671m.
20 Apr 17
Although the last two months have seen a broadly neutral performance from the UK healthcare sector compared to a significantly more volatile 6 months prior, we continue to expect macro-events and increased geo-political risk to result in an overall neutral performance from the sector over the next period. However, company specific news is likely to drive a strong outperformance from selected mid-market companies. We retain our neutral sector stance whilst highlighting those we expect to outperform.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 24-04-2017
24 Apr 17
First Derivatives (FDP LN) FY slightly ahead as strong trading momentum continues | Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL LN) A potentially exciting corporate development | mporium Group (MPM LN) 2016 results: course set for exciting 2017 | Vectura Group (VEC LN) VR315 risk outweighs longer-term potential
Positive top-line results in first iclaprim phase III clinical trial (REVIVE-1)
18 Apr 17
Motif Bio (LSE: MTFB, NASDAQ: MTFB), a late clinical stage antibiotic development company, announced positive results this morning in the first of its two iclaprim phase III clinical trials, REVIVE-1, comparing iclaprim to vancomycin in the treatment of acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI). Iclaprim, a next-generation antibiotic targeting an underutilised mechanism of action which causes rapid killing of bacteria, is being developed for the treatment of serious and life threatening bacterial infections. On the key primary endpoint in the study, early clinical response at 48-72 hours after drug treatment began, 80.9% of patients on iclaprim achieved a positive response compared to 81.0% of patients on vancomycin, well within the 10% non-inferiority margin required by the FDA. Iclaprim was also shown to be safe and well-tolerated compared to vancomycin. With these positive results from REVIVE-1 we have increased the probability of success for the iclaprim development program from 65% to 75% raising our risk-adjusted NPV for Motif Bio to almost £240m or 122p per share (previously £210m and 107p per share).
N+1 Singer - Sinclair Pharma - EBITDA upgrade for 2017, but lower TP due to warranty claim and costs
19 Apr 17
We have updated product-level forecasts and included the £10m SVB debt facility and £5m warranty claim settlement with Alliance Pharma in our forecasts. The 6.3% upgrade to our FY2017 sales estimate (from £46.0m to £48.9m) brings expected EBITDA profitability forward by one year (to FY2017 from FY2018). We remain positive on the ongoing rollout of Silhouette Instalift® in particular and retain our Buy recommendation. However, higher expected sales & marketing costs and the warranty claim weigh on our valuation: we downgrade our target price from 42p to 37p.
24 Apr 17
Lok’nStore* (LOK): Growth supported by a strong balance sheet (CORP) | Mortice* (MORT): UK acquisition (CORP) | Avacta* (AVCT): Another milestone – 1st non-therapeutics licence (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDF): Trading update and Q3 results (BUY) | Nasstar* (NASA): Growth and margin focus (CORP)