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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on H LUNDBECK A S. We currently have 8 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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H LUNDBECK A S
H LUNDBECK A S
Solid FY 17 guidance; confirms shelving of Idalopirdine
20 Feb 17
Lundbeck reported robust Q4 and FY 16 results, largely in line with our estimates. NB all sales numbers in LC, unless specified otherwise. Q4 16 sales were up 11% to DKK4.2bn (12% in DKK), mainly driven by five key products – Rexulti (+360%), Northera (+62%), Brintellix/Trintellix (+57%), Abilify Maintena (+47%) and Onfi (+21%). Core EBIT reached DKK1bn from DKK73m in Q4 15 (the margin increased c.22ppt to 24%), primarily benefiting from the positive product mix and the ongoing restructuring programme. For the full year, sales grew 7% to DKK15.6bn (vs. our estimate of DKK15.7bn), while core EBIT jumped 311% to DKK3.5bn (vs. our expectation of DKK3.4bn). Net profit, at DKK1.2bn, came in above our estimate of DKK1.1bn, mainly on account of a lower-than-expected tax rate (due to the recognition of Northera’s R&D tax credits by the US authorities). Management gave a solid outlook for FY 17 – revenue of DKK16.3-17.1bn (vs. our earlier estimate of DKK16.8bn) and EBIT of DKK3.4-3.8bn in LC (vs. our previous estimate of DKK3.4bn); the broad range is to take into consideration the uncertainty regarding the extent of the generic threat to Sabril. As anticipated, the company has reinstated the dividend (DKK2.45 per share for FY 16) after a pause of two years.
Another guidance upgrade
10 Nov 16
Lundbeck continued on its solid transformation journey with another consensus-beating quarter. Q3 16 total revenue was up 8% yoy to DKK3.9bn (+6% in LC), primarily driven by five key products (all in LC) – Rexulti (+324%), Northera (+142%), Brintellix/Trintellix (+65%), Abilify Maintena (+51%) and Onfi (+37%). These were more than able to cushion the negative impact stemming from the generic erosion of Xenazine (-38%) and the loss of sales on Azilect (-73%) due to the returning of the European rights to Teva. Profitability came in even better, with core EBIT showing a growth of 134% to DKK988m (the margin improved by c.13ppt to c.25%), mainly benefiting from the ongoing restructuring programme and positive product mix. Management again raised its full-year outlook at CER (third time this year) – while revenue guidance was increased to DKK15.3-15.7bn from an earlier DKK14.6-15bn, the EBIT outlook was upped to DKK2.1-2.3bn from a previous DKK1.5-1.7bn.
Another Alzheimer's drug bites the dust
26 Sep 16
One of Lundbeck’s key pipeline drugs, Idalopirdine, for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease (being developed in collaboration with Otsuka) flunked in a phase III study called STARSHINE. The drug failed to meet both primary and secondary end-points in either of the two doses, sending the shares down by c.15% on last Friday (23 September 2016). This was the first of the three phase III trials (data from the remaining trials is expected in Q1 17). The news had a ripple effect on Axovant Sciences (stock price down c.12%), which is developing a similar type (5-HT6 receptor antagonist) of Alzheimer’s drug.
Excellent quarter; second successive guidance upgrade this year
30 Aug 16
Lundbeck reported solid Q2 16 numbers, with both top line and bottom line coming in ahead of both consensus and our estimates. Revenue increased 3% yoy to DKK3.8bn (+5% at LC), driven by the continued outperformance of five key products (all at LC) – Abilify Maintena (+82%), Brintellix/Trintellix (+82%), Northera (+143%), Onfi (+46%) and Rexulti (sales of DKK193m), which more than offset the generic erosion of Xenazine (-38%) and the negative impact from the return of Azilect’s rights in Europe and certain other countries to Teva (-78%; Lundbeck now receives only royalties in these countries). Core EBIT increased 438% to DKK726m (the margin improved c.15.6ppt to 19.4%), led by benefits from the restructuring programme and the improving product mix. Net income came in at DKK232m, compared with a loss of DKK3.9bn in Q2 15, which was negatively impacted by the recognition of impairment losses of DKK4.8bn (primarily related to Rexulti). Buoyed by these results, management upgraded (for the second time this year) its FY 16 revenue guidance to DKK14.6-15bn (from an earlier DKK14.2-14.6bn) and the EBIT outlook to DKK1.5-1.7bn (from the previous DKK1.3-1.5bn).
Strong Q4 as Brintellix gets closer to cognition
07 Mar 16
Q4 15 ahead of expectations Lundbeck’s core numbers for Q4 15 and FY 15 came in ahead of market expectations as well as its own guidance. Sales for the quarter grew 7% at LC and 15% in DKK to c.DKK3.7bn (against our expectation of c.DKK3.3bn), fuelled by strong growth in five key products (combined up 142%) as well as healthy forex benefits, offset to some extent by the generic erosion of Cipralex (Europe and Canada) and Ebixa (Europe). The key development, however, was on the profitability front, where excellent cost control in administration and R&D (thanks to restructuring efforts) allowed the company to report higher-than-expected core EBIT of DKK73m. For the full year, while sales were flat at LC (+8% in DKK) to DKK14.6bn (vs. the company’s guidance of DKK14bn), core EBIT declined 31% to DKK847m (vs. the company guidance of DKK700m). At the reported level, EBIT and net profit came in slightly below our expectations at a loss of DKK6.8bn and DKK5.7bn, respectively, mainly on account of the impairment/reclassification of products’ rights charges of c.DKK5.7bn (mainly related to Rexulti and Abilify Maintena) and the restructuring expenses of c.DKK1.1bn recognised during the year. For FY 16, management sees (at LC) revenue of DKK13.8-14.2bn and EBIT of DKK1-1.2bn. This factors in the loss of Azilect sales in Europe (FY 15: DKK1.3bn) as it returned rights back to Teva. While there will be no dividend pay-out for FY 15, the company has revised its dividend pay-out range from 25-35% to 30-40%. It has also announced its long-term EBIT margin target of 25% (three to five years). It has doubled its executive management team by adding three new members – Lars Bang, Staffan Schüberg and Jacob Tolstrup.
Early signs of restructuring benefits
25 Dec 15
In the aftermath of the massive restructuring programme announced at the time of Q2 15 earnings release, Lundbeck reported strong Q3 numbers, with both revenue and profitability coming in ahead of market expectations. Total revenue was up 7% yoy at LC to DKK3.7bn, driven by (all at LC) Northera (+696%), Abilify Maintena (+182%), Brintellix (+171%), Onfi (+81%), Sabril (+13%) and Xenazine (+7%), along with the divestment gain of DKK113m related to sale of its stake in Naurex, offset to some extent by the continued generic erosion of Cipralex (-46%) in Europe and Canada, and Ebixa in Europe. Forex contributed 8ppts, pulling the reported growth to 15%. Strong top-line growth coupled with the early benefits of the restructuring plan, led to 42% growth in the core EBIT to DKK423m (margin improved 218bp). However, at the reported level, it posted a loss of DKK1.5bn and DKK1.3bn, at the EBIT and net profit level, respectively, mainly due to one-off expenses of the restructuring charge of DKK1.1bn and an impairment charge of DKK671m. For FY 15, while maintaining the core revenue outlook of DKK14bn, management nudged up core EBIT and reported EBIT guidance to DKK700m (from DKK500m earlier) and loss of DKK6.8bn (from an earlier loss of DKK7bn), respectively.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 21-03-2017
21 Mar 17
accesso Technology (ACSO LN) Full year results in line, but key trading months still ahead | Augean (AUG LN) Double digit growth in ’16, good start to ‘17 | Earthport (EPO LN) Interims show continued top line strength | Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL LN) Good momentum under new team. It’s now all about delivery | IQE (IQE LN) FY’16 results prompt further upgrades | Microsaic Systems (MSYS LN) Challenges in 2016, strategy remains in place | mporium Group (MPM LN) Funds raised to help execute strategy | RhythmOne (RTHM LN) Dawn of the independents | ScS Group (SCS LN) Strong progress on key growth initiatives albeit comps now toughen | Sinclair Pharma (SPH LN) FY results: EBITDA ahead, Instalift™ gaining pace | Vectura Group (VEC LN) FY (9-month) results
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 22-03-2017
22 Mar 17
Carador Income Fund (CIFU LN) Premium rating restored, high levels of refinancing activity | Cello Group (CLL LN) Outlook getting brighter – watch Pulsar | Eckoh (ECK LN) Largest ever US secure payments win | eg solutions (EGS LN) Full year results in line | Futura Medical (FUM LN) Licensing deal for CSD500 in Portugal | Verona Pharma (VRP LN) Global agreement with QuintilesIMS to support development of RPL554 | Xaar (XAR LN) 2016 results slightly ahead, reduced visibility in 2017
Good results, but further restructuring complex for investors
20 Mar 17
EKF Diagnostics FY 2016 results are slightly ahead of expectations, with both higher revenue and better EBITDA. Management has also announced plans to split the company into two separate companies, Point of Care and Laboratory Diagnostics, with the prospect of a delisting to manage the process. The primary metric for valuation of the two businesses is different consequently we believe that the separation is likely to generate significant value. However, in anticipation of the volatility likely given the restructuring announced this morning, despite the strength of the results, we reduce our recommendation to HOLD and maintain our 21p target price.
N+1 Singer - EKF Diagnostics - Final results & potential buy back
20 Mar 17
FY16 prelims are slightly ahead of our latest expectations, those having been increased materially over the course of H2’16 as the strength of the recovery in trading became apparent. In order to maximise shareholder value, the directors are currently examining a potential break up of the group. This would also involve a delisting from AIM. A buy back offer at 21.5p would therefore be made to those investors that wish to exit now rather than holding their shares for the two years plus it would likely take to achieve a potentially higher realisation value for the businesses.
Sinclair Pharma - Aesthetically Positioned to Continue Double-Digit Growth
23 Mar 17
With an innovative and differentiated product portfolio of injectable devices addressing the fast-growing aesthetics market, Sinclair is best positioned to continue to achieve double-digit revenue growth in the medium term.