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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on NOVO NORDISK A S-B. We currently have 8 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|05Dec16 02:34||GNW||Novo Nordisk files for regulatory approval of once-weekly semaglutide in the US and EU for the treatment of type 2 diabetes|
|05Dec16 12:47||GNW||Novo Nordisk A/S - Share repurchase programme|
|29Nov16 06:00||GNW||Novo Nordisk A/S: Tresiba® demonstrates a safe cardiovascular profile and reduces the risk of severe hypoglycaemia compared to insulin glargine U100 in the DEVOTE trial|
|28Nov16 12:36||GNW||Novo Nordisk A/S - Share repurchase programme|
|21Nov16 12:36||GNW||Novo Nordisk A/S - Share repurchase programme|
|14Nov16 12:31||GNW||Novo Nordisk A/S - Share repurchase programme|
|11Nov16 02:39||GNW||Novo Nordisk A/S: Trading in Novo Nordisk shares by board members, executives and associated persons on 10 November 2016|
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NOVO NORDISK A S-B
NOVO NORDISK A S-B
Another downgrade triggers panic; our first take on the results
28 Oct 16
Novo Nordisk released its Q3 results today with a mixed set of numbers for the quarter but yet another downgrade was the biggest disappointment. It has further revised down its long-term operating profit growth guidance from 10% to 5%, following the first downgrade at the beginning of this year from 15% (set in 1996) to 10%. While the revision from 15% to 10% was a practical acknowledgment of the market’s realities and hence was not perturbing for us, today’s revision is worrying. For 2016 as well, the outlook has been narrowed from 5-7% to 5-6% for sales and from 5-8% to 5-7% for operating profit. NB all sales numbers are in local currencies, unless specified otherwise. The Q3 sales grew by 5% in LC (6% in Q2) and by 3% in DKK to DKK27.5bn, with the main underperformance coming from the mature modern insulins – NovoRapid (-3%), NovoMix (-3%) and Levemir (-4%) – witnessing a combined sales decline of 4%. The new-generation insulin – Tresiba and Ryzodeg – fared well (combined sales of DKK1.1bn), while Victoza grew at a sequentially lower 10% (13% in Q2 and 15% in Q1), primarily due to a 4% decline in Europe (vs 3% growth in Q2). In total, the Diabetes segment grew by 5% (vs 7% growth in Q2 and Q1) to DKK22.3bn. The Biopharma business continued on Q2’s lines with 1% growth (vs 15% in Q1) to DKK5.2bn. Operating profit increased by 5% in LC and by 4% in DKK; the margin improved by 40bp yoy to 45.1% (vs 45.5% in Q2). Net profit grew by 17% in DKK to DKK9.8bn.
Correction opens the buying window
17 Oct 16
The massive sell-off triggered by the weak Q2 performance has been accelerated by the subsequent negative news-flow in the last few months, sending it back into the value-stock zone. After truncating the sales growth outlook for FY16 from 5-9% to 5-7% and the operating profit growth from 5-9% to 5-8%, Novo Nordisk has, most recently, reported receiving the CRL from the FDA on FIAsp (Faster-Acting Insulin Aspart – a combination of rapid-acting insulin aspart (NovoLog), nicotinimide and arginine).
Difficult US prompts another guidance downgrade, this time for 2016
07 Aug 16
Novo Nordisk released disappointing numbers for its Q2. Sales of DKK27.5bn were behind our as well as the consensus estimates. They represented a LC growth of 6% (vs 9% in Q1 16), with currency headwinds shaving off 5% points (vs 1% negative impact in Q1 15) from this. NB All sales growth numbers are in LC, unless specified otherwise. The underperformance came from a contract loss for Novolog in the US, lower price increases compared to historical years, wholesaler inventory management and lower NovoSeven sales due to competition. The diabetes and obesity care business grew by 7% (at par with 7% in Q1 16), but granular assessment shows that the lower growth in the US (+5% vs 9% in Q1), and International markets (+8% vs 14% in Q1) was balanced surprisingly by 20% growth (vs 3% in Q1) in China. Although the new-generation insulin (+205%; Tresiba, Ryzodeg and Xultophy) came up along the expected lines, modern insulins (-2% vs +3% in Q1 16) came as a negative surprise to us. All the three modern insulins – NovoRapid, NovoMix and Levemir – were worst hit in the US with a combined decline of 8% (vs 1% growth in Q1), mitigated to some extent by impressive growth in China (+26%). Victoza’s strong, though sequentially softer, growth (Q2 16:+13%, Q1:+15%) drove the 5% growth of the total diabetes business in the US. The Biopharma business aggravated the pain at a mere 1% growth (vs +15% in Q1) with underperformance again coming primarily from the US (-3% vs +21% in Q1) as the competition intensifies. The operating profit increased by 5% in LC (flat in DKK), with the margin declining by 60bp due to the lower sales of high-margin NovoSeven, increased spending on the ramp-up of capacity and marketing spend on Saxenda, NovoEight and Tresiba. The hedging gain of DKK105m (vs loss of DKK1.9bn in Q2 15), however, provided fillip to net profit (+19% in DKK), which came in at ~DKK10bn. Outlook in LC has been clipped, due to the competition in both the US diabetes market as well as the biopharmaceutical business. The top-line growth range of 5-9% for 2016 has been revised down to 5-7%, while the range of operating profit has been narrowed from 5-9% to 5-8%. The financial loss associated with forex hedging contracts has been increased from DKK200m to DKK600m. Capex requirement remains high due to the expansion of the manufacturing capacity for biopharma products, for API production, an expansion of the diabetes care filling capacity and construction of new research facilities.
Excellent pipeline support as fx tailwind dissipates
16 May 16
Novo Nordisk’s Q1 16 sales were up by 9% in LC (+8% in DKK) to DKK27.2bn, with the highest contribution coming from Victoza (+15%, 16% in DKK), followed by Tresiba (+117%, +113% in DKK) and Levemir (+9%, 8% in DKK). Overall, the Diabetes and Obesity franchise was up 7% (+6% in DKK) and the Biopharma business grew by 9% (+8% in DKK). The forex tailwind that the company enjoyed last year was absent this time, leading to the 9% LC sales growth translating into 8% DKK-reported growth. 64% of the growth came from the US (+12%), primarily driven by Victoza, Levemir and Tresiba, and also by a net positive impact of a one-off adjustment to rebates in the Medicaid patient segment, but offset to some extent by the declines in NovoRapid (-7%), NovoMix (-8%), Human Insulin and Novolog. International geographies (+15%; 3% in DKK) were driven by all three modern insulins (+16%), Victoza (+29%) and Tresiba (+142%), while Europe and China remained unimpressive at 1% and 3% growth, respectively. Adjusted operating profit, excluding the income from the partial divestment of NNIT last year, was up by 7% (in DKK; below the 2016-20 growth target of 10%) to DKK11.5bn, reflecting a 40bp dip in the margin to 45.2%. Outlook for 2016 in LC has been maintained but fx is likely to have a bigger headwind than anticipated earlier. DKK sales growth guidance has been lowered to 2-6% (from 4-8% earlier), while the operating profit growth guidance has been revised down to 1-5% (from 4-8% earlier). At the net profit level, however, we expect the hedging gains (mainly related to the $/DKK) to cover up for the fx losses.
Results strong but market perturbed by lower guidance
09 Feb 16
Novo Nordisk’s Q4 performance was in line with our expectations, although downward revision of long-term growth expectation and waning forex benefit weighed on the stock. The share price plunged 7% on 3 February when the results were announced and, aggravated by sector volatility, has lost another 10% since then (as of 8 February). Sales for the quarter grew by 8% in LC and 17% in DKK to DKK29.9bn, led by Victoza (+10% in LC and 22% in DKK), Levemir (+22% in LC and 34% in DKK) and healthy forex benefits. EBIT grew by 21% to DKK11.1bn (although the margin has been sliding sequentially – 46% in Q2, 45% in Q3 and 38.5% in Q4). For the year, sales growth of 8% in LC (+22% reported) was in line with management guidance of 7–9%. Adjusted operating profit was up by 14% in LC (36% in DKK) to DKK47bn. However, hedging losses worth DKK5bn from forward contracts pared some forex benefits from the net profit which ended 32% higher to DKK34.9bn (including DKK2.4bn gain on partial divestment of NNIT). The dvidend was increased by 28% to DKK6.4, representing a payout of 47%, pretty much in line with our expectation. Introduction of a bi-annual dividend has been proposed, along with the new share buy-back plan worth DKK14bn for 2016. The outlook for 2016 is disappointing at 5-9% LC growth for both revenue and operating profit. A strengthening DKK will remove the forex windfall that it enjoyed in 2015; consequently, the growth in DKK is now guided to be a percentage point lower than the LC growth (unlike the 22% sales growth in DKK vis-a-vis 8% LC growth in 2015). Capex guidance of DKK7bn, representing the investments going towards expanding manufacturing capacity, is higher than our expectation. A bigger disappointment for the market, however, was the pruning down of long-term operating profit growth guidance of 15% to 10%.
Victoza and Levemir buoy the quarter despite competition
06 Nov 15
Novo reported a strong quarter driven by Victoza, Levemir and currency tailwinds. Q3 revenue increased by 20% (8% in LC) to DKK26.8bn, with Victoza growing by 20% (LC), Levemir by 10% (LC) and currency contributing 12% to the LC growth. Others in the portfolio lent a steady support. The operating expenses were dominated primarily by launch costs related to Saxenda and NovoEight, preparatory expenses for Tresiba and sales force investments in some markets, offset to some extent by lower R&D (-10%) attributable to sale of inflammatory business in 2014. Operating profit of c.DKK12bn (+40% in DKK and 17% in LC) translated into net profit of DKK8.4bn (+29% in DKK). The outlook for 2016 sales was maintained at 7-9%, while the operating profit outlook has been upped from 19% to 20% in LC. The initial outlook for 2016 of mid-to-high single-digit sales growth is behind our estimates and reflects the challenges ahead in the diabetes sector, even though Novo Nordisk is better placed than Sanofi. There will be a Capital Markets Day on 19 November.
08 Dec 16
Elderstreet stake acquired 02 GENERAL NEWS Globalworth premium In this issue Venture capital firm Draper Esprit has taken a 30.8% stake in venture capital trust manager Elderstreet. Both investment managers focus on the technology sector and they will be able to co-invest. Elderstreet has investments in a number of AIM-quoted companies through its VCTs. The purchase was funded by an issue of Draper Esprit shares worth just over £250,000. Simon Cook, the chief executive of Draper Esprit, is a former partner at Elderstreet so he knows the business and the people who run it, although he did leave more than 14 years ago. Cook has previously acquired portfolios from 3i and Cazenove, two other firms where he has worked. Draper Esprit has an option to acquire the remaining shares in Elderstreet, which has more than £25m under management. Adding Elderstreet to the group enables Draper Esprit to offer investors a range of EIS funds, VCTs and an ISA qualifying listed evergreen patient capital fund. The enlarged group has venture capital assets under management of more than £350m. At the end of September 2016, Draper Esprit had a net asset value of 352p a share, which is similar to the current share price. The June 2016 flotation price was 300p a share. Draper Esprit is quoted on Ireland’s Enterprise Securities Market as well as AIM.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 05-12-2016
05 Dec 16
RTHM is acquiring a profitable Canadian listed mobile specialist for equivalent of US$42.5m consideration in shares (88.235m). This helps adds to two growth vectors RTHM is targeting; (i) adds unique exclusive audience (10m unique) and (ii) Exclusive demand Yahoo and Facebook. The business has 15 premium and owned and operated apps which provide users with rewards for activity. The business is expected to deliver c$9m of EBITDA in FY18 including $2m of cost synergies. This equates to just 4.7x EV/EBITDA. This marks what we see the first step in RTHM activity to scale the business and deliver on margin potential (see our initiation notes). Our initial estimates for EPS revisions are very significant - for FY18 are 2.3 cents (currently 0.6) and for FY19 4.3 (currently 2.5). There is a call at 830 for investors and we will revise post this.
Panmure Morning Note 02-12-16
02 Dec 16
We expect CareTech to report FY results to September on 8th December. A positive trading update in October indicated that performance for the year was in line with market expectations therefore we are focusing on the outlook. We expect a confident statement since the end of 2016 showed positive trends across fee rates, expansion in places and occupancy. We believe CareTech is well positioned for further expansion, and remains at an attractive valuation. We retain our BUY and 380p price target.
Small Cap Breakfast
07 Dec 16
Creo Medical group—Schedule 1 update.. £20m raise. Expected market cap £61.2m, admission expected 9 December. ECSC—Schedule 1 from provider of cyber security services. Raising £5m. Vendor sale £0.8m. Target date 14 Dec. Expected market cap £15m. RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 06-12-2016
06 Dec 16
With FY16 volume and revenue already disclosed in the pre-close, the focus in today’s prelims is on PBT (£100.3m versus our £101m) and EPS (96.8p versus our 95.4p). No special dividend triggered this year (none forecast) and DPS is held at 46.8p (N1SE: 48.0p). On end markets, recent commentary is reiterated – the core business is growing, whilst consumer electronics will be subdued in the current year (competitive capacity from Solvay). On currency, there will be a material benefit in the current year (a little more than the £14m to £15m previously indicated), and a further tailwind next year if current rates are maintained (quantum TBC). There is also an investment of £10m today in a minority interest in Magma Global, Victrex’ oil and gas mega programme partner. Although the share price is now close to our TP of 1730p, we feel that there is enough in today’s announcement to retain a positive stance on medium term opportunities with strong cashflow and a special dividend potentially to look forward to in the current year.
Panmure Morning Note 05-12-16
05 Dec 16
This week will see Chi-Med present data on both fruquintinib and epitinib at the 17th World Conference on Lung Cancer, concerning two proof-of-concept trials in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This morning, the poster presentation ‘A Phase I Study of Epitinib To Evaluate Efficacy And Safety In EGFR Mutation Positive (EGFRm+) NSCLC Patients With Brain Metastasis’ is available for investors to view on Chi-Med’s website.