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Despite Covid-19 materially impacting the Foodservice business, Finsbury traded profitably throughout Q4, and was able to report FY20A Adj EBITDA (pre-IFRS 16) only c4% lower YoY at £24.4m, whilst strong free cash flow (c19% historic FCF yield) reduced net leverage by 0.3x YoY to 1.1x (net debt lower by £9.1m YoY). Demand has been recovering MoM since April, with group revenues now approaching their prior year levels. Notwithstanding the steady improvement seen, due to continued uncertainty caused by Covid- 19, including the potential effects of a second wave of infections, we are not reinstating forecasts at this stage, and maintain our Under Review recommendation.
Companies: Finsbury Food Group Plc
Initiating with a Buy rating – We initiate our coverage on Dekel Agri-Vision with a BUY rating and a target price of 7.6p, equating to a market capitalisation of £32.2m. We believe Dekel Agri-Vision's agri-commodity diversification strategy, complementing its existing palm oil processing operations with a new cashew nut processing project (in which the company currently has a 43.8% interest, and an option to acquire a further 17%), provides a solid platform to enhance margins and drive step changes in profitability in the coming years.
Companies: Dekel Agri-Vision Plc
A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.
Companies: BCA CLIN CLG CBP DNLM EAH STU FCRM FUTR GTLY INS GLE NICL SDL SPR TRI
A brief year-end trading update with not a huge amount of details. The main point is that post the July 2019 profit warning, the PBT performance through a combination of mix and cost savings has come in towards top-end of market expectations, implying c18% y/y decline. So a c3% beat vs our £36.5m. Revenue decline at -9% however was worse than our -7%. This reflects ongoing challenges with the Rubicon and Rockstar barns and lower Irn-Bru volume due to price realignment. Net, the company had a better H2 than H1 and from our understanding, exits Q4 with good momentum. Looking ahead to 2020, the comps are easier and the company is expected to get back into growth mode (albeit 3% at the PBT level). The main cloud on the horizon is the Deposit Return Scheme for Scotland, and we understand the Scottish Parliament will provide an update on plans in the next few weeks. We view this as short-term negative for AG Barr and hence have a y/y profit decline for FY22. Post today’s update we nudge our current year PBT up by 2% and FY21 by 2% also. There will be some investor relief this morning but given the anaemic growth outlook and ongoing headwinds we feel an FY21 P/E looks full. We stay at Hold.
Companies: A.G. BARR Plc
Cake Box has started FY2021 positively with strong same store sales growth, new store openings and an excellent online performance. The company is not only able to repay its furlough monies, but also reward shareholders with a special dividend. Cake Box released a trading statement as such this morning.
Companies: Cake Box Holdings Plc