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A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
Continuing its exceptionally strong year, Venture Life has announced it expects to ‘comfortably exceed market expectations' for FY20E. This outperformance stems from all areas of the business, supported by an enlarged order book, €168m multi-year Chinese agreement (+€7m in 2020) and demand for its new branded hand sanitising gel. Venture Life has announced an extension to its Alliance Pharma manufacturing agreement. On top of our March upgrade, we are today, significantly increasing our revenue and EBITDA forecasts for FY20E (+19% and +24%, respectively). We reiterate our Buy recommendation.
Companies: Venture Life Group
Much has been written about the effects of the virus on the world and on the stock market. Here is one analyst’s take on some of the likely impacts on the way we should look at companies. This article was originally produced as a blog, “10 Changes Post Virus”, which was published a few weeks ago.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX DNL GDR NSF PCA PIN PHNX PHP RE/ RECI STX SCE SIXH TRX SHED VTA
Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.
Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM
Whilst Finsbury is experiencing strong demand from the retail channel, the food service channel (c20% of FY19A revenues) has been significantly impacted by the government's decision to close food outlets in order to control the spread of COVID-19. Finsbury is only in the early stages of assessing the impact of the virus on their business, and as such, is unable to provide earnings guidance. We withdraw our forecasts and place our rating Under Review, until visibility improves.
Companies: Finsbury Food Group
Distil delivered a solid trading performance in FY20, despite uncertainties caused by the impact of external events in the form of Brexit initially and COVID-19 more recently. With its disciplined cost approach, Distil saw a 15% increase in operating profit from a 2% rise in revenue. Range extensions have underpinned the continuing success of its leading RedLeg Spiced Rum brand and Distil has continued to lay the groundwork for the further development and future expansion of its brand portfolio.
ABDP Interim Results, ALSP Interim Dividend*, CGNR Financing Update*, COG FDA Clearance*, CNIC World's First, ELA Placing, ITM Grant, LID Launch, LRM Trading Update, , MSG Contract and Agreement*, PLI New Data*, TPG Final Results, TRAK Trading Update, VLG Agreements, VENN Final Results*, VER Fundraise, VIP Results
Companies: ABDP ALSP COG CNIC ELA ITM LID LRM PLI TPG TRAK ORPH VLG VER VIP CGNR CTEA
Share prices are built on expectations - expectations about all sorts of things, such as a company’s future sales growth, the trend in margins and the profits it can return. Understanding those expectations and how they move is critical to share price formation. Listing rules require quoted companies to update investors on progress relative to expectations. What managements often fail to understand is that many of their key investors do not have access to brokers’ research and, thus, cannot put management statements into context. It is these very investors that can cause shock movements in share prices on announcements in limited trading.
Companies: ABZA AGY ARBB BUR COG CLIG COS DNL LRM MUR ODX PPH YGEN PHP PURP RE/ RGD REDX SCLP TRX TON CHOC AVO AVCT VRP TETY
RESTORE (RST) | FEVERTREE DRINKS (FEVR) | WYG (WYG) | BREEDON (BREE) | HOTEL CHOCOLAT (HOTC) | CONVIVIALITY (CVR) | JAMES HALSTEAD (JHD)
Companies: RST FEVR WYG BREE HOTC CVR JHD
Despite all the hullaballoo of the Brexit vote and the subsequent election of Donald Trump as the next US President, the UK stock market prospered last year, especially in the latter few months of 2016. The combination of a depreciating currency – making $ earnings more valuable in relative terms - and the Trump emphasis on infrastructure expenditure drove the stock market higher
Companies: ABZA AGY APH ARBB BUR COG CLIG COS EVG MUR NSF ODX PPH YGEN PHP PURP RE/ RGD REDX SCLP TRX TON AVO AVCT TETY
The Dow Jones Index has just breached the 20,000 mark, the first time in its 131- year history that it has done so, whilst the FTSE-100 Index has also been at record levels in recent weeks. The election of the controversial Donald Trump as the new US President, and more specifically the impact of his planned expansionist economic policies, have boosted stock markets, both in the US and in the UK.
Companies: ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BUR COG CLIG COS DNL EVG MUR NSF ODX PPH PHP PURP RE/ RGD REDX SCLP SPH TRX TON
Most major pharmaceutical companies have reported results for 2016 during the last few weeks, providing the opportunity to update our industry statistics. For an industry that requires a long investment cycle, decisions made many years ago have consequences on current financial performance. Being able to look at performance over 20 years highlights how strategic decisions have panned out.
Companies: ABZA AVO AFHP AGY APH ARBB AVCT BUR COG CLIG COS DNL EVG GDR GHE MCL MUR NSF ODX PPH YGEN PHP PURP RE/ RGD REDX SCLP SPH TRX TON VAL VRP OXB
After much heralding, MIFID II is finally beginning to have an impact on the business of investment research, though its true ramifications might take years to be seen. The role of analyst research is widely misunderstood. It is not all about the conclusion: the rating and price target. The real content of research is about what is discounted in the current share price and what assumptions would produce different outcomes.
Companies: ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BUR COG CLIG COS DNL EVG MCL MUR NSF ODX PPH YGEN PHP RE/ RGD REDX SCLP SPH TRX OXB
Premier Foods’ H119 results demonstrate the business has become more resilient under the stewardship of outgoing CEO, Gavin Darby. Revenue growth of 1.0% in Q2 despite the hot summer was encouraging, and the UK relaunch of the Mr Kipling brand has clearly gone well. The news that Ambrosia may be sold suggests yet another step in the business transformation, although the price will determine the level of dilution and any change to net debt/EBITDA.
Companies: Premier Foods
We are introducing our Best Ideas for 2019 and also review the performance of last year’s picks. We suggest ten solidly financed stocks with good business dynamics that ought to be considered for core portfolio holdings and six UK domestically focused stocks that our analysts believe should perform strongly in the event that uncertainties unwind. We also introduce a new style of research from N+1 Singer which presents a Company’s dynamics and metrics in a clear and concise manner and concentrates on the pivotal issues affecting that Company and an investment decision.
Companies: BCA CLIN CLG CBP DNLM EAH STU FCRM FUTR GTLY INS GLE NICL SDL SPR TRI