Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on NESTE OYJ. We currently have 9 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Renewable Products debottlenecking: 3.0mt by 2020; potential further capacity build-up
07 Feb 17
THe Q4 results were in line with consensus expectations: comparable operating profit at €262m, comparable net profit at €228m. By division: 1) Oil Products: comparable operating profit was €98m (vs. €91m in Q4 15). The reference margin was $5.2/bbl (vs. $5.7/bbl in Q4 15). The additional margin was $5.3/bbl (as in Q4 15). The utilisation rate at Porvoo was 78% (vs. 80% in Q4 15) and at Naantali 52% (vs. 45%). 2) Renewable Products: comparable operating profit came in at €146m (vs. €231m in Q4 15). The reference margin was $278/t, (up from $209/t in Q4 15 and Q3 16). The additional margin was $187/t (vs. $424/t in Q4 15 and $296/t in Q3 16). 3) Oil Retail: operating profit was €19m (vs. €17m in Q4 15). The division has been renamed “Marketing & Services.” Outlook 2017: - Oil Products: reference margin similar to 2016 on average (c. $4.9/bbl). - Renewable Products: reference margins at around the same level as in 2016 (c. $207/t); the guidance on variable production costs has been reduced to $110/t (vs. $130/t previously). Renewables production capacity should increase to 3.0mt by 2020 (from 2.6mt in 2017) through debottlenecking. New capacity could be built, options include Singapore and the US – feasibility is being evaluated. The board proposes a €1.30 dividend, above consensus estimates (at €1.20 per share).
Q3 misses optimistic consensus
25 Oct 16
Q3 comparable operating profit was €264m (vs. €281m in Q3 15), below consensus estimates (at €278m). By division: 1) Oil Products: comparable operating profit was €120m (vs. €179m in Q3 15). The reference margin was $3.9/bbl (vs. the exceptional $9.1/bbl in Q3 15). The additional margin remained at $5.6/bbl (as in Q1 and Q2 16, vs. $4.1/bbl in Q3 15). The utilisation rate at Porvoo stood at 92% (vs. 96% in Q3 15) and Naantali’s at 63% (vs. 76%). 2) Renewable Products: comparable operating profit came in at €124m (vs. €75m in Q3 15), missing consensus estimates at €141m. The reference margin was $209/t (up from $194/t in Q3 15 and $168/t in Q2 16). The additional margin was $366/t (vs. $176/t in Q3 15 and $366/t in Q2 16). 3) Oil Retail: operating profit was €25m (vs. €27m in Q3 15). Outlook: - Oil Products: reference margins in Q4 are somewhat higher than in Q3; maintenance at the Porvoo refinery, however, should have a €30m impact on EBIT (anticipated from spring 2017); - Renewable Products: reference margin confirmed at around the average level of 2015, with a strong additional margin (also a confirmation); - Capex 2016 confirmed at €450m (higher than previous guidance at €400m). Q3 comparable net profit was €206m (vs. €227m in Q3 15), slightly below consensus (at €212m).
Renewable Products: boosted by the additional margin
28 Jul 16
Q2 comparable operating profit came in at €282m (vs. €78m in Q2 15), well above consensus estimates at €199m. Both Oil Products and Renewable products beat consensus. By division: 1) Oil Products: comparable operating profit was €149m (vs. €14m in Q2 15, when the Porvoo refinery underwent a turnaround), above consensus at €112m. The reference margin was $5.6/bbl (vs. $8.7/bbl in Q2 15). The additional margin remained at $5.6/bbl (as in Q1 16, vs. $2.1/bbl in Q2 15). The utilisation rate at Porvoo stood at 97% (vs. 28% in Q2 15), and at Naantali at 71% (vs. 63%). 2) Renewable Products: comparable operating profit was €119m (vs. €54m in Q2 15), beating analysts’ expectations at €68m. The reference margin was $168/t, (flattish yoy, up from $149/bbl in Q1 16). The additional margin came in at $366/t (vs. $168/t in Q2 15 and up from $270/t in Q1 16). 3) Oil Retail: operating profit was €23m (vs. €22m in Q2 15). Outlook: - Oil Products: reference margins in H2 lower than in H1 due to high global produt inventories; - Renewable Products: reference margin confirmed at around the average level of 2015, with a strong additional margin (also a confirmation); - Capex 2016 confirmed at €400m. Q2 comparable net profit was at €214m (vs. €55m in Q2 15), well above consensus (at €145m).
Q1 conventional and renewable refining miss consensus
27 Apr 16
Q1 comparable operating profit was €175m (vs. €215m in Q1 15), below consensus estimates at c.€200m. Both Oil Products and Renewable products came in below consensus. By segment: 1) Oil Products: the comparable operating profit was €86m (vs. €156m in Q1 15). The reference margin was $4.9/bbl (vs. $7.5/bbl in Q1 15). The additional margin rose to $5.6/bbl (vs. $4.2/bbl in Q1 15 and $5.3/bbl in Q4 15). The utilization rate at Porvoo was 88% (vs. 98% in Q1 15) due to planned maintenance. 2) Renewable Products: the comparable operating profit came in at €80m (vs. €42m in Q1 15). The reference margin was $149/t, (flat yoy, down from $209/bbl in Q4 15). The additional margin stood at $270/t (vs. $186/t in Q1 15), benefitting from the US BTC. 3) Oil Retail: the operating profit was €22m (up from €17m in Q1 15). Outlook: - Oil Products: reference margins supported by good gasoline margins, while the diesel crack spread is expected to remain flat. - Renewable Products: reference margin at around the average level for 2015, strong additional margin. - Capex 2016 confirmed at €400m. Q1 comparable net profit stood at €146m (-3% yoy), missing consensus.
Renewable Products drives Q4 beat, with 2016 reference margins similar to 2015
04 Feb 16
Q4 comparable operating operating profit came in at €352m (+39% yoy), 29% above consensus estimates. This is mainly thanks to Renewable products (€178m, +63% yoy and 30% above expectations), where the company sees refining margins in 2016 at approximately the same average level as in 2015. By segment: 1) Oil Products: comparable operating profit was €91m (vs. €110m in Q4 14). The reference margin was $5.7/bbl, stable yoy, and down from Q3 15 (at $9.1/bbl). The additional margin, at $5.3/bbl ($5.8/bbl in Q4 14) had a negative impact of €18m vs. Q4 14. Utilization rate at Porvoo was 80% (vs. 85% in Q4 14) due to the unscheduled maintenance of a module. The stronger dollar contributed with €34m. 2) Renewable Products: the reference margin was $209/t (flattish yoy). The US BTC contributed €80m more than in Q4 14. The additional margin averaged $424/t (+4% yoy). The stronger dollar had a €28m positive impact. 3) Oil Retail: operating profit was €17m (up from €8m in Q4 14). 4) Others: joint arrangements (including Neste Jacobs, Neste' engineering JV, at 60%, and Nynas, at 50%, with PDVSA) brought a €22m contribution (vs. €1m in Q4 14), raising Others to €15m (vs. -€2m in Q4 14). Q4 comparable net profit was at €295m (+43% yoy), beating consensus. Net cash from operations was at €380m (+8% yoy). Outlook 2016: - Oil products reference margin supported by the gasoline crack spread; - Renewable products reference margins at approximately the same average level as in 2015. 7-week turnaround of the Rotterdam refinery in April-May 16; - Capex at €400m; - Effective tax rate at c.20%.
27 Mar 17
Elecosoft* (ELCO): Steadily building profits (CORP) | Bioventix* (BVXP): Interim results lead to upgrades (CORP) | Hurricane Energy (HUR): Halifax discovery (BUY) | KBT Business Technology* (KBT): interims and contract win (CORP) | Independent Oil & Gas* (IOG): Licence updates (CORP)
28 Mar 17
ClearStar* (CLSU): Building a background for growth (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): TE-8 results (HOLD) | LiDCO* (LID): 2017 should be a transformative year (CORP) | Proteome Sciences* (PRM): FY 2016 in line. Moving towards breakeven (CORP) | Fulcrum (FCRM): Significant market potential, rising margins and a strong balance sheet (BUY) | Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB1): Strong and growing intellectual property (BUY) | 7digital* (7DIG): Open offer result (CORP)
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
27 Mar 17
Amerisur Resources (AMER LN)6; HOLD, £0.30: Reduced 2017e production outlook and year-end 2016 reserves | Condor Petroleum (CPI CN)8 ; BUY, C$3.50: Reports 4Q16 results and remains on track for first production from Turkey in mid-2017e | Hurricane Energy (HUR LN) (not covered): Halifax well update in the UK | Cairn Energy (CNE LN): BUY, £2.90: Update on the VR-1 well in Senegal by Far (FAR AU) (Not covered) | Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA/B LN) (not covered): Divestment of Gabonese assets
Strong trading leads to upgrades
22 Mar 17
On the back of today’s positive trading update and slightly upgraded profit forecasts for FY2017, FY2018 and FY2019 we have reviewed our DCF analysis. This has led to an increased DCF valuation per share of 1500p (from 1200p) which we have made our new target price (from 1200p). Both TFP and JC Paper have contributed to the upgrades shown in the table below as have favourable currency movements. With the potential for further upgrades due to capitalising 3DP costs to come we maintain our Add recommendation.