Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on NESTE OYJ. We currently have 9 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
Renewable Products debottlenecking: 3.0mt by 2020; potential further capacity build-up
07 Feb 17
THe Q4 results were in line with consensus expectations: comparable operating profit at €262m, comparable net profit at €228m. By division: 1) Oil Products: comparable operating profit was €98m (vs. €91m in Q4 15). The reference margin was $5.2/bbl (vs. $5.7/bbl in Q4 15). The additional margin was $5.3/bbl (as in Q4 15). The utilisation rate at Porvoo was 78% (vs. 80% in Q4 15) and at Naantali 52% (vs. 45%). 2) Renewable Products: comparable operating profit came in at €146m (vs. €231m in Q4 15). The reference margin was $278/t, (up from $209/t in Q4 15 and Q3 16). The additional margin was $187/t (vs. $424/t in Q4 15 and $296/t in Q3 16). 3) Oil Retail: operating profit was €19m (vs. €17m in Q4 15). The division has been renamed “Marketing & Services.” Outlook 2017: - Oil Products: reference margin similar to 2016 on average (c. $4.9/bbl). - Renewable Products: reference margins at around the same level as in 2016 (c. $207/t); the guidance on variable production costs has been reduced to $110/t (vs. $130/t previously). Renewables production capacity should increase to 3.0mt by 2020 (from 2.6mt in 2017) through debottlenecking. New capacity could be built, options include Singapore and the US – feasibility is being evaluated. The board proposes a €1.30 dividend, above consensus estimates (at €1.20 per share).
Q3 misses optimistic consensus
25 Oct 16
Q3 comparable operating profit was €264m (vs. €281m in Q3 15), below consensus estimates (at €278m). By division: 1) Oil Products: comparable operating profit was €120m (vs. €179m in Q3 15). The reference margin was $3.9/bbl (vs. the exceptional $9.1/bbl in Q3 15). The additional margin remained at $5.6/bbl (as in Q1 and Q2 16, vs. $4.1/bbl in Q3 15). The utilisation rate at Porvoo stood at 92% (vs. 96% in Q3 15) and Naantali’s at 63% (vs. 76%). 2) Renewable Products: comparable operating profit came in at €124m (vs. €75m in Q3 15), missing consensus estimates at €141m. The reference margin was $209/t (up from $194/t in Q3 15 and $168/t in Q2 16). The additional margin was $366/t (vs. $176/t in Q3 15 and $366/t in Q2 16). 3) Oil Retail: operating profit was €25m (vs. €27m in Q3 15). Outlook: - Oil Products: reference margins in Q4 are somewhat higher than in Q3; maintenance at the Porvoo refinery, however, should have a €30m impact on EBIT (anticipated from spring 2017); - Renewable Products: reference margin confirmed at around the average level of 2015, with a strong additional margin (also a confirmation); - Capex 2016 confirmed at €450m (higher than previous guidance at €400m). Q3 comparable net profit was €206m (vs. €227m in Q3 15), slightly below consensus (at €212m).
Renewable Products: boosted by the additional margin
28 Jul 16
Q2 comparable operating profit came in at €282m (vs. €78m in Q2 15), well above consensus estimates at €199m. Both Oil Products and Renewable products beat consensus. By division: 1) Oil Products: comparable operating profit was €149m (vs. €14m in Q2 15, when the Porvoo refinery underwent a turnaround), above consensus at €112m. The reference margin was $5.6/bbl (vs. $8.7/bbl in Q2 15). The additional margin remained at $5.6/bbl (as in Q1 16, vs. $2.1/bbl in Q2 15). The utilisation rate at Porvoo stood at 97% (vs. 28% in Q2 15), and at Naantali at 71% (vs. 63%). 2) Renewable Products: comparable operating profit was €119m (vs. €54m in Q2 15), beating analysts’ expectations at €68m. The reference margin was $168/t, (flattish yoy, up from $149/bbl in Q1 16). The additional margin came in at $366/t (vs. $168/t in Q2 15 and up from $270/t in Q1 16). 3) Oil Retail: operating profit was €23m (vs. €22m in Q2 15). Outlook: - Oil Products: reference margins in H2 lower than in H1 due to high global produt inventories; - Renewable Products: reference margin confirmed at around the average level of 2015, with a strong additional margin (also a confirmation); - Capex 2016 confirmed at €400m. Q2 comparable net profit was at €214m (vs. €55m in Q2 15), well above consensus (at €145m).
Q1 conventional and renewable refining miss consensus
27 Apr 16
Q1 comparable operating profit was €175m (vs. €215m in Q1 15), below consensus estimates at c.€200m. Both Oil Products and Renewable products came in below consensus. By segment: 1) Oil Products: the comparable operating profit was €86m (vs. €156m in Q1 15). The reference margin was $4.9/bbl (vs. $7.5/bbl in Q1 15). The additional margin rose to $5.6/bbl (vs. $4.2/bbl in Q1 15 and $5.3/bbl in Q4 15). The utilization rate at Porvoo was 88% (vs. 98% in Q1 15) due to planned maintenance. 2) Renewable Products: the comparable operating profit came in at €80m (vs. €42m in Q1 15). The reference margin was $149/t, (flat yoy, down from $209/bbl in Q4 15). The additional margin stood at $270/t (vs. $186/t in Q1 15), benefitting from the US BTC. 3) Oil Retail: the operating profit was €22m (up from €17m in Q1 15). Outlook: - Oil Products: reference margins supported by good gasoline margins, while the diesel crack spread is expected to remain flat. - Renewable Products: reference margin at around the average level for 2015, strong additional margin. - Capex 2016 confirmed at €400m. Q1 comparable net profit stood at €146m (-3% yoy), missing consensus.
Renewable Products drives Q4 beat, with 2016 reference margins similar to 2015
04 Feb 16
Q4 comparable operating operating profit came in at €352m (+39% yoy), 29% above consensus estimates. This is mainly thanks to Renewable products (€178m, +63% yoy and 30% above expectations), where the company sees refining margins in 2016 at approximately the same average level as in 2015. By segment: 1) Oil Products: comparable operating profit was €91m (vs. €110m in Q4 14). The reference margin was $5.7/bbl, stable yoy, and down from Q3 15 (at $9.1/bbl). The additional margin, at $5.3/bbl ($5.8/bbl in Q4 14) had a negative impact of €18m vs. Q4 14. Utilization rate at Porvoo was 80% (vs. 85% in Q4 14) due to the unscheduled maintenance of a module. The stronger dollar contributed with €34m. 2) Renewable Products: the reference margin was $209/t (flattish yoy). The US BTC contributed €80m more than in Q4 14. The additional margin averaged $424/t (+4% yoy). The stronger dollar had a €28m positive impact. 3) Oil Retail: operating profit was €17m (up from €8m in Q4 14). 4) Others: joint arrangements (including Neste Jacobs, Neste' engineering JV, at 60%, and Nynas, at 50%, with PDVSA) brought a €22m contribution (vs. €1m in Q4 14), raising Others to €15m (vs. -€2m in Q4 14). Q4 comparable net profit was at €295m (+43% yoy), beating consensus. Net cash from operations was at €380m (+8% yoy). Outlook 2016: - Oil products reference margin supported by the gasoline crack spread; - Renewable products reference margins at approximately the same average level as in 2015. 7-week turnaround of the Rotterdam refinery in April-May 16; - Capex at €400m; - Effective tax rate at c.20%.
20 Feb 17
Hayward Tyler Group* (HAYT): Trading update and financial position (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDL): Interim results (BUY) | Gemfields* (GEM): Interim results (CORP) | Premaitha Health* (NIPT): Middle East momentum (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): Acquisition update and TE-8 well spud (HOLD) | Proactis* (PHD): Interim trading on track (CORP) | 7digital* (7DIG): Automotive contract win (CORP)
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Small Cap Breakfast
16 Feb 17
Saffron Energy—Schedule One update. Raising £2.5m, expected Mkt Cap £7.7m. Admission due 24 Feb. Italian Oil & Gas Play Guinness Oil & Gas Exploration—Publication of prospectus. Seeking to raise £50m and invest in 15 exploration companies at launch, with plans to grow the portfolio to 30 positions during its lifetime. Issue closing 23 Feb. Arix Bioscience — Intention to float on the main market from the global healthcare and life science Company supporting medical innovation. Raised £52m in Feb 16 with investors including Woodford Investment Management
Playing the long term, with short-term risks
16 Feb 17
After the publication of the annual results, we update our view and highlight the key points. Q4 16 key highlights As a reminder, the company reported results 30% below expectations at $400m for Q4 16. By division: 1) In upstream, underlying replacement costs profit came to $400m, vs. a loss a year earlier of $728m and a loss of $224m in Q3 16, reflecting the ongoing lower costs which have benefited from simplifications, efficiencies and lower exploration write-offs. In the US, the loss is still $147m. Production came in at 2.19mbpd, down 5.5% yoy due to disposals and up 1.8% on an underlying basis thanks to ramp-ups. One of the key events during the quarter was the renewal of BP’s onshore concession in the UAE with a 10% interest in the ADCO onshore oil concession. In terms of outlook, production should be higher in 2017 and will depend on the timing of project start-ups, acquisitions, divestments, and OPEC quota. Also the Abu Dhabi concession will be visible as from Q1 17. 2) In downstream, replacement costs profit came to $877m, down from $1.2bn a year ago and $1.4bn in Q3 16. The US division showed a loss of $371m vs a gain of $1.25bn. Non-US Fuel business earnings halved to $417m due to the weaker refining environment as well as the impact from the particularly large turnaround at the Whiting refinery. In lubricants, profit rose to $357m, reflecting the continued strong performance in its growth markets and premium brands as well as simplifications and greater efficiencies. The margin should remain unchanged for Q1 17. 3) Rosneft. Underlying replacement costs profit came to $135m, down from $235m a year ago, affected by the increased government take. Production was at 1.15mbpd, up from 1.03mbpd a year ago. This reflects the completion of the acquisition of Bashneft and Rosneft’s increased stake in the PetroMonagas venture. BP received a dividend of $322m after deduction of the withholding tax, in July 2016. On the Macondo oil spill, the charge taken for the Q4 16 pre-tax was $530m. This reflects BP’s latest estimates for claims including business economic loss. The pre-tax cash outflow on costs related to the oil spill for the full year 2016 was $7.1bn. Cash flow Excluding the Gulf of Mexico payment, the operating cash flow was $4.5bn. Underlying operating cash flow excluding the oil spill-related payment was $17.8bn for the full year. Proceeds during the year and the scrip dividend were not enough to cover capex and the cash dividend. Gearing at the end of the year increased to 27% ($35.5bn debt), in the high range of the group’s target of 20-30%. Organic capital was $16bn, below original guidance of $17bn to $19bn. Capex in 2017 should be close to $16-17bn. Divestment proceeds should be higher in 2017, close to $5bn and then reducing by $2-3bn per year after 2018. The total costs of the Deepwater payment should fall to $2bn in 2018 and then $1bn per year as from 2019. In 2017, this should be close to $5bn. All in all, including the latest acquisitions, cash flow break-even should be close to $60/bbl in 2017.
Share & share alike
14 Feb 17
The rally in the last fortnight, highlighted in the table, reflects a continued flow of positive updates and economic news. The FTSE 250, Small cap and Fledgling indices have reached record highs. We are in the lull ahead of results for those companies with a December year end, a welter of economic data regarding the UK economy, the State of the Union address in the US on 28 February and the UK Budget on Wednesday 8 March. We will learn at that stage the latest forecasts from the Office of Budget Responsibility. As highlighted previously, the reaction to corporate updates will continue to set the tone.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
17 Feb 17
Enquest (ENQ LN): Speculative Buy, £0.65: Kraken FPSO in the field and hooked up in the North Sea | Ithaca Energy (IAE LN/CN)6: BUY, £1.40: Stella First Hydrocarbons in the North Sea | Bowleven (BLVN LN) (not covered): Denies claims made by Crown Ocean Capital