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Renewable Products drives Q4 beat, with 2016 reference margins similar to 2015

  • 04 Feb 16

Q4 comparable operating operating profit came in at €352m (+39% yoy), 29% above consensus estimates. This is mainly thanks to Renewable products (€178m, +63% yoy and 30% above expectations), where the company sees refining margins in 2016 at approximately the same average level as in 2015. By segment: 1) Oil Products: comparable operating profit was €91m (vs. €110m in Q4 14). The reference margin was $5.7/bbl, stable yoy, and down from Q3 15 (at $9.1/bbl). The additional margin, at $5.3/bbl ($5.8/bbl in Q4 14) had a negative impact of €18m vs. Q4 14. Utilization rate at Porvoo was 80% (vs. 85% in Q4 14) due to the unscheduled maintenance of a module. The stronger dollar contributed with €34m. 2) Renewable Products: the reference margin was $209/t (flattish yoy). The US BTC contributed €80m more than in Q4 14. The additional margin averaged $424/t (+4% yoy). The stronger dollar had a €28m positive impact. 3) Oil Retail: operating profit was €17m (up from €8m in Q4 14). 4) Others: joint arrangements (including Neste Jacobs, Neste' engineering JV, at 60%, and Nynas, at 50%, with PDVSA) brought a €22m contribution (vs. €1m in Q4 14), raising Others to €15m (vs. -€2m in Q4 14). Q4 comparable net profit was at €295m (+43% yoy), beating consensus. Net cash from operations was at €380m (+8% yoy). Outlook 2016: - Oil products reference margin supported by the gasoline crack spread; - Renewable products reference margins at approximately the same average level as in 2015. 7-week turnaround of the Rotterdam refinery in April-May 16; - Capex at €400m; - Effective tax rate at c.20%.