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AT&T/Time Warner: cranking up the convergence dial
24 Oct 16
The proposed acquisition of Time Warner by AT&T highlights what we see as the irresistible gravitational pull of communications markets towards converged services. We argue that Sky, BT and Vodafone/Liberty will all need to invest further in owned content – and that ITV looks strategically attractive in this regard (both for its content and broadcasting operations). We accept, though, that timing on this could be some way off yet, and in the meantime ITV needs to knuckle through what is likely to be an extended period of weakness for advertising revenues.
A pathway to refinancing
26 Oct 16
Following renewed pressure on trading in H1, and a recent agreed waiver of the banking covenant, the stock is trading close to its low. The market cap of £13m reflects option value only on the chances of a successful bond refinancing, in our view. We highlight a potential pathway to a successful refinancing, if the company is able to deliver across several fronts. Our central case on this basis is 60p (4.8x the current share price) with a range of outcomes up to 225p.
Smart, connected data
21 Oct 16
YouGov’s FY16 results show the continuing benefits of its strategy to build on its Data Products and Services, delivering revenue and profit growth well in excess of the market. There was also some benefit from currency movements. The group’s transition from market researcher to global data and analytics business should drive continuing growth well ahead of industry rates, with the roll-out of scalable products and services internationally supporting margin and cash generation. The shares have performed strongly as this strategy has started to reap financial rewards, with the current price well supported.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 26-10-2016
26 Oct 16
Verona Pharma has been awarded its second Venture and Innovation Award from the UK Cystic Fibrosis Trust for the development of RPL554 in Cystic Fibrosis (CF). The award signals the significant potential for RPL554 to be developed as a novel treatment for Cystic Fibrosis. Preliminary data supports the molecule’s potential utility in this indication, demonstrating RPL554’S ability to activate an ion channel known to be dysfunctional in CF. The award will support a Phase IIa clinical trial expected to commence in H1 2017. Preparations have also started for Phase IIb trials of RPL554 as a nebulised treatment for COPD with clinical dosing expected to commence in Q2 2017. We remain extremely encouraged by the expanding opportunity of RPL554 and Verona Pharma’s future prospects.
29 Sep 16
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N+1 Singer - Centaur Media - In-line update – 6.9% yield stands out
26 Oct 16
While Q3 advertising has remained weak as expected, the rest of the business appears to be on track hence guidance is being maintained at the revenue, EBIT and earnings levels. Cash generation is good with the improvement in receivables leading to guidance that implies Centaur is tracking slightly ahead of our net debt estimate for the year end. The £2m cost saving program is on track. Encouragingly deferred revenues continue to grow (+14% YoY) underscoring the ongoing improvement in the quality of revenues and shift to digital (total digital revenues +10%) and events (+20% underlying growth). With Centaur on track and the year-end coming up fast its worth considering that our current TP equates to just 6.7x FY17 EV/EBITDA and P/E 9.9x. While gaining a 10x rating may not be immediately likely an 8x multiple is looking more reasonable implying an 83p valuation. This would be 86p TSR including the dividend, or an almost doubling of an investment at this level. The stock offers a 6.9% yield at current levels and the balance sheet looks fine. While risks remain the risk/reward looks firmly weighted to the upside. BUY.