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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on AIR FRANCE-KLM. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|06Dec16 05:00||GNW||AIR FRANCE - KLM : Declaration of number of voting rights at November 30th, 2016|
|09Nov16 06:30||GNW||AIR FRANCE - KLM: OCTOBER 2016 TRAFFIC|
|08Nov16 05:00||GNW||AIR FRANCE - KLM : Declaration of number of voting rights at October 31, 2016|
|03Nov16 07:40||GNW||Trust Together: Air France-KLM regains the offensive with a new strategic project|
|03Nov16 07:30||GNW||AIR FRANCE - KLM : Third Quarter 2016 results|
|02Nov16 06:16||GNW||AIR FRANCE - KLM : Change in governance at Air France|
|10Oct16 06:30||GNW||AIR FRANCE - KLM: SEPTEMBER 2016 TRAFFIC|
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
Fortunately there is Transavia!
09 Nov 16
Air France-KLM group reported its October traffic figures which showed a total group capacity increase (+2.9%) that was higher than the traffic increase (+1.5%), leading to a lower occupancy rate (85.3% and 1.2 points yoy). In October, the group carried 8.4m passengers (+3.7% yoy) but this strong increase is mainly thanks to the Transavia airline’s performance with 1.3m passengers carried (+25%) while the other airlines saw a traffic increase of 0.5% yoy to 7.1m passengers. The RPK is slightly increasing yoy (+1.5%) to 22,788m and slightly decreasing since last September but the trend is normal at this time of the year, while the occupancy rate also follows the same trend seen in the summer. The main group’s airlines (Air France, KLM, HOP!) have seen their capacity increase by 1.6% globally, although variable in different geographic areas (Caribbean +9.9%, North America +4.1% but LatAm -5%). At the same time, traffic was up only 0.2%, while the geographic areas’ trends were similar to the capacity variations. Globally, the occupancy rate decreased by 1.2 points to 85%, dragged down by short- and medium-haul and by the Africa/Middle East region. The Transavia airline showed a capacity increase of 16.8% while its traffic only grew by 14.9%, leading to a decreasing occupancy rate yoy of 88.6%. This strong growth was mainly thanks to the French part of Transavia and to the Munich base development. Cargo still shows disappointing figures with traffic decreasing by 3.5%, while capacity decreased by 3%. The occupancy rate is also down yoy to 61.9%, continuing the downward trend initiated in 2011.
New plan and new airline for cost reduction, without conflict this time
04 Nov 16
Air France unveiled a quite weak Q3 but it also presented its new strategic plan called “Trust Together” which concerns the creation of a new reduced cost airline. Q3 revenues were still impacted by the weak demand to travel to France following the attacks in France. Geopolitical uncertainties also impacted the traffic which decreased by 1.2% in Q3 yoy. During the quarter, revenues were down 4.1% yoy (-5.1% reported), while the EBITDA decreased to €1,419m (€-174m reported and €-84m on a comparable basis). Restated EPS also decreased to €1.49 (€-0.22).
Must capitalise on "fuel bonus"
19 Feb 16
h1. Headline figures: Air France-KLM saw its revenues climb to €26.1bn, up 4.6% on a reported basis but down 3.2% lfl. Group EBITDA stood at €2,447m, a reported increase of €858m and up €576m lfl. The operating result sky-rocketed to €816m, up €945m and up €698m lfl. Finally net income was positive for the first time in many years at €118m. The group reduced unit costs by 0.6%, somewhat shy of its original 1% target. The significant boost from the fuel price fall means that the group managed a significant reduction in net debt, from €5.4bn at end 2014 down to €4.3bn at 31 December, which means that the group's debt has fallen by some €2.2bn over the last four years. h1. Results by segment: h2. Passenger network: 2015 revenues of €20.5bn up from €19.6bn and an operating profit of €842m (-€83m in 2014). Overall the group increased capacity by 0.7% during the year with traffic growing 2.8% thanks to an improved load factor at 85.1% vs 84.7%. Unit revenues however came under pressure in 2015, down 3.3% at constant currency, especially in the long haul segment (-4.4%) while medium haul unit's revenues were flat. The fall came from falling demand out of Brazil and Japan (10% of group capacity), in addition to a drop in Oil & Gas related customers mainly out of Africa and an impact from the Paris November terrorist attacks that the group estimates at €120m. h2. Cargo: 2015 revenues of €2.4bn down from €2.7bn and an operating profit of -€245m (-€212m in 2014). The Cargo activity continued to be affected by generally weak global trade and structural market overcapacity. The division cut full freighters' capacity by 23% (halving the full freighters' loss to €42m from €97m in 2014) so that overall capacity fell by 5.8%. Revenues per available ton kilometre fell by 12.8% on a lfl basis. Despite the sharp fall, unit cost fell 10.8% partially mitigating the drop in demand thanks to falling fuel prices as well as a headcount reduction of 8.8%. h2. Maintenance: 2015 revenues of €4bn (of €1.58bn from third parties) up from €3.39bn and an operating profit of €214m (€174m in 2014). Third-party revenues increased 7.3% on a lfl basis but 26% on a reported basis to €1.58bn from €1.25bn thanks mainly to the strong dollar but also from the numerous contracts signed in prior years. h2. Transavia: 2015 revenues of €1.1bn up from €1.06bn and an operating loss of €35m (-€36m in 2014). Transavia increased capacity by 5.3% with Transavia France capacity up 25% and Transavia Netherlands shifting its capacity from charter flights (-13%) to scheduled flights +17%. Traffic increased by 5.4% with load factors remaining stable at 89.9%. Unit revenues fell by 1.6% while unit costs fell by 1.8%, resulting in a stable loss of €35m as Transavia continues to seek out scale. 2016 will see ASK’s increase by 15% with additional capacity in France and a new base opening in Munich. h1. OUTLOOK: Air France-KLM suggests that the high level of uncertainty regarding the fuel price as well as the unit revenue evolution due to geopolitical contexts and the industry capacity environment means that a significant part of fuel savings on the P&L are expected to be offset by the downward pressure on unit revenue and negative currency impacts. The group will look to reduce unit costs by 1% in 2016. Free operating cash flow generation after disposals is expected to be between €0.6bn and €1.0bn in 2016 and with a continuing reduction in net debt as a result.
Strong Q3 thanks to market improvement but structural issues remain
29 Oct 15
Revenues for Q3 15 were down 2.4% to €7.42bn lfl but up 10.4% on a reported basis. Importantly, capacity grew by +1.2% which is lower than the RPK at +2.2%. Revenues were boosted by solid peak season passenger numbers, while the Cargo activity continued to suffer from the structural overcapacity on the segment but AF-KLM’s capacity has been adjusted with the retirement of part of the fleet. Group operating result stood at €898m, up €304m on a lfl basis, but up €651m on a reported basis. Mainly thanks to the non-recurrence of last year’s strikes (estimated to have had a negative impact of €330m) and decreased fuel costs combined with solid passenger numbers. Adjusted net income came in at €624m, up €518m on Q3 14. Importantly, net debt fell by €1.77bn to €4.3bn so that the company’s net debt/EBITDA ratio fell to 3.4x from 4x. The full-year net debt reduction objective is maintained at €4.4bn, implying a €100m increase in net debt over Q4. The guidance for full-year unit cost reduction objective has been revised downward to -0.5%-0.7% from -1%-1.3%. Management is keen to stress that the Q3 performance is not linked to structural changes in the business but that the company had benefited from the improvement in the market environment. The talks with unions must resume to agree further savings and reduce the gap with competitors. This is particularly highlighted by the difference in the operating result for 9M 15 (€666m) vs 9M 14 (€370m strike adjusted). The €294m improvement is almost exclusively due to the reduced fuel bill improvements of €1.18bn which compensate for negative currency impacts of €118m, decreased unit revenues of 4.2% (€770m) and a slight improvement in unit costs of €86m, which is cancelled out by a €89m increase in P&L pension related expenses.
Traffic in July: good passenger traffic but lower unit revenue
10 Aug 15
Air France, KLM and HOP! transported 7.6m passengers (+1.3%). Traffic growth was good (+2.7%) and above the moderate capacity increase (+1.3%) which led to an improvement in the seat load factor to 89% (+1.2pts). Unit revenue per available seat kilometre continued to decrease at constant currency. Transavia carried 1.3m passengers (+9.4%). Traffic (in RPK) growth was above the capacity increase (respectively +6.2% and +4.4%). The seat load factor increased significantly to 91.6%, +1.5pts. In the cargo business, capacity and traffic were down, respectively -8% and -10.4%. The load factor deteriorated by 1.6pts to 57.8%. Unit revenue per available ton kilometre decreased significantly at constant currency.
Some positives behind the negatives
24 Jul 15
Q2 15 results: Q2 15 was a mixed quarter which included some positive achievements. - Revenue increased to €6.64bn (+3%, o/w +2.5% and -9.6%% in the Passenger network and Cargo respectively, +2.7% at Transavia, +24.1% and +4.1% in the maintenance and catering businesses respectively). Revenue was down 4.5% organically (vs +1.7% in Q2 14). This poor performance reflects capacity limitation at Air France, KLM and HOP! and lower unit revenue (-4.8% lfl). - EBITDA declined to €569m (-11%) and the operating income decreased to €185m (-22%) due to a lower contribution from the Passenger network (down €45m to €210m) and cargo business which had higher losses (€-78m vs €-45m in Q2 14). - Group net loss was €-79m (vs €-11m in Q2 14). Amongst the most significant items are principally: 1) restructuring provisions of €71m related to the voluntary departure plan implemented at KLM (cargo activity principally), 2) the reduction in net cost of the financial debt (€-77m vs -88m in Q2 14), 3) a negative change in the fair value of financial assets/liabilities (€-40m vs €+32m in Q2 14), and 4) significant forex losses in the Financial result (€-91m vs €-2m in Q2 14). H1 15 key data: Based on revenue of €12.3bn (+2.4%, -3.6% lfl), EBITDA declined to €548m (-7%), operating loss increased to €-232m (vs €-207m in H1 14) and the reported group net loss was slightly higher at €-638m (vs €-614m in H1 14). On 30 June 2015, net debt amounted to €4.55bn (vs €5.41bn at year-end 2014). The operating cash flow surged to €1,092m (+26%) due to a favourable move in the change of WCR (€862m) and lower cash-out related to the voluntary departure plans to a lesser extent (€97m vs €144m in H1 14). Net capex including no sales/lease-back transaction conversely to last year was up to €818m (vs €775m in H1 14). Therefore, FCF was €274m (vs €95m in H1 14) and other cash-in included the sale of Amadeus IT Holding's shares for €327m and a euro hybrid bond issue of €600m.
05 Dec 16
These interims show LPEs by is ahead of its plan to recruit 360 LPEs by April 2017 and is making impressive progress in Australia. The statement (and we expect the results presentation) provide considerable evidence of Purplebricks’ progress in building its brand, increasing its LPE footprint, developing its technology, creating engaging marketing and selling properties. We leave our forecasts unchanged. Investor confidence in Purplebricks’ ability to deliver sustainable profitable growth should result in share price appreciation towards a valuation based on its results for the year ended April 2019.
Successfully engaging players
06 Dec 16
Stride has a clear focus on online bingo and soft gaming and is growing rapidly, with FY16 l-f-l revenue up 22%. The acquisitions of Tarco and 8Ball at the end of FY16 doubled its share of the UK bingo-led market from 5% to 10% and should deliver material synergies from FY17. Our unchanged FY17 estimates are for 11% EPS growth and strong cash generation. We expect organic growth to be augmented by further accretive acquisitions in due course. Stride’s FY17 P/E is 10.3x and the calendarised EV/EBITDA is only 7.1x, implying considerable share price upside potential.
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.
Dominant, defensive and highly cash generative
24 Nov 16
Pets at Home have reported a strong set of interims for the 28 week period to 13th October which highlight the investment strengths. This is a high quality retail business that enjoys a dominant position in an attractive and highly defensive subsector. The company has a pipeline of profitable store openings, reports consistently positive like-for-like growth and is highly cash generative. We therefore reiterate our Buy recommendation and price target of 271p.
Small Cap Breakfast
07 Dec 16
Creo Medical group—Schedule 1 update.. £20m raise. Expected market cap £61.2m, admission expected 9 December. ECSC—Schedule 1 from provider of cyber security services. Raising £5m. Vendor sale £0.8m. Target date 14 Dec. Expected market cap £15m. RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m