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Positive on global markets and expenses offset by French retail banking
28 Jul 16
BNP Paribas released its Q2 16 earnings this morning. Total revenues were 4% higher than consensus expectations (once adjusted for higher losses than expected on OCA/DVA in the corporate centre). Total expenses were in line with the company-compiled consensus whereas loan losses were 11% better than expectations, leading to a 4% beat in operating income (versus expectations). CET1 ratio at 11.1% is 10bp higher than last quarter.
Earnings much higher due to lower loan losses
03 May 16
BNP Paribas released its Q1 16 earnings: - Revenues at €10.8bn are 2% higher than expectations (looking at the details though, revenues are positively impacted by accounting one-offs, OVA and DVA). - Expenses at €7.6bn are 1.5% better than forecasts. - Cost of risk at €757m is €237m lower due to €30m of write-backs in the capital markets and much lower loan losses in retail banking and especially in personal finance (at €221m versus €297m expected). Profit before tax is therefore 30% higher than expectations. CET1 ratio at 11% is better than expected and better than last quarter’s CET1 ratio (at 10.9%). The share price was 3% higher at the opening.
Earnings in line, positive on capital
05 Feb 16
BNP Paribas's Q4 15 earnings release is roughly in line with expectations after stripping out all exceptional items. Salutary, however remember that the Q4 15 operating income is 10.5% lower than in Q4 14. On top of this, both us and the market had sharply reduced its earnings expectations in the last weeks/months, reflecting market worries in earnings expectations (BNP Paribas' and French banks' share prices have lost roughly 30%). On the solvability side, the CET1 ratio is a bit higher than expectations, at 10.9%, and the leverage ratio at 4% is becoming less of an issue.
Earnings in line...common equity tier 1 still growing
30 Oct 15
BNP Paribas today announced Q3 15 results which were broadly in line with expectations with clean total revenues (excluding one-off OCA and CVA) at €10,308bn (0.8% lower than expected), and operating expenses also in line at €6.98bn. Profit before tax was, however, 3% higher than expectations due to lower cost of risk (€882m vs €973m).
Strong Q215 results.
31 Jul 15
BNP Paribas released its Q215 earnings. Group revenue growth was strong compared to Q214 and much higher than consensus (€11079m vs €10583m). Total operating expenses were in line with consensus and the cost of risk was 10% lower than expected. All in all, operating income was 20% higher than expected. On the positive newsflow also, CET1 was up 30bps to 10.6%.
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Highly concentrated portfolio, strong performance
26 Oct 16
Finsbury Growth & Income Trust (FGT) aims to generate long-term growth in capital and income from a concentrated portfolio of primarily UK equities, which are held for the long term. FGT is benchmarked against the FTSE All-Share index, but is not constrained by its composition; c 70% of the portfolio is invested in consumer stocks. The trust has a progressive dividend policy and annual dividends have compounded by 6.9% pa since FY11; the current dividend yield is 2.0%. FGT has outperformed its peers and the benchmark over one, three, five and 10 years. Strong investor demand along with capital appreciation means the size of the trust has grown significantly; assets under management now approach £1bn.
21 Oct 16
STM* (STM): Acquisition of London & Colonial (CORP) | Hurricane Energy (HUR): £70m placing and open offer (BUY) | Firestone Diamonds* (FDI): Liqhobong commissioning update (BUY) | Accsys (AXS): Acorn aiming to be a mighty oak – analyst interview (BUY) | Avacta* (AVCT): Act now… – analyst interview (CORP) | Tristel* (TSTL): Full year 2016 results – analyst interview (CORP)
Acquisition of London & Colonial
21 Oct 16
The acquisition of LCH for up to £5.4m adds a SIPP offer to STM’s portfolio as well as strengthening the group's Life and QROPS books. Employing cash, debt and an element of deferred purchase terms makes the deal usefully earnings-enhancing, adding £0.5m to 2017 estimates. Forecast EPS of 5.9p for 2017 places the shares on a PE multiple of 8.0x, while retaining net cash on the balance sheet leaves the group well positioned to maintain its commitment to a progressive dividend policy.
UK Housebuilding Sector: Q3 2016 - “I am Steve McQueen”
11 Oct 16
Steve was street savvy, but he was not the smartest knife in the drawer, which makes his Delphic comment to Robert Vaughn all the more surprising. What Steve was saying is that “it’s not over yet”; that there is still a lot more to come (sadly for McQueen, who died in 1980 aged 50, it was a future that was not his). The same is true of Brexit and the collateral undulations that it has riven in the UK Housebuilding Sector. Immediately post-the-Brexit-vote, the UK Housebuilding Sector tanked 36% in value in two trading days (24 and 27 June with a weekend in between); and at one stage was off almost 40%.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 21-10-2016
21 Oct 16
Xaar has announced that its FD, Alex Bevis, will be leaving to pursue other opportunities after almost 6 years with the group. A search is underway for his replacement and Alex will remain with Xaar until 24th March 2017. While Alex’s departure is disappointing, Xaar’s strategy remains on track, with new product launches expected to drive near term organic sales growth and a target of £220m sales by 2020. This reflects stronger leverage of Xaar’s innovative technology into a broader spread of end products and markets, with the £220m expected to be composed of broadly equal contributions from ceramics, packaging & product printing, Thin film/P4, and partnerships/M&A. Prospects for the group are exciting, with positive news flow on product launches and end markets anticipated over the year ahead.