Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Natixis. We currently have 12 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Natixis released its numbers for Q3 17. Total revenues at €2.21bn were 1.3% above expectations and our own forecasts, driven especially by the investment solutions (IS) division. Total expenses at €1.53bn were in line with expectations and slightly higher than our forecasts (€1.52bn). With total loan losses in line as well (but below our expectations), net operating income at €674m was 5.5% above expectations and our expectations. The CET1 ratio at 11.5% was 20bp higher qoq confirming once again (if needed) Natixis’ ability to generate around 100bp of excess capital each year.
Natixis announced this morning that it has just acquired an Australian asset manager, Investors Mutual Limited (IML), for €103m, amounting to a majority stake of 51.9%. This is the first major acquisition in Australia and increases NGAM’s exposure to the local retail market and the Australian superannuation industry (superannuation is the Australian pension system, roughly a retail market). IML’s assets under management amount to €6bn, mainly invested in Australian shares. This is not a major game-changer for Natixis and its impact on the CET1 ratio is rather limited (at 15bp on an 11.3% CET1 ratio at the end of July 2017), but this perfectly fits with Natixis’ strategy in the asset-gathering industry. This should be taken as the beginning of new growth in the Asia Pacific market. While rumours of the AXA IM acquisition are still in the air, we prefer this kind of acquisition, which is NGAM’s DNA (this acquisition indeed represents NGAM’s 21st affiliate).
Natixis announced on 08/09/2017 that it is in the process of acquiring 40% of BPCE Assurances from Macif and Maif (owning respectively 25% and 15%). As of today, this gives Natixis Assurances (Natixis’ insurance business) almost the exclusive distribution of both life and non-life insurance contracts within both Banque Populaires’ and Caisse d’Epargnes’ retail networks. There remains indeed only BPCE IARD left, which is 50% owned by Covéa and is responsible for selling property and casualty insurance contracts in the Banques Populaires network. With Natixis’s investor day looming, there might therefore be some more news or, failing that, there should be more clarity on 20 November 2017 regarding the mid-term strategy in the insurance business. These acquisitions are the latest two episodes in this transformation which started some years ago with BPCE’s ambition to internalise the insurance activities entirely (in November 2013, BPCE had announced the end of its contract with CNP Assurances regarding the distribution of life-insurance contracts with the Caisses d’Epargne network).
Natixis has released its Q2 17 numbers. Total income at €2.4bn is far above expectations and our own expectations (respectively 8% and 8.3%). Despite this strong growth, total expenses were still under control at €1.6bn, 3.3% above consensus’ forecasts and 7.7% above ours. With loan losses in line with expectations, profit before tax at €831m is 20% above expectations and 13% above our own forecasts. The CET1 ratio at 11.3% is 30bp higher qoq.
Natixis released its Q1 17 numbers. Total revenues at €2.35bn are 5% higher than consensus’ expectations and 8% higher than our own forecasts. Total expenses at €1,771m are therefore mechanically higher than expectations (respectively 5% and 9% higher than consensus’ forecasts and ours). With loan losses in line with expectations, profit before tax is 6.7% higher than consensus’ expectations and 11% higher than ours. The pro forma CET1 ratio at 11% is 20bp higher qoq (adjusted for the 50% pay-out ratio).
Natixis has just released its Q4 16 earnings. Total revenues at €2.52bn were 6% higher than expectations (and 5% higher than our own expectations). Total expenses were therefore mechanically higher than expectations at €1.65bn (versus €1.57bn expected by the consensus and us). Loan losses at -€60m were also better than expected (-€80m as for the consensus). All in all, operating profit at €801m was 8% higher than expectations and 7% higher than our forecasts. The CET1 ratio at 10.8% (fully-loaded except for DTA which remains phased-in) is 20bp lower qoq (to the benefit of an (expected) €0.10 exceptional dividend). Total dividend at €0.35 is in line with expectations.
Natixis has just released its Q3 16 results. Total income is roughly in line with expectations at €1.92bn but 2.6% higher versus our own expectations (once adjusted for corporate centre revenues). Total expenses are, however, 2.1% above consensus expectations and 2% above our expectations. Loan losses at €69m are below consensus expectations (at €81m) and above our €58m forecasts. All in all, operating revenues at €408m are 2.5% short of expectations but 4% higher than our numbers. The CET1 ratio at 11.2% is 20bp higher qoq and 60bp higher versus Q4 15.
Natixis released its Q2 16 earnings. Total revenues are 4% higher than expectations. With costs 4% higher than consensus forecasts and total loan losses in line with expectations, the operating profit is 4% higher than expectations. CET1 ratio at 11% (after accrual dividend) is 20bp higher than Q1 16 and 225bp above the ratio required by regulators.
Natixis released its Q1 16 earnings this morning. Total revenues at €2.08bn are 0.5% short of expectations. Expenses were 2% higher than forecasts due to a higher contribution to the Single resolution fund and expenses in the CIB. Cost of risk at €88m, although higher than the Q1 15 number of €78m, is in line with expectations. Reported profit before tax at €407m (of which -€13m non-operating items) is therefore 8% lower than forecasts. The fully-loaded CET1 ratio (after payment of the dividend – a 50% pay-out ratio) is 20bp higher than in the last quarter at 9.9%.
Natixis' Q4 15 earnings release: Strong results versus expectations as revenues are higher than expectations and the cost of risk much better than expected, profit before tax is 20% ahead of consensus. Natixis has just still proven its ability to create value for shareholders as the CET1 ratio is at 12.2% (phased-in and before dividends). The payout ratio is 50% and a €0.10ps dividend has been announced.
Natixis' Q3 earnings release was quite strong. Total revenues were a bit lower than expected (at €1,956m), 2% short of expectations. Total expenses were roughly in line with expectations and cost of risk a bit lower than expected. PBT is therefore roughly in line with expectations. CET1 ratio is 20bp higher than Q2 15 (11.2% vs 11%).
Total revenues (excluding exceptional items) were slightly higher than company-compiled consensus (€2,175m vs €2,128m). Expenses were in line with consensus and so was the cost of risk. Gross operating income after tax was therefore 9% higher than consensus. The good news also being that growth was not made exclusively at the cost of the balance sheet as RWA recorded a 1% drop ytd (at constant exchange rates).
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Natixis. We currently have 12 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|13Nov17 16:35||GNW||NATIXIS : Natixis restated quarterly series|
|07Nov17 16:35||GNW||NATIXIS : THIRD-QUARTER 2017 AND NINE-MONTH 2017 RESULTS|
|01Aug17 16:35||GNW||NATIXIS :SECOND QUARTER 2017 AND FIRST HALF-YEAR 2017 RESULTS|
|09May17 16:36||GNW||NATIXIS:2017 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS|
|15Feb17 06:58||GNW||NATIXIS :STATEMENT FEBRUARY 15, 2017|
|09Feb17 16:35||GNW||NATIXIS :FOURTH-QUARTER 2016 and FULL-YEAR 2016 RESULTS|
|09Dec16 13:44||GNW||NATIXIS :Number of shares and voting rights at 30 November 2016|
Clean Invest Africa—Introduction due around 14 Nov. Vehicle established to identify investment opportunities and acquisitions in renewable and clean energy projects/companies or alternative technologies that are used in a socially and environmentally responsible way that will aid the development of the African continent. Beeks Financial Cloud -niche cloud computing and connectivity provider for automated (algorithmic) trading in Forex and Futures financial products . Raising £7m. Mkt Cap c.£24.5m. Due 27 Nov. FYJun17 rev £4m. Profitable at operating level. City Pub Group - owner and operator of an estate of 34 premium pubs across Southern England. £30m raise. Consistent track record of strong revenue and EBITDA growth, with a three year CAGR from FY14 to FY16 of 34.9% and 44.8% respectively, and an EBITDA margin of 14.7% in FY16. Due late Nov. Offer TBA. Boku - Independent direct carrier billing company. Revenues were up 21% to US$10.2 in HYJun17. Q32017, revenues grew to $6.5m, up by 44%. The Company also saw continued growth across all of its key metrics: user numbers, total payment and a positive adjusted EBITDA for the month of September 2017. Due 20 Nov. Offer TBA. Ten Lifestyle Hldgs. Technology-enabled lifestyle and travel platform providing trusted concierge services to the world's wealthy. Net revenue increased from £20m in the year ended 31 August 2015 to £33m in the year ended 31 August 2017, a compound annual growth rate of 29%. Offer TBA, expected 27 Nov 2017. OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m. OG Graphite, brownfield development-stage graphite company focused on the reactivation of its wholly-owned Kearney natural flake graphite mine and mill located 280 km north of Toronto, Canada. Offer TBA, expected mid November.
Companies: TRIN IBPO BGO AFHP AMYT STM RLD C4XD NKTN ENET
Frenkel Topping* (FEN): Doubling profits in a hiatus (CORP) | SRT Marine Systems* (SRT): Projecting a strong H2 (CORP)
Companies: Frenkel Topping Group SRT Marine Systems
In the November edition of the Hardman Monthly Newsletter, Nigel Hawkins assesses the achievements of AIM – and how it has thrived, despite a challenging financial environment, in recent years.
Companies: SPH AVO SCLP VAL AGY CLIG TRX AVCT APH CMH MCL MUR
Keystone Law Group— full service law firm with over 250 self-employed lawyers . Due late Nov. Offer TBA | Beeks Financial Cloud -niche cloud computing and connectivity provider for automated (algorithmic) trading in Forex and Futures financial products . Raising £7m. Mkt Cap c.£24.5m. Due 27 Nov. FYJun17 rev £4m. Profitable at operating level | City Pub Group - owner and operator of an estate of 34 premium pubs across Southern England. £30m raise. Consistent track record of strong revenue and EBITDA growth, with a three year CAGR from FY14 to FY16 of 34.9% and 44.8% respectively, and an EBITDA margin of 14.7% in FY16. Due late Nov. Offer TBA | Boku - Independent direct carrier billing company. Revenues were up 21% to US$10.2 in HYJun17. Q32017, revenues grew to $6.5m, up by 44%. The Company also saw continued growth across all of its key metrics: user numbers, total payment and a positive adjusted EBITDA for the month of September 2017. Due 20 Nov. Offer raising £45m at 59p with mkt cap of £125.9m | Ten Lifestyle Hldgs. Technology-enabled lifestyle and travel platform providing trusted concierge services to the world's wealthy. Net revenue increased from £20m in the year ended 31 August 2015 to £33m in the year ended 31 August 2017, a compound annual growth rate of 29%. Offer TBA, expected 27 Nov 2017 | OnTheMarket—Intention to float on AIM to raise c.£50m which will be used to fund the growth of the OnTheMarket.com portal, already the third biggest UK residential property portal provider. Expected valuation £200m to £250m | OG Graphite, brownfield development-stage graphite company focused on the reactivation of its wholly-owned Kearney natural flake graphite mine and mill located 280 km north of Toronto, Canada. Offer TBA, expected mid November |
Companies: FRR AST ABDP BZT AVCT MTFB WEY FFI SAV
Be Heard (BHRD LN) Building on a successful launch | Carr’s Group (CARR LN) Healthy pickup in business momentum | Frontier Smart Technologies Group (FST LN) Further contract win with HARMAN | Senior (SNR LN) Trading in line; PBT to be slightly ahead
Companies: SNR CARR BHRD FST
Prudential’s 9M 17 Life new business profit increased by 17% to £2,469m. The Asian business posted a growing new business profit increase of 15% lfl (up 24% as reported) to £1,616m. APE sales increased by 5% (up 14% as reported). Eastspring AuM reached £44.3bn. In the USA, Jackson’s new business profit increased by 17% (up 28% as reported) to £619m. In the UK & Europe, M&G Prudential delivered external asset management net inflows of £9.9bn. In addition, continued demand for risk-managed solutions has driven life insurance APE sales growth of 25%, with new business profit up 31% to £234m. This includes APE sales growth of 32% from PruFund-backed products, which generated net inflows of £6.6bn. M&G Prudential’s total AuM increased to £336bn. The estimated group shareholder Solvency II surplus at 30 September 2017 was £12.8bn, equivalent to a cover ratio of 201%.
Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) In line H1 update; Introducing FY’20 forecasts | Fenner (FENR LN) Upgrades, with more to come | Genus (GNS LN) Trading in line with expectations | Harwood Wealth (HW LN) Ahead of expectations, upgrading forecasts | Xaar (XAR LN) Further operational developments
Companies: FENR GNS XAR CLG HW/
Lok’nStore* (LOK): Expanding the pipeline (CORP) | Revolution Bars (RBG): Revised forecasts (BUY) | OptiBiotix* (OPTI): SlimBiome supply agreement (CORP) | Velocity Composites (VEL): Strong H2 uplift delivers trading in line (CORP) | Lombard Risk Management* (LRM): Challenger bank selects AgileREPORTER (CORP)
Companies: LOK RBG OPTI VEL LRM
Further evidence that the shrewder investor prefers a smaller company, the Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to Professor Thaler, an avowed fan of the smaller brethren. Back down to earth, all markets continue to make headway, with the smaller company indices continuing to lead the way. Despite the apparent deadlock in the Brexit process, life appears to carry on. The MPC meeting on 2 November and the Budget on 22 November may offer greater insight. In Share News & Views, we comment on recent updates from Cropper*, Halstead, Norcros, Tricorn* Walker Greenbank and Wincanton.
Companies: APC BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM GETB PCF PPIX SNX SPRP SQS TCN W7L
Aviva is to acquire Irish Life insurer Friends First to consolidate its position as one of Ireland’s largest composite insurers. It’s a good acquisition being acquired from Dutch insurer Achmea (formerly Eureko) at what we view to be a great price at £116m or just 0.8x NAV. The transaction is expected to meet Aviva’s operating return on capital hurdle from year one and to significantly exceed the hurdle thereafter. It will boost Aviva’s share of the life market in Ireland to 15% to match its share of the non-life market. We view Aviva as undervalued and on track to deliver a good increase in 2017 EPS. Buy
Third quarter results remained depressed by an elevated cost of risk while the top line proved pretty resilient. The capital position improved further but the low non-performing assets coverage remains a major question mark that will determine the pace of the group’s future profitability recovery.
Companies: Banco Comercial Portugues
Harwood Wealth has issued a strong full year trading statement. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the full year are now expected to be ahead of market expectations. Performance has been positive during H2 with the combination of organic and acquisitive growth continuing. We upgrade our FY17e EBITDA forecast by 11% to £4.0m. With a pipeline of acquisitions, organic growth potential and a well capitalised balance sheet, we see intrinsic value at >230p in time.
Companies: Harwood Wealth Management
We are further downgrading our estimates for Brush following Siemens’ downbeat comments yesterday on the large gas turbine market. It now expects annual unit volumes in the 2018-20 period to fall by 40% compared with 2016 levels. As a result, we now expect Brush sales and profits to continue to fall in 2018 before stabilising in 2019. We have also reduced our valuation of Brush by £155m to £240m, resulting in 3% cut in target price to 271p. We note that Brush now accounts for less than 5% of sum-of-the-parts value.
Companies: Melrose Industries
Ahead of today’s investor conference Pru has announced yet another strong performance for Q3 with new business sales at £5174m APE (+16% or +8% at CRE) and more importantly new business profitability at £2469m (+26% or +17% at CRE). The Q3 new business margin has improved to 47.7% (Q3 2016: 43.9%) with improvements in the UK, US and Asia. The growth and new business profit in Q3 reinforce our SOTP valuation model that generates our 2210p target price. We believe that today will be about emphasising the huge opportunities that exist in each of these areas. In Asia the health, protection and savings of the rapidly growing middle class, in the US the retirement income needs of the baby-boomers and in the UK the opportunity created by the converging life and savings markets. Buy.
Finsbury Growth & Income Trust (FGT) aims to generate long-term capital and income growth from a concentrated portfolio of primarily UK equities. Manager Nick Train has recently initiated a position in Manchester United, which is FGT’s first new holding since 2015. He believes that the football club has a very strong and valuable franchise, along with a history of generating positive returns for shareholders. FGT has a long-term track record of outperformance versus its FTSE All-Share index benchmark, with higher returns over the last one, three, five and 10 years. The trust has a progressive dividend policy; the FY17 dividend was 8.4% higher than in FY16, despite a meaningful dividend cut at portfolio company Pearson.
Companies: Finsbury Growth & Income Trust