Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Natixis. We currently have 14 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Natixis released its numbers for Q1 18. Total revenues at €2.41bn were 2% higher than expected beating expectations in all operating divisions. Total expenses were just 0.5% higher than expected. Hence, profit before loan losses at €618m was 7% above expectations. Natixis has once again been beating the market this quarter (especially at a time when its French peers have been struggling to present investors with decent numbers). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock as we believe its special position within BPCE should provide more value (in asset gathering, insurance and the fast-growing market of payments).
Natixis released its numbers for Q4 17 this morning. Total income at €2.5bn is 7.5% higher than expected and 1.3% above our own forecasts. The beat was mainly driven by a strong quarter in asset management. Total expenses at €1.74bn were mechanically higher than expected (+4%) and still higher than our own (too optimistic) expectations. Profit before loan losses at €760m was therefore 16% above expectations and 2.6% below our own forecasts. The CET1 ratio at 10.65% (10.5% pro forma the impact of IFRS9) is 55bp lower qoq (due to the impact of the dividend booked in this quarter).
Natixis released its numbers for Q3 17. Total revenues at €2.21bn were 1.3% above expectations and our own forecasts, driven especially by the investment solutions (IS) division. Total expenses at €1.53bn were in line with expectations and slightly higher than our forecasts (€1.52bn). With total loan losses in line as well (but below our expectations), net operating income at €674m was 5.5% above expectations and our expectations. The CET1 ratio at 11.5% was 20bp higher qoq confirming once again (if needed) Natixis’ ability to generate around 100bp of excess capital each year.
Natixis announced this morning that it has just acquired an Australian asset manager, Investors Mutual Limited (IML), for €103m, amounting to a majority stake of 51.9%. This is the first major acquisition in Australia and increases NGAM’s exposure to the local retail market and the Australian superannuation industry (superannuation is the Australian pension system, roughly a retail market). IML’s assets under management amount to €6bn, mainly invested in Australian shares. This is not a major game-changer for Natixis and its impact on the CET1 ratio is rather limited (at 15bp on an 11.3% CET1 ratio at the end of July 2017), but this perfectly fits with Natixis’ strategy in the asset-gathering industry. This should be taken as the beginning of new growth in the Asia Pacific market. While rumours of the AXA IM acquisition are still in the air, we prefer this kind of acquisition, which is NGAM’s DNA (this acquisition indeed represents NGAM’s 21st affiliate).
Natixis announced on 08/09/2017 that it is in the process of acquiring 40% of BPCE Assurances from Macif and Maif (owning respectively 25% and 15%). As of today, this gives Natixis Assurances (Natixis’ insurance business) almost the exclusive distribution of both life and non-life insurance contracts within both Banque Populaires’ and Caisse d’Epargnes’ retail networks. There remains indeed only BPCE IARD left, which is 50% owned by Covéa and is responsible for selling property and casualty insurance contracts in the Banques Populaires network. With Natixis’s investor day looming, there might therefore be some more news or, failing that, there should be more clarity on 20 November 2017 regarding the mid-term strategy in the insurance business. These acquisitions are the latest two episodes in this transformation which started some years ago with BPCE’s ambition to internalise the insurance activities entirely (in November 2013, BPCE had announced the end of its contract with CNP Assurances regarding the distribution of life-insurance contracts with the Caisses d’Epargne network).
Natixis has released its Q2 17 numbers. Total income at €2.4bn is far above expectations and our own expectations (respectively 8% and 8.3%). Despite this strong growth, total expenses were still under control at €1.6bn, 3.3% above consensus’ forecasts and 7.7% above ours. With loan losses in line with expectations, profit before tax at €831m is 20% above expectations and 13% above our own forecasts. The CET1 ratio at 11.3% is 30bp higher qoq.
Natixis released its Q1 17 numbers. Total revenues at €2.35bn are 5% higher than consensus’ expectations and 8% higher than our own forecasts. Total expenses at €1,771m are therefore mechanically higher than expectations (respectively 5% and 9% higher than consensus’ forecasts and ours). With loan losses in line with expectations, profit before tax is 6.7% higher than consensus’ expectations and 11% higher than ours. The pro forma CET1 ratio at 11% is 20bp higher qoq (adjusted for the 50% pay-out ratio).
Natixis has just released its Q4 16 earnings. Total revenues at €2.52bn were 6% higher than expectations (and 5% higher than our own expectations). Total expenses were therefore mechanically higher than expectations at €1.65bn (versus €1.57bn expected by the consensus and us). Loan losses at -€60m were also better than expected (-€80m as for the consensus). All in all, operating profit at €801m was 8% higher than expectations and 7% higher than our forecasts. The CET1 ratio at 10.8% (fully-loaded except for DTA which remains phased-in) is 20bp lower qoq (to the benefit of an (expected) €0.10 exceptional dividend). Total dividend at €0.35 is in line with expectations.
Natixis has just released its Q3 16 results. Total income is roughly in line with expectations at €1.92bn but 2.6% higher versus our own expectations (once adjusted for corporate centre revenues). Total expenses are, however, 2.1% above consensus expectations and 2% above our expectations. Loan losses at €69m are below consensus expectations (at €81m) and above our €58m forecasts. All in all, operating revenues at €408m are 2.5% short of expectations but 4% higher than our numbers. The CET1 ratio at 11.2% is 20bp higher qoq and 60bp higher versus Q4 15.
Natixis released its Q2 16 earnings. Total revenues are 4% higher than expectations. With costs 4% higher than consensus forecasts and total loan losses in line with expectations, the operating profit is 4% higher than expectations. CET1 ratio at 11% (after accrual dividend) is 20bp higher than Q1 16 and 225bp above the ratio required by regulators.
Natixis released its Q1 16 earnings this morning. Total revenues at €2.08bn are 0.5% short of expectations. Expenses were 2% higher than forecasts due to a higher contribution to the Single resolution fund and expenses in the CIB. Cost of risk at €88m, although higher than the Q1 15 number of €78m, is in line with expectations. Reported profit before tax at €407m (of which -€13m non-operating items) is therefore 8% lower than forecasts. The fully-loaded CET1 ratio (after payment of the dividend – a 50% pay-out ratio) is 20bp higher than in the last quarter at 9.9%.
Natixis' Q4 15 earnings release: Strong results versus expectations as revenues are higher than expectations and the cost of risk much better than expected, profit before tax is 20% ahead of consensus. Natixis has just still proven its ability to create value for shareholders as the CET1 ratio is at 12.2% (phased-in and before dividends). The payout ratio is 50% and a €0.10ps dividend has been announced.
Natixis' Q3 earnings release was quite strong. Total revenues were a bit lower than expected (at €1,956m), 2% short of expectations. Total expenses were roughly in line with expectations and cost of risk a bit lower than expected. PBT is therefore roughly in line with expectations. CET1 ratio is 20bp higher than Q2 15 (11.2% vs 11%).
Total revenues (excluding exceptional items) were slightly higher than company-compiled consensus (€2,175m vs €2,128m). Expenses were in line with consensus and so was the cost of risk. Gross operating income after tax was therefore 9% higher than consensus. The good news also being that growth was not made exclusively at the cost of the balance sheet as RWA recorded a 1% drop ytd (at constant exchange rates).
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Natixis. We currently have 14 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|17May18 16:35||GNW||NATIXIS :2018 FIRST QUARTER RESULTS|
|27Apr18 17:07||GNW||NATIXIS : François Riahi appointed CEO of Natixis|
|26Apr18 22:34||GNW||NATIXIS : Laurent Mignon succeeds François Pérol as Chairman of Groupe BPCE's Management Board|
|13Feb18 16:35||GNW||NATIXIS :4Q17 AND 2017 RESULTS|
|27Dec17 16:40||GNW||NATIXIS :Confirmation of prudential capital requirements by the ECB|
|26Dec17 07:30||GNW||NATIXIS : Natixis sells its stake in CACEIS, in line with the objectives of "New Dimension"|
|06Dec17 17:17||GNW||NATIXIS :Natixis and ODDO BHF are considering a long-term partnership aimed at creating a leading equity-market player in continental Europe|
Last Friday we hosted our second Listed Law conference, London’s only investor event focussed on the business of law in a listed context. We are fascinated that a sector involving many hundreds of billions of dollars of activity each year in high added-value services only offers public market investors fewer than a dozen equity market investment opportunities globally, with an aggregate market cap of only £4.3bn (of which Burford Capital is £3.3bn). With high costs driving change in the way legal services are bought and sold, our speakers offered fascinating insights on emerging business models. These require capital and talent to function fully and our conference theme paid particular attention to how that talent is attracted, deployed and retained. We conclude that more public investment opportunities are likely. A video of each presentation is embedded on each company profile herein and the slide packs themselves are available on e-mail by request.
Companies: BUR GOR GTLY
Numis has made good progress in the first half of 2018 with particularly strong revenues in corporate broking and advisory and a resilient result from the equities activity. Investment in people and platforms to support future growth and our expectation of lower portfolio gains restrains our earnings estimates for the moment but healthy deal pipelines, continued growth in the corporate client base and the strong balance sheet are positive indicators for the future, subject to market fluctuations.
Companies: Numis Corporation
Prior to the financial crisis of 2008/09, it was widely believed in the stock market that certain sectors – most notably utilities, pharmaceuticals, food retailing and tobacco – were far less vulnerable to market downturns.
Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BNO BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GTLY GDR INL KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB NIPT PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL
Today's AGM statement from S & U supports our view that the Group has built a solid basis from which to deliver further growth in returns, earnings and dividends in the short to medium term. We are encouraged by the rate of growth in monthly applications, customers and collections. All point positively to the Group's position in the market and the nature of its non-prime car finance loan book. The impairment to revenue charge has increased but we believe that this is due to transitional mix changes which are being addressed by a more selective approach to recent underwriting. As a result, we see no reason to change our forecasts on the back of this statement. However, we raise our theoretical value to reflect the recent share price performances and valuations of the non-standard lending peer group. On a range of comparative ratios, we derive a theoretical value of 3396p; 6% higher than previously and 22% above the current share price.
Three potential bidders for IWG highlight the depth of capital seeking to gain exposure to the flexible work space market, with positive read-across to Workspace. While leasehold providers to this market are rapidly building share, we continue to prefer the added control and flexibility of Workspace’s freehold approach.
Companies: Workspace Group
This ominous-sounding term originated from the work of famed Swedish meteorologist, Tor Bergeron (1897-1977), but it only entered popular vernacular this year – and there have been ample opportunities in 2018 to use it.
Companies: ABBY BDEV BWY BKG BVS CRN CSP CRST GLE INL MCS PSN RDW SPR TW/ TEF WJG
The MPC faces this dilemma on Thursday. Just a few weeks ago, the decision appeared straightforward. Since, the outcome has become less obvious. A slew of weak economic indicators, not least a slowing of UK Q1 GDP growth to 0.1% point to this conclusion. Markets have rallied, due in part to renewed sterling weakness. We have also seen further M&A activity, especially in the FTSE 100 which may extend to smaller companies, in due course. The results marathon is slowing. In Share News & Views, we comment on Advanced Oncotherapy* Bloomsbury, Cronin*, OnTheMarket* and Synectics*.
Companies: APC BMS CRON CRPR ECSC ESC EUSP FDM GETB PCF SNX SPRP TCN W7L
With a successfully completed £115m (gross) equity raise behind it, PHP is well funded for continuing growth in its investment portfolio, targeting returns that are supportive the progressive dividend policy, now in its 22nd year. The prospects for cash deployment look positive, with a c £151m pipeline of investment prospects, of which more than a third are at a highly advanced stage of negotiation. Reduced gearing leaves Primary Health Properties (PHP) well placed to seize additional opportunities that may arise, with the NHS commissioning of primary healthcare investment finally showing signs of acceleration, and the Republic of Ireland (RoI) operation becoming established, with a fourth asset recently added.
Companies: Primary Health Properties
Jackpotjoy plc’s (JPJ’s) Q1 revenues rose 13% to £80.7m, driven primarily by diversification and growth in international markets, with its Vera&John division (26% of revenues) increasing 35%. The earn-out period for the Spanish division has now ended and, given its strong performance, the total contingent consideration increased 20% in the quarter to £72.1m, with £63.8m payable this year. Our headline revenue and profit forecasts remain broadly unchanged and we continue to expect significant deleverage after the final major earn-out payment in June 2018. The stock trades at 7.8x EV/EBITDA and 6.5x P/E for FY19, a meaningful discount to peers.
The CY17 results were a 34% beat at the EPS line. Given the positive post balance sheet date news regarding the Teinver sale and the $180m bond issue, we have materially increased our forecasts.
Companies: Burford Capital
Q1’18 was outstanding. Revenue of $297.3m was +284% YoY and EBITDA of $237.3m was +418% YoY. New customers of 72,960 were +228% and Active customers +204% to 218,187.
First quarter trends enjoyed stronger-than-expected net interest margin expansion, albeit offset by lower non-interest income (notably from insurance). During this period, the group generated 50bp of excess equity.
Companies: Lloyds Banking Group
HY18 results were good. Net new inflows into Discretionary grew at an annualised rate of 7.7%, taking Total Discretionary FUM to £34.3bn.
Companies: Brewin Dolphin
2018 is the year of the Great Exhibition of the North. This summer, Newcastle and Gateshead will play host to a government-sponsored, 80-day marathon of events. Billed as the largest event in England this year, the Great Exhibition will showcase the best of the North East’s art, culture, design and innovation and we expect it to highlight the region’s ongoing success in high-end engineering, technology and life sciences. It may also reflect on the success of the North East’s plcs, the most striking example of which is Sage’s transition from 1980’s start-up to £9bn FTSE100 stalwart. We remain on the look out for the next Sage and expect the region to continue to produce attractive IPO candidates following Ramsdens’ success last year. Overall 2017 was a positive year for the region’s listed companies, one highlight of which was the takeover of Quantum Pharma, an N+1 Singer client, by Clinigen for £150m. We are confident that 2018 will be another successful year. Our top regional picks this year are Hargreaves Services, Zytronic and Applied Graphene Materials.
Companies: AGM BWY GRI GRG HSP IDH KMK NTG RFX UTW VNET ZYT
Since our last missive, we have continued to experience volatility but there have been some signs recently of increasing stabilisation, although some nervousness clearly still persists. We have a Spring Statement from the Chancellor of Exchequer on 13 March where he will respond to the forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. We have the prospect of a rise in interest rates in the short run, with further increases likely over the medium term with negative implications for ‘defensives’. In Share News & Views, we comment on Hargreaves Services, RWS Holdings, Staffline and Synectics*.
Companies: APC BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM GETB PCF SNX SPRP TCN W7L