Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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Positive Q1 17 results, ADD confirmed
09 Feb 17
Elior released its Q1 17 results, highlighting an 8.1% reported sales growth largely reflecting the acquisitions completed since 2015 (+8.1% impact) and 2.9% organic growth (excluding the 1.8% negative impact from the voluntary exit of non- and low-profitable contracts) which was fuelled by the strong sales momentum, in particular in the US and the UK. France is holding tight In Contract Catering, France held tight, posting an 8.5% reported growth (o/w +9.7% from recent acquisitions). Despite the selective approach of contract renewals, the business benefited from sustained business development. The portfolio reshuffle (-1.8% impact) and unfavourable calendar effects (-1%, particularly in Healthcare) weighed on organic growth (+0.2% yoy, +1.1% excluding voluntary exits) but B&I was strong (high-end services notably). International activities grew by 17.9% reportedly (+19.8% impact from recent acquisitions) while organic growth (+0.6%, +2.7% excluding contract exits) was stimulated by the start-up of new contracts (in the UK and the US). Temporary brakes to ease in 2017 with strong fundamentals in International Concessions Concession Contracts revealed a 3.9% lfl growth while the contribution of the portfolio of contracts in the French railways (formerly run by Autogrill) boosted sales growth by 3.4%. France (-3.4% lfl, +5.1% reported) was penalised by refurbishment works (on renewed contracts) and the termination of several contracts in motorways, while airports suffered from the termination of the Roissy CdG contract. The International business performed strongly (+8.7% lfl) with the confirmed recovery in the traffic volumes in Spanish, Portuguese and US motorways, while the openings of new points of sales offset the closure of several areas in Italy. In the US, new points of sales and growing traffic trends in the US boosted the airport activities.
A cocktail of catalysts
18 Feb 16
We initiate coverage on Elior (€2.8bn market capitalisation) with a BUY recommendation. The stock stands out in the Catering and Concession markets given its niche position and its best-in-class track-record in terms of operating margins compared to peers. Also, we give a premium on the management and the CEO in particular, whose strategy looks clear and relevant. *Our recommendation reflects the following drivers:* *1)* Big contracts won in 2015: +In France:+ * €700m of sales over 10 years won with the SNCF (c.10% growth is coming starting in FY17, fully enforced in FY18). In France (concession), Elior has renegotiated contracts and extended maturity (until 2023 and 2024) of the existing portfolio in railway stations. So the portfolio for the next 10 years in the French railway stations is secured. * A new organisation and management have been put in place over the past three years (including a new CEO and CFO, a new purchasing director from February 2016, a new COO of B&I, a new COO of Healthcare…). The marketing and purchasing functions have been paired together. * Strong trading in October and November 2015 to favour the signing of new contracts. * Strong position in the B&I segment. +In the US:+ from 2017, a $250m contract (over 10 years, $25m p.a.) won with Gares -> the objective in the US (c.10% of FY15 Concession Catering sales) is to reach $400m of sales by 2020, mainly by organic growth (gain of new contracts, target of c.5% growth LFL p.a.). *2)* 2016 will not fully reflect the strategic moves endorsed in 2015 which was a year of transformation, including: +The cleaning-up of the contract portfolio:+ the contract exits in FY15 will impact FY16 sales by €80m. +Acquisitions:+ * Minorities in Areas. * Acquisition of the US companies STARR, ABL and Cura with expected incremental sales in FY16 of c.$130-135m. * Debt refinancing in H1 15 -> extended maturity (the next one: €900m falls in 2019) and lowered financial costs (financial interest slipped by 20% in FY15). * New organisation and management (incl. new CEO in France). These strategic actions will be enforced and should start to yield benefits from 2017. This is reflected in the moderate improvement of the operating leverage in FY16 compared to Elior’s mid-term objectives (EBITDA margin to improve by 160bp to 10% by 2020). But Elior expects the EBITDA margin to reach 9% in 2017 while it will be pushing the profitability for the contracts. In France, in particular, the Education and Healthcare sectors provide growth potential in terms of operating margins. In these segments, Elior has been a challenger (particularly in Healthcare) and has been lagging B&I’s profitability (where Elior benefits from a better position). The new team put in place in France should help to turnaround these segments. *Main points of caution:* *1* France (50% of FY15 sales) has been recording the highest EBITDA margin level (in both Catering and Concession divisions, see chart below). But the outlook in the French concessions could be hampered by the fallout from the terrorist attacks in Paris (November 2015) on traffic in airports, motorways and railway stations. Elior also lost a concession contract with OIC (c.€15-20m impact on sales in FY16 with further €15-20m in FY17). In Contract Catering, Q4 15 sales were only up 0.9% lfl compared to c.5% in the UK and 2.4% for the division given the weak macro environment. p=. !Latest.png! *2)* Italian comps will be tough in FY16 for the Concession division (the Milan Expo fetched in c.€5m of sales) but the country continues to increase in terms of trading and the airport business has proved quite strong and healthy. *3)* While M&A stands as one of Elior’s catalysts, we have no visibility yet as regards to the agenda over the next five years in terms of the timing or size of amounts to be spent. Also, transaction multiples could also rise in the coming years. M&A operations also often bear execution risks with potential costs related to the integration of the new business while we can also expect some delays in seeing synergies materialise.
20 Feb 17
Hayward Tyler Group* (HAYT): Trading update and financial position (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDL): Interim results (BUY) | Gemfields* (GEM): Interim results (CORP) | Premaitha Health* (NIPT): Middle East momentum (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): Acquisition update and TE-8 well spud (HOLD) | Proactis* (PHD): Interim trading on track (CORP) | 7digital* (7DIG): Automotive contract win (CORP)
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 22-02-2017
22 Feb 17
CORETX (COR LN) Contract wins and new Lifestyle facility | Gooch & Housego (GHH LN) Solid Q1 trading plus earnings enhancing acquisition of StingRay Optics | NCC Group (NCC LN) Further issues in Assurance | PCI-PAL (PCIP LN) Strong H1 underpins positive outlook | UBM (UBM LN) Results | Verona Pharma (VRP LN) Phase IIa RPL554 add-on trial to tiotropium commenced
N+1 Singer - Gym Group - Not quite a lean, fit & healthy outlook
15 Feb 17
Gym Group has done an excellent job in successfully rolling out a disruptive business model in the health & fitness market. However, we think growth expectations are too high and the shares look expensive on a FY17 P/E of 27x. We expect initial signs of increased competition / cannibalisation and LFL pressure to increase over the next 2-3 years and the shares to de-rate. We pitch our forecasts 5%-14% below consensus and initiate with a Sell recommendation and a 145p target price.
Panmure Morning Note 24-02-2017
24 Feb 17
Upgrades and increased shareholder returns were needed to justify the recent share price rally: they have been duly delivered and we expect a positive response today. FY16 was largely ‘in-line’ and initial FY17 comments, for operating profit growth YOY, are encouraging. Our initial estimate is for consensus upgrades of 5-10%. IAG has confirmed a €500m share buy-back programme, which was well flagged and we think in line with market expectations. Overall a welcome, slightly more positive read for the sector, particularly those with self-help levers. Presentation 9am GMT.
Acceptance of all-cash offer by Kindred Group
23 Feb 17
32Red has agreed an all cash takeover by Kindred, at 196p per share. Together with an approved 4p dividend, this represents a 32.4% premium to last month’s average. This equates to 10.6x EV/EBITDA and 14.3x P/E for 2017, a small premium to the larger peer group. Given 32Red’s brand strength, regulated bias and growth momentum, this appears justified.