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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on THALES SA. We currently have 5 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
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The ugly duckling has become a swan
24 Nov 16
Thales was the ugly duckling of the aerospace & defence sector for many years. However, it delivered organic growth in 2015 for the first time in six years, is closing in on its 9.5-10% EBIT margin target and has won a number of high-value contracts. Its transformation into a swan has seen the stock trading up 32% ytd (vs the SXP -4.5%), on a premium rating of 19.1x FY17e compared to the sector average of 16.5x. Thales’s adaptation into a streamlined, competitive technology company with growing emerging market exposure is well rated, but further catalysts are required.
Boosted by Defence & Security
29 Feb 16
h1. Headline figures Thales posted a record order intake at €18.9bn, up 31% from 2014. Thales, most importantly, returned to organic growth for the first time since 2009. Sales grew 8% to €14.1bn, up 4.5% at constant scope and currency. EBIT also exceeded guidance and consensus expectations at €1,216m, up 23% from the €985m, and resulting in an EBIT margin of 8.6%, up from 7.6% in 2014. As a result, the adjusted net income was up 44% to €809m. In addition, FOCF doubled to €1.1bn as working capital moved favourably and the increase in capex to support future growth remained conservative. EBIT conversion to cash flow stood above 91% for 2015 resulting in the cash position improving to €1,978m from €1bn. Thales has opted to raise its dividend by 21% to €1.36, maintaining its 35% payout ratio to adjusted net income. In terms of targets for 2016, Thales now expects mid single-digit organic sales growth and EBIT to stand in the range of €1,300-1,330m. The medium-term guidance has also been raised with Thales now expecting organic sales growth in the mid single-digits in both 2017 and 2018 thanks to the solid acceleration in order intake over the last 2-3 years.
Strong order intake jump and guidance confirmed
21 Oct 15
Orders over 9M 15 totalled €10.3bn, up 37% yoy so that Thales’ order book now represents more than two years of sales at €28.56bn. Aerospace orders remained stable at €3.15bn as space orders declined compared to an extremely positive year in 2014. Transport segment orders tripled to €2.5bn from €825m over 9M 14. Defence & Security stood at €4,642m, up +32% on 9M 14. The order intake over 9M has been particularly strong due to the high number of orders over €100m in value including three large scale space contracts (from the French Intelligence, European SA and Italian Space agency), and three large signalling contracts in the Transport division (Doha, Hong Kong and London). In defence, Thales has booked the Egyptian Rafale contract as well as Airport security contracts in Oman and the SV Scout contract in the UK. The order intake from emerging markets grew 42% to over €3.2bn. Sales over 9M 15 are up 9% to €9.1bn (+4% on a like-for-like basis and constant FX). Aerospace sales are up 9% to €3.58bn (+2% organically) thanks to favourable commercial avionics sales boosted by the addition of live TV in 2014 and revenues from Space activities following the significant orders in 2014. Transport sales are up 2% to €862m (-3% organically) as lower ticketing revenues were compensated by rail signalling revenues. Defence & Security sales are up 9% to €4.64bn (+6% organically). The segment benefited from the high level of activity across the board: in Defence missions systems with the Indian Mirage modernisation programmes and naval activities; Secure Communication and Information Systems segment revenues were boosted by growth in revenues linked to radio communications (France, the Middle East) as well as cyber security; and Land and Air Systems sales were driven by the ramp up of the Air traffic control programme in the UK as well an increased activity in the armaments and protected vehicle sub-segment. The guidance for the 2015 full year is maintained. With order intake expected to exceed that of 2014, sales are expected to grow low single-digit on an organic basis and EBIT to be in the range of €1.13-1.15bn.
Strengthening cyber security offering with the $400m Vormetric acquisition
20 Oct 15
Thales has announced that it will acquire Vormetric, a leading US provider of data protection solutions for physical, virtual and cloud infrastructures for $400m. Vormetric is based in San Jose, California, and will merge with Thales’ E-security business which also has an office in San Jose. The transaction is expected to close in Q1 16. Thales suggests that the EV/2016 sales stands at 4.3x for this transaction or 5.3x 2015 sales (estimated at $75m). Thales believes that Vormetric should be breakeven in 2016 and that the acquisition will be accretive starting in 2017.
Boosted by a sustainable return to growth in Defence & Security?
24 Jul 15
Thales released a set of very strong figures in H1 15 despite the continuing disappointment of the Transport segment and the willingness of management to remain cautious with respect to the second half of the year. This is certainly understandable given that Thales has traditionally been cautious when it comes to guidances over the last couple of years as it had to rebuild its credibility in the markets and the fact that this is Patrice Caine’s first year as Chairman and CEO and he doesn’t need to put himself at risk. The figures highlight a strong growth in order intake, sales as well as EBIT and FCF generation: Order intake grew 19% in H1 to €6.2bn. Sales were up 11% to €6.35bn (6% organically). EBIT up 18% to €473m (11% organically) up from €402m. As expected FCF was negative (typical seasonality) at -€304m but this is a significant improvement on the -€535m in H1 14 mainly thanks to the down payment on the Egypt Rafale contract. Thales has a solid net cash position of €614m which leaves room for M&A in the years to come, especially with certain Airbus assets coming up for grabs. Guidance has been maintained for an increasing order intake, low single-digit organic increase in sales and a progression in EBIT of 15% vs. 2014. The objective of reaching a 9.5-10% group EBIT margin by 2016-17 has also been confirmed. Looking at the various business segments: In Aerospace, the order intake was down 16% to €1.8bn due to lower bookings in Space as H1 14 was a particularly strong quarter for the Space business. However the trend in Avionics and IFEC (in-flight entertainment and connectivity) remains strong. Sales grew by 5% on an organic basis to €2.5bn boosted by increasing avionic sales, a solid performance from the aftermarket and the higher contribution from IFEC. As a result of these good volumes, EBIT came in at a strong €224m with Thales posting an 8.9% margin. Transport was the clear disappointment of this release, despite a very strong order intake of €1.2bn vs. €637m in H1 14. Sales fell by 6% organically to €569m (flat in absolute terms) and EBIT was a negative €39m (-6.9% margin) as the segment's new management team reviewed the contract portfolio and selected to downgrade the margin on a number of significant contracts (c.20% of the current revenues). Transport is now expected to be below breakeven in 2015 and gradually return to a normalised 5-6% EBIT margin by 2018 as these zero-margin contracts gradually come to completion. The Defence & Security segment was the very positive surprise in the quarter with order intake boosted by the Rafale contracts, up 22% on an organic basis to €3.15bn. Sales came in at €3.2bn, up +9% with solid activity thanks to the Indian Mirage upgrade, the strength in naval activity and the start of the defence Air Traffic Management contract in the UK. As a result, EBIT came in at €301m due to the favourable volume impact and good execution. This figure was slightly boosted to the tune of c.€15m by provision reversals on the completion of security contracts which implies that the underlying margin for the segment came in at 8.8% for H1 15 vs. 7.9% in H1 14.
20 Feb 17
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The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
21 Feb 17
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N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - New quality style screen + 11 quality focus stocks
09 Feb 17
We introduce our fourth and final style screen representing “quality”. This screens for stocks with the best combination of high returns on capital/equity, EBIT margins and operating cash-flow conversion rates. These criteria should help us monitor how strong underlying returns translate into share price performance over time and under varying market conditions. The screen selects the “best” 25 stocks from our universe of just over 500 stocks and, as usual, we focus on a shorter list of stocks we cover or otherwise know and believe to be particularly interesting. We provide brief investment summaries on these focus stocks on pages 4 – 9. We will monitor performance and refresh the screen in approximately 3-4 months time.
Emerging from the clouds
16 Feb 17
Rolls-Royce’s underlying performance in FY16 was ahead of both its own and market expectations. Media focus on the non-cash £4.4bn headline FX loss is missing what looks to be the basis for optimism. As the civil model starts to move from investment in engines for the A350 and A330neo into the aftermarket delivery phase over the remainder of the decade, we think cash flow is likely to improve, particularly if supported by an eventual recovery in Marine.