Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on REXEL SA. We currently have 6 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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North America improves further; CEO to share new growth strategy shortly
28 Aug 16
Rexel reported Q2 FY16 results ahead of our estimates. All the sales growth numbers are at CER and same day basis unless specified otherwise. The total revenue remained under pressure with a decline of 2.3% (vs Q1 16: -1.4%, Q4 15: -2.9%), largely due to the ongoing slump in cable prices (-1.3% impact yoy) and sluggishness in the North America’s industrial sector (Q2 16: -21% yoy, Q1 16: -36%). The region clocked a revenue slump of 4.2% during the quarter (our estimate: -2.8%; accounts for c.34% of group revenue). Despite an improved performance in Scandinavia (Q2 16: +3.5%, Q1 16: -0.1%; our estimate: +0.5%) and flat growth in France (36% of region’s sales), Europe slipped back into the red zone (Q2 16: -0.9% vs Q1 16: +0.3% and our estimate: +0.2%; accounts for 56% of group revenue), largely on the back of a dismal performance in the UK (-6.4% yoy; reflecting an 80% drop in photovoltaic equipment sales after the change in tariff regulations; contributes 14% of region’s sales) and Germany (-2% yoy; contributes 11% of the region’s sales). Furthermore, the challenging macro-economic conditions in China kept Asian growth in negative territory (Q2 16: -7.2%, Q1 16: -1.6%, Q4 15: -1.0%; accounts for c.5% of group revenue) while the Pacific region clocked a revenue growth of +1.4% (vs Q1 16: +2.3%, Q4 15: +1.0%; c.5% of the group revenue). However, a positive calendar and scope effect (2.4% and 0.5% respectively) more than offset the FX headwinds (-2.8%; depreciation of USD and GBP vs EUR), leading to a reported revenue decline of 2.2% (vs Q1 16: -1.9%, Q4 15: 3.2%; our estimate: -2.5%). However, the reported EBITA margin came in at +4.5% (+30bp vs our estimate), on the back of an improved gross margin in Europe (+17bp yoy), Asia-Pacific (+92bp yoy) and continuous opex reduction activity in North America (-15bp yoy as a percentage of sales; reflecting ongoing branch network optimisation programme). Furthermore, the company realised lower financial expenses due to early bond redemption (Q2 16: €43.7m vs €69.8m in Q2 15; worth €650m maturing June 2020) and refinanced at lower interest rate (-160bp vs earlier issue), resulting in a +184% increase in the net income from continuing operations. While management remains cautious about the Brexit impact and industrial activity levels in H2 16 (North America and China), it remains bullish on an improvement in the French construction activity. The company also reconfirmed the FY16 guidance (organic growth: -3% to +1%; EBITA margin: +4.1% to +4.5%).
North America set for a turnaround; uncertainty to continue in Europe
04 Jul 16
Rexel reported Q1 FY16 results broadly in line with our estimates. Revenue decreased by 1.4% at CER (vs Q4 15: -2.9%, Q3 15: -3.3% and our estimate: -1.4%), dragged down once again by the negative impact of copper-cable prices (-1.2% impact on organic growth; USD copper prices dropped by 20% in the quarter) and weak industrial activity in North America (36% revenue drop in the Oil & Gas sector). All the sales growth numbers are at CER unless specified otherwise. Despite good construction activity in the US, revenue growth in the region slumped by 4.4% (vs Q4 15: -6.5%, Q3 15: -7.2%, our estimate: -3%). However, Europe jumped back to positive territory with growth of +0.3% (vs Q4 15: -0.8%, Q3 15: -0.9% and our estimate: -0.4%), largely driven by France (+2.5%), Sweden (+3.6%) and the Netherlands (+7.1%). Similarly, Asia-Pacific clocked +0.2% revenue growth (vs Q4 15: -0.1%, Q3 15: -0.8% and our estimate: -1%) on the back of positive momentum in Australia (+1.3%; positive growth for the first time since Q3 11), despite a dismal performance in Asia (-1.6% yoy; reflecting growth challenges in China). Despite a positive scope effect of €38.1m, the reported revenue was down 1.9% (vs Q4 15: -3.2%, Q3 15: +3.7% and our estimate: -2.6%), pinned down by FX headwinds (largely due to the depreciation of the Canadian dollar and sterling vs the euro) and a negative calendar impact (-0.6%). The adjusted EBITA margin decreased to 3.9% (-20bp yoy), reflecting higher distribution and administrative expenses in Asia-Pacific (+40bp yoy) and Europe (+20bp yoy), partially offset by better ‘opex’ control in the US. The debt refinancing activity completed in FY15 led to lower financial expense (lower effective interest rate in Q1 16: 3.8%, -70bp yoy) and, consequently, higher recurring net income (+13.5% yoy). Management expects a recovery in the French construction activity in the second half of FY16 and has reconfirmed earlier guidance (FY16 lfl revenue growth: -3% to 1% and EBITA margin: 4.1% to 4.5%). Rexel witnessed a major change in the governance structure at the end of June 2016. Rudy Provoost was asked to step down as Chairman and CEO (due to a divergence of views with the Board about the change in governance and his approach to implementing the group’s strategy). Patrick Berard, presently in charge of Rexel’s European operations is appointed as the new CEO, effective on 1 July 2016, and François Henrot (currently Deputy-Chairman and Senior Independent Director) has stepped in as interim Chairman. Ian Meakins (current CEO of Wolseley Plc; due to retire on 31 August 2016) will take-over as non-executive Chairman of the board from 1 October 2016.
A challenging year ahead
25 Feb 16
Rexel announced FY15 results in line with our expectations and the guidance provided in October last year. Annual revenue was down 2.1% at CER, pulled down by lower copper prices ($5,800 per tonne in Q1 vs c.$4,700 in Q4 15), weaker industrial activity in North America (28% drop in the O&G segment), challenging construction activity in France and weaker macro-economic conditions in China. Both the biggest markets, North America (-5.2%) and France (-2.3%), registered a decline. However, the FX benefit of €916.7m, primarily due to stronger USD, resulted in the total revenue growth of 3.5% to €13.5bn. The adjusted EBITA margin tanked 60bp to 4.4% for the full year, in line with our expectation, primarily due to lower gross margin (24.0%, -20bp) and higher distribution and administrative expenses (19.6%, +50bp). Asia Pacific clocked the biggest decline in profitability (EBITA: -247bp yoy), attributable to lower supplier rebates in Australia and a 100bp increase in distribution & admin expenses (bad debt in China and business developments in Asia). In Q4, revenue dipped 2.9% yoy at CER to €3.5bn and the EBITA margin stood at 4.7% (+30bp vs annual EBITA of 4.4%), sequentially better but down 57bp yoy. The company has slashed the dividend pay-out to €0.40 per share (c.45% of net recurring income vs c.70% in 2014), to be paid in cash as opposed to the share dividend option available in previous years. In terms of FY16 outlook, management expects growth of -3% to +1% at CER (including a 1.1% negative impact from the copper price) and an adjusted EBITA margin of 4.1-4.5%. Rexel also announced its 2020 roadmap wherein it is looking to achieve a CER growth target of 1-2% and EBITA growth of at least twice the pace of organic sales growth.
Margins seem to be bottoming-out; management delivers US gross margin improvement
02 Nov 15
After issuing profit warnings twice this year (the last on 7 October), Rexel reported Q3 results were in line and it was reassuring that it maintained guidance (FY15 organic sales decline of 2-3% and EBITA margin of 4.3%-4.5%). Favourable FX helped 3.7% growth in revenue to €3.4bn while constant and same day revenue was down 3.3% (H1: -1%; 9M: -1.8% vs. our estimate of -4.2% for FY15). Despite an organic sales decline on the back of the challenging construction sector in most European markets (including the big one, France) and impact from O&G markets in China, NA, and Australia, Rexel’s Q3 EBITA margin remained stable sequentially at 4.4% (9M 15: 4.3% vs. our FY15 estimate of 4.4%).
Profit warning; longer wait before a recovery
09 Oct 15
Continuing macro-economic headwinds in O&G markets and the slowdown in France led the company to revise downwards its full-year guidance. FY15 organic sales is now expected to witness a fall of 2-3% (vs. our earlier estimate of -3.4%) compared with the previous guidance of at most -2%. The new guidance for the EBITA margin is 4.3-4.5% (vs. our estimate of 4.7%) vs. 4.8% in the previous management outlook. Q3 15 sales are reported to be witnessing a decline of 3.5% organically (constant and same day), with the maximum drop coming in North America (-7% vs. -3.3% in H1) followed by Europe (-1% vs. +0.7% in H1) and Asia Pacific (-1% vs. -1.7% in H1). Rexel’s stock price has lost c.17% since its H1 earnings update in July when the company warned of a higher expected decline in its O&G business and lower copper prices.
Margin guidance challenged; North American top-line weathers headwinds from O&G exposure
12 Aug 15
Rexel released a disappointing H1 15 with O&G headwinds to its North American (NA) and Pacific business coming in much higher than our estimates and management's expectations. The stronger dollar helped the 7.8% growth (Q1: 7.1%, Q2: 8.4%) in reported revenue; Q2 top-line of €3.4bn was broadly in line with the consensus estimate. However, on a constant and same day basis it was -1% for H1 15 vs. our full-year estimate of -1.6% (NA:-3.3% vs. our estimate of 0.2% for the full year). Margins were under pressure in Q2, resulting in the H1 gross margin being 30bp lower yoy to 24.3% (Q1: 24.7%; Q2: 23.8%) and an even higher contraction (70bp yoy) at the EBITA margin which came in at 4.2% (Q1: 4%; Q2: 4.4%; all at a constant basis). - Europe's H1 15 EBITA margin was down 45bp to 5.6% due to the unfavourable mix tilted towards lower-margin cables (which management reassured was a one-off phenomenon), though partially mitigated by reductions in opex; -NA's EBITA margin ended up 90bp lower at 3.6% as the gross margin expansion due to better pricing in Canada was offset by the impact of lower activity in the O&G segment in NA and higher transport costs (related to the US transformation programme). As a result, management revised its expectations of the decline in the O&G business (4-5% of group revenue) from a 10-15% decline to a 20-30% decline. Also, full-year guidance was revised down to the lower end of the earlier one (organic revenue growth: +2% to -2%; adj. EBITA: 4.8% to 5.2%).
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Momentum screen refresh + 10 focus stocks
12 Jan 17
We have refreshed our momentum style screen for the first time since inception on 26 July 2016. As before, the screen selects the 25 stocks exhibiting the most extreme momentum characteristics, according to our measurement method. From these we have selected 10 to focus on. Since inception the screen has underperformed both the main small-cap and micro-cap indices against a background of generally rising momentum. We have noted a subset of the basket, where decelerating momentum at the time of measurement appears correlated with significant share price falls since selection. We shall monitor this factor with the new screen, albeit there are only two such stocks showing this pattern, namely Lamprell (not rated) and Gear4music (not rated).
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 12-01-2017
12 Jan 17
As anticipated, the second half has again been stronger than H1 and results will be broadly in line with expectations. In line with this, the order book has continued to grow and is at record levels. This confirms that significant progress has been made in the Group’s shift towards its Technology Products division which, as targeted, contributed c.60% of group revenue in FY16. The small acquisition of Cable Power also gives a complementary boost to the product range. It is also worth noting the significant reduction in net debt, £1.0m ahead of our forecast. We remain supportive of the Group’s strategy and continue to see a bright future as this transition towards a design led technology solutions business continues. We look forward to more detail in March at the final results.
N+1 Singer - Best Ideas 2017 - Top picks
04 Jan 17
Today we publish our Best Ideas for 2017 - 12 stocks that we believe have excellent prospects in the current year together with a detailed discussion of what we see as the key sector and market themes for 2017. Our top picks are Cineworld, Elementis, Herald Investment Trust, Hill & Smith, IQE, MySale, Redde, ReNeuron, RhythmOne, SDL, Servelec and Severfield.