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N+1 Singer - Conviviality - Solid H1 update
01 Nov 16
Conviviality has issued a solid H1 trading update. Overall it’s had a good first half with the dominant Mathew Clark and Bibendum businesses growing LFL’s by >5% - this is impressive. The Retail business traded broadly in line with our expectations. Delivery on synergies remains on track. We make no changes to our above consensus forecast this morning but reinforce our Buy on growth, rating and yield considerations. The company has a Capital Markets day tomorrow.
02 Dec 16
"By late Sunday, we should have a good idea whether or not Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, will be stepping down. The polls suggest his constitutional referendum, which has effectively become a confidence vote on his premiership, will get a 'thumbs down'. No new election is actually required until February 2018, but any attempt to simply replace him with another technocrat leader could well see a public, suffering from implosion of their bad-debt laden banking system, 38% youth unemployment and an inability to stifle giant capital outflows, clamouring for a snap election. This, of course, would open the door for Bepe Grillo's Five Star Movement, whose denouncement of the Euro could, in turn, generate in a wave of similar populist referendum voting across other dissatisfied EU nations, with France's own presidential election, due to take place on 7th May, the headline this morning following Francois Hollande's overnight declaration that he has decided not to stand. The prospect of Eurozone's collapse, however, was not the driver of the US session, which started in the positive following release of strong November Manufacturing ISM data, but waned later as a sell-off amongst tech issues pushed the NASDAQ sharply down, while the Dow Jones managed to hold onto modest gains due to sustained switching into financials, as divergence between the two sectors and the rout in government bond markets since Trump's election continued. Asian shares were lower across the board, with the Nikkei suffering as the Yen found buyers amongst US$ sceptics waiting for flaws in the Trump rally to show through, which dragged the other regional markets with it. With investors now virtually taking a 25bp hike by the Fed later this month for granted, focus this afternoon is likely to centre on the important US employment report, with forecasts in the 180k to 200k range, taking unemployment to 4.8% with a modest rise in hourly earnings of around 0.1%. The UK will also report Construction PMI figures this morning while corporates due to disclose earnings or trading updates include 88 Energy (88E.L), Altona Energy (ANR.L) and Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG.L). Traders meanwhile continue to watch oil futures carefully; although prices moderated during the Asian session, sentiment following OPEC's agreement remains positive with January's light, sweet crude trading a whisker below US$51 on the Mercantile Exchange, as they weigh up expectations on the terms being upheld or the various participants instead deciding to cheat on quotas rather than give up market share to US shale producers. London equities opened in a nervous mood this morning, with the FTSE-100 down over 57 points in early trading." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst