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The group reported slightly below-consensus Q3 revenue but upgraded its FY23 guidance amidst current macro and geopolitical uncertainties. The latter should be well-received but to an insignificant extent as the revised objectives are broadly in line with the market’s expectations. We have raised our 2023 EPS by 2.2%.
Companies: Accor (AC:EPA)Accor SA (AC:PAR)
AlphaValue
Accor reported a consensus-matching H1 and revised its 2023 outlook modestly upwards. We arrive at a higher EPS forecast after factoring the new information into our model and expect a slight increase in the consensus.
Accor provided a closer look at different brands, regional businesses and the new organisation on its investors day. The 2023 guidance is, overall, market-beating and the magnitude of growth for the mid-term remains in line with our expectations. The major surprise came from the larger-than-expected €3bn shareholder returns through dividends and buy-backs. We have upgraded our target price and recommendation.
Accor’s rosy Q1 sales were largely led by the long-awaited recovery in Asia, robust pricing and improving occupancy. The solid trading momentum enabled the group to upgrade its FY guidance, which also strengthened our bullish conviction. We expect an increase in the consensus and our estimates.
Solid trading momentum in Q4 with robust pricing having fully offset the dawdling occupancy. The FY top-line recovered earlier than expected and the EBITDA beat the guidance, despite more efforts on margin resumption being needed. We expect an increase in the consensus and our estimates.
Accor’s quarterly RevPAR and revenue both surpassed their 2019 levels and by a greater magnitude than in Q2. Trading was supportive in all regions except in Asia, while the zero-COVID policy in China is likely to linger for longer. We expect a minor increase in the consensus but we will maintain our estimates, which are in line with the renewed guidance.
The share price fell due to the market-missing Q2 EBITDA and conservative outlook, despite a strong rebound in RevPAR to above its 2019 level. We expect a downgrade in the consensus, but no major change is expected to our current estimates which remain consistent with the guidance.
The market reaction is expected to be positive to Accor’s consensus-beating Q1 revenue. Despite the lack of financial guidance, especially in terms of inflationary pressures, we will upgrade our FY22 revenue estimates to reflect the encouraging recovery in the Travel & Leisure activities.
Accor reported slightly market-beating FY21 results, thanks to sequential RevPAR improvements and stronger-than-planned cost reductions. The group expects a robust restoration of activities in FY22, largely led by favourable pricing, and aims to resume dividend payments as soon as possible. Regardless, the outlook might be affected by some inflation pressures.
Accor’s Q3 revenue improved considerably from last quarter, but it still lagged by 40% from the 2019 level. Q4 would be hard to perform much better due to seasonability effects. Nevertheless, the narrowing EBITDA loss is worth noting, even though the improvement is not significant.
We had an Investment Conference with Accor: the latest statistics support the group’s previously communicated forecast for its FY21 performance.
Accor’s H1 results beat the market thanks to tighter cost control and helpful business recovery in Australia. However, the market did not celebrate due to the H2 guidance with no surprises and few improvements vs H1. The consensus is expected to be downgraded.
Accor delivered a weaker-than-expected revenue in Q1, with no major improvement vs. in the last quarter, but it confirmed rather positive indicators in margins and cash burn.
Accor’s FY20 results suffered from the global travel restrictions and fewer travellers, but were broadly consistent with the market’s expectations and the liquidity position remained solid as usual. However, we do not expect a much better FY21, especially the cheerless H1.
The French-based international hotel leader Accor today confirmed a lifestyle joint-venture and the full acquisition of sbe, a lifestyle operator.
Companies: Accor SA
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Accor SA. We currently have 143 research reports from 6 professional analysts.
Topps Group is the UK’s largest specialist supplier and distributor of tiles and associated products to the UK’s domestic and commercial markets. Each of the last three years the Group has successfully achieved record revenue in a market that’s seen recent volume declines and regional peers enter administration. Following the right sizing of its business, Topps Group is now well positioned to capitalise on the economic recovery and continue taking share from competitors, supported by its global
Companies: Topps Tiles Plc
Zeus Capital
Companies: JDW MAB MARS WTB FSTA BOWL CPG SSPG LGRS SSTY OTB HSW TMO GYM MEX
Liberum
Pinewood’s transition to a pure-play automotive SaaS business is now largely complete. Today we introduce summary forecasts out to FY26 and reiterate the investment case. We see significant opportunity for Pinewood to grow its user base in the UK and internationally whilst generating high EBITDA margins and cash conversion. With a 24.5p special dividend embedded in the current price (payable Q1/Q2), the effective price today is 12.3p. Based on the Group’s FY27 target of £27m EBITDA, we estimate
Companies: Pinewood Technologies Group PLC
Borussia Dortmund’s progress to the semi-final of the Champions League brings a further upgrade to profit guidance for FY24. In addition to helping the financial results of the current year, the relative success of German teams against those of other nations in European competitions this season may ensure the club qualifies for the Champions League next season despite currently being outside the top four of the Bundesliga.
Companies: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co. KGaA
Edison
17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi
Companies: ARS TIDE SCE SNX ECK CNS TST SPEC SSTY
Hybridan
HeiQ has announced the acquisition of a site in Portugal where the company intends to build a HeiQ AeoniQ production facility with a 3,000 tonne per year capacity. To support the acquisition, the company intends to raise c£2.44m via an equity placing, supported by the issue of a c£1.7m (€1.97m) convertible loan note (largely to management) that will convert upon completion of the raise. We see this as an important step in the development programme for HeiQ AeoniQ. Additionally, HeiQ has provided
Companies: HeiQ PLC
Cavendish
Domino’s Pizza Group’s (DOM’s) new CEO has set an ambitious long-term growth target, including an acceleration in its net store opening programme. With better alignment between the company and its franchisees, management believes DOM should be capable of generating improved profit growth, versus that achieved in recent years, and potential higher returns.
Companies: Domino's Pizza Group plc
On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div
Companies: PTAL GHH IGP MSLH PINE NXQ EQLS NXR AXL
Vertu is the fourth largest automotive retailer in the UK, with 188 sales outlets and a track record of cross-cycle growth, principally through businesses it has acquired, funded by equity, debt and most importantly cash generation. Vertu operates across the entire vehicle lifecycle, including new and used vehicle sales, and vehicle servicing, repair and parts. Service and repair is a 40+% gross margin repeating business. With economic headwinds, the transition to electric vehicles, recent overs
Companies: Vertu Motors PLC
Progressive Equity Research
Bright Pier Group’s (BPG) H1 results reflect the highly challenging operating environment, with revenue -9% YoY to £16.2m and Adj EBITDA of £1.4m (H1/22A £3.0m). This decline was driven by weaker consumer demand (falling disposable incomes and low consumer confidence), train strikes and poor weather. Trading in H2 has remained relatively subdued, and as such, we lower our FY23E Adj EBITDA forecasts to £4.2m (from £5.5m). Whilst disappointing, we note that the group remains cash generative and co
Companies: Brighton Pier Group Plc
We are initiating coverage of a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp. ("a.k.a. Brands" or the "company"), a leading owner of primarily online apparel-based brands focused on Generation Z and Millennial consumers, with a Buy rating and $14.00 price target, or 10.9X our 2025 EBITDA projection of $20.2 million. The company's brands include: 1) Princess Polly, focusing on 15 to 25 year-old women; 2) Petal & Pup, which offers feminine styles for 25 to 34 year-old women; 3) Culture Kings, a street wear destinatio
Companies: GPS URBN ITX AEO AEO GES GES ITX GPS ANF 0R32 URBN
Small Cap Consumer Research LLC
An ongoing correction in used car prices has driven lower gross profit per unit for Vertu in recent months and this is expected to continue in the near term. There has been particular weakness in premium vehicle values. Additionally, higher stocking charges on increased new vehicle supply, has led to lower overall profitability. As a result, we have reduced forecast FY24 adjusted PBT by £8.0m (17%) to £39.3m and FY25 by £3.2m (6.2%) to £48.6m. This downgrade to expectations is indicative of mark
Companies: CML FDEV NRR SSPG RMV AO/ ZIN
Shore Capital
Companies: Marks and Spencer Group plc
Companies: AO World Plc (AO:LON)Marks Electrical Group Plc (MRK:LON)
Canaccord Genuity
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