Day 3 - Tweets and Quotes
Having heard from ~75 companies over the last few days, we have crossed the halfway point of the Exane BNP Paribas CEO Conference. On Day 3 our most requested companies were STMicroelectronics, Pernod Ricard and DSM, while we also heard our first Pharmaceutical and Logistics companies present. Overall, there was more focus on demand and recovery on Day 3, with most companies presenting an optimistic outlook. This was best evidenced by the STMicroelectronics stating that it is seeing demand 20% above supply for 2021. That sentiment was echoed elsewhere. Amadeus is seeing travel recovery continue week on week, Thales expects many of its end markets impacted to by the Pandemic to return to YoY growth, Astrazeneca is confident in an acceleration in 2H as healthcare systems open up, while Publicis let us know that clients are back in ''fighting mode''. Corporates continue to acknowledge inflation, but many seem to argue that a combination of price increases and cost cutting can mitigate the impact - Givaudan and Michelin were two such companies. An exception was Kingspan, which has been surprised by steel cost inflation. Our third keynote speaker of this year''s Conference was Mr Fabien Versavau, CEO of Rakuten France. We learned how Rakuten, the oldest ecommerce marketplace in the World, is emerging with a focus on SMEs, how their customer loyalty programme sets them apart, why they are bullish on their mobile platform and how Rakuten Card will make a difference as society becomes cashless. Looking ahead to Day 4, we will host 24 fireside chats across a variety of industries and in particular would like to highlight the highly requested meetings with: Air Liquide, L''Oreal and Airbus.
AC AKZA RDSA DSM AC ML ML ROG GLE GLE HO HO FR FR FGR FGR RI RI PUB PUB ATO ATO AZN STERV STM MAERSKB MAERSKB SAN SAN ABBN GIVN DPW NZYMB NZYMB KSP DCC AKE AKE GALP GALP SKG AMS AMS SHL
10 Jun 21
HOTELS | The Desert crossing is not over
Although the tourism and travel industry has always been exposed to environmental, security, geopolitical or health-related crises, these periods of tension havehad limited effects over time and have not questioned growth momentum. However, while the fundamentals behind this growth remain intact, namely rising middle classes in emerging countries, more mobile new generations, theopening of borders and accessible means of transport, the changes brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic could have a lasting impact. Indeed, the duration and implications of the current health crisis have highlighted the fact that people’s needs and ways of working must be rethought. Thesechanges will have consequences not only on business travel but also on leisure tourism, requiring an in-depth adaptation of the hotel offer. In light of this, while making some adjustments, we reiterate our negative views with TPs of: • EUR26.5 vs. EUR23.5 for Accor, • 4.100p vs. 3.900p for IHG, • EUR6 vs. EUR3.1 for Melia.
AC MEL MEL IHG AC
07 Jun 21
Dear Client, It is a great pleasure to welcome you to the 23rd Exane BNP Paribas European CEO Conference, the flagship event for our Equities business. For the second year in a row, the conference will be entirely virtual. And once again we are anticipating a record-breaking event, with over 130 blue-chip companies participating and over 100 CEOs present. This is a great opportunity for investors and corporates to build on the dialogue and debate we have maintained over a tumultuous year. This year''s event comes at a time of change for us, following the announcement in March that BNP Paribas is looking to acquire 100% of Exane. After a long and successful partnership in Cash Equities, we''re excited about this next step, which will allow us to expand and enhance the services we offer to our clients. I''m grateful to our people and clients for their support in delivering this event, which I hope you will find valuable. Next year, for our 24th event, I sincerely hope to be seeing you all in person. Thank you, and I hope you enjoy the conference. Ben Spruntulis Head of Equities Exane BNP Paribas
AC BAS CON EOAN AKZA DSM AC EN EN CAP CAP BP/ ADEN FGR FGR AI AI CA CA BIM BIM ATO ATO DGE BBVA AZN BNP BNP ADS DSY DSY MAERSKB MAERSKB ABBN AAL MT ABI ABI AIR AIR DPW AMAT AMAT COLOB COLOB APD APD ACA ACA CRDA ANTO EZJ DCC CCEP BOL BOL EDF EDF ALO ALO AKE AKE BVI BVI AMS AMS EDEN EDEN CCH ELIOR ELIOR AMUN AMUN ADE ADE AG1
03 Jun 21
ACCOR: Another challenging quarter, but with no surprises | SELL | EUR23.5(-31%)
ACCOR - SELL | EUR23.5(-31%) Another challenging quarter, but with no surprises Q1 2021 business in line with Q4, based on 2019 results Sensitivity confirmed with financial remaining solid A rebound totally dependent on vaccination
Accor Accor SA
22 Apr 21
Supply Wars: the Hotels side
For all their troubles in 2020, at least Hotels had the benefit of the Alternative Accommodation threat subsiding: home rental listings were down for the first time in years. The situation is about to worsen significantly into Summer 2021, with Airbnb launching a global Host recruitment campaign which we estimate in a separate report could swallow up $2.0bn of marketing expenses and add 3.4m listings over 3 years. We reiterate our cautious stance on Hotels, and also flag that their own system growth is hardly moving the needle, in a range of +1.1% to +4.0% for FY21e/22e. Airbnb is up to no good... again Hotels managed a decent Summer season in 2020, but we find that this coincided with the low point in Alternative Accommodation supply: Airbnb listings were down c. -6% in June 2020, with the most competitive ''professional host'' multi-listings down c. -14%. We estimate that Airbnb''s ''Made Possible by Hosts'' campaign launched in February 2021 could now add c. 3.4m new listings to the platform by FY23e (+16% p.a.), with c. 500k experienced hosts potentially back on overnight after leaving the platform in 2020, and large European cities likely in focus. Looking at stock-specific risk, we would push back on the consensual view that Accor is an obvious ''Airbnb loser''. What Hotels are doing: good supply, bad supply, and no supply We take this opportunity to fine-tune our net system growth forecasts for European Hotels for FY21e/22e. Accor (=) is likely to stay ahead (+3.7% / +4.0%); the skew to the lower-earning China master franchise is still problematic, but the Lifestyle JV may bring some faster-growing brands up at EBITDA level. Whitbread (-) is a very close second (3.4% / 3.9%), but we would argue that consensus forecasts are at risk from the extra capacity costs for as long as the competitive environment has not improved (Travelodge retained 98% of their network). We are most worried about IHG (-) losing ground (+1.4% / +3.5%) as they address...
AC AC IHG WTB
29 Mar 21
A good liquidity endurance but lack of short-term catalysts
Accor’s FY20 results suffered from the global travel restrictions and fewer travellers, but were broadly consistent with the market’s expectations and the liquidity position remained solid as usual. However, we do not expect a much better FY21, especially the cheerless H1.
Accor Accor SA
02 Mar 21