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Factoring in the dilution from CSG and a deterioration in the 2023 performance OPINION CHANGE CHANGE IN OPINION Reduce vs Buy CHANGE IN EPS 2023 : € (0.02) vs 0.03 ns 2024 : € 0.05 vs 0.11 -55.4% We have trimmed our EPS estimates after the group withdrew its sales guidance. With sales now expected to be lower than €100, we believe that there is a threat to licensing revenues, which directly add to profits. Additionally, vehicle sales could also be impacted, which would lead to unde
Companies: Gaussin SA (ALGAU:PAR)Gaussin (ALGAU:EPA)
AlphaValue
Last week Gaussin announced a strategic partnership with Czechoslovak Group (CSG) that will also lead to an injection of €15-25m in funds which is (much) needed for the advancement of Gaussin’s ambitions. As a consequence of this partnership there will be changes to the company’s Board and Executive Committee, and some possible dilution.
Gaussin sales for the first semester of 2023 were half the level of the previous year mainly due to a decline in the sales of port vehicles as well as Metalliance (underground activities). In the wake of the Amazon orders, inventories also increased significantly. Moreover, the group recently raised funds via equity financing which has led to dilution. This arrangement could potentially lead to further heavy dilution as the group needs funds to ramp-up its manufacturing and deliveries.
Updated forecasts post the H1 release and the impact of warrant issuance TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE € 2.96 vs 4.90 -39.5% Our target price goes down following downgrades across the DCF, NAV and peer based valuations. Recent dilution has been a major factor in this and, given that Gaussin will require funding to scale up manufacturing, future equity dilution cannot be ruled out and hence remains a key risk to consider. CHANGE IN EPS 2023 : € 0.03 vs 0.28 -89.9% 2024 : € 0.
Gaussin in partnership with Macnica has acquired Navya, the Lyon-based start-up that develops autonomous shuttles. This is an opportunistic transaction in two ways. First, Gaussin has taken over only the assets of the business, and second, this acquisition offers growth avenues for both companies.
Founded in 1880 by Eugène Gaussin, and currently headed by Christophe Gaussin, Gaussin is an engineering company that designs, assembles, and sells innovative products and services in the transport and logistics sectors. Gaussin’s know-how spans across off- and on-road vehicles (manned and autonomous), with expertise in the integration of all types of batteries (electric and hydrogen fuel cells). It also owns a subsidiary in Metalliance, which specialises in the design and construction of indust
EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS2017 : € -0.13 vs -0.11 ns 2018 : € -0.04 vs -0.04 ns Based on the fact that we were expecting something like 78m diluted shares (average) at the end of 2017 vs 70m realised, this has a dilutive impact on EPS (lower number of shares for an unchanged loss expected).
Companies: Gaussin SA
Gaussin launched a capital increase of €2.5m at €0.14 per share, namely c.18m new shares. In accordance with the decisions taken by the boards of directors on 16 January 2018, making use of the delegations given by the EGM on 15 June 2017, it was decided to proceed with reserved capital increases, with a subscription period expiring on the 30 January 2018. All subscriptions were received before the expiry of the subscription period. The final completion of these capital increases has been note
TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 0.25 vs 0.50 -51.0% As we have reduced our forecasts for 2017 and 2018 (we now expect negative EBITDA and earnings for these two years), the peers-based valuation method suffers: as EBITDA is forecast to remain negative over the next 18 months, the EV/EBITDA valuation generates a nil valuation, which is a very penalising due to its weight in the overall target price. In a similar way, the P/E valuation gives a 50% valuation compared to the current share
Key information: • Revenues: €2.1m after audit vs €5.7m previously announced and vs €4.9m in 6m 16. • EBITDA: €-3.3m vs €-3.8m in 6m 16. • Net income: -€5m vs -€9.7m in 6m 16. • Cash and cash equivalents: €6.6m thanks to the issue of a new convertible bond. • Order book: €82m.
Financial freedom by 2019? TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 0.53 vs 0.61 -12.2% Note that we changed our recommendation from a Call option recommendation (held for almost two years) to a Buy in June 2017. We believe that the debt restructuring and the strong guidance (namely €18m of revenue and a positive reported net profit for FY17) are positive elements. We believe that the company could become cash break-even from 2019 onwards, which would be a very positive element and a strong
Key information: • Revenue of €5.7m in H1. • Revenue up by 16%. • Order book of €81m. • ATT revenue is up by 44%. • MTO revenue down by 18%.
As the company has issued a guidance for the first time, we have decided to take it into account and trust management. As a consequence, we have now revised upwards our 2017 EPS into positive territory.
TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 0.63 vs 1.02 -39.0% We were previously expecting several capital increases over the 2016-2018 period at €1 per share. Now that the share price has collapsed, we no longer expect capital increases at €1 per share but rather at €0.50 per share, resulting in higher dilution. Hence, we have sharply reduced our target price. CHANGE IN EPS2016 : € -0.45 vs -0.07 ns 2017 : € -0.01 vs 0.04 ns Concerning the EPS, we now expect a significant net loss for the
Key information: • Revenue of €4.9m after auditing vs €9.1m announced in June 2016. • Operating income at €-4.9m vs -4.5m in H1 15. • Net income at €-9.7m vs €-4.9m in H1 15. • Equity at €9.3m. • Cash and cash equivalents at €3.8m at 30 September 2016. • Order book down by 14% due to cancellation
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Gaussin SA. We currently have 23 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
The FY24 year-end update is very upbeat signalling trading being materially ahead of expectations, with a better-than-expected profit out turn and stronger cash generation. It continues to strengthen margins through efficiencies and investment in modern equipment. The order book remains close to record levels providing a robust view of future forecasts. In FY24E we upgrade EPS by 11% and in FY25E a significant upgrade of 27.6%. It looks capable of declaring a dividend in FY25 as well as manageme
Companies: Renold plc
Cavendish
Another Good Year of Diversified Growth with More to Come in 2024 CCapital have released their Q1 operating results. Overall, revenue has come in slightly lower than expected at $80.2m vs TamE of $85.9m but is largely tracking in line with our FY24 annual estimate and we note the company has maintained guidance. Drilling revenue for this quarter was impacted by a fall in utilisaztion rates as well as general remobilisation geographically but we expect a strong recovery throughout the year as k
Companies: Capital Limited
Tamesis Partners
FY23 results show very strong growth over FY22, driven by strong Structural Steel activity, with results slightly ahead of upgraded profit expectations, while stronger than expected cash flow resulted in an unexpectedly generous dividend of 33p (offering a FY23 yield of 7.0%). The group now has net cash of £22.1m and is debt free and is therefore in a strong position for potential M&A activity. Following the recent £90m of new orders to increase the order book to record levels we conservatively
Companies: Billington Holdings Plc
Companies: BILN ELCO NXQ CUSN ATG
Plant Health Care announced it has signed a distribution agreement with AMVAC, an American Vanguard Company, to support commercialisation of novel fertiliser products incorporating Plant Health Care's Harpinαβ in China starting in 2024. The novel product combines Harpinαβ technology with an AMVAC fertiliser and is expected to help growers improve crop quality and yield as part of an integrated and environmentally responsible crop production programme. AMVAC continues to evaluate Plant Health Car
Companies: Plant Health Care PLC
Companies: 88E RNO TRIN KRM EXR BOOM
discoverIE’s March year-end update confirms a strong operational performance in challenging markets. Following two years when sales increased by +48%, FY 2024 Group sales were +1% ahead of 2023 at CER (reported -3%) driven by a +2% contribution from acquisitions and organic -1%. As expected, organic growth returned in the later part of the year (Q4 +2%, +11% sequentially) and the order book has reverted to normalised levels of c.4.5 months’ sales, which – combined with a continuing strong pipeli
Companies: discoverIE Group PLC
Severfield’s trading update indicates that FY23 results are expected to slightly exceed market expectations and the company ends the year with a record UK and Europe order book. Furthermore, with a positive trading outlook and net debt coming in lower than expected, Severfield has announced a £10m share buyback, highlighting the cash-generative nature of the company and management’s confidence in its position. The stock trades on an FY25 P/E of less than 6x and yields 7%, which we believe appear
Companies: Severfield Plc
Edison
Companies: Iofina plc
Canaccord Genuity
Companies: PLL TLG HZM SAV KAV KP2 SVML
SP Angel
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
Companies: AEIT ROOF DGI9 INPP GSF SEIT USFP HICL ORIT BSIF TRIG NESF SEQI HEIT GRP GCP FSFL 3IN AERI PINT RNEW BBGI GSEO DORE TENT GRID CORD HGEN AEET
Hardman & Co
Acquisitions have been an important element of Severfield management’s growth strategy, with the aim of adding new products, sectors and regions to what we have identified as exciting long-term organic opportunities. In this Spotlight report, we focus on the group’s targeted M&A approach, highlighting three significant deals.
Progressive Equity Research
Liberum
Invinity’s update on discussions with strategic investors reveals interest from multiple parties. While this has slightly delayed finalising an agreement it increases the potential for a better outcome. Although details are unknown at this stage, we think there is enough in the statement to be comfortable that any agreements will be consistent with the company’s strategy of growing market share in core markets and using a licencing and royalty model in other markets.
Companies: Invinity Energy Systems PLC
Longspur Clean Energy
Companies: ATOME PLC
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