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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Alstom. We currently have 11 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Alstom reported H1 17/18 figures which were above market expectations overall. Revenues reached €3,756m, 5% organic growth versus last year (€3,570m) and in line with expectations. Orders received amounted to €3,170m, a 49% decrease yoy (€6,212m), and included two contracts in Canada for almost 100 light rail vehicles, a first metro system contract in Vietnam, a metro system contract in Philippines, contracts for regional trains in Italy, Senegal and Germany, a maintenance contract in Sweden, as well as a fleet modernisation project in the USA. The backlog reached €32.7bn, slightly below last year’s level of €33.49bn. The operating profit was €231m (versus €200m last year), corresponding to a 6.2% operating margin (versus 5.6% last year). Net income was €213m (versus €128m) and FCF generation was €227m (€333m last year). The company confirmed its 2020 targets: 5% organic growth per year and an EBIT margin of 7%.
Deal confirmed with Bouygues; French and German states supporting the transaction. Creation of a pro forma €15.3bn company and adjusted EBIT of €1.2bn. Listing in France and group headquarters in Paris area; led by Alstom’s current CEO and 50% shares of the new entity owned by Siemens. Annual pre-tax EBIT synergies of €470m expected by the latest four years after closing (procurement, SGA, R&D and others). Up to €8 per share dividend to Alstom’s existing shareholders: €4 per share at closing + €4 per share after the exercise of the put options in the energy JVs with GE valued at €2.5bn (in line with AV’s estimate). The closing is expected at the end of 2018.
During Q1 17/18, Alstom recorded €1.91bn worth of orders (versus €900m last year), including two contracts in Canada for almost 100 light rail vehicles, a first metro system contract in Vietnam, contracts for regional trains in Senegal and Germany, a fleet modernisation project in the USA, as well as part of a metro system contract for Manila in the Philippines. Sales, at €1.9bn, were up 5% organically in the first quarter 2017/18. The backlog reached €34bn on 30 June 2017. Objectives for 2020 are confirmed: By 2020, sales should grow organically by 5% per year. The adjusted EBIT margin should reach around 7% by 2020, driven by volume, portfolio mix and the results of operational excellence actions. By 2020, Alstom expects a c. 100% conversion from net income into free cash flow.
Alstom has reported its annual results for 2016/17, confirming an improvement in both its operating and commercial performance. 2016/17 revenue reached €7.3bn, corresponding to +6% organic growth, and in line with expectations, while the order backlog reached €34.7bn (+10.6bn of new orders in 2016/17). The adj. operating profit reached €421m up 5% yoy, corresponding to a +5.8% margin, slightly above market and AV expectations (€411m). The net result was €289m (versus AV €296M), leading to positive FCF of €182m. The net debt was stable at €208m. The company is proposing a dividend of €0.25 and has confirmed its 2020 targets.
Alstom booked €1bn of orders in Q3 16/17 (versus €2.35bn in Q3 15/16) following very strong activity in Q2 (€5.3bn). For the first nine months of 2016/17, Alstom’s order intake reached €7.2bn, up 16% compared to €6.3bn over the same period last year. The group’s sales amounted to €5.2bn, up 6% yoy. The book-to-bill remained strong at 1.4x. Sales increased to €1.7bn, up 3% yoy, of which 2% organically. The company also announced a €190m metro system contract in Vietnam. Objectives for 2020 confirmed: By 2020, sales should grow organically by 5% per year. Adjusted EBIT margin should reach around 7% by 2020 driven by volume, portfolio mix and the results of operational excellence actions. By 2020, Alstom expects c. 100% conversion from net income into free cash flow.
Alstom reported strong figures in H1 16 which were above market expectations. Main facts: Order intake reached €6.2bn, a +66% yoy organic increase and leading to a record €33.6bn order book (+22% yoy organic increase). Revenues came in at €3,570m, a +7% organic increase. Adjusted EBIT was up 20% yoy at €200m and corresponding to a 5.6% margin (versus 5.1% in H1 15). Free cash flow of €333m (versus €-1,336m), was exceptionnaly high with several down-payments. 2020 guidance confirmed: organic growth of 5% per year and the EBIT margin to reach 7%.
Alstom booked €0.9 bn of orders in Q1 16, compared to c.€2bn over the same period last year. Sales reached €1.7bn and were up 7% organically over Q1 2016/17 mainly driven by regional, high-speed and suburban trains in France, regional trains in Italy, Germany and Sweden, the progressive ramp-up of the PRASA project in South Africa, maintenance of high speed trains in the UK as well as a signalling project in Canada. At €29.7bn on 30 June 2016, the backlog represented over four years of sales.
Alstom reported positive full-year 2015/16 results, which confirmed back to normal, coupled with positive prospects ahead according to the 2020 strategic plan. Main facts: Orders grew 7% yoy at €10.64bn (versus €10.05bn in 2015/14) while the backlog reached €30.63bn, a +14% yoy organic increase and corresponding to more than four years revenue. Revenue was €6881m, 12% growth reported but corresponding to 7% organic growth. The adjusted EBIT was €366m, a +23% increase, corresponding to a 5.3% margin versus 4.8% last year. Net debt was €200m at the end of March 2015. Net income was €3.0bn, impacted by the selling of the energy division. The company confirmed its 2020 targets: By 2020, sales should grow organically by 5% per year. Adjusted EBIT margin should reach around 7% by 2020, driven by volume, portfolio mix and the results of operational excellence actions. By 2020, Alstom expects c. 100% conversion from net income into free cash flow.
Alstom Q3 results and press conference call on first nine months’ orders & sales for FY 2015/16 (April 1st to December 12). Alstom booked €2,358 million of orders in Q3 2015/16, versus €1,615 million last year corresponding to a +46% increase. Major commercial successes included regional trains in Belgium, Pendolino trains and associated maintenance in Italy, electrification, a signaling and telecommunications project in India, locomotives in Switzerland, regional trains in Germany, extension of the metro in Panama as well as the tramway for Nice in France. Revenues increased to €1,613 million in the third quarter 2015/16, compared to €1,501 million for the same period last year. (7.4% increase). Nonetheless, Q3 organic sales growth was around 3% on a YoY basis, falling below the 5% organic annual sales growth target previously announced by Alstom Chief Executive Officer Patrick Kron. These results give the company a book-to-bill ratio of 1.46x for the quarter and 1.29x for the first nine months. In the press conference Mr. Kron stated that the GE Signaling business, acquired in November 2015, had been consolidated in the last two months' results and had generated €60m of Sales over this period (€360m on an annualised basis); this was slightly disappointing given the expected €400m increase in annual Sales. Thanks to the grid and power businesses divestment, Alstom is sitting on a substantial amount of cash, even after the $3.2 billion share buyback, the €700m acquisition of GE’s signaling business and the stake increase in Russia’s Transmashholding from 25% to 33% late last year for 54 million Euros. The company is currently net debt free, meaning that in-hand cash balances the gross debt, giving the company a window for external growth and/new share buybacks although CEO Patrick Kron did say in the press conference that external growth and share buybacks were not the first priority. The press conference was Mr. Kron's last and he took the opportunity to thank his teams for the ‘’great work they’ve done’’ during his 13-year career as CEO. He is replaced by the Alstom Transportation’s segment president, Mr. Henri Poupart-Lafarge.
Alstom reported its H1 15/16 results, governance changes and a return to shareholders.
Alstom reported €1.96bn of orders in Transport for its Q1 15/16, a 59% decrease yoy but Q1 14/15 included the jumbo contract of €4.0bn in South Africa. If we exclude the jumbo contract, the order level is rather strong in comparison with last year although fuelled by small and mid-sized contracts including maintenance of Kazakh locomotives, locomotives in Azerbaijan and a signalling system in Hong Kong.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Alstom. We currently have 11 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
e il futuro
Companies: ABBY BDEV BWY BKG BVS CRN CSP CRST GLE INL MCS PSN RDW SPR TW/ TEF WJG
The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey, ‘Ownership of UK quoted shares: 2016’, shows that retail investors are more important than most company managements realise or most capital markets professionals admit. When it is also appreciated that the data shows that retail investors set the share price for most quoted companies, most days, it becomes clear that engaging with such an audience enhances a company’s standing, whilst ignoring them courts disaster.
Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG EHP INL MCL MUR NSF OBT ODX OXB PPH NIPT RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL
In July 2017, we highlighted the progress that AIM made in the first half of the year. We are now reviewing the performance over H2 2017. The latest AIM Statistics published yesterday show that there are currently 960 companies, with 80 new issues in 2017, raising £1.58bn and secondary issues raising a further £4.7bn. However, with 102 companies cancelling their listing there was a net 22 fall in 2017 as a whole. It appears that both the trends of new issue momentum and de-listings are set to continue in 2018. In Share News & Views, we comment on APC Technology*, ECSC Group* and IG Design.
Companies: APC BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM GETB PCF SNX SPRP TCN W7L
XP saw a strong finish to the year, with Q4 revenue growth of 16% y-o-y and order growth of 24% y-o-y, resulting in FY17 revenues slightly ahead of our forecast. Good demand across all sectors and geographies was boosted by a strong contribution from the recent Comdel acquisition. Management expects continued growth in FY18; we maintain our forecasts which, based on current momentum, could prove conservative.
Companies: XP Power
A look back at our 2017 ideas In aggregate our analyst picks outperformed the FTSE All Share last year by 9% and the cumulative performance of our portfolio over 6 years would have given a total return of 300% (almost double the return on the FTSE All Share). In addition, many of our top-down themes played out very well such as our focus on secular growth in Tech, Life Sciences, Healthcare and Financials, an increase in M&A, our cautious stance on the Consumer and especially our bet on continued strength in the Industrials last year and solid growth in the global economy. What does 2018 have in store? We continue to play ongoing secular growth themes in Tech, Life Sciences, Healthcare and Financials. In addition, we tap into domestic areas of cyclical strength such as regional construction and house building, plus self-help initiatives and potential market share gains. We maintain a favourable view of Industrials given the global economic backdrop but think this could moderate during the year. Other changes of nuance include the potential for a better H2 in the Consumer sectors, which remain under pressure for now, and a better outlook in Media from a mini-quadrennial year in 2018.
Companies: AMO AVG CBP CVSG DNLM EKF FENR IOM SAA GLE PURI SFR PGIT PURI SFR SOG VRP
The share price fell by almost 33.0% in Q4 2017 on the back of two trading updates and the departure of the CEO. Superficially, this appears consistent with reactions to similar announcements elsewhere in the market. However, we believe that the fall is an over-reaction and prefer to base our valuation on fundamentals. Specifically, relating the share price move to our downgrades to earnings implies a substantial de-rating which is not borne out by either the prospects for the bulk of the Group nor its ability to manage cash flow. On this last point, we continue to expect further progress in debt reduction, underpinning modest increases in the dividend across the timeframe. This is at odds with the current yield and is the basis for our theoretical value of 92p per share.
Companies: Low & Bonar
Consistent with its strategy, APC is acquiring First Byte Micro, a franchised and independent distributor of electronic components. The net consideration payable will be £0.5m as FBM has cash of £0.7m which will go on completion. Of the remaining £0.5m, £270,000 will be paid on completion and £230,000 in 12 months. FBM reported FY16 revenues of £1.3m and PBT of £0.2m. The acquisition will add to the existing businesses which have started 2018 well, and are trading in line with expectations. Forecasts are under review.
Companies: APC Technology Group
Interim results reported revenue, EBITDA and PBT are ahead of our expectations as the company is confirmed as the market leader in UK small cap M&A. We increase revenue and cost estimates by £1m for the three forecast years while leaving our EBITDA expectations unchanged in view of the uncertainty over the timing of transactions closing. The unique high margin, high ROE and highly cash-generative model is set to grow significantly while we confidently expect a re-rating over time. We move our price target to 200p.
Companies: K3 Capital Group
FY17 trading was in line with expectations, with good sector performance in the context of wider industry trends. The CPM acquisition should aid another premium growth year in 2018, beyond which the UK economic outlook should be clearer. Rating premia are earned during growth phases, but can also be sustained during less favourable industry conditions via relative outperformance, and this is what we expect to prevail at Marshalls.
The AIM Healthcare index has shown positive returns in all but three out of the past 11 years (2007, 2008 and 2011), growing at a CAGR of 7.6% over the period. This compares with a CAGR of -0.3% for the broader FT AIM All Share, +0.6% for the AIM 100 and +3.5% for its more senior FT All Share Health index. Sector growth and relative performance to the AIM All Share index has accelerated over the past five years; the sector having risen 19.19% CAGR since 1 Jan 2012. This compares with 6.8% growth in the AIM All Share and 6.1% in the FT All Share. This outperformance can be attributed to the increasing success amongst the Healthcare constituents which have progressed their business plans to a point where substantial value has been/is being created and where many companies have successfully scaled their businesses to sustain future growth. We highlight four companies that have different business models but exemplify the opportunities that are increasingly becoming evident within the sector.
Companies: ABZA AKR AGY APH AGL AVCT BVXP COG CTH IHC LID MTFB ODX OPTI NIPT PRM SDI STX SNG TSTL
Since Equifax announced a data breach in September 2017, legislators have been trying hard to penalize the lax attitude of data managers (including credit scoring companies). Recently, a bill was tabled in the Senate (Data Breach and Compensation Act), which proposes significant fines in the event of a data breach. Looking into the fine print, the bill recommends a fine of $100 per customer whose personal information gets compromised (with an additional $50 for each piece of data put at risk per person). The total sanctions are capped at 50% of the company’s total gross revenue. Also, if a company fails to disclose the breach to regulators in a timely manner, or has insufficient cyber security in place, the cap will increase to 75%. If this legislation had been in place during the Equifax fiasco, the company would have incurred a fine of at least $1.5bn.
We have increased our forecasts for adjusted profits and EPS by 5% for 2017 and by 3% for 2018 and 2019, following Bodycote’s stronger than anticipated Q4 performance. Our adjusted operating profit estimate of £124.5m for 2017 is in line with updated guidance, ie towards the top of the previous market range. Our 2018 forecast assumes organic sales growth of 3.9% vs. a tough 2017 comparative, but offers potential for further upgrades given the supportive industrial backdrop. Meanwhile the group’s strong balance sheet would support M&A or another return of excess cash to shareholders in the form of a special dividend. We have increased our target price from 995p to 1105p and our recommendation remains Buy.
Stadium has reported that trading ta the year end was in line with expectations that were revised in November. It is encouraging that trading has stabilised and we now look forward to more details with the final results in March.
Companies: Stadium Group
Gateley was the first UK law practice to be floated on AIM. With the interests of partners and shareholders now closely aligned, the shares offer investors access to a business model set to directly benefit from the changing structure of the UK legal market; an opportunity-rich landscape for ambitious midtier firms. H118 results highlighted robust trading supporting our FY18 forecasts and reflecting good organic growth momentum (+8.5%). This is a quality earnings stream that we believe will support a progressive re-rating whilst earnings enhancing acquisitions provide the scope for upgrades in this highly fragmented sector.
Earlier this year Vitec sold Haigh-Farr and Bexel for a combined consideration of £35.3m which improved the Group’s strategic focus and reduced debt, albeit with modest earnings dilution. Vitec has now redeployed most of this cash with the purchases of DayMen Group and RT Motion for a combined total cost of £27.1m. These businesses are an excellent strategic fit and are expected to contribute an incremental £7m to profits in 2019, leaving the shares attractively valued.
Companies: Vitec Group