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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Alstom. We currently have 11 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Alstom reported H1 17/18 figures which were above market expectations overall. Revenues reached €3,756m, 5% organic growth versus last year (€3,570m) and in line with expectations. Orders received amounted to €3,170m, a 49% decrease yoy (€6,212m), and included two contracts in Canada for almost 100 light rail vehicles, a first metro system contract in Vietnam, a metro system contract in Philippines, contracts for regional trains in Italy, Senegal and Germany, a maintenance contract in Sweden, as well as a fleet modernisation project in the USA. The backlog reached €32.7bn, slightly below last year’s level of €33.49bn. The operating profit was €231m (versus €200m last year), corresponding to a 6.2% operating margin (versus 5.6% last year). Net income was €213m (versus €128m) and FCF generation was €227m (€333m last year). The company confirmed its 2020 targets: 5% organic growth per year and an EBIT margin of 7%.
Deal confirmed with Bouygues; French and German states supporting the transaction. Creation of a pro forma €15.3bn company and adjusted EBIT of €1.2bn. Listing in France and group headquarters in Paris area; led by Alstom’s current CEO and 50% shares of the new entity owned by Siemens. Annual pre-tax EBIT synergies of €470m expected by the latest four years after closing (procurement, SGA, R&D and others). Up to €8 per share dividend to Alstom’s existing shareholders: €4 per share at closing + €4 per share after the exercise of the put options in the energy JVs with GE valued at €2.5bn (in line with AV’s estimate). The closing is expected at the end of 2018.
During Q1 17/18, Alstom recorded €1.91bn worth of orders (versus €900m last year), including two contracts in Canada for almost 100 light rail vehicles, a first metro system contract in Vietnam, contracts for regional trains in Senegal and Germany, a fleet modernisation project in the USA, as well as part of a metro system contract for Manila in the Philippines. Sales, at €1.9bn, were up 5% organically in the first quarter 2017/18. The backlog reached €34bn on 30 June 2017. Objectives for 2020 are confirmed: By 2020, sales should grow organically by 5% per year. The adjusted EBIT margin should reach around 7% by 2020, driven by volume, portfolio mix and the results of operational excellence actions. By 2020, Alstom expects a c. 100% conversion from net income into free cash flow.
Alstom has reported its annual results for 2016/17, confirming an improvement in both its operating and commercial performance. 2016/17 revenue reached €7.3bn, corresponding to +6% organic growth, and in line with expectations, while the order backlog reached €34.7bn (+10.6bn of new orders in 2016/17). The adj. operating profit reached €421m up 5% yoy, corresponding to a +5.8% margin, slightly above market and AV expectations (€411m). The net result was €289m (versus AV €296M), leading to positive FCF of €182m. The net debt was stable at €208m. The company is proposing a dividend of €0.25 and has confirmed its 2020 targets.
Alstom booked €1bn of orders in Q3 16/17 (versus €2.35bn in Q3 15/16) following very strong activity in Q2 (€5.3bn). For the first nine months of 2016/17, Alstom’s order intake reached €7.2bn, up 16% compared to €6.3bn over the same period last year. The group’s sales amounted to €5.2bn, up 6% yoy. The book-to-bill remained strong at 1.4x. Sales increased to €1.7bn, up 3% yoy, of which 2% organically. The company also announced a €190m metro system contract in Vietnam. Objectives for 2020 confirmed: By 2020, sales should grow organically by 5% per year. Adjusted EBIT margin should reach around 7% by 2020 driven by volume, portfolio mix and the results of operational excellence actions. By 2020, Alstom expects c. 100% conversion from net income into free cash flow.
Alstom reported strong figures in H1 16 which were above market expectations. Main facts: Order intake reached €6.2bn, a +66% yoy organic increase and leading to a record €33.6bn order book (+22% yoy organic increase). Revenues came in at €3,570m, a +7% organic increase. Adjusted EBIT was up 20% yoy at €200m and corresponding to a 5.6% margin (versus 5.1% in H1 15). Free cash flow of €333m (versus €-1,336m), was exceptionnaly high with several down-payments. 2020 guidance confirmed: organic growth of 5% per year and the EBIT margin to reach 7%.
Alstom booked €0.9 bn of orders in Q1 16, compared to c.€2bn over the same period last year. Sales reached €1.7bn and were up 7% organically over Q1 2016/17 mainly driven by regional, high-speed and suburban trains in France, regional trains in Italy, Germany and Sweden, the progressive ramp-up of the PRASA project in South Africa, maintenance of high speed trains in the UK as well as a signalling project in Canada. At €29.7bn on 30 June 2016, the backlog represented over four years of sales.
Alstom reported positive full-year 2015/16 results, which confirmed back to normal, coupled with positive prospects ahead according to the 2020 strategic plan. Main facts: Orders grew 7% yoy at €10.64bn (versus €10.05bn in 2015/14) while the backlog reached €30.63bn, a +14% yoy organic increase and corresponding to more than four years revenue. Revenue was €6881m, 12% growth reported but corresponding to 7% organic growth. The adjusted EBIT was €366m, a +23% increase, corresponding to a 5.3% margin versus 4.8% last year. Net debt was €200m at the end of March 2015. Net income was €3.0bn, impacted by the selling of the energy division. The company confirmed its 2020 targets: By 2020, sales should grow organically by 5% per year. Adjusted EBIT margin should reach around 7% by 2020, driven by volume, portfolio mix and the results of operational excellence actions. By 2020, Alstom expects c. 100% conversion from net income into free cash flow.
Alstom Q3 results and press conference call on first nine months’ orders & sales for FY 2015/16 (April 1st to December 12). Alstom booked €2,358 million of orders in Q3 2015/16, versus €1,615 million last year corresponding to a +46% increase. Major commercial successes included regional trains in Belgium, Pendolino trains and associated maintenance in Italy, electrification, a signaling and telecommunications project in India, locomotives in Switzerland, regional trains in Germany, extension of the metro in Panama as well as the tramway for Nice in France. Revenues increased to €1,613 million in the third quarter 2015/16, compared to €1,501 million for the same period last year. (7.4% increase). Nonetheless, Q3 organic sales growth was around 3% on a YoY basis, falling below the 5% organic annual sales growth target previously announced by Alstom Chief Executive Officer Patrick Kron. These results give the company a book-to-bill ratio of 1.46x for the quarter and 1.29x for the first nine months. In the press conference Mr. Kron stated that the GE Signaling business, acquired in November 2015, had been consolidated in the last two months' results and had generated €60m of Sales over this period (€360m on an annualised basis); this was slightly disappointing given the expected €400m increase in annual Sales. Thanks to the grid and power businesses divestment, Alstom is sitting on a substantial amount of cash, even after the $3.2 billion share buyback, the €700m acquisition of GE’s signaling business and the stake increase in Russia’s Transmashholding from 25% to 33% late last year for 54 million Euros. The company is currently net debt free, meaning that in-hand cash balances the gross debt, giving the company a window for external growth and/new share buybacks although CEO Patrick Kron did say in the press conference that external growth and share buybacks were not the first priority. The press conference was Mr. Kron's last and he took the opportunity to thank his teams for the ‘’great work they’ve done’’ during his 13-year career as CEO. He is replaced by the Alstom Transportation’s segment president, Mr. Henri Poupart-Lafarge.
Alstom reported its H1 15/16 results, governance changes and a return to shareholders.
Alstom reported €1.96bn of orders in Transport for its Q1 15/16, a 59% decrease yoy but Q1 14/15 included the jumbo contract of €4.0bn in South Africa. If we exclude the jumbo contract, the order level is rather strong in comparison with last year although fuelled by small and mid-sized contracts including maintenance of Kazakh locomotives, locomotives in Azerbaijan and a signalling system in Hong Kong.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Alstom. We currently have 11 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Full-year results were slightly above expectations and point to being on track to exceed our previous FY 2018 forecasts slightly. Market conditions remain robust in its main US market, with significant growth seen in Europe. A revised dividend policy gives new clarity to cash returns, (backed by $19m of net cash), and triggers a strong uplift in ordinary dividend plus a supplementary dividend. The shares remain attractive on an earnings basis but also have premium yield attractions. Our raised 465p TP is based on a P/E of 17.0x in 2018 and 16.0x in 2019 and offers strong upside scope to the shares. Market conditions remain favourable and cash returns underwrite our positive stance.
Companies: Somero Enterprises
As the quarter ends and Easter approaches, the results marathon is set to pause. As highlighted previously, the vast majority of results have been as anticipated, with some notable exceptions. The state of the UK economy is improving according to the Chancellor. The MPC meeting on Thursday is likely to leave interest rates unchanged but an increase in May seems likely, even though inflation is set to fall over the next 12 months. We have continued to see significant M&A activity. In Share News & Views, we comment on Braemar Shipping*, Burford, CLS, ECSC*, FDM*, GetBusy* and XLMedia.
Companies: APC BMS CRPR EUSP FDM GETB PCF SNX SPRP TCN W7L
Avon Rubber’s Capital Markets Day highlighted the strength and depth of its product portfolio. Investment in both divisions has ensured that the company is able to address strong growth trends in its end-markets with attractive solutions. Avon Protection has received US regulatory approval for its Powered Air Purifying Respirator range, which should see further orders. Meanwhile, milkrite I InterPuls is offering solutions for productivity improvements to a dairy market increasingly open to technology.
Companies: Avon Rubber
AB Dynamic’s (ABD) shares have risen tenfold since its 2013 AIM admission, fuelled by an impressive 19% organic revenue CAGR. The company is investing in a platform to sustain this performance. In the last 18 months it has opened new facilities, bolstered in-country customer support, reshaped its management structure and raised capital. The final part of this plan, a new CEO, is expected to take the helm in the summer. He, or she, looks set to inherit a business in great shape and enjoying long-term growth drivers. ABD’s investment should help it to capitalise on these trends and sustain its impressive growth.
Companies: AB Dynamics
Two features stood out in Forterra’s first full year results since its IPO: another significant ‘beat’ on cashflow expectations; and the formal signal that Britain’s second biggest brickmaker was to ‘press the button’ on a new plant, having previously waited until there was clear evidence of sustainable housebuilding demand. We believe the time is right, but that the company will remain measured in its expansion, in keeping with what we believe is its conservative track record.
Augean had a tough 2017 in terms of profitability and HMRC assessments regarding potential landfill tax liabilities. Adjusted PBT reduced by 19% to £5.8m driven by a lossmaking legacy Colt contract, a softer year for Energy & Construction, and a higher cost base due to an increase in headcount at the end of 2016. However a sharper focus on cost control meant that net debt was held at £10.8m. Our adjusted PBT and EPS forecasts are unchanged, as segmental adjustments and the disposal of the total waste management business have been offset by cost savings. Our net debt forecasts have fallen reflecting the renewed cost focus, including the decision not to declare a dividend given the ongoing discussions with HMRC. More HMRC assessments have been received, plus a communication that the latest assessment is likely to be significantly reduced, but the total potential liability remains uncertain.
Perfomatrix PLC, a global end to end Performance Marketing technology and services company headquartered in the UK, is looking to join AIM in early April 2018, offer TBC Crusader Resources, an ASX-listed public company incorporated in Australia, which is primarily focused on the exploration and development of gold assets in Brazil. Offer TBC, expected late March. SimplyBiz, a Financial Services Firm, reported to be considering an IPO targeting a market capitalisation of between £140m and £155m in a listing that would raise £30m of new money. Bacanora Lithium—Readmission. No new money. Mkt cap £140m. Due 21 March. the new holding company for Bacanora Minerals Ltd Core Industrial REIT—established to invest in Irish-based industrial properties, predominantly located in the Greater Dublin Area. Vendor placing and new funds to a total of €225m, Target gross proceeds €207m. Expected Mid March Polarean - Medical drug-device combination company operating in the high resolution medical imaging market. Offer TBC. Due26 March
Companies: VLS SGZ SPA MTPH TLY ITQ TFW SAR RHL
Hot on the heels of the recent £4m fund raise and acquisition of the Louisville franchise, Water Intelligence has announced the acquisition of its Bakersfield, California franchise. Bakersfield is one of the larger cities in California and a major centre for agriculture in the US. Drought conditions in California make water loss a particularly sensitive issue with respect to agribusiness. Given these characteristics, the area was significantly under served by the former franchise owner with only $180k of sales in 2017. Water Intelligence has paid $252k for the territory, truck and equipment and plans to expand the operations in this territory rapidly given the size of the opportunity. We have upgraded our FY 2019E EPS by 2% and FY 2020E by 3% and raised our target price to 263p, factoring in value from potential future franchise re-acquisitions.
Companies: Water Intelligence
Northgate issued a complex trading update on Thursday 22nd February with significant implications for forecasts. We anticipated near term downside risk in our 19th January note, but not the magnitude. Our headline PBT forecasts are now cut by 20% in FY’18 to £55.8m, 44% in FY’19 and 31% in FY’20. Despite this rebasing of our forecasts, a number of risks remain – e.g. earnings still declining into FY’19, net debt still rising with covenant pressure in FY’19 and a change in depreciation policy which could increase exposure to vehicle residual values. There is some potential for a turnaround, but management itself does not expect any significant improvement in trading until FY’20. A breakup is a possibility to drive value, but failing that we believe a 30% discount to NAV is justified and set our target price at 279p.
1Spatial issued a positive trading update for the year ending 31 Jan 2018 with overall adjusted EBITDA expected to be in line with expectations. The performance was driven by the core geospatial business which had higher revenues, EBITDA and margins than forecast. The group also announced that it is disposing of its controlling stake in Enables IT (for a nominal sum) allowing it to fully focus its resources to the core geospatial business where it has differentiated IP. We are highly encouraged by the continued progress shown by the group against its strategy, noting some key wins in the UK and the US during the year. As such, we see good upside (>2x revenues) to the current rating of 1.5x EV/sales (only using Geospatial revenues) with continued delivery.
As demonstrated by the recent trading update, XPD continues to grow rapidly by acquisition and also organically (+46% year-on-year in 2017). We anticipate further strong growth during the course of our estimates, driven by a combination of: exposure to faster GDP growth than the UK (CEE & the Baltic states); the relatively newer areas, such as Eshopwedrop and Pall-Ex; new offices, warehouses and services; and, not least, further acquisitions. Our valuation methodology suggests today’s market capitalisation currently undervalued the business by at least 50%, with further corporate activity likely ahead.
Capital Drilling (CAPD): Corp FY results – encouraging margin gain | Water Intelligence (WATR): Corp Acquisition of an underperforming franchise
Companies: Capital Drilling Water Intelligence
Empresaria Group plc (EMR.L, 96p/£47.1m) Full year results to 31 December 2017 | SThree plc (STHR.L, 348p/£452m) Q1 trading update to 28 February 2018
Companies: Empresaria Group SThree
e il futuro
Companies: ABBY BDEV BWY BKG BVS CRN CSP CRST GLE INL MCS PSN RDW SPR TW/ TEF WJG
Full-year results were encouraging and were $1.7m ahead of our PBT forecast, accompanied by a better than expected dividend and strong operational cash flow. 2017 was a year of transition. Existing production contracts have performed well, while rigs are being moved to West Africa to service new production contracts. Focus on operational efficiencies helped boost margins to 11.4%. No change to forecasts. Sentiment remains focused on Tanzanian issues, which remain unresolved, but should also recognise a strong improvement in operational performance. We maintain our 85p price target.
Companies: Capital Drilling