Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on GAUSSIN. We currently have 10 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Yellow flags: another capital increase expected
03 Nov 16
Key information: • Revenue of €4.9m after auditing vs €9.1m announced in June 2016. • Operating income at €-4.9m vs -4.5m in H1 15. • Net income at €-9.7m vs €-4.9m in H1 15. • Equity at €9.3m. • Cash and cash equivalents at €3.8m at 30 September 2016. • Order book down by 14% due to cancellation
Target cut by -39.4% (Gaussin)
03 Nov 16
TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 0.63 vs 1.02 -39.0% We were previously expecting several capital increases over the 2016-2018 period at €1 per share. Now that the share price has collapsed, we no longer expect capital increases at €1 per share but rather at €0.50 per share, resulting in higher dilution. Hence, we have sharply reduced our target price. CHANGE IN EPS2016 : € -0.45 vs -0.07 ns 2017 : € -0.01 vs 0.04 ns Concerning the EPS, we now expect a significant net loss for the full year, whereas we had previously been expecting slightly negative net income. CHANGE IN NAV€ 0.90 vs 1.61 -43.9% Our NAV valuation suffers from our new assumption on the capital increases, namely at €0.50 per share instead of €1.00. This results in higher dilution: the 2018 number of shares is now expected to be 78m vs 50m previously. Moreover, the valuation suffers from the fact that the order book has decreased by 14%. As the company is highly leveraged, this has a compounding effect on our valuation. CHANGE IN DCF€ 1.11 vs 1.27 -12.4% Our DCF valuation suffers from our new assumption on the capital increases, namely at €0.50 per share instead of €1.00. This results in higher dilution: the 2018 number of shares is now expected to be 78m vs 50m previously.
Issue of convertible bonds does not change the big picture (Gaussin)
20 Jul 16
Issue of convertible bonds does not change the big picture EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 1.11 vs 1.10 +1.02% Following a decrease in our forecast of WCR, net debt has been lowered. As a result, the EV/EBITDA peer valuation increased sharply and compensated for the decrease in our DCF, resulting in an unchanged target price and recommendation. CHANGE IN EPS2016 : € -0.07 vs -0.05 ns 2017 : € 0.04 vs 0.04 -1.55% As we have changed the timeline for the capital increases following the issue of €10m of convertible bonds from 2016 to 2017 and 2018, this had an impact on the average number of shares for the year 2016. We have not changed our net income forecast. CHANGE IN NAV€ 1.61 vs 1.64 -1.83% In our NAV, the lower net debt expected at 2016 year-end had a positive effect on the valuation and we have also increased the valuation of the licence which was compensated by a decrease in the multiple used for the Port division from 0.7x order book to 0.6x, as we now forecast a lower EBITDA margin than previously for this division, and by the removal of DTA from gross assets as a result of the warning by auditors. Our forecast concerning the number of shares remains mostly unchanged. CHANGE IN DCF€ 1.29 vs 1.52 -14.7% In our DCF, the main change is the lower forecasted EBITDA margin from 2018 onwards. We now assume a 15.5% EBITDA margin from 2018 onwards versus 19.0% previously. The change was motivated by the fact that the average EBITDA margin for the capital goods sector is roughly 14%, and therefore our assumptions were not conservative enough. The lower net debt expected partially had an offsetting effect on our DCF valuation. We have left capex assumptions unchanged. Our forecast concerning the number of shares remains mostly unchanged.
Target cut by -17.8% (Gaussin)
06 Jul 16
TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 1.08 vs 1.31 -17.7% Following the publication of the H1 16 sales number, we have revised our model. The main changes are a lowering in our 2016 revenue forecast from c.€30m to c.€18m for 2016 and a decrease in 2016 net income from €0m to €-2m, as well as the lowering of our forecasts for 2017. Beyond 2018, our hypothesis is mainly unchanged. We might have to reduce our net income forecast after the publication of the H1 16 financial statements if we deem that our forecasts are not conservative enough. Overall, this has a negative impact on the peers' valuation as we use 18-month forecasts. The NAV and the DCF are mainly unchanged as we maintain our opinion that the long-term potential remains intact, should Gaussin manage to find an industrial partner. CHANGE IN EPS2016 : € -0.05 vs 0.00 ns 2017 : € 0.04 vs 0.07 -48.3% We were expecting a higher revenue than the one posted by the company. Following this release, we have reduced our forecasts for 2016 and 2017. We now expect 2016 net income to once again be in negative territory.
EPS upgrade (2015: from € -0.45 to -0.54, 2016: from € -0.09 to 0.00) (Gaussin)
17 May 16
EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 1.26 vs 1.35 -6.59% Following the release of the 2015 annual results, we have updated our model. We have made only minor changes to our forecast. Note that we still expect the number of shares to cross the 50m threshold in the next few years, a sharp increase compared to the 2.5m shares in 2009. We also continue to forecast an EBITDA margin in the vicinity of 20% by 2018 onwards and an EBITDA growth rate of 7% between 2018 and 2026. Note also that should the company manage to raise capital at €2 per share, this would act positively on our valuation as it would reduce the dilution. CHANGE IN EPS2016 : € 0.00 vs -0.09 ns 2017 : € 0.07 vs 0.07 +7.10% 2015 EPS is lower than expected for a simple reason: we were previously forecasting Gaussin to raise capital before the end of 2015. The capital increase finally occurred at the beginning of 2016, so that the number of shares at the end of 2015 is less than expected which increases the loss per share. Note that the net loss is better than expected.
20 Feb 17
Hayward Tyler Group* (HAYT): Trading update and financial position (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDL): Interim results (BUY) | Gemfields* (GEM): Interim results (CORP) | Premaitha Health* (NIPT): Middle East momentum (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): Acquisition update and TE-8 well spud (HOLD) | Proactis* (PHD): Interim trading on track (CORP) | 7digital* (7DIG): Automotive contract win (CORP)
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
21 Feb 17
Lighthouse Group* (LGT): Middle Britain growth (CORP) | Utilitywise* (UTW): Double-digit sales growth (CORP) | Trakm8* (TRAK): Earnings expectations cut again (CORP) | dotDigital* (DOTC): Myriad growth opportunities (CORP) | Artilium* (ARTA): Five-year Telenet deal secured and prepaid (CORP) | Netcall* (NET): Cloud investment pays off (CORP)
Emerging from the clouds
16 Feb 17
Rolls-Royce’s underlying performance in FY16 was ahead of both its own and market expectations. Media focus on the non-cash £4.4bn headline FX loss is missing what looks to be the basis for optimism. As the civil model starts to move from investment in engines for the A350 and A330neo into the aftermarket delivery phase over the remainder of the decade, we think cash flow is likely to improve, particularly if supported by an eventual recovery in Marine.
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - New quality style screen + 11 quality focus stocks
09 Feb 17
We introduce our fourth and final style screen representing “quality”. This screens for stocks with the best combination of high returns on capital/equity, EBIT margins and operating cash-flow conversion rates. These criteria should help us monitor how strong underlying returns translate into share price performance over time and under varying market conditions. The screen selects the “best” 25 stocks from our universe of just over 500 stocks and, as usual, we focus on a shorter list of stocks we cover or otherwise know and believe to be particularly interesting. We provide brief investment summaries on these focus stocks on pages 4 – 9. We will monitor performance and refresh the screen in approximately 3-4 months time.
Share & share alike
14 Feb 17
The rally in the last fortnight, highlighted in the table, reflects a continued flow of positive updates and economic news. The FTSE 250, Small cap and Fledgling indices have reached record highs. We are in the lull ahead of results for those companies with a December year end, a welter of economic data regarding the UK economy, the State of the Union address in the US on 28 February and the UK Budget on Wednesday 8 March. We will learn at that stage the latest forecasts from the Office of Budget Responsibility. As highlighted previously, the reaction to corporate updates will continue to set the tone.