Closing the Bolloré Africa Logistics chapter

Much like 2021, 2022 will be a milestone for Bolloré, marked by the transfer of the group to the new generation in February and the closing of the Bolloré Africa Logistics chapter. We see this €5.7bn deal, which opens the door to the reshuffling of the HoldCo’s portfolio, as positive from both a financial and a timing point of view. Combined with the record results expected for 2022, we reiterate our favourable opinion on the stock.

Bolloré is maintaining its upward momentum but for how long?

Bolloré closed another upbeat quarter, posting impressive revenue growth of 16% lfl yoy in Q3. Again this quarter, Transport & Logistics and Oil Logistics were the main growth drivers, benefiting from higher freight rates and the sharp rise in oil prices. But as the acquisition of the Bolloré Africa Logistics division by MSC looms, oil prices might revert back, and since Vivendi did not perform so well this quarter, questions are being raised about the sustainability of Bolloré’s growth.

The big winner of market turmoil

Bolloré closed an upbeat H1 2022, posting impressive growth in revenues, EBITDA and net income. Transport & Logistics and Oil Logistics were the main drivers of these record results, both of which benefited from the current economic climate: higher freight rates and a sharp rise in oil prices. All in all, impressive results that should please investors.

Decent Q2, but restrained by maintenance shutdowns and cost headwinds

Despite healthy prices, Boliden’s Q2 results missed street expectations. Besides guided maintenance shutdowns, the impact of spiralling cost inflation was evident in both divisions. Moreover, given the ferocious commodity pricing correction underway since late Q2, further operating performance normalisation in the coming quarters seems inevitable. However, by virtue of its smelting exposure, precious metal diversity and valuable SEK-driven tailwinds, Boliden seems ‘relatively’ better positioned

Exceptional Q1 results; but various risks/uncertainties lie ahead

On the back of war-induced pricing euphoria, Boliden reported exceptional Q1 22 results, with both divisions performing well. While prices helped dwarf cost concerns in Q1, this may not be the case in the coming quarters. Moreover, with serious growth concerns in the Swedish firm’s focus markets, the sustainability of the current results looks increasingly difficult. While Boliden is an apt and well-balance proxy for Europe’s long-term metal demand, it is also risky given the brewing challenges.

Q1 22: Bolloré gets off to a good start in 2022

Bolloré closed an impressive Q1 with strong revenue growth across all divisions. The group’s Transport and Logistics activity was boosted by the increase in freight forwarding and the Oil Logistics activity was supported by the strong rise in oil prices in the context of the war in Ukraine. The electricity storage and systems business also witnessed a boost in sales with higher sales of buses, plastic films and specialized terminals.

After UMG-led FY21, all eyes are on the Africa Logistics disposal

Bolloré’s 2021 was a milestone year, marked by the successful spin-off of Vivendi’s crown jewel UMG and the surprising announcement of a potential exit of Bolloré’s historical African logistics business. The 2022 outlook will be marked by this major deal, opening the door for a complete revamp of the HoldCo’s portfolio in the hands of the new generation, which formally took over the family endeavour in February.

Impressive results and rewards, but time to turn cautious

After a disappointing Q3, Boliden has reported impressive Q4 results and summed up to healthy 2021 results. Broad-based price gains (and Q4 FX tailwinds) overshadowed volume disruptions and (brewing) cost challenges. Management again announced attractive shareholder rewards. However, various cost risks and pricing vulnerabilities lie ahead. While Boliden by virtue of its business model remains well-positioned to withstand market volatility, for now, the downside risks are higher and, hence, we m

SP Angel Morning View: Lithium carbonate breaks over US$40,400/t in China

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SP Angel Morning View: Battery metals rise despite strong US dollar on inflation and rate hike concerns

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An eventful Q3 elevated by solid revenue growth across core businesses

Bolloré closed an upbeat Q3, posting impressive revenue growth for its Transportation & Logistics business, as well as a sales surge for Oil Logistics boosted by rising oil prices. On the Vivendi side, the de facto takeover bid of Lagardère following its agreement signed with Amber Capital points to the family’s next major move after the successful completion of the UMG spin-off, which has led to the Bolloré parent holding an 18% stake on the now independent crown jewel.

Disappointing Q3 but Buy case remains intact

Although Boliden reported soft Q3 results – largely due to guided maintenance shutdowns and some unexpected production issues – the firm remains in a strong position to leverage favourable market dynamics. Besides the near-term disruption in (European) zinc markets, the recovery in smelting charges is a good omen. Furthermore, the firm’s strong positioning in Europe – where demand fundamentals are ‘relatively’ more stable vs. the likes of China – makes the Swedish firm a good sector bet.

French media rumours of Bolloré exiting African activities

Bolloré could be looking to exit its long-standing logistics activities in Africa according to French media. Although the company has not commented on the matter — so it remains all speculation — we see this potential move as a clear positive. Bolloré is faced with the high capital intensity of the business while affronting competitive pressures from deeper-pocketed and expanding rivals. Supportive valuations for logistics & port operators and the upcoming departure of Vincent Bolloré suggest th

Decent Q2; though be prepared for a sombre H2

On the back of healthier prices, this time Boliden reported decent Q2 operating results. Although the performance fell below expectations. Mining continued to do well, but Smelting came under some pressure. While Boliden remains an attractive European bet, the near term is likely to be restrained by market volatility, planned maintenance shutdowns and growing inflation risk(s).

Bolloré's grasp on Vivendi set for major shake up

In a letter addressed to Vivendi, Bolloré has committed to not ask the French market authority (AMF) for an exemption of launching a takeover bid on Vivendi, triggered if the HoldCo finds itself crossing the regulatory threshold of 30% of the share capital.

Top Picks for 2023 - 2022 review and outlook for 2023

On 10 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2022, in what turned out to be a very poor twelve months for global equities, due to war, accelerating inflation, political instability and recession fears. Between 7 January 2022 and 31 December 2022, the AIM All-Share Index declined 30.0%, whilst the average performance of our ten top picks was -24.7%, a modest relative outperformance. In this note we discuss the performance of our 2022 top picks, equities trends in 2022, and our

LIBERUM: Vertu Motors - Helston acquisition an excellent strategic fit

Morning Note – 26 January 2023

SHORE CAPITAL - XP Factory+ (XPF, House Stock at 16p)

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 23 Jan 23

23 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 19 Jan 23

19 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

YE update – another positive staging post for new team

The YE update shows that strong LFL and operational momentum was sustained in H2. Overall FY22 system sales grew by 20% and LFLs by 21%, led by volume/mix as the new CEOs actions begin to take effect. We make no forecast changes, but the positive H2 profitability trend cited is an important inflection point in the context of DPP now moving to sustainable profits. A well-capitalised balance sheet also means expansion is firmly on the agenda. The key point is that international evidence shows once

SHORE CAPITAL - Motorpoint Group+ (MOTR) - House Stock at 145p

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 Jan 23

24 January 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object

Spring is finally coming

The market reacted positively to easyJet’s Q1 trading update as the meaningful pricing tailwind and the continued restoration of load factors allowed for consensus-beating results and guidance. The buoyancy was further fuelled by the low-cost rivals’ promising stance on summer activities. We expect an upgrade in the consensus and to our valuation.

BOTB - Beats forecasts, £6.275m return of capital announced

BOTB prelims were slightly ahead of our forecasts, which we recently raised post the May trading statement. Trading continues to normalise despite the uncertain consumer outlook, driven by constant fine-tuning to changing market conditions. BOTB also declared a 6p/share (£0.565k) final dividend and a £6.275m return of capital via tender offer, equivalent to 66.7p/share; and 72.7p and £6.84m combined. We have increased our EPS (Dil. Adj.) forecasts by 23% to 53.9p from 43.9p for FY23E, and by 21%

Cenkos: Consumer Q1/23

Key Observations Despite a second successive decline in CPI during the quarter, inflation remained at one of the highest levels in 40 years (10.5% in December) contributing to a winter of discontent, with each day in December facing some form of industrial action. The industrial action materially impacted the consumer sector and provided an insight into the simmering frustration around the decline in real wages of the UK population. There were multiple examples of consumer corporate failures d

Tintra plc Initiation

Tintra plc (TNT.L) has an ambitious strategy to build new global banking infrastructure. This will be distinct from existing banks and fintechs, as it is specifically designed to finance growth in cross-border trade for emerging economies. The group identified issues in ways that existing banks serve these markets, which often put their customers at a disadvantage vs developed economy equivalents. Tintra believes that only an entirely new global network of regulated financial services providers

SHORE CAPITAL - Rank Group^ (RNK, Buy at 91p) H1: Guidance unchanged but signs of life

BOTB - Board strengthening and new forecasts

The group has announced a broadening and strengthening of the board through two new appointments. We introduce an additional two years of forecast and raise our target price to £31.