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The group reported slightly below-consensus Q3 revenue but upgraded its FY23 guidance amidst current macro and geopolitical uncertainties. The latter should be well-received but to an insignificant extent as the revised objectives are broadly in line with the market’s expectations. We have raised our 2023 EPS by 2.2%.
Companies: Accor (AC:EPA)Accor SA (AC:PAR)
AlphaValue
Accor reported a consensus-matching H1 and revised its 2023 outlook modestly upwards. We arrive at a higher EPS forecast after factoring the new information into our model and expect a slight increase in the consensus.
Accor provided a closer look at different brands, regional businesses and the new organisation on its investors day. The 2023 guidance is, overall, market-beating and the magnitude of growth for the mid-term remains in line with our expectations. The major surprise came from the larger-than-expected €3bn shareholder returns through dividends and buy-backs. We have upgraded our target price and recommendation.
Accor’s rosy Q1 sales were largely led by the long-awaited recovery in Asia, robust pricing and improving occupancy. The solid trading momentum enabled the group to upgrade its FY guidance, which also strengthened our bullish conviction. We expect an increase in the consensus and our estimates.
Solid trading momentum in Q4 with robust pricing having fully offset the dawdling occupancy. The FY top-line recovered earlier than expected and the EBITDA beat the guidance, despite more efforts on margin resumption being needed. We expect an increase in the consensus and our estimates.
Accor’s quarterly RevPAR and revenue both surpassed their 2019 levels and by a greater magnitude than in Q2. Trading was supportive in all regions except in Asia, while the zero-COVID policy in China is likely to linger for longer. We expect a minor increase in the consensus but we will maintain our estimates, which are in line with the renewed guidance.
The share price fell due to the market-missing Q2 EBITDA and conservative outlook, despite a strong rebound in RevPAR to above its 2019 level. We expect a downgrade in the consensus, but no major change is expected to our current estimates which remain consistent with the guidance.
The market reaction is expected to be positive to Accor’s consensus-beating Q1 revenue. Despite the lack of financial guidance, especially in terms of inflationary pressures, we will upgrade our FY22 revenue estimates to reflect the encouraging recovery in the Travel & Leisure activities.
Accor reported slightly market-beating FY21 results, thanks to sequential RevPAR improvements and stronger-than-planned cost reductions. The group expects a robust restoration of activities in FY22, largely led by favourable pricing, and aims to resume dividend payments as soon as possible. Regardless, the outlook might be affected by some inflation pressures.
Accor’s Q3 revenue improved considerably from last quarter, but it still lagged by 40% from the 2019 level. Q4 would be hard to perform much better due to seasonability effects. Nevertheless, the narrowing EBITDA loss is worth noting, even though the improvement is not significant.
We had an Investment Conference with Accor: the latest statistics support the group’s previously communicated forecast for its FY21 performance.
Accor’s H1 results beat the market thanks to tighter cost control and helpful business recovery in Australia. However, the market did not celebrate due to the H2 guidance with no surprises and few improvements vs H1. The consensus is expected to be downgraded.
Accor delivered a weaker-than-expected revenue in Q1, with no major improvement vs. in the last quarter, but it confirmed rather positive indicators in margins and cash burn.
Accor’s FY20 results suffered from the global travel restrictions and fewer travellers, but were broadly consistent with the market’s expectations and the liquidity position remained solid as usual. However, we do not expect a much better FY21, especially the cheerless H1.
The French-based international hotel leader Accor today confirmed a lifestyle joint-venture and the full acquisition of sbe, a lifestyle operator.
Companies: Accor SA
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Accor SA. We currently have 136 research reports from 6 professional analysts.
Vertu is the fourth largest automotive retailer in the UK, with 188 sales outlets and a track record of cross-cycle growth, principally through businesses it has acquired, funded by equity, debt and most importantly cash generation. Vertu operates across the entire vehicle lifecycle, including new and used vehicle sales, and vehicle servicing, repair and parts. Service and repair is a 40+% gross margin repeating business. With economic headwinds, the transition to electric vehicles, recent overs
Companies: Vertu Motors PLC
Progressive Equity Research
Today’s trading statement from ZOO highlights a ramp-up in demand following the end to the industry-wide strikes of last year. ZOO struck a note of caution in its January update regarding the timing of orders. However new productions are starting to translate into a healthy order pipeline, with a good recovery in revenue anticipated in H1 FY25. The update guides to revenue of at least $40m for the year to March 2024, ahead of our estimate at $36.8m. We have improved our adjusted EBITDA loss marg
Companies: ZOO Digital Group plc
Loungers is an award winning, uniquely positioned all day café-bar group that has grown revenues an impressive 22.5% CAGR FY16-FY23. Comprising of Lounges, Cosy Club and Brightside, the 257-site group still has huge scope to grow towards its conservative ambition of over 650 sites. Loungers is profitable with improving margins and we forecast will generate over £100m free cashflow (pre-expansion capex) FY24E-FY26E. This, we estimate, will fully fund c.100 new site openings over the next three y
Companies: Loungers Plc
Equity Development
The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (
Companies: TXG NDVA TSVT BCOW Z29 TXG NCYT GNS SUN AMS OMG APH EKF EAH IMM AGL DEMG AGY TSTL IPO GDR ETX TRX HVO CTEC AVO OXB DEST VLG IXI VAL INDV AGR AVCT BAI 123F IMCR BCOW
Hardman & Co
Companies: Next plc (NXT:LON)Judges Scientific plc (JDG:LON)
Shore Capital
Companies: JDW MAB MARS WTB FSTA BOWL CPG SSPG LGRS SSTY OTB HSW TMO GYM MEX
Liberum
Pinewood’s transition to a pure-play automotive SaaS business is now largely complete. Today we introduce summary forecasts out to FY26 and reiterate the investment case. We see significant opportunity for Pinewood to grow its user base in the UK and internationally whilst generating high EBITDA margins and cash conversion. With a 24.5p special dividend embedded in the current price (payable Q1/Q2), the effective price today is 12.3p. Based on the Group’s FY27 target of £27m EBITDA, we estimate
Companies: Pinewood Technologies Group PLC
Zeus Capital
This morning’s trading statement from ZOO confirms that production companies are taking longer than expected to complete projects. This follows the resumption of new production after the industry-wide strikes ended in November 2023. The anticipated January ramp-up has yet to fully materialise, with entertainment projects expected to complete in January now moving into February and beyond. However, ZOO has been notified by its largest customer of a pipeline of orders that provides good visibility
Companies: UTL ASC DNLM BWNG MONY DFS BOO
The Great Correction of 2022 saw the share prices of streamers plunge after market leader Netflix reported a slowdown/fall in subscriber growth. Having formerly been seduced by hectic subscriber growth rates, investors quickly refocused, this time on fundamental metrics such as revenue, margins, profits and cashflow. Since then, streamers have continued to take a steadily greater share of viewing while linear TV continues to decline. But growth in streaming subscribers in the US and UK is now a
Companies: AMZN DIS WBD NFLX NFLX ITV STVG PARA AMZN DIS
Flutter reported softer than expected Q3 23 trading numbers, as unfavourable sports results weighed on the cross-market performance. The firm lost share in the US even as competition intensified in a seasonally light sports quarter, sending the stock sharply lower. However, we expect a strong recovery in the US in Q4 even as Australia is now expected to remain a pain point into FY24. We will trim our estimates by low to mid-single digits to factor in the soft showing.
Companies: Flutter Entertainment Plc
Companies: Rank Group Plc
Companies: CTG NXT JTC
During 2023, ME Group commenced the deployment of its next generation photobooths, which are integrated with the group’s newly developed proprietary software, gained market leadership in the Japanese photobooth market with an acquisition, continued to roll out laundry units with existing and new location partners, commenced a share buyback programme and gained entry into the FTSE 250. 2023 was a year of significant strategic and financial progress, with sales up 15%, EPS up 31% and net cash main
Companies: ME Group International plc
Cavendish
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