Bolloré closed an upbeat Q3, posting impressive revenue growth for its Transportation & Logistics business, as well as a sales surge for Oil Logistics boosted by rising oil prices. On the Vivendi side, the de facto takeover bid of Lagardère following its agreement signed with Amber Capital points to the family’s next major move after the successful completion of the UMG spin-off, which has led to the Bolloré parent holding an 18% stake on the now independent crown jewel.
Companies: Bollore (BOL:EPA)Bollore SA (BOL:PAR)
Bolloré could be looking to exit its long-standing logistics activities in Africa according to French media. Although the company has not commented on the matter — so it remains all speculation — we see this potential move as a clear positive. Bolloré is faced with the high capital intensity of the business while affronting competitive pressures from deeper-pocketed and expanding rivals. Supportive valuations for logistics & port operators and the upcoming departure of Vincent Bolloré suggest th
In a letter addressed to Vivendi, Bolloré has committed to not ask the French market authority (AMF) for an exemption of launching a takeover bid on Vivendi, triggered if the HoldCo finds itself crossing the regulatory threshold of 30% of the share capital.
Bolloré closed a strong first quarter for its Transportation and Logistics division, partly offset by the weakness from Oil Logistics, while Vivendi was led once again by top performer UMG (soon to be spun-off). The transport and logistics activity outperformance was driven by the strong trading environment stemming from global inventory rebuilding efforts as cyclical sectors emerge from a post-pandemic slumber, a trend that should extend through H1 21.
Vivendi has finally revealed its future plans for UMG, with Bolloré now finding itself as one of the major beneficiaries from the upcoming spin-off of what is, by far, Vivendi’s most valuable asset. This surprising development, which has been most likely orchestrated by Bolloré (up to a certain extent), could result in a complete rethink of the HoldCo’s investment strategy for years to come.
Companies: Bollore SA
Following the unexpected resilience shown by the transportation & logistics division in H1, the third quarter trading statement held fewer surprises. The second half seems less challenging than expected for Bolloré’s key businesses, with both communications and transportation & logistics posting very modest, but still positive, sales growth. Nonetheless, the continued weakness in oil logistics risks pulling down the group’s full-year results.
While we were anticipating Bolloré’s Q2 to be tough, particularly for its transportation & logistics division, an unexpected rise in air freight and positive price developments supported the division’s trading results and profitability in H1. The proven resilience of Vivendi (and UMG in particular), in addition to stronger ‘core activities’ at the Bolloré level, point to a less gloomy outlook despite the challenges of a still uncertain H2 economic recovery.
While Bolloré’s group revenues in Q1 saw a limited impact from the COVID-19 outbreak, banking on Vivendi’s relative resilience to the crisis may not prove to be enough to offset the negative impact on the holding’s transport and logistics activities. The 2020 scenario for Bolloré ex-Vivendi remains quite challenging indeed.
Bolloré released sales figures that, despite falling in line with our estimates, paint a worrisome picture for the group’s ‘core activities’ (i.e. excluding Vivendi). Particularly in the context of a latent global slowdown due to the Covid-19 outbreak and its potential impact on global freight volumes and oil product prices. The outlook for 2020 may not differ much from the disappointing performance of Bolloré’s core businesses in 2019.
The widespread decline in air and sea freight volumes spurred on by the trade war and the uncertain macro-economic environment is catching up with Bolloré, with revenues decreasing by 4% lfl in Transportation & Logistics. Nonetheless, the scenario is more upbeat in the Communications division, as UMG continues to post solid rates of growth (up +16%), much to the benefit of Vivendi (+7%). Opportune disposals of non-core assets should keep the cash flowing in spite of a challenging outlook for Bol
Capital Continues to Flow Into LMIs
Through April and May we have seen three more listed managed
investment vehicles (LMIs) start trading on the ASX including two
fixed income focused listed investment trusts (LITs), Perpetual Credit
Income Trust (ASX:PCI) and MCP Wholesale Income Opportunities
Trust (ASX:MOT). Refer to our LMI Monthly Update of 18 March 2019
for more details on these LITs.
Pengana Private Equity Trust (ASX:PE1) units listed in April after
it raised $205m, at the lower
The 11% organic growth posted by Transportation & Logistics, the historical heart of Bolloré, is a positive surprise in a context of downgraded world GDP growth.
Putting it simply, we find it difficult to reconcile our 2018 forecasts with the H1 release which is a measure of the group’s complexity. The underlying business is in better shape than expected while building up the stake in Vivendi is a high-wire exercise.
The boss and owner of Bolloré SA is meeting French judges on African corruption allegations. This matters less than a business which is far too complicated for comfort when issues are surfacing from too many corners (Africa, Italy, Batteries).
Bolloré SA fully consolidates Vivendi and has published unappetising earnings.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Bollore SA.
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Public Policy Holding Company, to join AIM. PPHC, through its wholly-owned companies, operates a portfolio of independent firms that offer public affairs, crisis management, lobbying and advocacy services on behalf of corporate, trade association and non-profit client organisations. Mkt Cap and Capital to be raised TBC. Expected admission date Mid Dec.
Libertine to join AIM. Libertine has developed a technolog
Companies: TRAK GAMA AAZ FNTL DPP
Windward (WNWD.L) has joined AIM. Windward is a leading predictive intelligence company, fusing artificial intelligence (AI) and maritime expertise seeking to digitalise the global maritime industry. As at 30 September 2021, the Company had 120 permanent employees and had an annual contract value of US$19.7m, with 99 per cent. of the revenue being subscription based. The Placing raised gross proceeds of £26.3m (US$35m) of new capital for the Company and £8.2m (US$10.9m) for certain exist
Companies: SPSY MMH KEFI BRSD IKA SEMP
Interim results are stellar, commentary on current trading is upbeat and the pace of rollout is set to be stepped up a notch. We push through a 6% current year EBITDA upgrade and formally introduce FY23 and FY24 forecasts. These show a sector leading 2 year EBITDA CAGR of 27% - all self-funded from FCF. Omicron has created a degree of sector uncertainty but FUL has balance sheet strength and is well positioned to capitalise if trade migrates back to delivery and takeaway. On growth criteria the
Companies: Fulham Shore Plc
Companies: Loungers Plc
After a stellar period of trading through the various stages of Covid 19 restrictions, and easings, ScS
has reported a step-back in trading momentum in recent weeks. We await to see if the slower
trading is temporary, reflective of a change in Christmas shopping patterns, or of a more permanent
basis. We leave forecasts unchanged, looking for CPTP of £13.7m and EPS of 26.5p (both IFRS 16
compliant), as such the stock trades on an undemanding EV/EBITDA multiple of 4x for FY22 and 3.4x
Companies: ScS Group plc
Pendragon has released a trading update today increasing its guidance for FY21 underlying PBT from £70m to approximately £80m. The Group attributes this lower than expected shortfall in the supply of new vehicles in the first two months of Q4 2021. Performance has also been supported by a strong GPPU because of a higher mix of premium vehicles sold. We have increased our FY21 forecasts of underlying PBT by 14.1% to £80.2m. We leave our FY22 and FY23 forecasts unchanged at this stage. Whilst we t
Companies: Pendragon PLC
An unscheduled but positive update this morning with good news on 5 fronts – full repayment of the CLBIL, new banking facilities, international franchising, strong current trading and site expansion. Margins are being maintained and going into 2022 we cite various factors which should mitigate the well-publicised sector headwinds. We make no forecast changes today but do see further upside risk. Whilst there’s been a strong recovery in the share price since 2020, the valuation is far from full.
Flutter reported muted Q3 20 sales numbers, which missed estimates. Sales were up 12%, driven by the strength in the US and Australia. However, the former posted its first quarter of sequential revenue decline, an indication of the increased competition in the highly attractive market.
Following the pause in operations in the Netherlands (~£50m EBITDA impact over the next three quarters), the firm lowered its FY21 EBITDA target by ~7%. We will be downgrading our estimates.
Companies: Flutter Entertainment Plc
easyJet’s FY21 results correspond to the market’s anticipations as the preliminary figures were communicated previously. Despite the worsening COVID-19 situation in Europe, the group seems upbeat on its capacity forecast for the next FY. Too early to judge whether it is too optimistic as all depends upon the development of the new Omicron variant.
Companies: easyJet plc
Cornerstone is a provider of foreign exchange (forex), payment and currency risk management services, with a focus on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) internationally. As one of a handful of UK-listed companies in this segment, the company is well-placed to act as a consolidator in a highly fragmented marketplace. The core technology platform is a source of competitive differentiation in the SME segment, and this is being evolved to integrate with accounting systems, in turn evolving th
Companies: Cornerstone FS Plc
Today's news & views, plus announcements from HL., POG, AUGM, WIX, DUKE MIND & BIRD.
Companies: Petropavlovsk PLC (POG:LON)Wickes Group Plc (WIX:LON)
During the challenges of Covid, N Brown has taken the opportunity to accelerate its transformation programme. Strategic change was augmented by the FY2021 £100m equity raise, which alongside strong underlying cash generation sees the Group with a now comfortable balance sheet, with £80.8m of core net cash and all debt securitised against customer receivables. Management has again reiterated medium term targets for 7% annual Product sales growth and a 14% Group EBITDA margin, from which we take c
Companies: N Brown Group plc
Flutter reported consensus-beating H1 21 numbers as pro forma revenue grew 30%. Adjusted EBITDA declined 13%, attributable to larger US losses.
Management expects FY 21 ex-US adjusted EBITDA of £1,270-1,370m, and a £225-275m loss in the US. Hence, aggregate EBITDA should come in at £1.05-1.1bn, in line with consensus but below our estimates.
Following the H1 performance, we do not expect any major changes to our estimates as top-line momentum will be partially offset by softer margin developme
Sportech (SPO) has announced plans to return £36m surplus cash to shareholders by way of a tender offer, at 40p for up to 47% of the issued share capital. Assuming the offer is all taken up, SPO will be left with 100m shares outstanding. The deal requires court approval to create the necessary distributable reserves. SPO also announced that it was in discussions to sell its terrestrial lottery business for ca.$14m. The potential upside from the newly agreed sports betting deal in Connecticut (CT
Companies: Sportech PLC
Exactly one year ago, the FTSE 100 closed at 5,862, having fallen 100 points on the day, the lowest point since mid-May 2020, due in part, to the strength of sterling vs US$ at $1.34. One year on, the FTSE 100 has risen to 7,119, a rise of 21%, it remains 7% below the peak in January 2020. From an international viewpoint, US and European markets continue to trade at record highs. The US Federal Reserve is close to withdrawing some of its economic support this year as inflation picks up and the e
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