Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on CROSSJECT. We currently have 9 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
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A strategic review… and some adjustments to our forecasts (Crossject)
24 Nov 16
A strategic review… and some adjustments to our forecasts TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 19.3 vs 24.4 -21.0% Our target price goes down, mainly due to the lower DCF valuation after the group presented its new strategy in mid-november, which is based on a focus on emergency products, the US and a larger agreement with Cenexi, which should spend over €5m to bring total capacities to over 10m units a year (vs 2m). Timing remains the main issue and is of course the first reason behind our lower valuation, which also captures the disappointment after the group postponed again the market launch of Zeneo, by at least a year (2019 at the earliest vs late 2017 previously). CHANGE IN EPS2016 : € -0.90 vs -0.90 2017 : € -0.50 vs -0.36 ns Our EPS goes marginally down for FY17, where we initially had the first revenues stemming from Methotrexate, which are now postponed to FY19. Other than this, we have not changed our short–term forecasts. CHANGE IN NAV€ 24.5 vs 28.7 -14.7% Our SOTP valuation also goes down, since it is computed on average sales over the first year after each product reaches the market (FY19-21). In particular, sales are lower per product since US sales will typically come a year after first European sales, while average prices are higher in the US, explaining the bulk of the lower valuation obtained through this method, which leads to very similar results to the DCF. CHANGE IN DCF€ 23.0 vs 31.6 -27.2% We have revised our forecasts, based on later-than-expected product launches (with, for each product, a first launch in Europe and a year later in the US). We have also lowered the level of capex from 2017 onwards, since the bulk of capex will be spent by Cenexi, the group’s global industrial partner. We have so far considered that the level of margins is unchanged compared to the scenario where Crossject was investing and producing Zeneo devices instead of subcontracting. Our valuation, unsurprisingly, goes down, in line with our view that timing is the biggest issue the group currently has to face and despite a lower future capex level.
When apparent threats are also opportunities
29 Aug 16
Mylan’s EpiPen was subject to fierce criticism from politicians including “President-to-be” Hillary Clinton after the generics maker raised the price of its emergency allergy injector by some 500% (!) in the past five years to over US$300 per unit (i.e. over US$600 for a pack of two, sold for €76 in France for instance).
23 Jun 16
Recently, Crossject disclosed the identity of the product behind its L15 programme. L15 is its needle-free version of hydrocortisone, which Crossject will develop for the treatment of acute adrenal insufficiency, a potentially fatal condition. The company expects the commercial launch of the product in H118, although we believe peak sales will be a modest €9m as it is a niche market with little pricing power.
Making injections simple, quick and needle-free
13 Jun 16
Crossject has developed a deep pipeline of products that are based on its proprietary needle-free injection system, ZENEO, across a variety of indications. The benefits of ZENEO include no need for needles, as well as a simple and quick (~1/10th of a second) delivery of the drug. Its first commercial product, ZENEO Methotrexate for rheumatoid arthritis, should reach the market in 2017. We value the company at €11.96 per share, which is based on the value of four of its nearer-term disclosed programmes.
30 Nov 16
Abzena (ABZA): Interim results indicate happy customers (BUY) | Horizonte Minerals* (HZM): Fund raise completed (CORP) | SacOil* (SAC): Half-year trading statement (CORP) | Revolution Bars (RBG): New openings (BUY) | Amino Technologies* (AMO): Multi operator FUSION roll out (CORP)
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 30-11-2016
30 Nov 16
Sanderson has delivered full year results in line with expectations and the 19 October trading update after a strong finish to the year compensated for a slower start. A healthy level of pre-contracted recurring revenue (50%), incremental sales to existing customers and new customer wins at higher average order values helped deliver solid revenue growth in both the Digital Retail (+9%) and Enterprise (+12%) divisions. A decent order book and good sales momentum suggest that the company is on track to deliver on unchanged profit expectations for the current year. We continue to view the valuation (FY17 EV/EBITDA 8.6x) as undemanding given an attractive combination of accelerating growth potential, strong cash generation and growing dividends.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 29-11-2016
29 Nov 16
Vp has reported another impressive set of interims, confirming strong growth in most markets and a positive outlook. Recent acquisitions are bedding in well and the full year outturn is set to exceed previous expectations (5%/6% EPS upgrades in FY17/FY18). The recent Capital Markets Day provided a reminder of Vp’s qualities (specialist focus, high returns, strong cash generation) and its growth potential, which in our view are not reflected in a modest <11x P/E rating. We firmly believe the shares are due a re-rating and see intrinsic value in excess of 800p.
Panmure Morning Note 02-12-16
02 Dec 16
We expect CareTech to report FY results to September on 8th December. A positive trading update in October indicated that performance for the year was in line with market expectations therefore we are focusing on the outlook. We expect a confident statement since the end of 2016 showed positive trends across fee rates, expansion in places and occupancy. We believe CareTech is well positioned for further expansion, and remains at an attractive valuation. We retain our BUY and 380p price target.
Food intolerance driving growth
29 Nov 16
Omega Diagnostics Group has an established core business providing high quality in vitro diagnostic tests within three core areas of competence – Food Intolerance, Allergy & Autoimmune, Infectious Disease – that are sold in over 100 countries. The group offers steady low single-digit growth which is profitable and cash generative. Investment in new products has seen the launch of a new panel of automated allergy tests and progress on Visitect CD4 for monitoring of HIV positive patients. Interim results highlighted the opportunities to accelerate growth of the business, particularly Allersys, which has drawn attention from its partner.
Small Cap Breakfast
29 Nov 16
Asia Pacific Investment Partner - the research-driven emerging and frontier markets real estate development business intends to float on AIM and conduct a placing in December RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m Diversified Oil & Gas— Schedule One now out. $60m to be raised. Expected admission 6 December. Creo Medical Group —UK based medical device company focused on surgical endoscopy, a recent development in minimally invasive surgery. Admission due 7 December. Fundraising details TBA.