Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on TOTAL SA. We currently have 16 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
Q2 16: best results amongst the European big oils
01 Aug 16
By division As mentioned prviously, in upstream, the results were down 28% yoy to $1.1bn. Production grew by 5% yoy, mainly driven by natural gas (+9%) and cost cutting helped to offset the price decrease on a yoy basis (from $58.2/bbl to $43/bbl). Natural gas prices were lower than in Q1 16 at $3.43/mmbtu vs. $3.46/mmbtu for the group and $4.67/mmbtu a year ago. In downstream, earnings were down 25% yoy to $1bn. Refinery throughput decreased by 10% yoy due to outages in Europe and the US. The refining margin, as already announced, was stable vs. Q1 16 and down 35% yoy. The operational improvement of the group’s major integrated platforms in Asia and the Middle East helped. Currently, the margin is at $20/tonne compared to $35/tonne in the first part of the year. The Marketing & Services division reported a $378m adjusted net income, down 11% yoy. Petroleum product sales decreased by 2% yoy due to the sale of TotalGaz and the marketing network in Turkey. Q1 16 was very low and the group believes the second quarter results will back to a normal level. Equity affiliates Affiliates generated a strong +60% increase to $797m. Affiliates in the upstream generated $452m mainly due the increase from Novatek and the increase from GLNG affiliates. In the downstream, affiliates generated $345m thanks to a good petrochemical environment (Korea, Qatar, Saudi Arabia assets). They are like a sort of confederation of businesses. Cash flow Cash flow from operations was $4.6bn before working capital, capex of $3.7bn and dividend of $1.2bn, with only $300m missing to cover capex and dividend (before working capital which was $-1.7bn). Upstream’s cash flow came in 25% higher than in Q1 at $2.3bn before working capital movements. Downstream generated more than $1.6bn before working capital. The group has a huge working capital that it is working on to reduce. In a stable environment, this will reverse but this is not expected. The group was balanced with Brent averaging $40/bbl. The target remains a $60/bbl break even with a cash dividend by 2017. Capex was in line with expectations and is in line with the guidance for the year, of below $19bn earnings thoguh may be closer to $18bn than $19bn. Thanks to the Atotech sale, the group should be able to show net sales in 2016 of $2bn, in line with the target. Other The low tax rate explains part of the earnings beat. As the group’s upstream division is close to break-even at $40-$45/bbl, the tax rate is very sensitive to this oil price level. We have to integrate that the tax will gradually rise, especially after moving above $45/bbl.
First view: better than expected on cost cutting
28 Jul 16
The group published better than expected earnings at $2.17bn compared to $1.9bn. In the upstream, results came down 28% yoy to $1.1bn. Production grew by 5% yoy, mainly driven by natural gas (+9%) and cost cutting helped to offset the price decrease on a yoy basis (from $58.2/bbl to $43/bbl). Natural gas prices were lower than in Q1 16 at $3.43/mmbtu vs. $3.46/mmbtu for the group and $4.67/mmbtu a year ago. In the downstream, earnings came down 25% yoy to $1bn. Refinery throughput decreased by 10% yoy due to outages in Europe and the United States. The refining margin, as already announced, was stable vs. Q1 16 and down 35% yoy. The operational improvement of the group’s major integrated platforms in Asia and the Middle East helped. Marketing & Services division reported a $378m adjusted net income, down 11% yoy. Petroleum product sales decreased by 2% yoy due to the sale of TotalGaz and the marketing network in Turkey. Cash flow from operations was $4.5bn (excluding working capital) compared to $4.5bn capex and a $1.1bn cash dividend.
Good for 2015, more needed for 2016
18 Feb 16
The company reported its Q4 15 results. Adjusted profit came in at $2.1bn, down 26% yoy vs. $1.8bn expected. For the full year, adjusted net income came down 18% to $10.5bn. +*Results by division:*+ 1) In the E&P division, the group reported an adjusted operating income down 81% to $405m. For the full-year 2015, it was down 71% to $4.92bn. The decrease was driven in Q4 15 by the hydrocarbon price at $33.1/bbl. down 34% (nat. gas down 29% yoy). Production in Q4 15 was up 5.5% at 2.35mbpd. The extension of the ADCO concession in the UAE offset asset sales. For the full year, production was +9.4% growth, a record, thanks to nine start-up projects but also to efficiencies that helped to offset the net natural field decline. 2) The Refining & Chemicals division reported a slight decrease in operating income (-7%) to $997m. For the full-year 2015, the results came in 2.2x higher than 2014 at $5.6bn. Refinery throughput was up 2% to 1.93mbpd with a utilisation rate of 87%. The refining margin indicator was at $38.1/t. 3) In the Marketing & Service division, Total reported an adjusted operating income of $691m, up 50% yoy. For the full year, it was up 23% to $2.1bn. The 50% increase was mainly due to the contribution of new energies, related to the completion of the Quinto solar farm in the US. +*Cash flow position*+ In the fourth quarter, operating cash flow came in at $4.9bn, with $0.9bn from working capital. Capex before disposals was $6.6bn and $4.3bn after disposals. The dividend payment was $0.6bn. For the full-year 2015, operating capex was $20bn, capex after disposals of $20.5bn and the dividend at $2.8bn (vs. $7.3bn cash payment in 2014). The Downstream division reported $8bn in cash generation, Organic capex was $23bn, a 15% decrease compared to 2014. Asset sales of $4bn were signed this year in line with the $10bn programme planned over 2015-2017. Gearing at year end decreased to 28%. The dividend was maintained at €0.61/share or €2.44/share for the full year. +*Portfolio management*+ The group also has portfolio management in its strategy. The target for the group in the next three years is to sell $10bn of assets, of which $4bn has been announced in 2015 and $4bn is expected in 2016. Nigeria and Angola remain two key regions with some changes curretnly happening. In Nigeria, there is a new government and is therefore a bit slow on development. In Angola, Total represents 50% of the operated production and is looking to negotiate other new contracts. The group reported $5.4bn of impairments, coming basically from CLNG in Australia (LNG asset). +*Cost cutting*+ Opex savings exceeded the $1.2bn target and reached $1.5bn (realised). As announced in September, the group aims to decrease costs by $3bn (2014-17). There was no change to the target as the group wants to focus on 2016 with a $2.4bn decrease (and $0.7bn more than at end 2015), to reach the $3bn by end 2017. *Cost Reduction* p=. !2opexreduction.JPG! p>. _Source: TOTAL SA_ +*Other: Assets impairments, dilution*+ The negative adjustment of $3.7bn in Q4 15 was mainly driven by impairments in the Gladstone LNG in Australia, and the adjustment in depreciation on Usan in Nigeria following the cancellation of the sale process. For the full year, there was $5.4bn of impairments when including Fort Hill in Canada. The number of fully-diluted shares was 2,336m at end 2015 compared to 2,285m at end 2014 (up 2.3%).
08 Dec 16
Elderstreet stake acquired 02 GENERAL NEWS Globalworth premium In this issue Venture capital firm Draper Esprit has taken a 30.8% stake in venture capital trust manager Elderstreet. Both investment managers focus on the technology sector and they will be able to co-invest. Elderstreet has investments in a number of AIM-quoted companies through its VCTs. The purchase was funded by an issue of Draper Esprit shares worth just over £250,000. Simon Cook, the chief executive of Draper Esprit, is a former partner at Elderstreet so he knows the business and the people who run it, although he did leave more than 14 years ago. Cook has previously acquired portfolios from 3i and Cazenove, two other firms where he has worked. Draper Esprit has an option to acquire the remaining shares in Elderstreet, which has more than £25m under management. Adding Elderstreet to the group enables Draper Esprit to offer investors a range of EIS funds, VCTs and an ISA qualifying listed evergreen patient capital fund. The enlarged group has venture capital assets under management of more than £350m. At the end of September 2016, Draper Esprit had a net asset value of 352p a share, which is similar to the current share price. The June 2016 flotation price was 300p a share. Draper Esprit is quoted on Ireland’s Enterprise Securities Market as well as AIM.
01 Nov 16
Since our last outlook note, Quadrise has begun to supply MSAR for extended LONO sea trials, paving the way for commercial adoption from calendar H217 onwards. In August it signed a memorandum of understanding with clients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which is a key enabler for progressing the production-to-combustion pilot there. In October it completed a placing and open offer raising a total of £5.25m (gross). This should enable it to transition comfortably to the commercial phase on successful completion of the LONO and KSA trials.
Dividends reinstated; is it time to turn (more) optimistic?
08 Dec 16
Glencore continues to surprise the markets, earlier with its fast pace of asset disposals and now with the reinstatement of dividends. The following were the key details shared with investors in a meeting held on 1 December 2016: 1/ completed $6.3bn of asset disposals; 2/ reduced net debt (including readily marketable inventories) by $12.5bn over the last 18 months; 3/ reiterated trading’s 2016 EBIT guidance towards the upper end of the $2.5-2.7bn range; 4/ expects healthy annualised 2016 free cash flows – even at Q1 16 commodity price lows; at 2017 forward prices, FCFs are guided to be $6.5bn; 5/ dividends would be reinstated from 2017 – with $1bn to be paid in two equal tranches in H1 and H2; thereafter (i.e. 2018 onwards), $1bn would be a fixed annual dividend payment (banking on the stability of trading’s cash flows) plus a minimum 25% of FCFs from industrial activities. Production guided to grow Source – Investor Presentation December 2016 While copper would be negatively impacted by the end-of-life impact at Alumbera and the Ernest Henry divestment, the output for all other commodities is guided to be higher (in varying degrees).
Raising Target Price to 2,500p per share
01 Nov 16
Royal Dutch reported clean EPS of US$0.35, nearly 50% ahead of consensus. More importantly, cash flow jumped QoQ to US$8.5bn which should go a long way to confirming Shell’s capacity to maintain the current dividend, despite the increase in gearing to 29.2%. Upstream returned to profitability on an underlying basis for the first time since 1Q15. We believe these results confirm our view that Shell’s dividend can and will be maintained at US$0.47 per quarter and we increase our Target Price to 2,500p per share, given further sterling weakness.