Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Edenred. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Edenred published Q3 FY17 trading results below our estimates as well as market consensus. All growth numbers are on a lfl basis, unless specified otherwise. Operating revenue grew by 7.0% (vs Q2: 7.2% and Q1: 10.0%), which was 300bp below our estimate. Employee benefits (64% of group sales) came in at 3.7% during the quarter (vs Q2: 5.6%, Q1: 6.7% and FY16: 7.6%), largely due to the high unemployment rate in Brazil and challenging conditions in Venezuela (ongoing economic and political crises). Excluding the Venezuelan operations (1% to the company’s consolidated revenues and EBIT), the employee benefits business grew by 4.9% during the quarter. Fleet & Mobility Solutions (26% of group sales) continued to post robust growth (Q3: 17.8%, Q2: 15.9%, Q1: 27.1% and FY16: 13.1%) across all major operating regions. On a reported basis, the segment grew by a staggering 78.8% ytd, benefiting from Embratec and UTA consolidation in May 2016 and January 2017, respectively. Complementary solutions (10% of group sales) clocked 7.5% revenue growth during the quarter. Total reported revenue (operating + financial) increased by 11.5% in Q3 – lfl: 6.6%, scope impact: 6.6% (mainly from the UTA acquisition) and currency impact of -1.7%. Management has reaffirmed full-year guidance – lfl growth in operating revenue: >7%, operating EBIT: >9%, FFO: >10% and full year 2017 EBIT: €420m – €445m.
Edenred released a Q1 17 trading update with numbers ahead of our estimates as well as the market consensus. Please note, the company has stopped sharing issue volume details from 2017 onwards. The operating revenue increased by 10% on a lfl basis (vs Q4 16: 10.0%, Q3 16: 9.9%; our estimate: 8.6%), largely driven by strong growth in both employee benefits (6.7% yoy; c.65% of group revenue) and the expense management business (27.1% yoy; c.25% of group revenue). In employee benefits, all geographies contributed to the growth momentum except for Brazil, which declined by c.5% due to tough macro-economic conditions (further rise in the unemployment rate). The expense management business clocked solid gains, especially in Hispanic Latin America (led by Mexico and Argentina) and to a lesser extent in Brazil. Financial revenue increased by 3.1% on a lfl basis as the 9.9% decline in Europe was more than offset by the 14.8% growth in Latin America. On a reported basis, total revenue (operating plus financial) was up 29.6%, on the back of a positive scope impact (16.6%; related to the consolidation of Embratec in Brazil and UTA in Germany) and FX tailwinds (3.4%, largely due to 28.7% appreciation in the Brazilian real vs the euro). The company stepped up the shift to a digital platform (as part of its turnaround plan named Fast Forward) by acquiring the assets of Moneo Resto in France (a fully digital meal voucher provider with a client base of 65,000 users). Edenred also issued bonds worth €500m (1.875% coupon and a 10-year expiry), reducing the average cost of debt to 2.1% (vs 2.6% in FY16). Management has reaffirmed full-year guidance – lfl growth in operating revenue: >7%, operating EBIT: >9% and FFO: >10%.
Edenred reported 9M FY16 results (ending 30 September) broadly in line with our estimates. The lfl revenue increased by +7% (Q3: +9.1%, Q2: +6.9%, Q1: +5.2%; our estimate: +4.5%), despite clocking a 1.9% decline in financial revenue (13.3% decline in Europe, partially offset by +7.3% growth in Latin America). Total reported revenue came in at €804m (+2.8% vs our estimate of +2.9%), on account of currency headwinds (-8.4% yoy; largely due to the depreciation of the Brazilian real and Mexican peso vs the euro), and partially offset by a 4.2% positive scope impact (primarily related to Embratec’s integration in Brazil). The take-up rate was unchanged yoy at 4.6%. Issue Volume (IV) increased by +8.9% on a lfl basis (Q3: +10.2%, Q2: +9.3%, Q1: +7.4%; our estimate: +7.2%), reflecting strong growth across all major regions. Europe was up 7.7% (Q3: +6.4%, Q2: +9.7%, Q1: +6.9%; accounts for c.48% of the group’s IV), once again driven by Central Europe (+8.5%; reflecting improving economic conditions) and France (+4.6%; due to solid gains in Ticket Restaurant solutions). Despite challenging macro-economic conditions, the LatAm region reported a strong sequential improvement (Q3: +14.3%, Q2: +8.7%, Q1: +7.5%; accounts for c.48% of the group’s IV), propelled by Hispanic LatAm (+18.4% yoy; employee benefit solution growth of 24.3%). Also, Brazil was up 4.5% on the back of strong growth in the expense management business (+15.7% yoy). Management has reiterated its FY16 guidance: IV organic growth of 8-14% (we go for the lower end of the range), EBIT to range €350-370m (vs our estimate of €351m), operating flow-through ratio to remain above 50% and FFO to grow by over 10% organically. Furthermore, a promising three-year plan (called Fast Forward) was announced at the investors’ day. The company aims to accelerate organic revenue and EBIT growth to over 7% and 9%, respectively, by adopting the following measures: 1. Acquire a controlling interest in UTA by exercising the call option to purchase an additional 17% stake (thus bringing the total to 51%). The move will increase the expense management business’s contribution to the group’s IV from 17% to 30% post consolidation. 2. Achieve double-digit organic revenue growth in expense management and mid single-digit in the employee benefits business through various initiatives. 3. Expansion in the corporate payments ecosystem (manage financial transaction flows among various companies across geographies). This encompasses the use of virtual card technology and establishing a private payment network by leveraging its authorisation platform, PrePay Solutions (70% owned JV with Mastercard). 4. Slashing the dividend pay-out ratio to at least 80% (currently >90% of recurring profit after tax) in order to augment the investment in the corporate payments business.
Edenred reported H1 FY16 results broadly in line with our estimates. The lfl revenue increased by +6.1% (Q2 16: +6.9%, Q1 16: +5.2%; our estimate: +4.7%), despite clocking a 1.6% decline in financial revenue (15.4% decline in Europe, partially offset by +9.8% growth in Latin America). However, the reported revenue was down 2.4% (vs our estimate: +3%) to €526m, on account of currency headwinds (-10.8% yoy; largely due to the depreciation of Brazilian real and Mexican peso vs the euro), and partially offset by a +2.3% scope effect. The take-up rate declined to 4.6% during the period (-10bp yoy). Issue Volume (IV) grew by +8.4% on a lfl basis (Q2 16: +9.3%, Q1 16: +7.4%), largely driven by a sequential improvement in the European region (Q2 16: +9.7%, Q1 16: +6.9%, Q4 16: +5.4%; c.50% of total IV). Within the region, “Europe – excluding France” led the momentum (+9.9% yoy; reflecting favourable economic dynamics in Central Europe and a positive calendar effect), followed by an improved performance in France (+5.2%; driven by the Ticket Restaurant business). Despite challenging macro-economic conditions, the LatAm region clocked +8.1% growth (Q2 16: +8.7%, Q1 16: +7.5%; our estimate: +7.5%; accounts for c.45% of total IV), primarily driven by the Hispanic LatAm business (+13.8%; led by +19.1% growth in employee benefit solutions). Also, Brazil was up 4.5% on the back of strong growth in the expense management business (+16.8% yoy). The company issued a €250m Schuldschein loan (fixed + floating rate; average financing cost of 1.2% and maturity of 6.1 years) and signed an agreement in July to extend the €700m undrawn revolving credit facility by two years to July 2021. Management has reconfirmed its FY16 guidance: IV organic growth of 8-14% (lower end of the range), EBIT to range €350-370m (vs our estimate of €351m), operating flow-through ratio to remain above 50% and FFO to grow by over 10% organically.
Edenred reported Q1 16 results below our estimates. The total revenue increased by 5.2% on a lfl basis (vs Q4 15: +5.4% and Q3 15: +4.9%), despite clocking a 3.1% decrease in the financial revenue. However, the reported revenue was down 5.2% (vs Q4 15: -2.5%, Q3 15: -4.3% and our estimate: +2.4%) on account of currency headwinds (-12.3% yoy; mainly due to the Brazilian real and Mexican peso), and partly offset by the scope effect (+1.9%; integration of ProwebCE business in France). The take-up rate declined to 4.6% in the quarter (vs 4.7% in Q1 15). On Issue Volume (IV), Edenred posted growth of 7.4% on a lfl basis (vs Q4 15: +8.4% and Q3 15: +7.0%), on the back of better growth in Europe (Q1: +6.9% vs Q4 15: +5.4% and Q3 15: +4.1%), with France (+4.2% vs Q4 15: 3.9% and Q3 15: +3.3%) leading the momentum, driven by the Ticket Restaurant business. However, the macro-economic challenges continued in the LatAm business (Q1: +7.5% vs Q4 15: +10.9%), largely due to the sequential growth slowdown in Brazil (Q1 16: 5.3% vs Q4 15: +5.4% and Q3 15: +5.7%); on the contrary, the Expense Management continued to post robust growth (+19.2% vs Q4: +18.8%, H1 15: 27.5%). The Embratec JV in Brazil (65%-owned by Edenred and 35%-owned by Embratec’s founding shareholders) is expected to be completed in the first-half of 2016. Management expects the organic IV growth at the lower end of the medium-term target of 8-14% in FY 16.
Edenred reported Q3 15 results in line with our expectations. Total revenue for 9M was up 6.8% on a lfl basis; however, on a reported basis, revenue was up 5.6% to €782m (post negative currency impact of -4.6% and +3.4% scope effect); this compares to our FY 15 estimate of €1,031m. On Issue Volume (IV), Edenred posted a growth of 8.7% in 9M and 7% in Q3 on a lfl basis (vs. our FY15 estimate of 8.1%), helped by better growth in Europe (3.7% in 9M and 4.1% in Q3). While rising unemployment levels in Brazil continued to impact the Employee Benefits business (+5.8% in 9M; +2% in Q3 vs. +8% in H1), overall IV in Brazil witnessed healthy growth of 9.7% in 9M (vs. +11.5% in H1) on the back of new client wins in the Expense Management business (+24.7% in 9M; +20.2% in Q3 vs. +27.5% in H1). On account of the sliding Brazilian real, management cut its operating profit target to €340-355m (vs. earlier guidance of €365-380m); this is in line with our estimate of €340m (as we incorporated currency woes in our 11 September update). Nonetheless, the company reiterated its guidance of 8-14% lfl growth in IV and its dividend policy of distributing >90% of recurring net profit after tax.
A good set of H1 numbers, particularly in the backdrop of a deteriorating economic scenario in Brazil which is a key market for Edenred (i.e. 50% of Issue Volume). - Brazil posted strong IV lfl growth (11.9%), despite some impact from rising unemployment on the Benefits business (IV lfl: 8%), primarily on the back of the robust pick-up in the Expense management business (IV lfl: 27.5%). The company continues to offset the macro blues through its digitalisation growth (now 66% at the group level) and its execution on the ground with a major partnership announced with Daimler. - Overall, IV growth was 9.5% and 9.6% on a lfl basis (vs. 1.5% and 12.3% in H1 14). While penetration growth and new solutions broadly held up (H1 15 vs H1 14: 4.6% vs 5.4% and 2.3% vs 2.5%, respectively), growth from voucher face value increases slumped to 2.5% (H1 14: 4.2%) as guided by the management earlier. Another key positive was EBIT growth of 11.5% to €165m despite a €6m FX impact, with lfl growth of 14.6% vs. 13.2% in H1 14; EBIT for the operating business increased 19.5% vs 17% in H1 14 on a lfl basis. This was primarily on the back of a 130bp improvement in the EBIT margin for LatAm to 43.8% (H1 14: 42.5%). Management confirmed its full-year guidance of 8-14% lfl growth in IV, revenue growth at a difference of 100bp to IV growth and set the EBIT target at €365-380m, incorporating a €23m FX impact given the FX rate of 3.47BRL/USD at the end of H1, i.e. 30 June 2015.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Edenred. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
The final results were in line with expectations and ongoing strong cash generation led to a 32% increase in the full year dividend to 19.0p, 14% ahead of forecast. We retain our FY18 forecasts, other than cash and dividend expectations which are both increased. Net cash is now up to £14.1m and we expect this to drive ongoing strong growth in dividends, with the prospective yield now a healthy 4.4%.
Since April, our growth style screen has performed very strongly, outperforming the main small-cap index by 20pp and 24pp on an unweighted and weighted basis respectively, also comfortably outpacing microcap. In this note we provide more detail on the constituent and basket performance in the period and present the new screen constituents. As usual we focus on 10 of the current constituents, providing brief summaries and financials for clients to consider. We will refresh again in 5-6 months time and report back on performance.
Companies: SUN DOTD ERGO TEF AVG SOG COR FEN LOOP YU/
At our 3D Printing and Advanced Manufacturing lunch on Monday three companies updated us on the developments and significant opportunities for their business in this exciting new area. We were pleased to welcome speakers from Xaar, Victrex and unlisted group Metalysis. Each company gave a 15-20 minute overview of their existing activities in 3D printing and how they are continuing to develop their offer to capitalise on the strong growth and value creation opportunities ahead. Brief summaries are listed below, with more details inside, along with the slides presented by each company. All three of the groups have strong prospects and we are happy to arrange further contact.
Companies: Xaar Victrex
Strong H118 results and positive order book development cause us to raise estimates, especially for the current year with better dividend prospects also. UK economic uncertainty will provide challenges but we believe that Severfield’s sector diversity and some pipeline project opportunities should allow the company to continue to grow. Further order book gains and the application of surplus cash balances (via investment or distribution) can be catalysts for further share price recovery.
The 2H17 progress update reveals increased focus on the AiM partnership (a distributors’ buying group) with a clear path to increased monetisation of the opportunity. The combination of Channl with Altitude’s existing business management tools (to create AiMPro) delivers revenue related to total transaction spend on the platform, a potentially significant improvement compared with the former model, which was wholly reliant on online transactions. We look forward to continuing positive newsflow surrounding AiM and the other potential distribution and supplier partners, in addition to the launch of AndEverything.com – an online market place, claimed to be a world first for promotional products.
Companies: Altitude Group
Topic of the quarter: It’s alive! Infrastructure and assets in general have traditionally been built to provide a fixed service and are maintained and renovated to a fixed schedule – dead and dumb. Technology will completely change this. Sensors and wireless networks have the potential to allow assets to ‘talk’ to us. These living, smart assets will be able to tell us when they need maintenance, how efficient they are being and provide the data that will directly influence their construction, availability and use. The implications for construction costs through to operating costs and the ability to service changing user needs are very significant. The Support Services, Construction and Technology sectors need to work together to maximise this potential, recognise and harness the power of data, and invest in and embrace change. These are daunting challenges in highly competitive markets where politics play a role, different skill sets (that are currently in short supply) are needed and shareholders are looking over management's shoulders. However, the prize for those companies who get it right is significant, and the risk from not changing much greater. There are positive early signs with Crossrail providing tangible examples of Smart Infrastructure using innovative sensors.
Companies: FOUR ACL BOOT CLL CNCT FCRM LOK PPH RNWH STAF UTW WATR VANL WYG
We believe that the share price weakness in recent weeks has brought the shares firmly into buying territory. Currency movements will provide a favourable tailwind with sterling strengthening vs the dollar and remaining relatively subdued vs the euro. Last month’s site visit confirmed that plans are well advanced for Flex to start supplying when the manufacturing and distribution agreements with Newell terminate on 31 March 2018. Investors can currently receive a 5% dividend yield and strong forecast profit growth.
Companies: Sprue Aegis
Since August, Augean has released four updates and in the process lost 28p or 50% in value. Two of the updates related to HMRC landfill tax assessments, one was for the interims and the remainder related to a profit warning and changes on the Board. The first HMRC tax assessment accounted for 86% of the decline with the remaining three having little or no impact. From this it is clear that the share price is being weighed down by the potential tax liability and this, we argue, needs to be addressed before we see any material share price appreciation, regardless of the operational improvements introduced by the new management team.
As anticipated, Severfield has announced a contract award on the new Google Headquarters in King's Cross, London. It will provide 15,900 tonnes of structural steelwork services for the new 11-storey building with the work scheduled to commence on site in June 2018. The Company has previously indicated that the work would be worth around £50m in the order book. Having recently upgraded our forecasts, we do not expect to make any further changes after this morning’s positive announcement. However, this clearly strengthens the order book in an end market (commercial offices) where there has been some uncertainty and also helps to underpin our FY’19 and FY’20 forecasts. The win once again demonstrates Severfield's market leading position with unrivalled design, fabrication and construction capabilities. Trading on an FY’18 P/E multiple of 11.3x and yielding 3.5%, we continue to believe that Severfield is attractively valued vs. peers.
Xaar has reached an agreement to receive an upfront payment instead of future royalties from one of its licensees. Xaar will receive a total payment from Seiko of ¥2.98bn/c.£20m, paid in two tranches. These will both be paid by the end of H1 18, although exact payment dates have yet to be confirmed. We view this upfront payment as a better outcome for Xaar than the royalty stream, which we have always forecast to decline towards zero by the early 2020s (N+1Se £5m in 2018, £4m in 2019). We have not yet amended our forecasts, pending clarity over timing of payments. However clearly we would anticipate an increase in net cash by 2018 and an associated reduction in underlying sales and profits, as the future royalty stream will represent only one remaining licensee (Toshiba TEC).
Highlights this quarter: Economics: Generally, the data points to modest growth continuing, with a more positive trend in PMI surveys suggesting decent m manufacturing momentum over the next six months. Currency weakness continues to be a double-edged sword for U K manufacturers, with exporters gaining competitiveness while input prices have risen. There has recently been a divergence of sterling’s performance against the euro and the USD. Those in commodity or competitive product areas may well have seen margin erosion, while many in intermediary goods have already passed on price increases to their customers. With low unemployment, the prospect of tighter labour markets post-Brexit and public sector pay caps starting to come off also signals the potential for some labour inflation, long absent from the UK industrial scene. Topic of the quarter: We believe that powerful macro and sectoral pressures will drive further significant changes to the manufacturing supply chain over the next few years. We investigate some of these pressures, with the move to outsource suppliers to low- cost centres, like China, now seeing a slight reverse flow with some restoring to shorten complex and often inflexible supply chains. We see systems technology facilitating greater supply-chain control and efficiency. Brexit will present challenges to the UK supply chain with price and time to market barriers likely to rise, presenting challenges to the UK’s highly integrated and time-sensitive supply chain. Slick distribution infrastructure and greater information sharing with suppliers are likely to prove winning strategies in optimising logistics and gaining stock efficiencies. Sector valuation: The industrials sector has continued to exhibit strength, with small-cap industrials outperforming by 2 % on last year and larger cap industrials by 17%. Currency and improving economic data have been a positive for the sector. While some other sectors have seen a pick-up in profit warnings over recent months, industrial technology companies have announced generally positive or in-line trading updates that have helped to drive the small-cap Industrials to an EV EBITDA of 8.4x and a P/E of 16.7x with the traditional small-cap discount narrowing.
Companies: SIXH ACL AXS AMPH ALU AEP AVG CAPD CAR FENR FLO RAD GHH HDD IOF MPE RE/ RNO RBN SOLI SOM SCE TRI VANL VEL ZAM TRT
This quarter we use finnCap’s Slide Rule to provide both top-down and bottom-up analysis of the UK’s Technology and Telecoms sectors. Our findings are very reassuring: the Tech sector scores the best (across all sectors) when considering Growth and Quality – Taptica*, Frontier Developments* and dotDigital* in particular stand out on these metrics. Given these attractive characteristics and growth prospects, the Tech sector is unsurprisingly one of the most expensive – currently trading at 17.2x FY1 EV/EBIT and 23.8x FY1 P/E, versus 15.0x and 18.5x respectively for the wider market. Despite valuations appearing high, we believe there are value opportunities. For example, Proactis* features in finnCap’s QVGM+ portfolio (ranked 17/462) – the company offers attractive organic and inorganic growth, with earnings forecast to grow by 26% CAGR over the next two years, but despite this, only trades on 15x FY1 earnings and offers 8% FCF yield in FY2.
Companies: 7DIG ALT AMO ARTA BOTB BLTG CTP CFHL CYAN ISL DTC DOTD ELCO ESV FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IMTK IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET ONEV PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SSY SEE SIM SPE SRT STR TAP TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP ZOO
Cohort continues to make progress in a tough UK defence trading environment. Our earnings forecasts remain largely unchanged as performances at MASS and EID continue ahead of expectations, compensating for pressures at MCL and SEA. Our fair value calculation currently stands at 483p implying significant unrecognised potential. The recent share price fall seems unwarranted given the maintained outlook.
In the October edition of the Hardman Monthly newsletter, Chief Executive, Keith Hiscock analyses the much misunderstood – but highly important – issue of stock liquidity. In particular, he focuses on the lower echelons of the Main Market and of AIM.
Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GTLY MCL MUR NSF OBT ODX OXB NIPT PHP PURP RE/ RGD SCLP SPH SCE TRX VAL
discoverIE (previously called Acal) reported strong interims, proving that its strategy to grow the design and manufacturing (D&M) side of the business is bearing fruit. Organic revenue growth of 9% drove improved operating margins and EPS, while growth in orders and design wins position discoverIE for sustained growth. Management continues to seek out suitable acquisitions to accelerate growth of D&M – based on a similar profile to previous deals, we estimate that using existing credit facilities to make £50m worth of acquisitions could add 20-25% to FY19e EPS.