Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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25 May 17
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Momentum screen refresh + 9 focus stocks
We have refreshed our momentum screen for a second time, the previous refresh having been in January. As before, the screen selects the 25 stocks exhibiting the strongest momentum, according to our measurement method. From these we selected 9 to focus on. Since the last refresh the screen has significantly outperformed both the main small-cap and micro-cap indices against a background of strong and stable momentum generally. We also present here a wider study of accelerating and decelerating momentum stocks, because of interesting behaviour noticed previously. The interim conclusion is that these two characteristics are a significant differentiator of performance. We show on pages 7 and 8 the current most accelerative and decelerative stocks.
Companies: SDM EYE SOG MAB1 GFIN FARN LRM W7L TET
25 May 17
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 25-05-2017
Clipper Logistics (CLG LN) Earnings enhancing acquisition | Conviviality (CVR LN) Raising a glass to a positive YE update | Halfords Group (HFD LN) Confidence in FX mitigations + staycation benefits | Sigma Capital Group (SGM LN) Successful launch of the UK’s maiden PRS REIT, raising £250m | Small-cap quantitative research Momentum screen refresh + 9 focus stocks
Companies: HFD SGM SDM EYE SOG CLG MAB1 CVR GFIN FARN LRM W7L TET
24 May 17
Small Cap Breakfast
I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 26 May admission. Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission in late May. Tiso Blackstar Group—Schedule 1 update. Media, entertainment and marketing solutions group/ £160m mkt cap. Admission only. Expected late June. Curzon Energy—Report on Proactive Investors of intended LSE float this year with acquisition of coal bed methane assets in Oregon. Looking to raise £3m plus. NLB Group—financial and banking institution based in Slovenia, with a network of 356 branches. Seeking Ljubliana Stock Exchange listing with GDRs on the LSE. Expected mid June. Flying Brands (FBDU.L)—Prospectus approved by FCA. RTO of Stone Checker Software, supplier of technology solutions in the field of kidney stone analysis and prevention. Has raised £550k at 3p. Subject to GM on 15 Jun. AEW UK Long Lease REIT—Intention to Float. Up to £150m raise. Admission early June. UK specialist and alternative property Alfa Financial Software –Intention to float. Mission-critical software platform purpose-built for asset finance enterprises. Vendor sale of 25% plus. FYDec16 rev £73.3m (CAGR of 24% from 2012). Adjusted EBIT £32.8m. Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe ADES International— Provider of offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling and production services in the Middle East and Africa, seeking raise up to $170m plus vendor sale under a Standard Listing of the Main Market. Admission due May 2017. Tufton Oceanic Assets– Extended to 9 May on specialist funds segment of Main Market to enable further due diligence. PRS REIT—Private rental sector REIT raising up to £250m. Admission due 31 May
Companies: PYC CLTV HNL WAND TRAK OBT PSL ARL AGM
25 May 17
Trading remains good in the early part of the year
In its AGM statement released this morning, Headlam confirms that trading in the first four months of the year has started well and is in line with expectations for FY17. This builds on a good performance in FY16, which saw forecasts upgraded twice due to strong trading in the second half of the year. In the UK year to date, both residential and commercial sales were higher, despite challenging comparatives. Solid growth in Europe was driven by residential demand whilst the commercial sector was softer, held back by underperformance in the Swiss business. Headlam continues to act as a consolidator in its highly fragmented industry, announcing the acquisition of Scottish based McMillan Flooring Distributors. Our forecasts remain unchanged today but we are encouraged by the positive start made to FY17 trading. At current levels and following strong share price appreciation since December, Headlam trades on a PER of 15.6x with an attractive 3.7% dividend yield, before considering any further special dividends in FY17.
12 May 17
Results to the left of them, results to the right of them
We continue to see outperformance by the junior market indices. In our view, this is largely due to smaller companies delivering robust trading in updates, although M&A activity is also playing a part. Indeed, the majority of corporate results continue to be in line with expectations. The UK election rumbles on in the background and near term the focus will likely remain on the domestic political landscape. In Share News & Views we have covered Braemar Shipping*, Downing Strategic Micro-Cap Investment Trust*, Invesco Growth Trust* and Warpaint London*.
Companies: BMS CRPR ECSC EUSP FDM PCF PPIX QRT SNX SPRP SQS TCN TRI W7L
25 May 17
We remain confident that the outlook for UK consumer markets supports our top-line assumption of 3% growth in FY17 and Headlam is tracking in line with our earnings forecasts in the year to date. Returns should be supported by the price inflationary environment and a fresh look at efficiencies in the business providing the prospect of firming gross margins. The group is committed to a progressive dividend policy including potential special dividends and the shares are yielding around 5.6% our FY17 dividend forecast inclusive of a forecast further special being declared in respect of FY17. This is a momentum stock with superior yield.
28 Apr 17
N+1 Singer - T3 Trend spotting - Strategy update
In our third edition of Trend spotting we stick with our suggestion at the end of March to up European exposure and we review the recent market moves and macro trends. We comment on the recent strong performance of our growth, quality and momentum styles which we expect to continue and we examine what happened to sectors around the last general election period in 2015, adding some new colour.
Companies: AUG GNS IQE NTG SDL SPH SDY TRI VEC XAR GHT BOY CRW EMIS VCT ECK GLE GHH DATA AVON CHH DPH HILS SDM ZYT MUR RPS LWB EKF SUN UDG SYNT CINE DOTD MPM FUM CLIN RENE ATQT SERV ERGO BCA BUR DRV SCS JUP FDP GBG GTLY HW/ EAH SFR PHD CXENSE KNOS NETD G4M GFIN FUTR ULS RHL RAT FEN LOOP MYSL
27 Mar 17
The Joy of Techs
Enterprise-focused niche applications of tech illustrate how, while trends appear to be fluctuating away from the current poster children of fintech and the Internet of Things, in fact these developments are refining appropriate application of existing technologies.
Companies: 7DIG AMO ARTA BVC BOTB CTP CFHL ISL DTC DOTD ELCO ESV FDSA FDEV GBG IDEA IDOX IMTK IGP IOM KBT KCOM KWS LRM MAI MMX NASA NET ONEV PHD QTX QXT RCN 932 SSY SEE SIM SPE TAX TEP TPOP TRAK UNG VIP ZOO
18 May 17
Small Cap Breakfast
I3 Energy –Schedule 1. Independent oil and gas company with assets and operations in the UK. Offer TBC, 26 May admission. | Opera Investments –Reverse Takeover of Kibo Mining’s subsidiary Kibo Gold. Raising £1.5m. Expected mkt Cap £6.5m. 23 May. | Verditek— Schedule 1 update. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Issue price 10p. Admission in late May. | AEW UK Long Lease REIT—Intention to Float. Up to £150m raise. Admission early June. UK specialist and alternative property | Alfa Financial Software –Intention to float. Mission-critical software platform purpose-built for asset finance enterprises. Vendor sale of 25% plus. FYDec16 rev £73.3m (CAGR of 24% from 2012). Adjusted EBIT £32.8m. | Kuwait Energy— $150m raise plus vendor offer. Admission due June. 2p reserves 810.0 mmboe | ADES International— Provider of offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling and production services in the Middle East and Africa, seeking raise up to $170m plus vendor sale under a Standard Listing of the Main Market. Admission due May 2017. | Tufton Oceanic Assets– Extended to 9 May on specialist funds segment of Main Market to enable further due diligence. |PRS REIT—Private rental sector REIT raising up to £250m. Admission due 31 May
Companies: STL HAL STAF CHH RENE DHG SFE FDBK EKT
19 Dec 16
Small Cap Breakfast
Ultimate Products—The Telegraph reports Jim McCarthy, former chief of Poundland has been appointed Chairman of Ultimate Products ahead of a £100m listing in H1 2017. Ultimate Products owns the Beldray cleaning brand and the licence to sell Russell Hobbs and Salter electrical products in the UK.
Companies: NWF HZM COS BAGR DGB TSTR SLE ATYM MLVN PPIX
28 Apr 17
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 28-04-2017
Bagir Group (BAGR LN) NED appointment and acquisition update | T3 Trend spotting Strategy update
Companies: AUG GNS IQE NTG SDL SPH SDY TRI VEC XAR GHT BOY CRW EMIS VCT ECK GLE GHH DATA AVON CHH DPH HILS SDM ZYT MUR RPS LWB EKF SUN UDG SYNT CINE DOTD MPM BAGR FUM CLIN RENE ATQT MYSL SERV ERGO BCA BUR DRV SCS JUP FDP GBG GTLY HW/ EAH SFR PHD CXENSE KNOS NETD G4M GFIN FUTR ULS RHL RAT FEN LOOP
29 Jul 16
“I don’t hear any music.”
So replied the violinist Fritz Kreisler to the lady who said “your violin makes such beautiful music.” And so we learn that the instrument (ie the hardware) is of no use whatsoever without the human element. This week we saw Sage debut a rack of new products at SageSummit, there was the US$9.3bn Netsuite acquisition by Oracle, which in the wake of ARM plc acquisition pushed share prices up as M&A thoughts drove thinking. We frame all of these moves relative to our SMAC stack scenario. However our Compliance Officer David Langshaw (off to read for an MSc in History of Science, Medicine and Technology at Kellogg College, Oxford - whatever) tells me that I have missed the essential truth – namely Kranzberg’s Six Laws of Technology. Kranzberg’s core message is, ‘Technology merely presents an opportunity: the choice of what to do with it remains ours’ – and so the thing is the intercourse of people with the product. ‘People’ have pushed equity values higher and people will throw up some lucrative opportunities as the economy struggles to generate growth and so looks to technology to be the growth driver. Furthermore the rash of new products show us that technical developments have environmental, social, and human consequences that go far beyond the immediate purposes of the technical devices and practices themselves – note the seemingly sudden burst of interest in IoT and in PokemonGo this month – and this reminds us that “software is eating the world”. As always tech bounces up and down through the Summer months – July was an ‘up’ month. It is still too early to know the operational ramifications of Brexit. But so far the mood music has been more positive than expected, even if I am playing second fiddle to Mr Langshaw. Enjoy the Summer break.
Companies: AVV ESCH CCC FDSA FTC TUNE FXI MCRO NETD OSI SGE SND SDL SPT SOG
21 Jun 16
The return of the goodwill IPO: How to value a brand?
I wake up in my DFS (DFS) bed with a Gin and Fevertree (FEVR) hangover, place a trade on my phone through CMC Markets (CMCX), have a quick go on my Hornby (HRN) train set, eat half a box of Hotel Chocolat (HOTC), all before heading out in my brand spanking new Joules (JOUL) wellies to my local Metro Bank (MTRO) branch. All of these well-known consumer brands share a common theme in that they are all listed or quoted on the London Stock Exchange. It’s been a year so far reminiscent of 2014 when we saw a flurry of large brands rush for the IPO door such as Pets at Home (PETS), Saga (SAGA), AA (AA) and Poundland (PLND). Most looking for a private equity exit. The IPO adventure of these companies tends to be fairly boiler plate: the valuation is a battleground between the exiting private equity house and incoming institutional investors, the book is many times covered and the scale backs are eye watering. But what makes these companies more alluring to investors than a company nobody has ever heard of which in fact may be profitable, dividend paying and ultimately, on a lower valuation?
Companies: CMCX CSP CYBG WJG ACRL ASCL
25 Apr 17
Surprisingly strong Q1 growth at Protective Films
Chargeurs SA has released a very strong set of figures for Q1 17 with lfl sales up 5.6% (excluding Luxury Materials, see table below) and pulled by the +10.2% of Protective Films, the key business of the firm.
Companies: CHARGEURS SA