Blue sky for French Offices
Following Covivio, Gecina, SFL… Icade reported a nice set of FY 19 figures. Positive revaluations slowed in the City of Paris in H2 19 (1.3% vs. 3.1% in H1 19) despite the acceleration in the heart of the City in H2 19. The surprise came from assets outside the Paris Region, showing a 19% lfl increase in H2 19 vs. 1% in H1 19. Following the share price’s rally, we stick to our negative stance.
26 Feb 20
Something like a negative signal in Q3 19?
Icade qualified its leasing activity as “resilient” in 9M 19 vs. “solid” in H1 19, or a change in its wording in our view. In fact, we observed a lfl decrease in rents in Q3 19. This leads us to become more cautious, aside our questions concerning the French Offices end-market around the City of Paris for some months.
18 Oct 19
No increase in guidance
There were some positive revaluations in H1 19 and rents increased slightly at constant perimeter. Both were slightly above the rents indexation, suggesting a very limited yield compression in H1 19, or some negative ones in some asset pockets. We continue to point out the weaker end-market around Paris (excluding the City of Paris) where Icade’s buildings are mainly located.
22 Jul 19
Substantially higher results
In FY17, Icade’s attributable net profit posted an increase of 193.9% yoy, to €170.3m. The portfolio value reached €10.8bn, up by 11.1% yoy, reflecting the positive impacts of acquisitions, development projects and higher occupancy rates. The year was characterised by strong leasing activity which was mainly backed by the acquisition of ANF Immobilier. The figures were above our estimates and translated a positive year for Icade. Thus, we will upgrade our model.
14 Feb 18
Dynamic Q3 17
Icade released its Q3 figures. On 30 September, the company’s revenues stood at €1,152.9m, a 16.1% yoy increase, driven by development revenues (c. 62.3%). Development property generated revenue of €719.2m, up by 28.2% from Q3 16. Management confirmed its 2017 outlook for net current cash flow per share: growth of around 7%.
20 Nov 17
Outlook lifted for FY17
Icade published its H1 17 figures. Net recurrent result at €145.8m is up by 7.1% yoy. EBITDA up by 3.3% yoy, at €251.2m. LTV stood at 39.4%, up by 150bp compared to FY16. The portfolio value at €9.9bn has increased by 1.6% over six months (c. 42% in French offices, 35% in Business parks and 21% in the healthcare segment). The average cost of debt came to 1.68% for the first half of 2017, down by 50bp compared with FY16. Management continues to see a positive FY17.
31 Jul 17
Maintaining positive expectations with the implementation of the new plan
We have updated our model on the positive numbers posted by Icade. Revenues from investment (leasing activity) stood ahead of our expectations, while property development significantly increased its backlog on the back of positive tax incentive schemes, as expected. As a reminder: EPS came out at €4.41, up 8.3% and ahead of our expectations of €4.22. The proposed dividend was was €4.00. The value of the portfolio at €9.7bn, gained +6.2%, was also ahead of our expectations, while the triple net NAV at €78.7, gained +7.6%, also ahead of our expectations and the current trading price. The average debt maturity increased to 6.6 years, and average cost of debt was 2.18% (-53bp). Management continues to see a positive FY17 with the group’s net current cash flow (EPS) expected to grow by at least 4% compared with 2016.
06 Mar 17
Disposal of Services and up to 10% of Business Parks
*Key take aways:* * Driving synergies between Development and Investment activities all over France. Disposal of non-core assets in Business Parks and disposal of the Services division. * Ambitions for 2016-18: Increase group share GAV to €11bn by 2019, increase development sales from €1bn to €1.3bn with a targeted ROE of 12% by 2018. * Dividend, RNR and cash flow guidance is maintained.
30 Nov 15
No clear catalyst going forward
Icade released its H1 results. Revenues stood at €714.4m, -5.7% yoy. The group’s net current cash flow per share stood at €143.8m or €1.95/share. By segment, the property investment division was strong with EPRA earnings of €128.1m, or €1.74/share, up 6% yoy, while Property development showed some weaknesses as expected due to higher comps in 2014. Cost of debt now stands at 2.79% vs 3.07% at FY14 and LTV at 38.8% (from 36.9%) and management guides for a net current cash flow between €4 and €4.10/share for FY15.
24 Jul 15