Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on GECINA SA. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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9M figures: NRI growth supported by stronger financial structure
21 Oct 16
Gecina published its 9m figures. GRI stood at €419.2m, down -1.3% yoy (-0.7% lfl). EBITDA at €345.3m is down 2.6% yoy and net income at €273m, up 2.9% yoy. Cost of debt now stands at 2.2% (1.7% on drawn debt, and management has secured €194m of disposals in Residential assets. The group has revised its EPS guidance for FY16, now targeting 7% growth excluding Gecimed, from 5% previously.
Positive H1 figures and the battle for FDP goes on
22 Jul 16
Gecina published its H1 16 figures with GRI at €298m, up 8.2% yoy, supported by T1&B and PSA, and flat on an lfl basis, with indexation remaining low (+0.3%) and renewals and renegotiations in offices impacting organic growth. Triple net NAV stood at €128.6, gaining 4.8%, and the group share EPS gained 15.4% yoy to €3.16. The group’s pipeline now stands at 30% of the total portfolio (excluding Gecimed) or €3.6bn (o/w 60% controlled), and its financial position is stronger, with cost of debt now at 2% (-90bp) and an LTV excluding Gecimed at 29%. FY 16 guidance of a +5% net income growth is maintained and management now also sees a -70bp decrease in cost of debt, from the recent refinancing activities.
Gecina's public offer on Foncière de Paris means good news
20 May 16
Gecina has just announced a public offer on Foncière de Paris and proposed cash of €150 per FdP share, or an exchange of 6 Gecina shares for 5 shares of FdP. The proposal stands at a 10% premium on the offer previously proposed by Eurosic. As reminder, in March 2016, Eurosic offered €136 per share, for shares of FdP or a premium of 1.5% on the group’s FY15 NAV. An interesting battle, wait and see.
Not that expensive yet
26 Apr 16
We have updated our model on Gecina to capture more aggressive expectations for Paris. Gecina published Q1 16 results with GRI at €147m, up 7.3% yoy and flat lfl as expected. EBITDA stood at €122.6m, up 8.3% and net income at €96.8m gained 16% yoy. The group has confirmed its target of net income growth of above 5% excluding Gecimed.
Solid figures in 2015 but bottom-line dilution from Gecimed ahead
01 Mar 16
*We have updated our model on the group’s positive FY15 figures. We maintain our positive stance on the French office pure play but hold a wait-and-see position on future investments and/or extra dividend payment* *FY 15 figures:* * GRI at €574.6m was up 6% and came in above expectations of €572m. Recurrent net income GS climbed by +12.2%, and EPS at €5.61 gained 8.6% and stood marginally in line with our expected (€5.60) and the revised guidance. The dividend was announced at €5.00 per share, also beating our expectations of €4.98. * 2015 has been a dynamic year for Gecina with a total of €1.9bn of acquisitions and developments and €1.9bn of disposals including the Gecimed portfolio. * The strong growth in triple net NAV (+21.2% to €122.7/share) above both our expectations and consensus was supported by gains on disposals and yield compressions. The portfolio's value gained 24.5% yoy and 10.8% lfl to now stand at €12.9bn (including Gecimed). The office portfolio experienced the strongest growth at +14.4% lfl, with Paris increasing by as much as 19.2% lfl. An impressive growth mainly supported by yield compressions: -80bp to 5.17%. * The financial position also remains strong with net debt increased to €4.7bn, decreasing the average cost of debt to 2.2% from 3%, and the LTV now stands at 36.4%
A good start but still waiting for more
23 Jul 15
Gecina published its H1 15 figures with GRI at €276.2m, down 1.1% lfl, impacted by negative reversions and limited indexation. The NAV stood at €103.9m, 3% below our FY15 expectations and the group share EPS was up 1.1% yoy to €2.74. The pipeline has been increased to 23.3% of the total portfolio, now standing at €2.8bn (from 16.5% at FY14), o/w 6.4% is committed. And management has made an upward revision of its FY15 guidance with net income growth now expected between +6% and +9% and GRI lfl growth maintained at -1% for FY15.
VPC Speciality Lending Investments PLC – sticking to your knitting pays dividends
05 Dec 16
A 25% discount on a dividend paying vehicle suggests either (a) lack of belief in the NAV, (b) lack of belief in the dividend, (c) concerns over future delivery, (d) a shareholder’s base not normally exposure to “closed end structures” or (e) some combination of (a) to (d). We had a first meeting with the management team and London representative of VPC Speciality Lending to try to better understand why the share price had fallen quite so much.
N+1 Singer - Grainger - Final results in line, further progress on PRS investment pipeline
01 Dec 16
Grainger has reported FY16 final results this morning with key NNNAV and recurring PBT metrics in line with our forecasts. Sales performance and rental income growth was strong in H2, as previewed in the positive FY trading update driving our 19% PBT upgrade in early October (11/10). The PRS investment pipeline continues to grow now standing at £389m secured and £347m in legals as Grainger pursues an £850m investment target by 2020. A 3.05p final dividend is in line with the revised policy to distribute 50% net rental income. The shares continue to trade on a significant, and unwarranted, 20%+ discount to NNNAV. We reiterate our BUY recommendation.
Better Capital – A tale of two funds
05 Dec 16
Our gut feel on the results is that BCAP’s Gardner disposal feels viable (albeit as a late Q1 transaction). Post Gardner, the exit profile for BCAP’s portfolio is slanted towards the years 2018/19 and not earlier; we view the market’s current pricing as cautious (14% disc to our estimate of FV). In contrast, BC12’s more consumer facing portfolio remains a work in progress and may well offer further disappointment before turning a corner; the market valuation (51% discount to NAV) is cautious but probably fair given the difficulties.
Meeting near-term headwinds
06 Dec 16
In its trading update IFG reported that performance has been in line with management expectations. The cooling effect of market uncertainty on growth in James Hay and financial advice client numbers, together with the impact of low interest rates, remain a near-term head wind for revenues. Even so, with Saunderson House continuing to increase profits, IFG expects to match 2015 earnings. The long-term growth opportunity presented by an ageing population and pension freedoms remains in place and to address this IFG is continuing investment to enhance its service and increase operational gearing.
Small Cap Breakfast
07 Dec 16
Creo Medical group—Schedule 1 update.. £20m raise. Expected market cap £61.2m, admission expected 9 December. ECSC—Schedule 1 from provider of cyber security services. Raising £5m. Vendor sale £0.8m. Target date 14 Dec. Expected market cap £15m. RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m
05 Dec 16
As we mentioned in our 18 November 2016 note, a continuation vote was expected to be announced before the end of 2016. The announcement last Friday included details of the continuation vote, and in particular, a recommendation by the Directors to replace the June 2015 strategy of selling non-core assets and developing the core projects, with a new strategy of an orderly sale of the Company’s assets, with a target of selling all assets by 31 December 2019 and a distribution policy for returning monies to shareholders following disposals. Alongside these recommendations, there are proposed changes to the remuneration for the investment manager.