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A last quarter in line with expectationsA low level of profitability penalized by the remuneration system of salespeopleTowards a correct fiscal year 2024, but one that was hoped to be betterA valuation far too high considering the profitability profile, but investors still hold hope for better days
Esker Esker SA
Esker reported FY23 revenue growth of 12%, or 14% in constant currency (cc), at the lower end of its guidance range. New contract wins in Q423 were 38% higher cc than in the prior quarter and 58% higher cc y-o-y, reflecting strong demand in France and the rest of Europe. FY23 operating profitability will take a hit as sales commission for better-than-expected new business is recognised in Q423. As FY24 guidance is more conservative than we expected, we have reduced our FY24 forecasts, resulting in a normalised EPS cut of 7.6%. While current economic conditions are weighing on the volume of transactions processed by Esker’s platform, the strength of new contract wins provides good support for medium-term growth.
A more negative exchange rate impact in Q3, organic growth still in double digits but slightly lower than in Q1Commercial dynamics remain strong, allowing the group to confirm its organic growth target……but an operating margin (MEX) that could be lower if salespeople sign numerous contracts in Q4Valuation still not justified, considering the lack of leverage
Esker saw record order intake in Q323, helped by the upcoming (albeit delayed) introduction of e invoicing regulations in France. While Q323 revenue growth of 8% was dampened by lower SaaS transaction growth, volumes have picked up in October and the company maintains its FY23 guidance. The company continues to evolve its product suite, using AI to enhance productivity, and is currently developing a new ESG-focused reporting solution. Through a combination of recent contract wins, cost control measures and improving pricing, operating profitability should improve in FY24, moving towards the company’s 15% target by FY25.
A fall in H1 results in line with our expectationsA revision of our guidance on operating profit, which was to be expectedValuation still far too high in our viewOur Reduce opinion is maintained, as our doubts about operating leverage have not been dispelled.
In H123 Esker reported strong growth in revenue (+16% y-o-y in constant currency (cc)) and bookings (+18% y-o-y cc) but this was outweighed by increases in costs, resulting in an operating margin decline. The company is taking measures to counter this, both in its contract pricing and by slowing the pace of hiring. While FY23 revenue outlook is unchanged, management reduced the mid-point of operating margin guidance by 1% to 12%. We have conservatively reduced our operating profit forecasts, which for FY23 were at the upper end of the new guidance range.
Q2 in line with expectations, with organic growth still in double digitsA predictable upward adjustment of annual targetsThe valuation still seems too high, given the Group's difficulties in significantly and sustainably improving profitability.Reduce opinion confirmed
Esker continued to make good progress in Q223, with constant currency (cc) year-on-year revenue growth of 15% (the same as in Q123). Order intake on an annual recurring revenue (ARR) basis was 14% higher cc for Q223 and 18% higher for H123. The company narrowed its organic cc revenue growth guidance for FY23 to the upper end of the previous range (now 14–15%) and maintained its operating margin expectations. We maintain our revenue and EPS forecasts and raise our dividend forecasts.
While 2022 results showed growth, they were clearly disappointing in H2Growth prospects are good but leverage remains limitedThe valuation still seems too highReduce opinion confirmed
Esker reported 17% y-o-y revenue growth for Q123, with 21% y-o-y growth in SaaS revenue (83% of group revenue) on an organic constant currency (cc) basis. Strong order momentum was maintained in the quarter, providing good support for our growth forecasts. With volumes processed by the Esker platform reverting to normal levels after a brief period of weakness at the end of FY22, the company revised up its FY23 revenue guidance. We maintain our forecasts, which are at the mid-point of the new revenue guidance and continue to be at the lower end of operating margin guidance.
Esker reported FY22 revenue growth of 19% (13% constant currency (cc)), operating profit growth of 29% and normalised diluted EPS growth of 29%. SaaS revenue grew 23% (17% cc) and now makes up 80% of group revenue. Bookings intake increased 19% cc y-o-y on an annual recurring revenue basis, providing support for growth in FY23 and FY24. Management maintained its guidance for FY23; we have trimmed our FY23 forecasts, which sit within the guidance range, and introduce forecasts for FY24. We forecast EPS to decline 1% in FY23 (as the currency benefit and accrual reversal are not expected to repeat) and increase 17% in FY24.
Esker’s Q422 revenue update confirmed that the company hit the mid-point of its revenue guidance for FY22, despite the already flagged slowdown in volumes processed. The company continued to see strong bookings intake, with the annual recurring value (ARR) of contracts for Q422 up 21% y-o-y in constant currency (cc) and up 19% cc for FY22. This provides support for management’s FY23 guidance; our FY23 estimates are within the guidance range and we maintain our forecasts pending FY22 results on 23 March.
Esker’s Q3 revenue update confirmed continued strong underlying and reported revenue growth, and management reiterated its FY22 revenue and margin guidance. The company is making steady progress with its channel partner strategy, and record order intake, particularly in the US and Asia Pacific, provides support for FY23 and beyond.
Esker reported a robust H122 performance, with 19% revenue growth year-on-year, 41% operating profit growth and 19% growth in the annual recurring value of new contracts signed. Reflecting the potential for slowing demand due to current macroeconomic uncertainty, the company slightly reduced its revenue guidance for FY22 but expects to be at the upper end of its operating margin target range. We reduce our cost forecasts for FY22/23 and revenue forecast by 1% in FY23, driving a 16% EPS upgrade in FY22 and a 9% downgrade in FY23.
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