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GAZTRANSPORT ET TECHNIGA SA
GAZTRANSPORT ET TECHNIGA SA
Revenue 2016 guidance cut to c. €240m
22 Jul 16
Q2 revenues were €46m (H1 +11.4% yoy; royalties +15.2% and services -32.2% due to the base effect). GTT received two new orders during the quarter (none in Q1) and the order book now stands at 107 units. The EBIT margin came in at 61.7% and the net margin at 51.8%; both were stable. Guidance has been changed: - Revenue 2016 at c. €240m vs. previous growth of at least 10% (i.e. >€250m); - Net margin 2016 above 50%, confirmed; - Dividend for 2016 and 2017 at least at the level of 2015 (€2.66 per share), confirmed.
Guidance 2016 confirmed, no new orders during Q1 16
13 Apr 16
Q1 revenues were €59m (+7.1% yoy), of which €55m from royalties (+9.4% yoy) and €3m from services (-22% yoy, as the contribution in Q1 15 was particularly high). The company didn’t receive any new orders during the quarter. Guidance is confirmed: - revenue 2016 growth of at least 10% (i.e. >€250m); - net margin above 50%; - dividend for 2016 and 2017 at least at the level proposed for 2015 (€2.66 per share).
Initiating coverage of GTT.
22 Feb 16
GTT (market cap: €951m) is the global leader in the field of LNG containment systems. GTT derives around >90% of its revenues from royalty fees paid by clients using its technology in LNG projects, mainly carriers (LNGC and VLEC), accounting for c. 80% of the company’s revenues. We initiate coverage with an ADD recommendation and 12% upside. GTT’s business model, based on intellectual property, underlies a virtually infinite ROCE and 52% net margin in 2015. While the return and margins are a result of entry barriers and pricing moat, the main concern relates to the LNG fleet investment cycle, as the order book may have peaked. GTT is likely to go through to a down-cycle which would see a contraction in order intake over the next three years. At a low, the company could become an LBO target for a buyer attracted by an option on the LNG capacity cycle, which itself is linked to LNG prices.
07 Dec 16
Severfield’s (SFR’s) H117 results were well ahead of the previous year; margin performance and order book development cause us to raise our FY17 profit expectations. This combination has also proved to be a catalyst for share price outperformance following the results. Revenue growth and further margin development towards management’s stated aim of doubling FY16 PBT by 2020 can sustain further progress.
Focused on the long term
08 Dec 16
These are rare events but it is nice to see a management use its public listing advantageously to trade short-term dilution in EPS for the optionality of asymmetric upside in the long term. With over £10m already in the balance sheet, ABD has successfully raised £5.4m gross in a placing and expects to raise another £1m from an offer. We were not surprised to learn that the placing was over 3.5x oversubscribed. How many listed UK companies are positioned to take advantage of the digital revolution in the automotive industry? The additional investment in new people, facilities, products & services should be dilutive to FY2017-18 EPS but this is small price to pay to establish the leading supplier of integrated test, measurement and simulation solutions to the autonomous vehicle industry. Our forecasts assume that growth will accelerate from FY2019. We raise our target price to 575p based on 15x FY2019 EPS, equivalent to Ricardo, the only other UK stock which has embraced the optionalities offered by the technological changes in the automotive industry.
Exceptional trading continues
08 Nov 16
Keywords has announced that the strong trading in localisation and audio services has continued into H216. In particular, the Synthesis business acquired in April continues to benefit from exceptionally strong trading. Full-year results are now expected to be materially ahead of consensus and we upgrade our FY16e EPS by 13%. Erring on the side of caution, we have not changed our FY17 estimates significantly. Nevertheless, we believe the company does have a platform to sustain double-digit earnings growth, and hence medium-/long-term prospects for further share appreciation remain good.
08 Dec 16
Elderstreet stake acquired 02 GENERAL NEWS Globalworth premium In this issue Venture capital firm Draper Esprit has taken a 30.8% stake in venture capital trust manager Elderstreet. Both investment managers focus on the technology sector and they will be able to co-invest. Elderstreet has investments in a number of AIM-quoted companies through its VCTs. The purchase was funded by an issue of Draper Esprit shares worth just over £250,000. Simon Cook, the chief executive of Draper Esprit, is a former partner at Elderstreet so he knows the business and the people who run it, although he did leave more than 14 years ago. Cook has previously acquired portfolios from 3i and Cazenove, two other firms where he has worked. Draper Esprit has an option to acquire the remaining shares in Elderstreet, which has more than £25m under management. Adding Elderstreet to the group enables Draper Esprit to offer investors a range of EIS funds, VCTs and an ISA qualifying listed evergreen patient capital fund. The enlarged group has venture capital assets under management of more than £350m. At the end of September 2016, Draper Esprit had a net asset value of 352p a share, which is similar to the current share price. The June 2016 flotation price was 300p a share. Draper Esprit is quoted on Ireland’s Enterprise Securities Market as well as AIM.
02 Dec 16
On 30 September 2016, when the company announced its full year results, it reported that the UK business had seen a slow start to the year, with particular weakness in repair and renewal spending by the NHS as well as “reticence” in the education sector. However, with the UK only representing about a third of the business, this weakness was expected to be more than offset by the positive effect of a weakened sterling on its overseas business, given the benefits for competitiveness and margins.