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Revenue 2016 guidance cut to c. €240m
22 Jul 16
Q2 revenues were €46m (H1 +11.4% yoy; royalties +15.2% and services -32.2% due to the base effect). GTT received two new orders during the quarter (none in Q1) and the order book now stands at 107 units. The EBIT margin came in at 61.7% and the net margin at 51.8%; both were stable. Guidance has been changed: - Revenue 2016 at c. €240m vs. previous growth of at least 10% (i.e. >€250m); - Net margin 2016 above 50%, confirmed; - Dividend for 2016 and 2017 at least at the level of 2015 (€2.66 per share), confirmed.
Guidance 2016 confirmed, no new orders during Q1 16
13 Apr 16
Q1 revenues were €59m (+7.1% yoy), of which €55m from royalties (+9.4% yoy) and €3m from services (-22% yoy, as the contribution in Q1 15 was particularly high). The company didn’t receive any new orders during the quarter. Guidance is confirmed: - revenue 2016 growth of at least 10% (i.e. >€250m); - net margin above 50%; - dividend for 2016 and 2017 at least at the level proposed for 2015 (€2.66 per share).
Initiating coverage of GTT.
22 Feb 16
GTT (market cap: €951m) is the global leader in the field of LNG containment systems. GTT derives around >90% of its revenues from royalty fees paid by clients using its technology in LNG projects, mainly carriers (LNGC and VLEC), accounting for c. 80% of the company’s revenues. We initiate coverage with an ADD recommendation and 12% upside. GTT’s business model, based on intellectual property, underlies a virtually infinite ROCE and 52% net margin in 2015. While the return and margins are a result of entry barriers and pricing moat, the main concern relates to the LNG fleet investment cycle, as the order book may have peaked. GTT is likely to go through to a down-cycle which would see a contraction in order intake over the next three years. At a low, the company could become an LBO target for a buyer attracted by an option on the LNG capacity cycle, which itself is linked to LNG prices.
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Fighting the waves
25 Oct 16
Management action in response to a tough trading climate and falling profits should contribute to a sound recovery in profits next year. Following share price weakness, the group is valued at a substantial discount to both the broking market leader Clarkson and to other peers. Meanwhile, if the dividend can be held, the shares offer a well above-average yield, pending an eventual improvement in trading conditions.
21 Oct 16
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FY17 expectations unchanged. Interim dividend maintained
25 Oct 16
Interims reflect tough markets which impacted Technical. Shipbroking delivered a resilient result and Logistics has performed well. The interim dividend has been held at 9.0p. The group anticipate an improvement in H2. The Board’s expectations for the year are unchanged based upon the strength of the order book due in H2, its ongoing market coverage and the benefits of action taken previously. We have retained our FY2017 PBT forecast of £8.7m and a maintained dividend. We reiterate our Buy and adjust our TP to 450p.
Doing things differently
25 Oct 16
Growing pains have impacted on its operational performance (EBIT margins 5.8% FY15 vs 12.2% FY13) and the HSS Hire valuation is at distressed levels (price to book 0.4x vs 1.3x at the time of the float). As the top-line catches up with the expanded cost base and the roll-out of the NDEC leads to greater efficiencies, margins and returns will rebound. Historical experience has shown that price to book ratios typically match these improvements (see Ashtead FY08-FY15, price to book expanded +196%). Therefore, we see scope for material upside in the share price as the expected operational recovery to progress. Our 12 month target of 115p equates to a 0.8x price to net operating assets
Risks discounted leaving significant upside
18 Oct 16
FY 2016 sales grew strongly at +22% but EPS growth lagged at +3% (our revised forecast -1%) as staff attrition and significant investment in new services held back profitability. Conversion of profit into cash improved significantly, at 240% in H2, as shorter payment terms and a lower level of extensions also benefited. We make no major changes to our forecasts and reiterate our view that Utilitywise is at the forefront of a changing energy market, supported by investment in innovative technology. The current valuation is entirely focused on the short-term challenges and ignores the growth potential supported by the new services.