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October traffic figures
14 Nov 16
Paris Aéroport released its October traffic figures. In October, total traffic was up 0.6%. 5.8m pax travelled through Paris-Charles de Gaulle (-1.2%) and 2.8m through Paris-Orly (+4.6%). International traffic (excluding Europe) was slightly down (-0.9%), due to a decrease in Asia-Pacific (-7.9%), North America (-2.6%) and Latin America (-1.0%). At the opposite, the following destinations were up: the French Overseas Territories (+3.8%), Africa (+3.0%) and the Middle East (+0.5%). European traffic was up 2.1% excluding France while traffic in France was up 0.2%. Since the beginning of the year, traffic grew 0.9%. Traffic at TAV airports was down 0.1% versus +2% ytd.
9-month results in line
08 Nov 16
Paris Aéroport released its 9-month results. Results Consolidate revenue came in at €2,183m, down 0.5%, in line with the first half of the year. Aviation activities were stable, at €1,315m. Retail and Services revenue was also flat, at €680m. Additionally, Real Estate was up 0.4%, International and Airport Developments were down 4.8% (ADP Management +26.7%, ADP Ingénierie -12%) and other activities were up 3.9%. Traffic During the nine months, total traffic grew 1.5%. Traffic at Paris grew by 0.9%, with a total of 73.8m passengers, comprising 50.1m passengers at CDG (-0.7%) and 23.7m at Orly (+4.4%), mainly supported by traffic increases on routes between Paris and Latin America (+1.9%), the Middle East (+2.1%), Europe (+2.4%) and French overseas territories (+5.1%), while traffic from Asia-Pacific was down 8.6%. Traffic at Santiago de Chile was up 11.2%, and at the Istanbul Atatürk airport down 1.3%. The number of connecting passengers was up 1.3% and the connecting rate increased by 0.1 points, to 23.7%. Aircraft movements (536,000) were up by 1.0%. Freight and postal activity increased by 1.6%.
September traffic figures and downward revision of 2016 EBITDA guidance
10 Oct 16
Paris Aéroport released its traffic figures for the month of September and revised downward its EBITDA guidance. Traffic figures During the month of September, traffic was down 0.2% yoy, with 8.6m pax, including 5.8m at Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport (-1.9%) and 2.8m at Paris-Orly (+3.6). Traffic outside Europe is down 0.6%, due mostly to lower traffic between France and Asia-Pacific (-7.7%) as well as between France and North America (-2%) whereas European traffic (excluding France) is up 0.5% and national traffic down 1.1%. Traffic at Santiago de Chile (45% stake) was strongly up since September (+10.5%) and since the beginning of the year (+11.2%). Finally, traffic at TAV (38% stake) is up 3.2% in September and 2.3% since the beginning of the year. Lowering 2016 forecasts Given the lower level of traffic at Paris and TAV airports, the group announced a downward revision of traffic and EBITDA for the full year. It now sees a traffic increase ranging between 1% and 1.5% (versus 2.3%) and a flat EBITDA (versus a ‘slight increase’). The company confirmed its payout guidance of 60%.
August traffic 2016 down but no worse than in preceding months
14 Sep 16
French airport traffic -1.6% (+1% since the beginning of the year) In August 2016, ADP saw 9.5m passengers, down by 1.6% compared to June 2015, of which: - 6.5m (-2.4%) passengers through Paris-Charles de Gaulle (+1.2% since 01/01/2016); - 3m (+0.3%) through Paris-Orly (+4.2% since 01/01/2016). Traffic within France was down (-2.5%), European traffic (excluding France; 47% of total traffic) was up (-0.3%), but other International traffic excluding Europe (39% of total traffic) was down by 2.5%, with: French Overseas Territories +3.5% North America -1.8% The Middle East -5.5% Latin America -2.3% Africa -2.6% Asia-Pacific (-11.6%), mainly due to a decrease to Japanese and Malaysian destinations, partially offset by the growth in traffic to China. The number of connecting passengers decreased by 0.6%. The connecting rate decreased by 0.1pt. Passenger traffic at TAV Airports (38%-owned by ADP) was +1.9% in August, reaching +2.2% since the beginning of the year mainly due to the Turkish airport but also the Tunisian airport (-63% yoy). Santiago’s (45% ADP-owned) passenger traffic was up 8.9% (+10.9% since the beginning of the year).
H1 16 released: tough times for ADP and TAV
29 Jul 16
As expected the results translate the new and challenging environment emerging from terrorism in several countries, including France, and lower growth in emerging countries. FY16 net profit guidance is revised downward. H1 16 results Revenue €1,416m; -€8m; -0.5% EBITDA €523m; +2.7%; +€14m EBIT €270m; -€43m mainly due to the decrease in the share of profit of associates of operating activities after adjustments due to participations (-€17m vs +€33m in 2015) Net profit €127m; -€40m FY 16 guidance - Traffic growth assumption in Paris Aeroport of 2.3% - Slight growth in EBITDA - Net result attributable to the group: a slight decrease in the net result attributable (vs +10% previously lfl) with slight organic growth.
June traffic 2016: no international traffic recovery
13 Jul 16
French airport traffic -1.7% with only European traffic (excluding France) up (+2.3%). In June 2016, ADP saw 8.5m passengers, down by 1.7% compared to June 2015, of which: - 5.7m (-3.9%) passengers through Paris-Charles de Gaulle (+1.5% since 01/01/2016); - 2.7m (+3.2%) through Paris-Orly (+4.9% since 01/01/2016). Traffic within France was down (-1.5%), European traffic (excluding France; 47% of total traffic) was up (+2.3%), but other International traffic excluding Europe (39% of total traffic) was down by 6.7%, with: French Overseas Territories +6.6% North America -4.4% The Middle East -4.2% Latin America -1.9% Africa -2.6% Asia-Pacific (-11.6%), mainly due to a decrease to Japanese and Malaysian destinations, partially offset by the growth in traffic to China. The number of connecting passengers decreased by 2.8%. The connecting rate decreased by 0.3pt. Passenger traffic at TAV Airports (38%-owned by ADP) was +1.1% in June, reaching +4.6% since the beginning of the year mainly due to the Turkish airport but also the Tunisian airport (-63% yoy). Santiago’s (45% ADP-owned) passenger traffic was up 8.3% (+5.4% since the beginning of the year).
Exceptional trading continues
08 Nov 16
Keywords has announced that the strong trading in localisation and audio services has continued into H216. In particular, the Synthesis business acquired in April continues to benefit from exceptionally strong trading. Full-year results are now expected to be materially ahead of consensus and we upgrade our FY16e EPS by 13%. Erring on the side of caution, we have not changed our FY17 estimates significantly. Nevertheless, we believe the company does have a platform to sustain double-digit earnings growth, and hence medium-/long-term prospects for further share appreciation remain good.
08 Dec 16
Elderstreet stake acquired 02 GENERAL NEWS Globalworth premium In this issue Venture capital firm Draper Esprit has taken a 30.8% stake in venture capital trust manager Elderstreet. Both investment managers focus on the technology sector and they will be able to co-invest. Elderstreet has investments in a number of AIM-quoted companies through its VCTs. The purchase was funded by an issue of Draper Esprit shares worth just over £250,000. Simon Cook, the chief executive of Draper Esprit, is a former partner at Elderstreet so he knows the business and the people who run it, although he did leave more than 14 years ago. Cook has previously acquired portfolios from 3i and Cazenove, two other firms where he has worked. Draper Esprit has an option to acquire the remaining shares in Elderstreet, which has more than £25m under management. Adding Elderstreet to the group enables Draper Esprit to offer investors a range of EIS funds, VCTs and an ISA qualifying listed evergreen patient capital fund. The enlarged group has venture capital assets under management of more than £350m. At the end of September 2016, Draper Esprit had a net asset value of 352p a share, which is similar to the current share price. The June 2016 flotation price was 300p a share. Draper Esprit is quoted on Ireland’s Enterprise Securities Market as well as AIM.
Focused on the long term
08 Dec 16
These are rare events but it is nice to see a management use its public listing advantageously to trade short-term dilution in EPS for the optionality of asymmetric upside in the long term. With over £10m already in the balance sheet, ABD has successfully raised £5.4m gross in a placing and expects to raise another £1m from an offer. We were not surprised to learn that the placing was over 3.5x oversubscribed. How many listed UK companies are positioned to take advantage of the digital revolution in the automotive industry? The additional investment in new people, facilities, products & services should be dilutive to FY2017-18 EPS but this is small price to pay to establish the leading supplier of integrated test, measurement and simulation solutions to the autonomous vehicle industry. Our forecasts assume that growth will accelerate from FY2019. We raise our target price to 575p based on 15x FY2019 EPS, equivalent to Ricardo, the only other UK stock which has embraced the optionalities offered by the technological changes in the automotive industry.
07 Dec 16
Severfield’s (SFR’s) H117 results were well ahead of the previous year; margin performance and order book development cause us to raise our FY17 profit expectations. This combination has also proved to be a catalyst for share price outperformance following the results. Revenue growth and further margin development towards management’s stated aim of doubling FY16 PBT by 2020 can sustain further progress.
N+1 Singer - Waterman Group - Encouraging AGM statement in line with expectations
09 Dec 16
This morning’s AGM Statement confirms that trading in the first four months of the year to 31st October was in line with expectations. Revenue was slightly above the prior year period and cash collection has remained strong. The Group has reiterated its commitment to maintaining a progressive dividend policy. The statement is encouraging and we therefore leave our forecasts unchanged. We note the attractions of a 5% dividend yield and consider the shares inexpensive at 4.5x FY’17 EV/EBITDA.