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September traffic figures and downward revision of 2016 EBITDA guidance
10 Oct 16
Paris Aéroport released its traffic figures for the month of September and revised downward its EBITDA guidance. Traffic figures During the month of September, traffic was down 0.2% yoy, with 8.6m pax, including 5.8m at Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport (-1.9%) and 2.8m at Paris-Orly (+3.6). Traffic outside Europe is down 0.6%, due mostly to lower traffic between France and Asia-Pacific (-7.7%) as well as between France and North America (-2%) whereas European traffic (excluding France) is up 0.5% and national traffic down 1.1%. Traffic at Santiago de Chile (45% stake) was strongly up since September (+10.5%) and since the beginning of the year (+11.2%). Finally, traffic at TAV (38% stake) is up 3.2% in September and 2.3% since the beginning of the year. Lowering 2016 forecasts Given the lower level of traffic at Paris and TAV airports, the group announced a downward revision of traffic and EBITDA for the full year. It now sees a traffic increase ranging between 1% and 1.5% (versus 2.3%) and a flat EBITDA (versus a ‘slight increase’). The company confirmed its payout guidance of 60%.
August traffic 2016 down but no worse than in preceding months
14 Sep 16
French airport traffic -1.6% (+1% since the beginning of the year) In August 2016, ADP saw 9.5m passengers, down by 1.6% compared to June 2015, of which: - 6.5m (-2.4%) passengers through Paris-Charles de Gaulle (+1.2% since 01/01/2016); - 3m (+0.3%) through Paris-Orly (+4.2% since 01/01/2016). Traffic within France was down (-2.5%), European traffic (excluding France; 47% of total traffic) was up (-0.3%), but other International traffic excluding Europe (39% of total traffic) was down by 2.5%, with: French Overseas Territories +3.5% North America -1.8% The Middle East -5.5% Latin America -2.3% Africa -2.6% Asia-Pacific (-11.6%), mainly due to a decrease to Japanese and Malaysian destinations, partially offset by the growth in traffic to China. The number of connecting passengers decreased by 0.6%. The connecting rate decreased by 0.1pt. Passenger traffic at TAV Airports (38%-owned by ADP) was +1.9% in August, reaching +2.2% since the beginning of the year mainly due to the Turkish airport but also the Tunisian airport (-63% yoy). Santiago’s (45% ADP-owned) passenger traffic was up 8.9% (+10.9% since the beginning of the year).
H1 16 released: tough times for ADP and TAV
29 Jul 16
As expected the results translate the new and challenging environment emerging from terrorism in several countries, including France, and lower growth in emerging countries. FY16 net profit guidance is revised downward. H1 16 results Revenue €1,416m; -€8m; -0.5% EBITDA €523m; +2.7%; +€14m EBIT €270m; -€43m mainly due to the decrease in the share of profit of associates of operating activities after adjustments due to participations (-€17m vs +€33m in 2015) Net profit €127m; -€40m FY 16 guidance - Traffic growth assumption in Paris Aeroport of 2.3% - Slight growth in EBITDA - Net result attributable to the group: a slight decrease in the net result attributable (vs +10% previously lfl) with slight organic growth.
June traffic 2016: no international traffic recovery
13 Jul 16
French airport traffic -1.7% with only European traffic (excluding France) up (+2.3%). In June 2016, ADP saw 8.5m passengers, down by 1.7% compared to June 2015, of which: - 5.7m (-3.9%) passengers through Paris-Charles de Gaulle (+1.5% since 01/01/2016); - 2.7m (+3.2%) through Paris-Orly (+4.9% since 01/01/2016). Traffic within France was down (-1.5%), European traffic (excluding France; 47% of total traffic) was up (+2.3%), but other International traffic excluding Europe (39% of total traffic) was down by 6.7%, with: French Overseas Territories +6.6% North America -4.4% The Middle East -4.2% Latin America -1.9% Africa -2.6% Asia-Pacific (-11.6%), mainly due to a decrease to Japanese and Malaysian destinations, partially offset by the growth in traffic to China. The number of connecting passengers decreased by 2.8%. The connecting rate decreased by 0.3pt. Passenger traffic at TAV Airports (38%-owned by ADP) was +1.1% in June, reaching +4.6% since the beginning of the year mainly due to the Turkish airport but also the Tunisian airport (-63% yoy). Santiago’s (45% ADP-owned) passenger traffic was up 8.3% (+5.4% since the beginning of the year).
May traffic 2016: mitigating news
14 Jun 16
French airports: only traffic within France and European traffic (excluding France) are up. In May 2016, ADP saw 8.6m passengers, up by 1.4% compared to May 2015, of which: - 5.8m (-1.1%) passengers through Paris-Charles de Gaulle; - 2.8m (+6.9%) through Paris-Orly. However, traffic in May 2015 benefited from a positive calendar effect thanks to 4 three-day weekends, compared to only two last year. Traffic within France was up (+2.9%), European traffic (excluding France) was up (+3.4%), but other International traffic excluding Europe (40% of total traffic) was up by 1.4%, with: French Overseas Territories +0.4% North America -0.5% The Middle East +7% Latin America -1.1% Africa -2.6% Asia-Pacific (-10%), mainly due to a decrease to the Japanese and Malaysian destinations, partially offset by the growth in traffic to China. The number of connecting passengers increased by 5.9%. The connecting rate stood at 22.8%, up by 0.8 points compared to May 2015. Passenger traffic at TAV Airports (38%-owned by ADP) slowed to +0.8% in May 2016 (-1.3% lfl) to reach +4.2% (+3.6% lfl) since the beginning of the year mainly due to the Turkish airport but also the Tunisian airport (-63% yoy). Santiago’s (45% ADP-owned) passenger traffic was up 10.0% (+10.1% since the beginning of the year).
Q1 16 impacted by terrorist attacks, better H2 expected
02 May 16
ADP released its Q1 results. Revenues rose to €683m from a restated €671m a year earlier. - Aviation was up 0.3% - Retail & Services up 1.9% - Real Estate up 4.6%. - Subsidiaries and associates performed well, with International and Airport Developments (ADP Ingénierie and ADP management) up 23.4% (€22m) and Other activities (Hub One and Hub Safe) up 7%. Q1 traffic increased 3.7% to 32.4m passengers despite low traffic coming from Asia Pacific (mostly due to the Paris terrorist attacks, last November). ADP benefited from strong traffic with both North America and the Middle East. The company said that terrorist attacks and a stronger euro impacted revenue from airside stores in the quarter and forecasts recovery in the commercial business in H2. The company also announced that it won’t bid for the 60% stake in French airport ‘Aéroport de Nice’, currently owned by the French government.
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Fighting the waves
25 Oct 16
Management action in response to a tough trading climate and falling profits should contribute to a sound recovery in profits next year. Following share price weakness, the group is valued at a substantial discount to both the broking market leader Clarkson and to other peers. Meanwhile, if the dividend can be held, the shares offer a well above-average yield, pending an eventual improvement in trading conditions.
21 Oct 16
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N+1 Singer - Morning Song 21-10-2016
21 Oct 16
Xaar has announced that its FD, Alex Bevis, will be leaving to pursue other opportunities after almost 6 years with the group. A search is underway for his replacement and Alex will remain with Xaar until 24th March 2017. While Alex’s departure is disappointing, Xaar’s strategy remains on track, with new product launches expected to drive near term organic sales growth and a target of £220m sales by 2020. This reflects stronger leverage of Xaar’s innovative technology into a broader spread of end products and markets, with the £220m expected to be composed of broadly equal contributions from ceramics, packaging & product printing, Thin film/P4, and partnerships/M&A. Prospects for the group are exciting, with positive news flow on product launches and end markets anticipated over the year ahead.
FY17 expectations unchanged. Interim dividend maintained
25 Oct 16
Interims reflect tough markets which impacted Technical. Shipbroking delivered a resilient result and Logistics has performed well. The interim dividend has been held at 9.0p. The group anticipate an improvement in H2. The Board’s expectations for the year are unchanged based upon the strength of the order book due in H2, its ongoing market coverage and the benefits of action taken previously. We have retained our FY2017 PBT forecast of £8.7m and a maintained dividend. We reiterate our Buy and adjust our TP to 450p.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 20-10-2016
20 Oct 16
A highly disappointing update from Senior reports a number of issues adding up to the Group being behind expectations. Following the Flexonics issues over the past 12 months, there are now issues on the Aerospace side which are affecting the outlook. In a period when some stability was required, this is disappointing. We have downgraded FY16 EPS by 6.8% and, whilst we see Senior remaining a US takeover target, we move from Buy to Hold (target price down from 262p to 196p) until more clarity is available on the direction of the Group.