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FY 2016 and December traffic figures
13 Jan 17
Paris Aéroport released its FY 2016 and December traffic figures. Full-year traffic Paris Aéroport handled a total of 97.2mpax, up 1.8% yoy. Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport welcomed 65.9mpax (+0.3%) and Paris-Orly Airport 31.3m (+5.3%). Traffic increased by 1.5% over the first half of the year and increased by 2.1% over the second half. Excluding Europe, international traffic was up 0.4% translating growth from French overseas territories (+4.8%), the Middle East (+3.6%), LatAm (+2%) and Africa (+1.9%), partly offset by declining traffic from Asia (-6.7%), particularly from Japan and Malaysia, while North America was broadly flat at +0.1%. Traffic in France was up 1.1% while other European destinations were up 3.4%. Lastly, traffic at TAV Airports (38% owned) was up 0.5% on a like-for-like basis, to 104.4mpax and traffic at Santiago (45% owned) rose 11.3%, at 19.2mpax. December traffic In December, Paris Aéroport handled a total of 7.7mpax, up 8.8% yoy. Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport welcomed 5.2mpax (+7.5%) and Paris-Orly Airport 2.5m (+11.5%). Excluding Europe, international traffic was up 7.7% mostly translating a strong growth from the Middle East (+14.6%), Africa (+7.1) and LatAm (+6.6%), while North America was up 4.8% and French overseas territories up 3.2%. Traffic in France was up 5.6%, while other European destinations were up 11.4%. Lastly, traffic at TAV Airports was up 2.3% and Santiago up 15.1%.
November traffic boosted by easy comps
13 Dec 16
Paris Aéroport released its November traffic figures. Paris airports welcomed 7.1 million passengers (mpax), up 6.2% yoy. 4.8mpax travelled through Paris-Charles de Gaulle (+4.5%) and 2.3mpax through Paris-Orly (+10.0%). European traffic (excluding France) was up 8% while traffic within France increased by 7.9%. International traffic (excluding Europe) was up +3.6% mostly due to growth in the Middle East (+11.4%), Africa (+5.4%) and the French Overseas Territories (+4.4%). North America was broadly flat at -0.1% while Asia was up 1%. Since the beginning of the year, traffic has grown by 1.3% to 89.5mpax while total traffic (including TAV) rose 2%, to 96.6mpax. As regards equity associates, traffic at TAV was up 1.6% in November, and 2.0% ytd while Santiago airport traffic increased by 9.6% in November 2016, and by 11% ytd.
October traffic figures
14 Nov 16
Paris Aéroport released its October traffic figures. In October, total traffic was up 0.6%. 5.8m pax travelled through Paris-Charles de Gaulle (-1.2%) and 2.8m through Paris-Orly (+4.6%). International traffic (excluding Europe) was slightly down (-0.9%), due to a decrease in Asia-Pacific (-7.9%), North America (-2.6%) and Latin America (-1.0%). At the opposite, the following destinations were up: the French Overseas Territories (+3.8%), Africa (+3.0%) and the Middle East (+0.5%). European traffic was up 2.1% excluding France while traffic in France was up 0.2%. Since the beginning of the year, traffic grew 0.9%. Traffic at TAV airports was down 0.1% versus +2% ytd.
9-month results in line
08 Nov 16
Paris Aéroport released its 9-month results. Results Consolidate revenue came in at €2,183m, down 0.5%, in line with the first half of the year. Aviation activities were stable, at €1,315m. Retail and Services revenue was also flat, at €680m. Additionally, Real Estate was up 0.4%, International and Airport Developments were down 4.8% (ADP Management +26.7%, ADP Ingénierie -12%) and other activities were up 3.9%. Traffic During the nine months, total traffic grew 1.5%. Traffic at Paris grew by 0.9%, with a total of 73.8m passengers, comprising 50.1m passengers at CDG (-0.7%) and 23.7m at Orly (+4.4%), mainly supported by traffic increases on routes between Paris and Latin America (+1.9%), the Middle East (+2.1%), Europe (+2.4%) and French overseas territories (+5.1%), while traffic from Asia-Pacific was down 8.6%. Traffic at Santiago de Chile was up 11.2%, and at the Istanbul Atatürk airport down 1.3%. The number of connecting passengers was up 1.3% and the connecting rate increased by 0.1 points, to 23.7%. Aircraft movements (536,000) were up by 1.0%. Freight and postal activity increased by 1.6%.
September traffic figures and downward revision of 2016 EBITDA guidance
10 Oct 16
Paris Aéroport released its traffic figures for the month of September and revised downward its EBITDA guidance. Traffic figures During the month of September, traffic was down 0.2% yoy, with 8.6m pax, including 5.8m at Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport (-1.9%) and 2.8m at Paris-Orly (+3.6). Traffic outside Europe is down 0.6%, due mostly to lower traffic between France and Asia-Pacific (-7.7%) as well as between France and North America (-2%) whereas European traffic (excluding France) is up 0.5% and national traffic down 1.1%. Traffic at Santiago de Chile (45% stake) was strongly up since September (+10.5%) and since the beginning of the year (+11.2%). Finally, traffic at TAV (38% stake) is up 3.2% in September and 2.3% since the beginning of the year. Lowering 2016 forecasts Given the lower level of traffic at Paris and TAV airports, the group announced a downward revision of traffic and EBITDA for the full year. It now sees a traffic increase ranging between 1% and 1.5% (versus 2.3%) and a flat EBITDA (versus a ‘slight increase’). The company confirmed its payout guidance of 60%.
August traffic 2016 down but no worse than in preceding months
14 Sep 16
French airport traffic -1.6% (+1% since the beginning of the year) In August 2016, ADP saw 9.5m passengers, down by 1.6% compared to June 2015, of which: - 6.5m (-2.4%) passengers through Paris-Charles de Gaulle (+1.2% since 01/01/2016); - 3m (+0.3%) through Paris-Orly (+4.2% since 01/01/2016). Traffic within France was down (-2.5%), European traffic (excluding France; 47% of total traffic) was up (-0.3%), but other International traffic excluding Europe (39% of total traffic) was down by 2.5%, with: French Overseas Territories +3.5% North America -1.8% The Middle East -5.5% Latin America -2.3% Africa -2.6% Asia-Pacific (-11.6%), mainly due to a decrease to Japanese and Malaysian destinations, partially offset by the growth in traffic to China. The number of connecting passengers decreased by 0.6%. The connecting rate decreased by 0.1pt. Passenger traffic at TAV Airports (38%-owned by ADP) was +1.9% in August, reaching +2.2% since the beginning of the year mainly due to the Turkish airport but also the Tunisian airport (-63% yoy). Santiago’s (45% ADP-owned) passenger traffic was up 8.9% (+10.9% since the beginning of the year).
19 Jan 17
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FY16 trading update; 4% earnings upgrade
24 Jan 17
The trading update confirms another year of double digit earnings growth for Empresaria. We anticipate acceleration in growth rates in FY17 reflecting organic growth, acquisition contribution and FX tailwinds; Arden forecast FY17 earnings growth of 24%. We believe this is not reflected in a FY17 valuation of 8.4x, with the relationship to growth expressed in a Price Earnings Growth ratio of 0.35x. The valuation is inconsistent with current trading, geographical alignment and delivery of the strategy to acquire niche growth businesses such as Rishworth and ConSol, which are fundamentally improving the quality of earnings at Empresaria. The shares represent a conviction Buy.
N+1 Singer - St Ives - Downgrade
19 Jan 17
Marketing activation has been impacted by further decline in grocery retail impacting profit by c£5m. Strategic The Company is also taking this opportunity to revise its guidance for Strategic Marketing as its recovery pace is not running at the planned target rate. PBT falls from N1Se £31.9m to £25m. The Company expects dividend to be held based upon lowered guidance and the implied cash flow performance. There do not appear to be any covenant issues. Forecasts and TP under review and downgrade to Hold. We expect the shares to test the 100p level.
Trading conditions difficult but acquisitions underpin growth
23 Jan 17
FY16 revenue will be £53.7m (FY15: £44.8m), in line with ZC estimate of £53.9m, showing growth of c. 20% yoy underpinned by the three acquisitions undertaken in the year. However, due to higher costs relating to the acquisitions and, to a lesser extent, gross margin pressure, PBT will be in the region of £7.0 to £7.2m equating to growth of between 5.5% and 8.0%. As a result, FY16 ZC profit forecast is reduced by 8.0% to £7.0m. The impact in FY18 and FY19 is muted by the announcement of a further acquisition leading to an increase in revenue estimates of 8.7% whilst profit estimates fall c.4.5% in each year, respectively. Despite the decrease in forecasts the PER multiple on FY17 earnings remains single digit at just 9.1x, against a distributor average of 15.8x. With commitment to the forecast dividend increase reiterated, Flowtech offers an above average yield of 4.1%
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 19-01-2017
19 Jan 17
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16 Jan 17
We take a look at the rankings of the various countries in Africa that have a significant exposure to mining. We take the Transparency International corruption rankings as our starting point and modify these for exceptional geology and for current UK government travel warnings. Ghana, Botswana and Namibia come out as our top three, with Eritrea, Kenya and Zimbabwe at the bottom of our rankings.