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Research Tree offers ILIAD SA research coverage from 1 professional analysts, and we have 4 reports on our platform.
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Still deserves a little premium
06 Sep 16
Q2 revenues were up by 6.1% yoy to €1.15bn. This increase breaks down as follows: +10.7% for the Mobile side and +2.9% for the Fixed. But, note these revenues are up by only 0.5% qoq (vs Q1) and by 0.7% compared to Q4 15. The growth is indeed slowing down and the H2 performance could be significantly lower. As for EBITDA, the group, as usual, does not give a breakdown by segment. But, nonetheless, H1 EBITDA has grown by 11.5% yoy and, if we retain a 47% margin for the Fixed activities, the Mobile margin was indeed around 20% in H1: an impressive number (a little bit above that of Bouygues Telecom at 18%!).
Solid growth in Q1
17 May 16
Q4 revenues were up by 6.6% yoy to €1,145m. This increase breaks down as follows: +10.4% for the mobile side and +3.9% for the Fixed. Even if they are perfectly flat qoq, these numbers are quite solid (and better than in Q4 which had already recorded a correct growth of 4.6% yoy).
An impressive EBITDA in H2
10 Mar 16
Q4 revenues were up by 4.6% yoy but above all they were up by nearly 3% qoq, quite a good performance, reflecting a clear recovery in H2 after a disappointing H1 (with a revenue decline of 1.6% qoq in Q1 and a very slight growth of only 0.9% qoq in Q2). Although the mobile growth is logically slowing (+7.2% yoy in Q4 vs 13.3% for the whole year and a trend at +30% yoy a year ago), the Fixed business remains very solid with 2.8% yoy growth in Q4 (Fixed revenues grew by only a poor 0.5% yoy in H1). As for EBITDA, the group, like in the release of its 2014 results, has decided not to give its breakdown by segment (quite a shame for a group which has gained market shares by breaking prices on the mobile side!). But nonetheless the H2 EBITDA has grown by 16% yoy and if we retain a 45-46% margin for the Fixed activities, the Mobile margin was indeed 18% in H1: an impressive number (similar to that of Bouygues Telecom!) only five years after the commercial launch of these activities. The number of mobile customers is up by 15.6% yoy at end December (and up by 3.3% qoq). Therefore the mobile revenue growth of 7.2% reflects an unexpected… increasing mobile ARPU.
Poor revenue growth qoq but probably an accurate mobile EBITDA margin
31 Aug 15
Q2 revenues were up by 7% yoy but, although Mobile revenues increased by 17.6% yoy, Fixed revenues were up by only 0.6% yoy (remember they were already perfectly stable yoy in Q1). Note also Q2 revenues are indeed up by less than 1% qoq (remember that in Q1 for the first time in Iliad’s story, they were down by 1.7% qoq). The number of mobile customers is up by 20.1% yoy at end June (and up by 3.8% qoq). Therefore the mobile revenue growth of 17.6% reflects a still declining mobile ARPU (now under €14 per month). As for EBITDA, the group, like in the release of its 2014 results, has decided not to give its breakdown by segment (quite a shame for a group which has gained market shares by breaking prices!). The H1 EBITDA has however grown by 16.2% yoy and if we retain a 45% margin for the Fixed activities, the Mobile margin was indeed 15% in H1: a much better number than the poor 10% we were expecting.
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Upgrade on lower costs, pipeline strong
24 Oct 16
Fusionex’s year-end trading update indicates that revenues will be in line with market expectations (we estimate 16% revenue growth in FY16) and that a strong pipeline for GIANT 2016 should drive further momentum in FY17. The planned increase in sales, marketing and other investment to support adoption of GIANT has been more moderate than we forecast, meaning that EBITDA is expected to be significantly above consensus. We upgrade our FY16 EBITDA by MYR3.2m (83% but from a compressed level) to reflect this, while leaving our estimates for FY17 and FY18 unchanged.
N+1 Singer - NCC Group - Strong revenue but margins weaker in H1
20 Oct 16
NCC’s trading update for the four months to September shows continued strong revenue growth, but margin pressures in the first half mean that profit for the year will be more second half weighted than usual. Group revenue increased 36% in the period (+21% organic) with Assurance and Escrow both growing well (+25% and +4% respectively). The Assurance division has seen three unrelated large contract cancellations however, as well as some difficulties with some managed services renewals. We are not making any changes to our forecasts at this stage but now expect a significant second half weighting to profits. We remain supportive of the story but with the shares priced for perfection, we downgrade to Hold, with a target price of 353p (from 384p).
A slower ramp for GOV.UK Verify
20 Oct 16
Underlying trading was solid in H116. However the new GOV.UK Verify service is behind plan and we are pairing back our revenue estimates to reflect a slower ramp. Outperformance and deferred investment elsewhere mitigates the earnings impact of this in FY16, but we reduce EPS forecasts by 5% in FY17 and FY18. The business remains very well placed, but we believe that a period of share price consolidation is likely ahead of the transition to the new CEO, Chris Clark (ex-Experian) in April 2017.
N+1 Singer - Earthport - Traction continuing to build
26 Oct 16
Earthport has reported an in-line set of results for the full year to June’16. The group has delivered 89% growth in the number of transactions, resulting in payment volumes through the platform increasing to $11.8 billion. A FY’16 adj. EBITDA loss of £7.5m represents a strong HoH trajectory (H1 loss £5.3m, H2 loss £2.2m) and the group has reaffirmed its commitment to becoming cash generative in Q4’17. Earthport has proved that it can scale new customers quickly as well as extracting significant volume increases from existing customers. With multiple catalysts on the horizon and a strong start to the year already achieved, we believe the group is very well-placed to gain a significant share of the vast cross-border payments market.