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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ILIAD SA. We currently have 6 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Still not a mainstream telco
07 Mar 17
Iliad has released a good set of results for its Q4 revenues and for its H2 EBITDA. Q4 revenues were up by 8.5% yoy, but above all by 5% qoq: a very good number as its qoq growth was 2.5% in Q3 but only 0.5% in Q2 and 0.7% in Q1. If we look at the breakdown: - on the Mobile side: revenues were logically up by 12.5% yoy (as in Q3) and by a still solid +4.9% qoq with, beyond just good recruitment (c.315k new customers vs +335k for Bouygues Telecom, the two now having mobile bases at 12.7m (Iliad) and 13m (Bouygues)), the fact that many customers have moved from the €2 plan to the €20 plan. - on the Fixed side: revenues were up by 5.2% yoy and by 4.6% qoq (after three quarters at…0%!): a very good number, better than expected…invalidating for this quarter that, on Fixed, Iliad is becoming a…normal telco. EBITDA stood at €1,676m, corresponding to a margin of 35.5% for the whole year (vs 33.7% in 2015). The H2 EBITDA margin was 35.8% (we were expecting 35.6%) vs 35.2% in H1 and 33.9% in H2 15. Even if the group does not give a breakdown of its EBITDA, it seems that the good performance in Fixed has allowed a slightly better than expected margin in H2.
The strategy to move customers toward the €20 plan has been working
16 Nov 16
Q3 revenues were up by 6.5% yoy, but above all by 2.5% qoq: a good number as its qoq growth was only 0.5% in Q2 and 0.7% in Q1. If we look at the breakdown: - on the Mobile side: revenues were up by 12.5% yoy and by a surprising +5% qoq with, beyond just good recruitment (305k new customers vs +227k for Bouygues Telecom, the two having now the same mobile base at c.12.5m), the fact that many customers have moved from the €2 plan to the €20 plan. - on the Fixed side: revenues were up by 2.5% yoy but by exactly… 0% qoq (for the third time running!). So it seems that, on Fixed, Iliad is clearly becoming a… normal telco. In all, a good release on the Mobile side and a standard one on Fixed.
Still deserves a little premium
06 Sep 16
Q2 revenues were up by 6.1% yoy to €1.15bn. This increase breaks down as follows: +10.7% for the Mobile side and +2.9% for the Fixed. But, note these revenues are up by only 0.5% qoq (vs Q1) and by 0.7% compared to Q4 15. The growth is indeed slowing down and the H2 performance could be significantly lower. As for EBITDA, the group, as usual, does not give a breakdown by segment. But, nonetheless, H1 EBITDA has grown by 11.5% yoy and, if we retain a 47% margin for the Fixed activities, the Mobile margin was indeed around 20% in H1: an impressive number (a little bit above that of Bouygues Telecom at 18%!).
Solid growth in Q1
17 May 16
Q4 revenues were up by 6.6% yoy to €1,145m. This increase breaks down as follows: +10.4% for the mobile side and +3.9% for the Fixed. Even if they are perfectly flat qoq, these numbers are quite solid (and better than in Q4 which had already recorded a correct growth of 4.6% yoy).
An impressive EBITDA in H2
10 Mar 16
Q4 revenues were up by 4.6% yoy but above all they were up by nearly 3% qoq, quite a good performance, reflecting a clear recovery in H2 after a disappointing H1 (with a revenue decline of 1.6% qoq in Q1 and a very slight growth of only 0.9% qoq in Q2). Although the mobile growth is logically slowing (+7.2% yoy in Q4 vs 13.3% for the whole year and a trend at +30% yoy a year ago), the Fixed business remains very solid with 2.8% yoy growth in Q4 (Fixed revenues grew by only a poor 0.5% yoy in H1). As for EBITDA, the group, like in the release of its 2014 results, has decided not to give its breakdown by segment (quite a shame for a group which has gained market shares by breaking prices on the mobile side!). But nonetheless the H2 EBITDA has grown by 16% yoy and if we retain a 45-46% margin for the Fixed activities, the Mobile margin was indeed 18% in H1: an impressive number (similar to that of Bouygues Telecom!) only five years after the commercial launch of these activities. The number of mobile customers is up by 15.6% yoy at end December (and up by 3.3% qoq). Therefore the mobile revenue growth of 7.2% reflects an unexpected… increasing mobile ARPU.
Poor revenue growth qoq but probably an accurate mobile EBITDA margin
31 Aug 15
Q2 revenues were up by 7% yoy but, although Mobile revenues increased by 17.6% yoy, Fixed revenues were up by only 0.6% yoy (remember they were already perfectly stable yoy in Q1). Note also Q2 revenues are indeed up by less than 1% qoq (remember that in Q1 for the first time in Iliad’s story, they were down by 1.7% qoq). The number of mobile customers is up by 20.1% yoy at end June (and up by 3.8% qoq). Therefore the mobile revenue growth of 17.6% reflects a still declining mobile ARPU (now under €14 per month). As for EBITDA, the group, like in the release of its 2014 results, has decided not to give its breakdown by segment (quite a shame for a group which has gained market shares by breaking prices!). The H1 EBITDA has however grown by 16.2% yoy and if we retain a 45% margin for the Fixed activities, the Mobile margin was indeed 15% in H1: a much better number than the poor 10% we were expecting.
Earnings upgrade following acquisition
17 Apr 17
Following the recent acquisition of Ingresso we upgrade our estimates by c10% in 2017. Ingresso owns and operates a software platform which enables sales through global third party distribution channels. This looks another smart acquisition by ACSO who continue to create a more efficient flow in the extremely fragmented leisure and ticketing industry. We increase our T/P to 2000p and upgrade to BUY.
N+1 Singer - Servelec Group - Calling the bottom
20 Apr 17
We are increasingly confident that Servelec’s travails are behind it and the business is returning to growth. Recent share price weakness looks unwarranted in this context and the valuation now looks compelling. Our forecasts are essentially unchanged, but we see medium term upside as the group’s markets improve. Servelec remains a key idea for 2017 and we reiterate our Buy recommendation and 325p Target Price.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 24-04-2017
24 Apr 17
First Derivatives (FDP LN) FY slightly ahead as strong trading momentum continues | Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL LN) A potentially exciting corporate development | mporium Group (MPM LN) 2016 results: course set for exciting 2017 | Vectura Group (VEC LN) VR315 risk outweighs longer-term potential
Pickup in H2 organic growth as expected
20 Apr 17
Headline revenue growth of 19% reflects a full half contribution of ID Scan and a pickup in organic growth to 12% across the year driven by the excellent performance from the higher margin international services. The mix effects of this growth resulted in EBIT of £17m, 4% ahead of our forecasts, and a 1.1pp improvement in the operating margin.
19 Apr 17
Lombard Risk Management* (LRM): Beats demanding growth and profit forecasts (CORP) | Frontier Developments* (FDEV): Steaming ahead (CORP) | Tax Systems* (TAX): Right place, right time (CORP) | Acal (ACL): Stronger H2 and brighter outlook (BUY) | Fenner (FENR): Interim results signal upgrades (BUY) | Minds + Machines* (MMX): US and Europe domain sales (CORP)