Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ILIAD SA. We currently have 5 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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The strategy to move customers toward the €20 plan has been working
16 Nov 16
Q3 revenues were up by 6.5% yoy, but above all by 2.5% qoq: a good number as its qoq growth was only 0.5% in Q2 and 0.7% in Q1. If we look at the breakdown: - on the Mobile side: revenues were up by 12.5% yoy and by a surprising +5% qoq with, beyond just good recruitment (305k new customers vs +227k for Bouygues Telecom, the two having now the same mobile base at c.12.5m), the fact that many customers have moved from the €2 plan to the €20 plan. - on the Fixed side: revenues were up by 2.5% yoy but by exactly… 0% qoq (for the third time running!). So it seems that, on Fixed, Iliad is clearly becoming a… normal telco. In all, a good release on the Mobile side and a standard one on Fixed.
Still deserves a little premium
06 Sep 16
Q2 revenues were up by 6.1% yoy to €1.15bn. This increase breaks down as follows: +10.7% for the Mobile side and +2.9% for the Fixed. But, note these revenues are up by only 0.5% qoq (vs Q1) and by 0.7% compared to Q4 15. The growth is indeed slowing down and the H2 performance could be significantly lower. As for EBITDA, the group, as usual, does not give a breakdown by segment. But, nonetheless, H1 EBITDA has grown by 11.5% yoy and, if we retain a 47% margin for the Fixed activities, the Mobile margin was indeed around 20% in H1: an impressive number (a little bit above that of Bouygues Telecom at 18%!).
Solid growth in Q1
17 May 16
Q4 revenues were up by 6.6% yoy to €1,145m. This increase breaks down as follows: +10.4% for the mobile side and +3.9% for the Fixed. Even if they are perfectly flat qoq, these numbers are quite solid (and better than in Q4 which had already recorded a correct growth of 4.6% yoy).
An impressive EBITDA in H2
10 Mar 16
Q4 revenues were up by 4.6% yoy but above all they were up by nearly 3% qoq, quite a good performance, reflecting a clear recovery in H2 after a disappointing H1 (with a revenue decline of 1.6% qoq in Q1 and a very slight growth of only 0.9% qoq in Q2). Although the mobile growth is logically slowing (+7.2% yoy in Q4 vs 13.3% for the whole year and a trend at +30% yoy a year ago), the Fixed business remains very solid with 2.8% yoy growth in Q4 (Fixed revenues grew by only a poor 0.5% yoy in H1). As for EBITDA, the group, like in the release of its 2014 results, has decided not to give its breakdown by segment (quite a shame for a group which has gained market shares by breaking prices on the mobile side!). But nonetheless the H2 EBITDA has grown by 16% yoy and if we retain a 45-46% margin for the Fixed activities, the Mobile margin was indeed 18% in H1: an impressive number (similar to that of Bouygues Telecom!) only five years after the commercial launch of these activities. The number of mobile customers is up by 15.6% yoy at end December (and up by 3.3% qoq). Therefore the mobile revenue growth of 7.2% reflects an unexpected… increasing mobile ARPU.
Poor revenue growth qoq but probably an accurate mobile EBITDA margin
31 Aug 15
Q2 revenues were up by 7% yoy but, although Mobile revenues increased by 17.6% yoy, Fixed revenues were up by only 0.6% yoy (remember they were already perfectly stable yoy in Q1). Note also Q2 revenues are indeed up by less than 1% qoq (remember that in Q1 for the first time in Iliad’s story, they were down by 1.7% qoq). The number of mobile customers is up by 20.1% yoy at end June (and up by 3.8% qoq). Therefore the mobile revenue growth of 17.6% reflects a still declining mobile ARPU (now under €14 per month). As for EBITDA, the group, like in the release of its 2014 results, has decided not to give its breakdown by segment (quite a shame for a group which has gained market shares by breaking prices!). The H1 EBITDA has however grown by 16.2% yoy and if we retain a 45% margin for the Fixed activities, the Mobile margin was indeed 15% in H1: a much better number than the poor 10% we were expecting.
N+1 Singer - NCC Group - Further issues in Assurance
22 Feb 17
NCC released a trading update yesterday afternoon highlighting further issues in its Assurance division. Sales growth has been lower than expected in all regions, resulting in a significant reduction in full year expectations. We have reduced our EPS forecasts by 25% in FY’17 and 22%/25% in FY’18/’19 respectively. Escrow continues to perform in line with expectations. In response to these issues the Board has announced a strategic review into all of the Assurance businesses. The results of the strategic review are expected to be announced at the FY results in July. With an extended period of uncertainty on the horizon we believe it will be hard for investors to gain confidence in NCC in the short term. That said we see fundamental value in the stock. Escrow is unaffected by this warning and remains an extremely high quality business, which we value at £353m in our SOTP. At the current share price this leaves Assurance valued at c.5x cal’17 EBITDA. While this appears to be an attractive multiple for a rare cybersecurity asset, we would like further clarity on the underlying nature of the current issues, hence our Hold recommendation. Our 138p target price assumes a 12x EBITDA multiple for Assurance but we apply a 20% discount to the group to account for the current uncertainty.
20 Feb 17
Hayward Tyler Group* (HAYT): Trading update and financial position (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDL): Interim results (BUY) | Gemfields* (GEM): Interim results (CORP) | Premaitha Health* (NIPT): Middle East momentum (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): Acquisition update and TE-8 well spud (HOLD) | Proactis* (PHD): Interim trading on track (CORP) | 7digital* (7DIG): Automotive contract win (CORP)
21 Feb 17
Lighthouse Group* (LGT): Middle Britain growth (CORP) | Utilitywise* (UTW): Double-digit sales growth (CORP) | Trakm8* (TRAK): Earnings expectations cut again (CORP) | dotDigital* (DOTC): Myriad growth opportunities (CORP) | Artilium* (ARTA): Five-year Telenet deal secured and prepaid (CORP) | Netcall* (NET): Cloud investment pays off (CORP)
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - New quality style screen + 11 quality focus stocks
09 Feb 17
We introduce our fourth and final style screen representing “quality”. This screens for stocks with the best combination of high returns on capital/equity, EBIT margins and operating cash-flow conversion rates. These criteria should help us monitor how strong underlying returns translate into share price performance over time and under varying market conditions. The screen selects the “best” 25 stocks from our universe of just over 500 stocks and, as usual, we focus on a shorter list of stocks we cover or otherwise know and believe to be particularly interesting. We provide brief investment summaries on these focus stocks on pages 4 – 9. We will monitor performance and refresh the screen in approximately 3-4 months time.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
N+1 Singer - PROACTIS Holdings - H1 in line
20 Feb 17
A positive interim trading update confirms that H1 results are in line with expectations, with revenues up 36% to c£11.8m on the back of strong organic growth (13%) and an in-line contribution from acquisitions. We make no changes to our forecasts, recommendation and target price pending the release of interim results on 26 April.