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Q1: Good quarter driven by the Americas and an improved China
20 Oct 16
Pernod’s Q1 update: sales grew organically +4% (cons. +2.7%). OG by division: Europe +6% (cons. +2%, +2% restated for technical impact), the Americas +8% (cons. +2.8%), Asia/ROW +0% (cons. +2.5%). On reported figures, sales were up +1% (FX: -3%). OG by category: International brands +3% (vs. 2% last year), Strategic Local brands +5% (in line with last year), Wines -1%. The company highlighted the good performance in the US and India, early signs of improvement in China, and a difficult Africa & Middle East (due to macro and geopolitical situations) and Travel retail in Asia & Europe. The company maintained its FY guidance: 2-4% organic growth in profit from recurring operations.
Consensus eps falling…falling…falling…rising 2.0
29 Apr 16
In January we screened for companies with estimates that had been declining consistently since a year previously, but which had risen in the immediately preceding three months (see our note dated 22 January 2016). We have reviewed the performance of those companies and, given the overall strength of this selection, we have re-run the screen. In the c.3 months since selection, the unweighted average rise was c.34% against a c.11% rise in the main All-Share index. From the same universe as before (some 900 companies) we find 38 companies selected by the screen. We note a number of stocks in the list where we have a supportive stance including: Devro (DVO LN, Buy), James Fisher (FSJ LN, Corporate), Mattioli Woods (MTW LN, Buy) and Spirent Communications (SPT LN, Buy).
VSA Agri Monthly
28 Jun 16
VSA Agri Thought for the Month It is hard to forecast the precise impact on UK farming from the recent Brexit vote but we would highlight a few areas: Subsidies: Annual subsides of c£3bn are currently paid to UK farmers. Farming Minister George Eustice has previously said that support would be maintained following a Brexit vote. Farmers will be anxious to see this happen. However, money may be saved through a cap on the maximum payout for the largest farms. Regulation: How will regulations change as we exit the EU Common Agricultural Policy? Farmers will look for regulations to be simplified and more tailored to the UK. Exports: A weaker currency should increase the attractiveness of UK farming exports, offset by any increased cost from raw material imports and any newly imposed trade tariffs. Labour: UK farming is heavily reliant on seasonal agricultural workers, many from other EU states. The UK government has previously looked to encourage the employment of more UK workers on-farm but how will things change for those bringing in workers from abroad?
VSA Agri Monthly
28 Jul 16
VSA Agri Thought for the Month Leading Brexiteer Andrea Leadsom was appointed Secretary of State for the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) this month. Perhaps one of the most unenviable jobs in the new UK government, given the importance of EU subsidies to the country’s farming sector. Agra Europe estimated last year that up to 90% of UK farms would not survive without them. Given that the EU Common Agricultural Policy has long been criticised by environmentalists and free-market proponents alike, leaving the scheme is likely to be viewed positively by many. But what comes next? We believe we are likely to see some sort of reduction of subsidies (particularly for the largest farms and most uneconomic activities) as well as greater exposure to foreign imports through additional free trade agreements. We feel a focus on technology and a push for “efficiency” will also be high on the agenda, which could provide a boost to AgTech companies developing products in this area.
VSA Morning Agri Comment
02 Nov 15
NWF Fuels Acquisition UK specialist agricultural and distribution business, NWF Group (NWF LN), has announced the acquisition of Staffordshire Fuels Limited, a seven tanker, 32 million litres of fuel per year operation that operates in Staffordshire and the West Midlands. VSA Comment NWF sold 420 million litres of fuel in FY 2015, so this acquisition should boost annual volumes by approximately 7.6%, in a new operating region around Stone, between Uttoxeter and Market Drayton and down as far as Cannock. Although no historic financials have been provided, NWF will likely look to target its 1p operating profit per litre for these new operations. This would suggest a boost to annual operating profits of at least £320k, although NWF has confirmed that this is on the conservative side, and should be more so once administration and finance operations have been consolidated (targeting £400k-500k per year).
VSA Agri Monthly: May 2015
28 May 15
After last year’s anticipated arrival, and subsequent no-show, it looks like the El Niño phenomenon may finally appear this year. Depending on its severity, this can bring wet conditions in the Americas with drought conditions in Australia and South-East Asia. This would benefit palm oil prices, although the physical impact on production would After last year’s anticipated arrival, and subsequent no-show, it looks like the El Niño phenomenon may finally appear this year. Depending on its severity, this can bring wet conditions in the Americas with drought conditions in Australia and South-East Asia. This would benefit palm oil prices, although the physical impact on production would be lagged. A more immediate impact is likely to be seen with West African cocoa. The benchmark US cocoa price has increased c10% this month as fears of an El Niño have increased, along with the concerns about the level of production in Ghana, the world’s second largest producer. At the start of the year, we forecast that the benchmark US cocoa contract would surpass its 2014 high of US$3,371/t. It is currently trading at US$3,150/t, just c7% shy of this level.be lagged.