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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA-REG. We currently have 47 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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2017 earnings just short of our expectations
16 Mar 17
Lufthansa’s consolidated revenue fell by 1.2% to €31.7bn in 2016. However, earnings were sharply up as the group benefited from the pension settlement with UFO members, i.e. the crews (excluding the pilots). As a result of this one-time gain of €661m, EBIT increased by 36% to €2.28bn, otherwise it would have fallen by 3.7% to €1.61bn. Stated net earnings were up by 4.6% to €1.78bn which allows management to propose an unchanged dividend of €0.50, whereas we had expected a cut to €0.25.
Early 2017 was superb
10 Mar 17
The group’s number of passengers was up by 12.4% to 7.77m in February which brought the ytd number to 15.64m, an increase of 12.5%. These growth rates were overwhelmingly achieved by Eurowings (the budget brand) which saw its passenger numbers rising by 70% to 1.70m and 69% to 3.39m, respectively. However, brandname airlines (i.e. Lufthansa, Swiss, and AUA) also saw positive growth rates (+2.6% to 6.06m and +2.9% to 12.25m).
Lufthansa and its pilots have settled the pay dispute, but nothing else
15 Feb 17
The two parties have agreed to the result of the mediation process which translates into a wage increase, in four steps, of 8.7%. In addition, a one-off payment of €30m has been agreed which gives each of the airlines 5,400 pilots another €5,000-6,000. However, the parties involved have not agreed on anything else, i.e. not on a new pension scheme and the early retirement scheme. According to management, the pay deal will cost the carrier some €85m annually and the contract expires at the end of 2019. As the pilots intend to negotiate each open point of discussion separately, they are likely to threaten with new strike action in the not too distant future. Management has reacted by announcing its intention to man 40 new aircraft with pilots who are not part of the Lufthansa contract. It is unclear whether these are new aircraft or whether these will replace old jets.
Superb start into the new year, by Eurowings
09 Feb 17
The number of passengers increased by 13% to 7.88m in January. As demand (+10.5%) increased more strongly than the offer (+9.9%), the SLF was up by 0.4pp to 76.0%. Cargo freight demand (+4.9%) was also up more strongly than the offer (+1.7%) which resulted in a 2.0pp improvement in the FLF to 65.9%. Lufthansa’s legacy airlines (i.e. Lufthansa, SWISS and Austrian) showed single-digit passenger increases with the strongest growth to Middle East/Africa (+6.3%). The consolidated group’s passenger number was up by double-digits as the budget brand (i.e. Eurowings) saw the number rising by 68% to 1.69m. In spite of this, this SLF was down by 0.9pp to 71.2% as the offer was up by 115% while demand increased by ‘only’ 112%. On the other hand, the legacy airlines achieved rising SLFs to all destinations except for the Americas (-1.7pp to 78.7%) with the strongest growth achieved to/from APAC (+4.0% to 84.6%).
December was a good month in volume terms
10 Jan 17
The number of passengers was up by 5.9% to 7.79m in the last month (+1.8% to 109.7m in the full-year). As demand growth (+7.3%) outpaced the offer (+5.4%), the SLF improved by 1.3pp to 77.7%. The respective full-year numbers were +2.8%, +4.6% thus leading to an SLF of 79.1% (-1.4pp). Simultaneously, cargo demand increased by 8.3% while the offer was up by only 3.5% in December, i.e. the FLF improved by 3.1pp to 70.3%. The respective full-year numbers were +1.4% and +1.0% thus leading to an FLF of 66.6% (+0.3pp). The hub airlines’ (i.e. Lufthansa, SWISS, and AUA) traffic to/from APAC was only moderately up (the passenger number increased by 1.3% in December and was down by 2.7% in the full-year), it rose strongly to/from the Middle East/Africa (+10.5% but -1.7%, respectively) and to/from the Americas (+6.2% and +4.1%). Demand growth was slightly more subdued within Europe (+4.8% and +0.5%). The SLFs increased to/from all regions in December and to the Middle East/Africa in the full-year. However, all other destinations experienced falling full-year SLFs. Lufthansa’s budget airline Eurowings attracted a total of 18.43m passengers in 2016 (c. 17% of the total). Compared to 2015, this was an increase of 8.8%. However, Eurowings continued suffering falling SLFs in the last month and in the full-year and on both short- and long-haul flights.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 21-03-2017
21 Mar 17
accesso Technology (ACSO LN) Full year results in line, but key trading months still ahead | Augean (AUG LN) Double digit growth in ’16, good start to ‘17 | Earthport (EPO LN) Interims show continued top line strength | Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL LN) Good momentum under new team. It’s now all about delivery | IQE (IQE LN) FY’16 results prompt further upgrades | Microsaic Systems (MSYS LN) Challenges in 2016, strategy remains in place | mporium Group (MPM LN) Funds raised to help execute strategy | RhythmOne (RTHM LN) Dawn of the independents | ScS Group (SCS LN) Strong progress on key growth initiatives albeit comps now toughen | Sinclair Pharma (SPH LN) FY results: EBITDA ahead, Instalift™ gaining pace | Vectura Group (VEC LN) FY (9-month) results
N+1 Singer - N1S Trend spotting - Strategy update
08 Mar 17
In this new product we present some strategy theme updates arising out of our latest analysis of macro trends and economic data and our innovative Quant work. We also look at upcoming events and suggest topping up on some of our Best Ideas for 2017.
N+1 Singer - ScS Group - Strong progress on key growth initiatives albeit comps now toughen
21 Mar 17
Whilst interim results are complicated by timing differences around order deliveries (flattery of c£1.9m) and rephasing of marketing (drag of c£1.9m), adjusted EBITDA improved by c£1.7m on an underlying basis – moving ScS into positive territory in its historically loss-making first half. Good progress was made on all 4 growth strategies and it maintained its 5-star score on Trustpilot. Whilst LFL order intake is down c5-6% in current trading, this reflects weak retail park footfall in Feb (not a conversion issue) and it has seen an improvement since the start of March. This means it is on track to meet FY expectations. Reassuring dynamics on margins & costs may add to investor relief, with the shares on <2x EV/EBITDA.
N+1 Singer - Goals Soccer Centres - Good momentum under new team. It’s now all about delivery
21 Mar 17
2016 finals have come in marginally below consensus PBT forecasts but this should not detract from positive operational and strategic momentum. There is still much work to do, but the tenor of the results is encouraging and management signals a good start to FY17. The main surprise is news of a third USA site opening. We tweak our FY17/18 PBT forecast up by 2% and stay at Buy on recovery grounds with a 140p 12m TP.
On the Beach - Sunny Times Forecasted
15 Mar 17
On the Beach is a leading online retailer of ‘mainstream’ short-haul beach holidays, primarily targeting customers in the United Kingdom under the "On the Beach" brand. It currently has a market share of the UK online short-haul beach holiday market of approximately 19per cent, with its two largest competitors being TUI Travel and Thomas Cook.