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KBC’s Q3 shy beat on insurance, fees and LLPs was overshadowed by a miss and a quarterly decline in NII. This was accompanied by an NII guidance downgrade for both 2023 and 2024 which may prompt renewed fears of an NII peak. The total income guidance for 2023 was maintained as this should be offset by other sources of income. Still, the pressure on NII going forward encourages us to remain cautious in our model update.
Companies: KBC Groep (KBC:EBR)KBC Group N.V. (KBC:BRU)
AlphaValue
KBC published a good Q2-23, with the top-line growth being driven by higher NII, fees, trading but also by lower loan losses and impairments, offset by a miss on opex. The management downgraded its 2023 NII guidance due to higher costs on minimum required reserves held with central banks and increased wholesale funding and subordination costs. A €1.3bn buyback was announced and the management upgraded its cost of risk guidance for 2023 to 10-15bp (vs 20-25bp).
KBC published a good Q1 withe the top-line coming in in-line with the consensus despite the miss on NII. The cost line was better than expected despite the significant cost inflation. Asset quality remained very healthy with a net release over the quarter. The 2023 guidance was maintained while the long-term guidance was upgraded. A €1.3bn buyback is to be expected by the end of Q2, mostly composed of a distribution of the capital released by the sale of KBC Ireland.
KBC executed a strong Q4, again carried by higher NII, but also by a stronger insurance result and trading result. Costs were a bit above consensus as well as LLPs. Payout ratio was 60% this year while KBC will execute a €400m buy-back. Management guided for a 2023 total income above consensus and our estimates. NII tailwinds continue to be expected by management going forward.
KBC made a good Q3 thanks to a growing NII on the back of strong volume growth and higher NIM and higher insurance results mostly in P&C. Cost of risk increased a bit, although it was only due to some overlay made for geopolitical and macro-economic uncertainty. Guidance for 2022 was maintained, as well as 2024 guidance.
KBC realized a fairly good Q2 with beats on revenue, costs and LLPs. Management confirmed that the bank is set to benefit from the rising interest rate environment with tailwinds already being felt in the Czech Republic and Hungary, while Belgium, Slovakia and Bulgaria should progressively follow suit. Based on its view of interest rates and inflation, the management upgraded the guidance for both 2022 and 2024 (long-term guidance).
KBC realized a good Q1 22 with beats on both total income and PBT, supported by good revenue growth across the board. Operating expenses were nonetheless a miss due to a mix of regulatory expenses, inflation and one-offs. Cost of risk remained low with provisions being made in relation to the macroeconomic impact of the Ukrainian crisis, offset by Covid-19 provision releases. The guidance was downgraded with the management now expecting a slightly higher cost of risk. Still, positive jaw effects
KBC published slightly lacking Q4 21 results with PBT in line with consensus thanks to lower LLPs. Management’s guidance for FY22 was in line with consensus on income but was lower than expected on NII and was disappointing on costs. Still, guidance for 2022-24 was upgraded for both income and costs, with ambitious cost and fee expectations. One additional positive note came from the commitment by management to make additional capital distributions for any CET1 ratio above a 15% threshold using
KBC Groep released last Friday its numbers for Q3 21. These were overall better than expected, driven by higher fees and commissions (NII in line but should benefit from the increasing rates in Czech Republic). Guidance is better on the costs side with FY2021 growth in expenses expected to be below 2%. We will revise upwards our EPS expectations. KBC also announced this morning the acquisition of Raiffeisen’s Bulgarian banking business for a €1bn amount. It strengthens its position in Bulgaria.
KBC released this morning its numbers for Q4 20. The message was rather mixed as numbers were below expectations with a tone of cautiousness going into 2021, while capital was at a decent level but management looked cautious regarding the distribution of any excess capital (on top of the dividend allowed by the ECB). We will have to downgrade pre-loan losses numbers (reveues and expenses), while it should offset at the EPS level on the back of a lower cost of risk.
KBC released this morning its numbers for Q3 20. The numbers were better across the line as both total revenues and total expenses were above expectations. Loan losses were also below expectations (but mostly expected following previous Eurozone banks’ releases). The CET1 ratio at 16.6% was 10bp above expectations. Guidance in NII for 2020 is slightly revised upwards (due to one-off effects) while the estimate for FY2020 impairments is unchanged at €1.1bn (in line with consensus) with a range b
Companies: KBC Group N.V.
KBC Group (KBC) released this morning its numbers for Q2 20. Net profit was above expectations, driven by revenues and lower expenses (offsetting higher loan losses). Guidance for both loan losses and expenses is unchanged, although the company is expecting slightly higher net interest income (at €4.4bn vs €4.3bn previously). The CET1 ratio at 16.6% is 40bp above expectations. The bank will communicate a strategy update during the Q3 20 results and its long-term guidance with Q4 20 results.
KBC Groep released this morning its numbers for Q1 20. At the pre-provision level, these were higher than expected but the bank’s guidance for FY2020 was well below expectations. Lower net interest income and higher loan losses will indeed more than offset the decrease in total expenses. While the consensus should adjust its numbers downwards, we are comfortable with our estimates which are in line with the bank’s targets. KBC’s CET1 ratio at 16.3% is 70bp lower qoq but comfortably above requir
KBC Group this morning reported its numbers for Q219. Total income was below expectations (-2%) driven by softer net interest income in the quarter. With total expenses in line, profit before loan losses was 4% below expectations. Despite a change in the economic environment (slowing growth), management is maintaining its financial guidance for 2020. The CET1 ratio at 15.6% was 40bps lower QoQ (acquisition of the remaining stakes in the Czech building savings bank CMSS had a -30bps impact on CE
KBC Group released this morning its numbers for 2018 and Q4 18. Total income at €1.85bn is in line with expectations but the mix is more positive than expected with net interest income (NII) at €1.17bn, 2% above expectations. Total expenses were lower than expected at €996m (-3.5%). Hence, profit before loan losses at €852m was 5% above expectations. The CET1 ratio at 16% is flat qoq and 10bp lower than expectations (impact of marked-to-market on equity and IFRS 16). The Basel IV impact is s
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