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Positive detailed analysis of Phase II trial data
06 Oct 16
4SC has announced positive Phase II results from a more detailed analysis of the HCC Yakult Phase II trial data, which we believe could lead to further clinical development. It has also recently announced the sale of its immunology portfolio (Vidofludimus and a cytokine inhibitor), which further streamlines the company’s focus further on its core business of epigenetics while retaining potential upside (via milestones and royalties). We increase our rNPV to €117m from €110m to reflect the increase in potential of resminostat development in Japan.
Core focus on track despite disappointing results
13 Jun 16
4SC has announced that its partner Yakult Honsha did not reach the primary endpoint in its Asian liver cancer trial with all-comer patients. As a result, it will not be progressing resminostat to a pivotal study. These results do not affect 4SC’s core focus on the launch of its pivotal EU Phase II resminostat study in CTCL and progression of its earlier pipeline. A positive partnership with Link Health (4SC-205) and data at ASCO (4SC-202) underline this. Removal of the Japan HCC contribution reduces our rNPV to €104m (vs €145m).
Increased focus on core business
19 May 16
4SC’s Q1 results highlight an increased focus on its core business of epigenetic research and commercialisation, resulting from the sale of the operational assets (for €650k in proceeds) of its discovery and collaborative segment, 4SC Discovery. 2016 is an important year for 4SC with expected newsflow from its clinical pipeline including the launch of its potentially pivotal EU Phase II study with resminostat in Cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL) and expected Phase II Japanese trial data in HCC and NSCLC (from partner Yakult).
Important progression of clinical pipeline in 2016
01 Apr 16
2016 is an important year for 4SC as it will launch its potentially pivotal Phase II study with resminostat, an epigenetic cancer drug, in CTCL. In addition, we expect partner Yakult to report Phase II Japanese trial data in HCC and NSCLC. Alongside its primary focus on resminostat for CTCL, 4SC is actively pursuing partnerships for its earlier stage assets, 4SC-202 and 4SC-205, which would enable both candidates to move into Phase II. We maintain our rNPV at €143m, with near-term potential catalysts.
Pioneering epigenetics in cancer
21 Mar 16
The 4SC oncology strategy is primarily driven by epigenetics, a distinct and effective mechanism against many cancers. A potentially pivotal Phase II study with resminostat, an epigenetic cancer drug, in CTCL is due to start in H116, while partner Yakult should reveal Phase II Japanese trial data in HCC and NSCLC in 2016. Financings and/or collaborations may allow 4SC-202 and 4SC-205 to move into Phase II. We have made adjustments to our model to include a specific value for 4SC-202. Our rNPV rises slightly to €143m (€7.55 per share), with near-term potential upside on initiation of the Phase II CTCL study.
Resminostat refocused cancer strategy begins
06 Oct 15
4SC’s recent €29m capital increase has provided vital funds to advance the epigenetic lead candidate resminostat. Focus is now on an EU Phase II trial in CTCL, rather than liver cancer (HCC). HCC would have been more costly and time-consuming compared with CTCL. Clinical data in 2016 in HCC and NSCLC from the Yakult collaboration will allow 4SC to revisit, with less risk, the prospects for resminostat in other cancers ex-Asia. Combination of resminostat with new immunotherapies is also being explored. Our valuation increases from €115m to €141m to reflect the cash increase and fresh development plans for resminostat in CTCL (EU).
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21 Oct 16
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FY 2016 results
17 Oct 16
Full-year results were 7% ahead of the August trading update. Revenue growth of 27% was driven by Vitamin D, up c55%, and sterling's depreciation, which contributed c11% to growth. A higher final dividend together with a 20p special dividend implies a combined yield of 2.9%. Management is confident that Siemens will launch its troponin-based assay contributing to and largely replacing lost NT proBNP royalties in FY 2018. We have increased our target price to 1450p to reflect a 5% EPS upgrade to 2017 earnings and introduced a 2018 forecast, calling for EPS of 72.7p.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 21-10-2016
21 Oct 16
Xaar has announced that its FD, Alex Bevis, will be leaving to pursue other opportunities after almost 6 years with the group. A search is underway for his replacement and Alex will remain with Xaar until 24th March 2017. While Alex’s departure is disappointing, Xaar’s strategy remains on track, with new product launches expected to drive near term organic sales growth and a target of £220m sales by 2020. This reflects stronger leverage of Xaar’s innovative technology into a broader spread of end products and markets, with the £220m expected to be composed of broadly equal contributions from ceramics, packaging & product printing, Thin film/P4, and partnerships/M&A. Prospects for the group are exciting, with positive news flow on product launches and end markets anticipated over the year ahead.
25 Oct 16
"London’s blue chip index is called some 15 points higher during this morning’s opening trade, which should see the FTSE-100 test the psychologically important 7000 level once again. The US markets, whose principal indices all closed higher overnight, remain Europe’s main influence as investors track the territory’s latest round of deals and earnings. While broadly pleasing investors, technology issues continue to lead the way which resulted in the NASDAQ registering a full 1% rise on good trading volumes. Against this background, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President, Charles Evans, delivered a speech in which he predicted three US interest-rate rises before the end of 2017, while effectively suggesting that the central bank should allow its inflation target to be overshot before responding with confidence strangling hikes. Generally, however, his forecasts are not far from the current consensus, although he refused to be drawn of the timing of the first move which the markets continue to anticipate in the form of a 25bp move being delivered before the 2016 year-end. By comparison, Asia ended mixed, with the Shanghai Composite finishing unchanged as a weaker Yuan was countered by gains in resource stocks; the latter also boosted the ASX’s commodity-heavy index while a weaker Yen resulted in the Nikkei closing the session with the region’s strongest gain. No major UK macro data are due for release today, which means that traders will eyes will remain focussed on the US disclosure of consumer confidence and housing figures due this afternoon, with neither the ECB President Mario Draghi’s scheduled lecture or the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney’s appearance before the Lord’s Committee, expected to provide significant new market-sensitive information. Earnings or trading updates are expected from Anglo American Carpetright (AAL.L), GKN (GKN.L), National Express (NEX.L) and Whitbread (WTB.L). Significant quarterly earnings also due from US majors due this afternoon include Apple and General Motors. " - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
Panmure Morning Note 27-10-2016
27 Oct 16
CareTech announces that trading to September 2016 is in line with market expectations. The company continues to trade at a significant discount to peers, we believe this is unjustified given the consistent performance in recent periods, including double digit EBITDA growth and high dividend yield. We maintain our BUY recommendation and 380p price target.