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The Great Correction of 2022 saw the share prices of streamers plunge after market leader Netflix reported a slowdown/fall in subscriber growth. Having formerly been seduced by hectic subscriber growth rates, investors quickly refocused, this time on fundamental metrics such as revenue, margins, profits and cashflow. Since then, streamers have continued to take a steadily greater share of viewing while linear TV continues to decline. But growth in streaming subscribers in the US and UK is now a
Companies: AMZN DIS WBD NFLX NFLX ITV STVG PARA AMZN DIS
Hardman & Co
ITV published a consensus-beating Q3 trading update but not from the division it should have come from, explaining the strongly negative share price reaction. Specifically, the growth came from ITV studios (which is better assessed over a longer time frame) while advertising revenue came in below expectations despite the Rugby World Cup (that propelled the revenue of the French peers notably). The outlook is weak due to a challenging environment for advertising while the guidance has been lowere
Companies: ITV PLC
AlphaValue
There was no surprise on the trend in the Q1 23. The decrease in total advertising revenue and ITV Studios on constant currency was compared to high comparatives last year. Total digital revenue surged by +29% including strong digital advertising growth (+30%). There is no reversal of total advertising revenue expected in Q2 23 (-12%). The 2023 guidance was confirmed for ITV Studios with mid-single digit revenue growth and an adjusted EBITA margin at the low end of 13-15% of revenue.
Companies: ITV RR/ KWS JD/ SENX
Shore Capital
FY2022 was in line with expectation. Total advertising revenue was down -1% and ITV Studios revenue increased by +19% o/w +14% organically. Digital revenue was up +18%. The lower adjusted EBITA margin (19% of revenue, -5pts) was due to higher content costs (+5%) and infrastructure and overhead costs (+9%) in Media & Entertainment. The start to 2023 has been challenging for total advertising revenue (-11% expected in Q1 23). Revenue growth and margin improvement are expected for ITV Studios in 20
In 9m 22, total advertising revenue decreased by 2% including a weak September 2022 (-14%). ITV Studios performed well with organic revenue up +13% in 9m 22. For 2022, total advertising revenue should decrease by -1/-1.5% given the broadcasting of the Football World Cup in Q4 22 and ITV Studios’ revenue should exceed the 2019 level. ITVX (AVOD/SVOD) is a key driver for digital revenue. The full launch of free content (>10,000 hours) is due on 8 December 2022.
Q1 22 was strong in each division. Total advertising revenue increased by +16% as expected and digital advertising surged by +27%. ITV Studios revenue grew by +24% at constant currency thanks to strong deliveries of programmes. Total advertising revenue growth is expected to be +5% in H1 22 due to a tough comparative in Q2 22. ITV Studios benefits from the high demand for content and is confident on its performance in 2022. The launch of ITVX is confirmed for Q4 22.
ITV had a strong 2021 year with total advertising revenue growth of +24% and studios revenue growth of +31% organically. The adjusted EBITA margin increased to 24% of revenue (+3pt). The advertising market has been strong since the start of the year 2022 according to ITV (+14% expected in January-April 2022). Conversely, the acceleration of the development of digital revenue (£750m by 2026) with the launch of ITVX implies higher content investments that should weigh on the operating margin in 20
ITV had a strong performance in 9m21. It included strong total advertising revenue growth in Q3 21 (+32% vs -7% in Q3 20). The outlook is positive for Q4 21 with advertising revenue growth estimated at +11-13%. ITV Studios revenue growth (+32% in 9m21 vs +26% in H1 21) was driven by the delivery of programmes in the UK and international markets and higher revenue from streaming platforms. Q4 21 should benefit from the strong pipeline of programmes.
Q1 21 was characterised by opposing trends at ITV Studios and advertising. Revenue recovered at ITV Studios (+9%), while advertising decreased (-6%) due to a high comparative last year and continuing COVID-19 restrictions in the UK. Total advertising revenue turned favourably in March 2021 (+8%) and the positive trend was confirmed in April 2021 and until the end of H1 21 (+26% estimated vs -20% in H1 20).
In Q4 20, total advertising revenue turned positive (+3%). In 2020, based on a 16% decrease in revenue, the group’s adjusted EBITA (£573m, -21%) was above expectations and represented a margin rate of 21% of revenue (-1pt). ITV benefited from the reduction in programming costs and significant cost savings in both divisions. For 2021, total advertising revenue increased in March after two negative months. ITV Studios should continue to be impacted by COVID-19 restrictions and additional related c
In Q3 20, the decrease in total advertising revenue slowed significantly (-7% vs -43% in Q2 20, of which -42% in June). For Q4 20, ITV is expecting a slight increase yoy, assuming no prolongation of the containment into December. ITV Studios’ revenue dropped by 19% at constant currency in 9m19 (vs -17% in H1 20). The return to full capacity is challenging due to the second lockdown so that both revenue and the EBITA margin should be impacted in Q4 20.
Total advertising revenue dropped by 43% in Q2 20 and ITV Studios was affected by the stop in production. The adjusted EBITA margin collapsed to 14% of revenue (-8pts yoy) despite the reduction in the cost of programmes by £77m and overheads cost savings of £51m over £60m targeted in 2020. There is no guidance for Q3 20 and FY2020. The negative trend in advertising was reduced in July 2020 (-23%). ITV Studios restarted production in June 2020.
In Q1 20, total advertising’s revenue (+2%) was in line with expectations and ITV Studios’ revenue (-10% organically) was impacted by the stopping of production since mid-March 2020. Advertising deteriorated in April 2020 (-42%) due to the lockdown and the cancellation of advertising campaigns. This may be a bottom considering the resumption of economic activity by the end of H1 20. ITV confirms cost savings, the reduction of capex and the cost of programmes.
In 2019, total advertising was better than expected and decreased by -1.5% (vs guidance of c.-2%). Lower group adjusted EBITA margin was attributable to Broadcasting, which had to support higher investments in the businesses, including the launch of BritBox UK, which were not completely offset by cost savings. The outlook for 2020 is uncertain due to the Coronavirus outbreak. Essentially, there should be a significant negative effect on TV advertising.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ITV PLC. We currently have 6 research reports from 8 professional analysts.
Vertu is the fourth largest automotive retailer in the UK, with 188 sales outlets and a track record of cross-cycle growth, principally through businesses it has acquired, funded by equity, debt and most importantly cash generation. Vertu operates across the entire vehicle lifecycle, including new and used vehicle sales, and vehicle servicing, repair and parts. Service and repair is a 40+% gross margin repeating business. With economic headwinds, the transition to electric vehicles, recent overs
Companies: Vertu Motors PLC
Progressive Equity Research
Today’s trading statement from ZOO highlights a ramp-up in demand following the end to the industry-wide strikes of last year. ZOO struck a note of caution in its January update regarding the timing of orders. However new productions are starting to translate into a healthy order pipeline, with a good recovery in revenue anticipated in H1 FY25. The update guides to revenue of at least $40m for the year to March 2024, ahead of our estimate at $36.8m. We have improved our adjusted EBITDA loss marg
Companies: ZOO Digital Group plc
Loungers is an award winning, uniquely positioned all day café-bar group that has grown revenues an impressive 22.5% CAGR FY16-FY23. Comprising of Lounges, Cosy Club and Brightside, the 257-site group still has huge scope to grow towards its conservative ambition of over 650 sites. Loungers is profitable with improving margins and we forecast will generate over £100m free cashflow (pre-expansion capex) FY24E-FY26E. This, we estimate, will fully fund c.100 new site openings over the next three y
Companies: Loungers Plc
Equity Development
Companies: Next plc (NXT:LON)Judges Scientific plc (JDG:LON)
The Hardman & Co Healthcare Index (HHI) has been running since 2009. Its main function is to highlight the attractions of life sciences investments over the long term. For the second year running, apart from global economic influences affecting world markets, performance in 2023 was dented by the capital-intensive nature of the sector. The HHI fell 3.7%, to 483.8, underperforming the main London markets – FTSE 100 (+3.8%) and FTSE All-Share (3.8%) but outperforming the FTSE AIM All-Share Index (
Companies: TXG NDVA TSVT BCOW Z29 TXG NCYT GNS SUN AMS OMG APH EKF EAH IMM AGL DEMG AGY TSTL IPO GDR ETX TRX HVO CTEC AVO OXB DEST VLG IXI VAL INDV AGR AVCT BAI 123F IMCR BCOW
Companies: JDW MAB MARS WTB FSTA BOWL CPG SSPG LGRS SSTY OTB HSW TMO GYM MEX
Liberum
Pinewood’s transition to a pure-play automotive SaaS business is now largely complete. Today we introduce summary forecasts out to FY26 and reiterate the investment case. We see significant opportunity for Pinewood to grow its user base in the UK and internationally whilst generating high EBITDA margins and cash conversion. With a 24.5p special dividend embedded in the current price (payable Q1/Q2), the effective price today is 12.3p. Based on the Group’s FY27 target of £27m EBITDA, we estimate
Companies: Pinewood Technologies Group PLC
Zeus Capital
This morning’s trading statement from ZOO confirms that production companies are taking longer than expected to complete projects. This follows the resumption of new production after the industry-wide strikes ended in November 2023. The anticipated January ramp-up has yet to fully materialise, with entertainment projects expected to complete in January now moving into February and beyond. However, ZOO has been notified by its largest customer of a pipeline of orders that provides good visibility
Companies: UTL ASC DNLM BWNG MONY DFS BOO
Flutter reported softer than expected Q3 23 trading numbers, as unfavourable sports results weighed on the cross-market performance. The firm lost share in the US even as competition intensified in a seasonally light sports quarter, sending the stock sharply lower. However, we expect a strong recovery in the US in Q4 even as Australia is now expected to remain a pain point into FY24. We will trim our estimates by low to mid-single digits to factor in the soft showing.
Companies: Flutter Entertainment Plc
Companies: Rank Group Plc
Companies: CTG NXT JTC
During 2023, ME Group commenced the deployment of its next generation photobooths, which are integrated with the group’s newly developed proprietary software, gained market leadership in the Japanese photobooth market with an acquisition, continued to roll out laundry units with existing and new location partners, commenced a share buyback programme and gained entry into the FTSE 250. 2023 was a year of significant strategic and financial progress, with sales up 15%, EPS up 31% and net cash main
Companies: ME Group International plc
Cavendish
Companies: Everyman Media Group PLC
Canaccord Genuity
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