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SCHWAELBCHEN MOLKEREI AG
SCHWAELBCHEN MOLKEREI AG
Hardman & Co Monthly: March 2017
01 Mar 17
Most major pharmaceutical companies have reported results for 2016 during the last few weeks, providing the opportunity to update our industry statistics. For an industry that requires a long investment cycle, decisions made many years ago have consequences on current financial performance. Being able to look at performance over 20 years highlights how strategic decisions have panned out.
10 for 17
09 Jan 17
As always at the start of a year, there are significant uncertainties about the year ahead but I think in 2017, the level of uncertainly has decisively moved up a gear. In fact, a leading economist at the LSE, Ethan Ilzetzki, was recently quoted as saying “I view the current global economic environment as the most uncertain in modern history”. Wow.
Driving distribution – price target raised
26 Jan 17
Fever Tree’s (FEVR LN, HOLD, T/P 1250p) strong second half trading statement and clear ability to drive distribution forward this calendar year prompts us to upgrade both our full year 2016 and 2017 forecasts as well as raise our price target from 1080p to 1250p, which implies a full valuation for now.
Breakfast in America
24 Feb 17
Peacock Foods should ensure Greencore enjoys organic, profitable convenience food expansion in both the UK and US. The acquisition transforms America, in our view. Moreover, while long term mature market growth remains the salient investment case driver, Peacock’s benefits currently appear unrecognised in Greencore’s share price. BUY.
Healthy 1H pub trading. Folding in Village Green deal
01 Mar 17
Pub trading remains healthy with Managed Pub LFL sales growth of 5.3% reported for 1H and tenanted LFL profit +1.7%. Brewing contribution was resilient with own beer volume +2.2%. Underlying operating profit of £7.6m (+6.5%) reflects estate management activity (tailwinds and headwinds), which helps offset emerging cost inflation near-term and should drive shareholder value in the medium-term. Our underlying forecasts are substantially unchanged but FY18 EPS moves up 3.5% as we fold the Village Green acquisition into our estimates. At 12x FY17 EBITDA the shares are not 'cheap' but we continue to see value upside from ongoing recycling of capital into higher return projects. We reiterate our BUY rating and 1500p TP.
04 Nov 16
Looking at the top 50 non-listed casual dining and bar operators, it appears that the £80bn market for eating and drinking out in the UK is alive and well. The AlixPartners Growth Company Index (October 2016) shows that 2-year profit CAGR has improved over the last few years, and recent surveys from Greene King, Coffer Peach and Deloitte highlight elevated spend on out-of-home occasions. We attribute this to 1) a shift amongst consumers from an ownership to experience-led mentality which has driven habitual spend on leisure 2) an increasing focus on food from historically wet-led operators as they diversify their revenue streams to mitigate competition from the off-trade and match consumer gravitation towards eating out and convenience; 3) increasing regional penetration resulting from oversupply and high rental costs in London and 4) strong sector support from Private Equity investors, attracted to the Leisure sector's cash flow profile which can be leveraged against. Nevertheless, we may look back on 2016 as the peak for casual dining and bar operator profitability, particularly for London-weighted operators who face unfavourable rent and rate costs as well as potential loss of cheap migrant/seasonal labour. Past performance is certainly not a guide to future performance.