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The building-related activities (DOM & MAC) could not escape a sudden softening in the market even though they enjoy the nominal steadiness of renovation markets. The industry-related activities shone but accounted for less than 30% of revenues. The management is worried about H2 and slashed its sales guidance to €680m which now looks like a floor. We have cut our 2023 earning forecast by c.30%.
Companies: Groupe SFPI (SFPI:EPA)Groupe SFPI SA (SFPI:PAR)
AlphaValue
Difficult H1-2023 and more cautious about H2 EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE € 3.86 vs 3.99 -3.28% The H1-2023 could not hide a slowdown in volume from Building-related (renovation mostly) businesses. Price hikes are now a thing of the past while input prices remain elevated. Volumes are down. Conversely the two 'industrial' units catering to BtoB business are doing well to very well. Now allowing for lesser ambitions for 2023, our TP is down marginally leaving considerable upside pot
Allowing for the 2022 actual figures and MAC restructuring efforts EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2023 : € 0.30 vs 0.37 -19.2% 2024 : € 0.33 vs 0.38 -13.5% We have trimmed our 2023 forecasts somewhat to allow for continuing restructuring efforts at the MAC business unit that are due to last into 2024. Incremental gains look a tad more difficult in 2023 after the good cost control in 2022. The Capital Goods units (NEU JFK and MMB) are having another strong year in 2023 while the demand for c
SFPI’s FY2022 disappointed. While it firmly stuck to its top-line objectives, margins were squeezed by fast(er) rising costs and a €4m mighty provisioning for a refoundation of its MAC division (windows, awnings, etc.). Accelerated capex is to follow. Earnings dropped by c. a third to €22m. We were banking on €26.8m. While management confirms its entrepreneurial skills (more capex, a stream of useful acquisitions, proactive deployment of ESG metrics), our 2023 earnings expectations need to be tr
SFPI sales gains in H1 (+8%) were marred by declining gross margins and rising inventories, typical of post-Covid input cost pressures. This is transitory. The allowance for the Wo&Wo acquisition from Q4-2022 is a positive for forward-looking earnings. A potential recession is not allowed for in our forecasts.
H1 margins under pressure - operations remain brisk EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2022 : € 0.30 vs 0.36 -16.9% 2023 : € 0.37 vs 0.37 -0.27% Despite sustained sales growth, mostly driven by price increases, H1 margins came under pressure from rising costs We have trimmed our expectations for 2022 a bit although the management is confident that a fair chunk of the missing gross margins will be recovered by H2. Our 2023 forecasts do not allow for a European downturn on the back of worsening
As strong as its locks EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE € 5.30 vs 5.00 +5.99% The target price benefits from extremely solid 2021 execution that has provided a higher base looking forward. We have injected a degree of caution on the outlook from H2-2022 even though the activity target (€600m sales) within reach. CHANGE IN EPS 2022 : € 0.36 vs 0.33 +10.8% 2023 : € 0.37 vs 0.37 +1.86% EPS mechanically benefit from the excellent 2021 execution. Looking into 2022 and 2023, the orde
Companies: Groupe SFPI SA (0N9P:LON)Groupe SFPI SA (SFPI:PAR)
SFPI delivered a surprisingly strong FY2021 net at €32m (+83%) through a combination of strong demand and a lean cost base. A solid order book and a very strong balance sheet bring confidence into 2022 with a €600m sales target
SFPI released impressive H1 earnings. H2 looks promising too. Ideal operating conditions may not survive into 2022.
Very strong H1 21 execution indeed EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2021 : € 0.29 vs 0.25 +17.4% 2022 : € 0.33 vs 0.27 +23.2% With sales back to 2019 levels and operating margins substantially higher (+470bp to 7.7%), we have allowed for a 2021 bound to be an excellent harvest. While headwinds might crop up in 2022, notably on input costs, the jury is still out so that 2022 margins have been raised as well. CHANGE IN DCF € 5.15 vs 4.18 +23.1% The DCF benefits from a stronger than expect
SFPI has navigated the Covid shock particularly well through tight management and a very healthy balance sheet that turned out to be even stronger by Dec 2020. 2021 looks very promising as splashing out on building continues and capex demand accelerates. We have upgraded our target price on this very sound industrial mini conglomerate.
Right assets to meet construction led demand TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE € 4.73 vs 3.83 +23.5 % The sharp increase in the target price is largely a reflexion of the excellent showing of SFPI in a really difficult 2020. This has confirmed its resilience. The group's positioning is the right one at this juncture (construction and capital goods, both seeing solid demand) but SFPI's proverbial caution means that it looks forward to 2021 with modest ambitions CHANGE IN EPS 2021
Tight, reactive management and a strong balance sheet policy saved the day in locked-down times. Management is cautious but the small industrial conglomerate holds the cards for a return to dividend payments in 2021.
Companies: Groupe SFPI SA
Upgrade to FY 2020 after robust H1 navigation EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS2020 : € 0.08 vs 0.00 +2,379% 2021 : € 0.17 vs 0.16 +1.83% The H1 20 delivery was a good surprise with a contained loss at €4.4m on sales down 21%, also a positive surprise for an industrial group mostly located in France where the lockdown has been a pretty harsh one. We allowed for a modest degree of recovery in H2 with FY sales down 13%. While operating margins are being slashed (higher costs, missing volumes here,
Robust funding, promises in locks & safety TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE€ 2.60 vs 3.17 -17.8% Our target price is mechanically cut by allowing for a c. 23% drop in 2020 revenues and a best guess at zero profits. The small industrial conglomerate entered the COVID-19 crisis with a very strong balance sheet and a cool-headed owner and CEO. It should rebound as quickly as its underlying markets, notably the promising security/safety ones. CHANGE IN EPS2020 : € 0.00 vs 0.21 -98.5%
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The FY24 year-end update is very upbeat signalling trading being materially ahead of expectations, with a better-than-expected profit out turn and stronger cash generation. It continues to strengthen margins through efficiencies and investment in modern equipment. The order book remains close to record levels providing a robust view of future forecasts. In FY24E we upgrade EPS by 11% and in FY25E a significant upgrade of 27.6%. It looks capable of declaring a dividend in FY25 as well as manageme
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Cavendish
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FY23 results show very strong growth over FY22, driven by strong Structural Steel activity, with results slightly ahead of upgraded profit expectations, while stronger than expected cash flow resulted in an unexpectedly generous dividend of 33p (offering a FY23 yield of 7.0%). The group now has net cash of £22.1m and is debt free and is therefore in a strong position for potential M&A activity. Following the recent £90m of new orders to increase the order book to record levels we conservatively
Companies: Billington Holdings Plc
Another Good Year of Diversified Growth with More to Come in 2024 CCapital have released their Q1 operating results. Overall, revenue has come in slightly lower than expected at $80.2m vs TamE of $85.9m but is largely tracking in line with our FY24 annual estimate and we note the company has maintained guidance. Drilling revenue for this quarter was impacted by a fall in utilisaztion rates as well as general remobilisation geographically but we expect a strong recovery throughout the year as k
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Tamesis Partners
Plant Health Care announced it has signed a distribution agreement with AMVAC, an American Vanguard Company, to support commercialisation of novel fertiliser products incorporating Plant Health Care's Harpinαβ in China starting in 2024. The novel product combines Harpinαβ technology with an AMVAC fertiliser and is expected to help growers improve crop quality and yield as part of an integrated and environmentally responsible crop production programme. AMVAC continues to evaluate Plant Health Car
Companies: Plant Health Care PLC
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Severfield’s trading update indicates that FY23 results are expected to slightly exceed market expectations and the company ends the year with a record UK and Europe order book. Furthermore, with a positive trading outlook and net debt coming in lower than expected, Severfield has announced a £10m share buyback, highlighting the cash-generative nature of the company and management’s confidence in its position. The stock trades on an FY25 P/E of less than 6x and yields 7%, which we believe appear
Companies: Severfield Plc
Edison
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Canaccord Genuity
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SP Angel
Acquisitions have been an important element of Severfield management’s growth strategy, with the aim of adding new products, sectors and regions to what we have identified as exciting long-term organic opportunities. In this Spotlight report, we focus on the group’s targeted M&A approach, highlighting three significant deals.
Progressive Equity Research
discoverIE’s March year-end update confirms a strong operational performance in challenging markets. Following two years when sales increased by +48%, FY 2024 Group sales were +1% ahead of 2023 at CER (reported -3%) driven by a +2% contribution from acquisitions and organic -1%. As expected, organic growth returned in the later part of the year (Q4 +2%, +11% sequentially) and the order book has reverted to normalised levels of c.4.5 months’ sales, which – combined with a continuing strong pipeli
Companies: discoverIE Group PLC
Invinity’s update on discussions with strategic investors reveals interest from multiple parties. While this has slightly delayed finalising an agreement it increases the potential for a better outcome. Although details are unknown at this stage, we think there is enough in the statement to be comfortable that any agreements will be consistent with the company’s strategy of growing market share in core markets and using a licencing and royalty model in other markets.
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Severfield’s full-year results to March will be ‘slightly above’ the Board’s expectations, according to today’s trading update, with net debt significantly better. We maintain our PBT estimates for both forecast years, which are ahead of consensus, but reduce our net debt for FY24E. Record orders were boosted by the steel specialist’s European operations, after last year’s Voortman acquisition, while the Indian JV has seen ‘another step up in profitability’. The group has also launched its first
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