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14 Aug 2024
Still in a tough spot

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Still in a tough spot
Salzgitter AG (SZG:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
14 Aug 2024 -
Author:
Gresser Tristan TG | Liu Mavis ML -
Pages:
12 -
Salzgitter remains in a tough spot (-45% YTD) as the steelmaker continues to suffer from a more volatile product mix (plate/tube) and over-exposure to a lagging German economy (~50% of group sales). Decarbonization capex is rising and should put increasing pressure on the balance sheet. Positively, more restructuring is in the cards and the flexibility on SALCOS should be welcomed. We even expect price hikes in the near-term in Europe. But that''s not enough to change our view as we revise our EBITDA/FCF estimates lower and cut our TP. Reiterate Underperform.
Plate/pipe business continues to underperform, non-steel businesses offer some support
While Aurubis and Technology should offer continued support into H2, plate/pipe profitability should remain under severe pressure while flat-rolled volumes/margins should also further moderate. Net-net, we cut our FY24 EBITDA forecasts by -19% to EUR 445m, at the midrange of management''s new guidance. Positively, the Steel Processing business should start benefiting from new orders towards year-end, reinforcing our expectations of a marked improvement into FY25.
FCF outlook remains problematic even as management cuts spending
With additional restructuring in the cards, management is also keen to preserve cash and has postponed some investments. With EUR 850m in net spending expected this year, net debt should almost treble and near the EUR 1.0b mark as working capital proves less supportive than hoped. Positively, management also opened the door to less capital-intensive decarbonization options, while portfolio optimization (MST sale to close in Q3, HKM) should also remain a priority.
We cut our TP to EUR 15/sh (from EUR 16.5/sh); reiterate Underperform rating
The FCF pressure is still a clear drag on valuation, despite Salzgitter''s success in securing subsidies (EUR 170m to come in H2). The lack of visibility, highlighted by the painful guidance cut, neutralises the value argument in our view. It is...