Watershed complete, growth strategy in play

Fluence Corporation (ASX:FLC) provides water and wastewater treatment, and reuse solutions, for the municipal, commercial, and industrial markets worldwide. The company has a proven suite of products and expertise, both proprietary and otherwise, which it has used to deliver more than 850 projects globally. After some historical missteps, FLC has now been completely rejuvenated through the appointment of a highly regarded and proven US-based management team and reinvigorated board. The company

Fluence Corporation - Good progress and guidance unchanged

Q1 saw revenue substantially beat our estimates and EBITDA turn positive. Some regions and products have been affected by COVID-19, but FY20 sales guidance remains intact and we leave our numbers unchanged. The company is on track to receive a cash payment of over $34m from its Ivory Coast contract in Q2. Receipt of this payment is not explicitly factored into our forecast and should address balance sheet concerns.

Fluence Corporation - Contrasting trends continue

The contrasting trends observed in Q3 continued into Q4. While Custom Engineering Solutions (CES) sales stalled, Smart Product Solutions (SPS) grew substantially (doubling q-o-q). Guidance for SPS to rise ‘at least’ 20% in FY20 appears prudent given current uncertainties over China. However, it probably understates the commercial progress made in the last six months. We trim our FY20 top-line forecast, but with financial closure on the Ivory Coast contract achieved, Fluence should still be EBITD

Fluence Corporation - Financial close for Ivory Coast

Fluence has announced financial close on its Ivory Coast project. While there was little doubt this would be achieved at some point, it reduces uncertainty and enables at least US$20m in revenue to be recognised for work already completed. The precise timing of this revenue recognition is still unclear. Apportioning some or all of the US$20m to Q419 would significantly boost Fluence’s chances of delivering Q419 guidance (EBITDA profitability).

Fluence Corporation - Contrasting trends

Fluence’s Q319 results reflected contrasting trends. Further delays to Custom Engineering Solutions (CES) contracts lead us to cut our forecasts again, but Smart Product Solutions (SPS) is on track. Significantly, Fluence secured two new large Aspiral deals in China – if these ramp up as we anticipate, SPS revenue could double to more than US$50m in FY20e. If we add this to the existing CES contract base, Fluence is close to the revenue run-rate it needs to reach EBITDA break-even and cash gener

Fluence Corporation - Cash call

Fluence has raised A$36m (US$25m) through a placement of 81.8m shares at A$0.44 (a 12% discount to the closing price on Wednesday, 16 October). The company indicates the proceeds will fund the expansion of MABR capacity in China, growth into new (unspecified) geographic territories and will ensure it has sufficient capital on hand to meet CES (Custom Engineering Solutions) project guarantees. The raise has been supported by existing shareholders plus new Australian institutional investors.

Fluence Corporation - Further progress in China

Fluence has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to deliver over 250 Aspiral wastewater treatment units to a Chinese partner (Kaitian) and is establishing a local final assembly facility in Yiyang to meet this demand. This is its second high-volume contract in China and, following the recent SUBRE order, provides evidence of both the significant potential of this market and the progress Fluence is making. With a market cap of c US$150m, the full value of this opportunity is not currently r

Fluence Corporation - A quieter Q2

Following a record Q1, Fluence had a quieter Q2. A shortfall in new recurring deals and delays at San Quintin lead us to trim our forecasts. Nevertheless, we see a recovery in H2. With a record backlog, healthy prospects in China and the Ivory Coast project set to ramp, growth should rebound. The commitment to reach positive EBITDA in Q4 remains intact.

Fluence Corporation - $10m desalination contract win

Following an extremely healthy Q1 for bookings (see Exceptional bookings growth), Fluence has announced another large custom engineered solution (CES) win. We make no changes to our estimates at this point, but the win should improve confidence that FY19 figures are achievable.

Fluence Corporation - Exceptional bookings growth

In a typically quiet quarter, Fluence enjoyed exceptional bookings. Aside from the US$188m CES (custom engineered solution) win in Ivory Coast, it also secured a $20m contract in Egypt and a further ITEST deal. Revenue rose 20% y-o-y and the gross cash balance was $24m ($14.7m outflow). Forecasting CES deals are hard and we trim FY19 sales by 10% to reflect a more cautious view on further big wins boosting FY19 numbers, but the company still expects EBITDA breakeven during Q419 and FY20 estimate

Fluence Corporation - 'Landmark' EUR165m contract win

The award of a €165m (US$188m) contract to provide water treatment to Abidjan, the largest city in Ivory Coast, is transformative in our view. This turnkey project will supply 150,000m3/day of water to 4.7 million people and include a range of treatment solutions. The win establishes Fluence as a supplier of large, innovative solutions and leads us to double our FY20 adjusted EPS forecast to US$c3.8. Despite organic revenue growth in FY19 and FY20 of well over 50%, the share price implies an FY2

Fluence Corporation - 'Landmark' EUR165m contract win

The award of a €165m (US$188m) contract to provide water treatment to Abidjan, the largest city in Ivory Coast, is transformative in our view. This turnkey project will supply 150,000m3/day of water to 4.7 million people and include a range of treatment solutions. The win establishes Fluence as a supplier of large, innovative solutions and leads us to double our FY20 adjusted EPS forecast to US$c3.8. Despite organic revenue growth in FY19 and FY20 of well over 50%, the share price implies an FY2

Fluence Corporation - Delivering on a demanding target

An impressive Q4 (73% y-o-y organic revenue growth) saw Fluence deliver on its FY18 target. Demand for its higher-margin smart product solution (SPS) remains strong with revenues expected to ‘at least’ double y-o-y in FY19. Its target of EBITDA breakeven by Q419 is reaffirmed and our profit forecasts are largely unchanged. With $38m of net cash and growing evidence of execution, we believe investors can now focus on the long-term growth story.

Fluence Corporation - Debt facility in place for custom projects

Fluence has signed an agreement with an undisclosed US-based finance company for a $50m non-recourse debt facility specifically to fund the upfront build costs of custom projects. This pre-packaged source of funding accelerates its ability to secure and deliver these projects. On top of $23m net equity proceeds raised last month, it provides an additional source of financing for its expected growth.

Renold - Strong end to FY24: EPS up 11%. Robust FY25: EPS up 27.6%

The FY24 year-end update is very upbeat signalling trading being materially ahead of expectations, with a better-than-expected profit out turn and stronger cash generation. It continues to strengthen margins through efficiencies and investment in modern equipment. The order book remains close to record levels providing a robust view of future forecasts. In FY24E we upgrade EPS by 11% and in FY25E a significant upgrade of 27.6%. It looks capable of declaring a dividend in FY25 as well as manageme

Morning Note – 16 April 2024

Q1 Operating Results

Another Good Year of Diversified Growth with More to Come in 2024 CCapital have released their Q1 operating results. Overall, revenue has come in slightly lower than expected at $80.2m vs TamE of $85.9m but is largely tracking in line with our FY24 annual estimate and we note the company has maintained guidance. Drilling revenue for this quarter was impacted by a fall in utilisaztion rates as well as general remobilisation geographically but we expect a strong recovery throughout the year as k

Billington Holdings - Record result boosts dividend; forecasts upgraded

FY23 results show very strong growth over FY22, driven by strong Structural Steel activity, with results slightly ahead of upgraded profit expectations, while stronger than expected cash flow resulted in an unexpectedly generous dividend of 33p (offering a FY23 yield of 7.0%). The group now has net cash of £22.1m and is debt free and is therefore in a strong position for potential M&A activity. Following the recent £90m of new orders to increase the order book to record levels we conservatively

Plant Health Care - China distribution with AMVAC

Plant Health Care announced it has signed a distribution agreement with AMVAC, an American Vanguard Company, to support commercialisation of novel fertiliser products incorporating Plant Health Care's Harpinαβ in China starting in 2024. The novel product combines Harpinαβ technology with an AMVAC fertiliser and is expected to help growers improve crop quality and yield as part of an integrated and environmentally responsible crop production programme. AMVAC continues to evaluate Plant Health Car

Morning Note – 15 April 2024

discoverIE - Back to organic growth

discoverIE’s March year-end update confirms a strong operational performance in challenging markets. Following two years when sales increased by +48%, FY 2024 Group sales were +1% ahead of 2023 at CER (reported -3%) driven by a +2% contribution from acquisitions and organic -1%. As expected, organic growth returned in the later part of the year (Q4 +2%, +11% sequentially) and the order book has reverted to normalised levels of c.4.5 months’ sales, which – combined with a continuing strong pipeli

Severfield - Multiple positives should excite investors

Severfield’s trading update indicates that FY23 results are expected to slightly exceed market expectations and the company ends the year with a record UK and Europe order book. Furthermore, with a positive trading outlook and net debt coming in lower than expected, Severfield has announced a £10m share buyback, highlighting the cash-generative nature of the company and management’s confidence in its position. The stock trades on an FY25 P/E of less than 6x and yields 7%, which we believe appear

Warns on brine supply costs

SP Angel . Morning View . Copper prices hold higher as China processing fees fall below $0/t amid low feedstock availability

PROGRESSIVE: Severfield: Targeted acquisition strategy aids growth path

Acquisitions have been an important element of Severfield management’s growth strategy, with the aim of adding new products, sectors and regions to what we have identified as exciting long-term organic opportunities. In this Spotlight report, we focus on the group’s targeted M&A approach, highlighting three significant deals.

LIBERUM: Severfield: Erratum: Better EPS and cashflow, and buyback

Invinity Energy Systems - Update on Strategic Investment

Invinity’s update on discussions with strategic investors reveals interest from multiple parties. While this has slightly delayed finalising an agreement it increases the potential for a better outcome. Although details are unknown at this stage, we think there is enough in the statement to be comfortable that any agreements will be consistent with the company’s strategy of growing market share in core markets and using a licencing and royalty model in other markets.

PROGRESSIVE: Severfield: Step change in European and Indian outlook

Severfield’s full-year results to March will be ‘slightly above’ the Board’s expectations, according to today’s trading update, with net debt significantly better. We maintain our PBT estimates for both forecast years, which are ahead of consensus, but reduce our net debt for FY24E. Record orders were boosted by the steel specialist’s European operations, after last year’s Voortman acquisition, while the Indian JV has seen ‘another step up in profitability’. The group has also launched its first

Clean and competitive fertiliser