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Costs move ahead of revenues
27 Oct 16
Q3 revenues were up +9% (+9% at cc) to USD4,598m but gross profit margin weakened 70bp to 32.0%. EBITDA increased +9% to USD867m and net income attributable to shareholders strongly increased +27% to €333m. Operating CF clearly dropped 24% to USD439m, primarily driven by a swing in NWC (USD-164m after USD54m). Investing CF remained in the same territory (USD-273m after USD-281m), but FCF declined from US$298m to US$166m. Management confirmed FX guidance, expecting sales to grow +7-10% at constant currency and net income to shareholders to improve 15-20% excluding acquisitions in 2015 and 2016 based on an adjusted net income of USD1,057m.
Good old Dialysis Service made the pace
02 Aug 16
Total revenues rose +5% (+7% at constant currencies (cc)) to USD4,420m and the gross profit margin was up from 31.7% to 30.9% in Q2 16. EBITDA increased +15% to USD835m and net income attributable to shareholders clearly improved by +22% to USD294m. Operating CF jumped +76% to USD678m, mainly driven by a swing in NWC from USD-106m to USD114m due to adjustments impacting the invoicing and timing of working capital items. Days sales outstanding declined from 74 days (Q1 16) to 70 days. Investing CF moved from USD-269m to USD-319m, primarily burdened by higher capex. Management confirmed recently its guidance, expecting sales to grow +7-10% at constant currency and net income to shareholders to improve 15-20% excluding acquisitions in 2015 and 2016 based on an adjusted net income of USD1,057m.
A shining US
03 May 16
Group sales rose +6% (+9% at CC) to USD4,205m and the gross profit margin strongly improved from 29.9% to 31.3%. EBIT increased +7% to USD540m and net profit attributable to shareholders came in at USD228m after USD210m. Operating CF melted from USD447m to USD180m, hit by a swing in NWC (USD-299m after USD7m), which was triggered by an adjustment in invoicing and the timing of payroll payments in the US. DSO increased to 74 days (Q1 15: 71; Q4 15: 71). Investing CF moved from USD-208m to USD-337m, seeing higher capex (above D/A) and acquisition-related costs. FCF swung from USD239m to USD-157m. Management recently confirmed guidance, expecting sales to grow +7-10% at constant currency and net income to shareholders to improve 15-20%, excluding acquisitions in 2015 and 2016 based on an adjusted net income of USD1,057m.
FY guidance barely met excluding one-offs
24 Feb 16
FMC reported +6% higher FY revenues (to USD16,738m) and the gross profit margin rose 30bp to 31.9%. EBITDA saw a +3% improvement (to USD3,044m), but the respective margin dropped from 18.7% to 18.2%. Net income attributable to shareholders came in at USD1,029m. Operating CF improved +5% to USD1,960m, driven by higher net income and lower NWC outflow. Investing CF dropped from USD-2,690m to USD-1,001m primarily due to lower acquisition costs (USD—317m after USD1,779m). FCF swung from USD-829m to USD959m. Management proposes a €0.02 higher dividend of €0.80 per share at the AGM on 12 May 2016. In FY 2016, management expects revenues to increase by 7-10% at constant currency and net income attributable to shareholders to improve 15-20% excluding acquisitions in 2015 and 2016 based on an adjusted net income of USD1,057m. The annual report should be available within the next few weeks.
Dialysis costs up in US and strong FX headwinds
29 Oct 15
Q3 sales were up +3% (organic: +6%) to US$4,231m and the gross profit margin was up +1.4pp to 32.7%. EBITDA rose +3% to US$793m and net profit attributable to shareholders weakened by 3% to US$262m. Operating CF dropped 19% to US$579m due to lower NWC inflows. Investing CF benefited from significantly lower acquisition costs, moving up from US$-837m to US$281m. Management confirmed 2015 guidance, always based on cc, expecting revenue growth of 5-7% and net income to increase 0-5%. In 2016, revenue is expected to increase by around 7-10% at cc and net income attributable to shareholders by 15-20%.
EMEA becoming a challenge in US$ terms
30 Jul 15
Unexpected margin drop in EMEA, but Q2 revenues were up +9% (+15% at cc) to US$4,199m although the gross profit margin weakened from 31.6% to 30.9%. EBITDA was broadly unchanged at US$728m and net profit attributable to shareholders was up +3% to US$241m. Operating CF dropped -14% to US$385 burdened by a higher NWC outflow, whereas investing CF moved from US$-515m to US$-269m helped by lower acquisition costs. FCF after investing activities swung from US$-66m to US$116m. Management confirmed 2015 guidance for revenue growth of 5-7% and net income expected to increase by 0-5%. 2016 is now seen as more moderate with a revenue increase of around 7-10% (9-12%) and net income attributable to shareholders is expected at +15-20% (unchanged).
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Panmure Morning Note 27-10-2016
27 Oct 16
CareTech announces that trading to September 2016 is in line with market expectations. The company continues to trade at a significant discount to peers, we believe this is unjustified given the consistent performance in recent periods, including double digit EBITDA growth and high dividend yield. We maintain our BUY recommendation and 380p price target.
25 Oct 16
"London’s blue chip index is called some 15 points higher during this morning’s opening trade, which should see the FTSE-100 test the psychologically important 7000 level once again. The US markets, whose principal indices all closed higher overnight, remain Europe’s main influence as investors track the territory’s latest round of deals and earnings. While broadly pleasing investors, technology issues continue to lead the way which resulted in the NASDAQ registering a full 1% rise on good trading volumes. Against this background, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President, Charles Evans, delivered a speech in which he predicted three US interest-rate rises before the end of 2017, while effectively suggesting that the central bank should allow its inflation target to be overshot before responding with confidence strangling hikes. Generally, however, his forecasts are not far from the current consensus, although he refused to be drawn of the timing of the first move which the markets continue to anticipate in the form of a 25bp move being delivered before the 2016 year-end. By comparison, Asia ended mixed, with the Shanghai Composite finishing unchanged as a weaker Yuan was countered by gains in resource stocks; the latter also boosted the ASX’s commodity-heavy index while a weaker Yen resulted in the Nikkei closing the session with the region’s strongest gain. No major UK macro data are due for release today, which means that traders will eyes will remain focussed on the US disclosure of consumer confidence and housing figures due this afternoon, with neither the ECB President Mario Draghi’s scheduled lecture or the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney’s appearance before the Lord’s Committee, expected to provide significant new market-sensitive information. Earnings or trading updates are expected from Anglo American Carpetright (AAL.L), GKN (GKN.L), National Express (NEX.L) and Whitbread (WTB.L). Significant quarterly earnings also due from US majors due this afternoon include Apple and General Motors. " - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
FY 2016 results
17 Oct 16
Full-year results were 7% ahead of the August trading update. Revenue growth of 27% was driven by Vitamin D, up c55%, and sterling's depreciation, which contributed c11% to growth. A higher final dividend together with a 20p special dividend implies a combined yield of 2.9%. Management is confident that Siemens will launch its troponin-based assay contributing to and largely replacing lost NT proBNP royalties in FY 2018. We have increased our target price to 1450p to reflect a 5% EPS upgrade to 2017 earnings and introduced a 2018 forecast, calling for EPS of 72.7p.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 26-10-2016
26 Oct 16
Verona Pharma has been awarded its second Venture and Innovation Award from the UK Cystic Fibrosis Trust for the development of RPL554 in Cystic Fibrosis (CF). The award signals the significant potential for RPL554 to be developed as a novel treatment for Cystic Fibrosis. Preliminary data supports the molecule’s potential utility in this indication, demonstrating RPL554’S ability to activate an ion channel known to be dysfunctional in CF. The award will support a Phase IIa clinical trial expected to commence in H1 2017. Preparations have also started for Phase IIb trials of RPL554 as a nebulised treatment for COPD with clinical dosing expected to commence in Q2 2017. We remain extremely encouraged by the expanding opportunity of RPL554 and Verona Pharma’s future prospects.