3Q17 results; cash flow ahead of expectations

3Q17 production of 36,133 boe/d was slightly ahead of GMPFE estimate of 35,550 boe/d and in line with the street at 36,250 boe/d. Production was relatively flat QoQ due to downtime and restrictions. However, October production was ~41,000 boe/d as ATH returned to more normalized volumes. As such, we have aligned our 4Q17 forecasts to reflect this. CFPS (f.d.) of $0.07/share was ahead of our estimate of $0.05/share and the street estimate of $0.05/share. This was largely driven by better than e

Commodity Price Update – Impact on Integrateds, Large Cap E&P, Oilsands

3Q16e WTI prices look set to average ~US$44.50/bbl vs. our $50.00/bbl prior estimate. We have also reduced our 4Q16e WTI forecasts by US$5.00 to US$50.00/ bbl, but left our 2016e+ oil & gas price deck largely unchanged. For the second time in three months we are increasing our forecasts for Canadian refined product premiums relative to New York Harbor.

RECEIVES FINAL PAYMENT FROM BRION (PETROCHINA)

Athabasca announced that it has received the final payment ($139 mm) from Brion Energy Corporation (PetroChina) for consideration of the sale of ATH's remaining 40% stake in Dover in 2014, thus bringing to a conclusion the relationship between Athabasca and PetroChina that began with the announcement of the $1.9 billion oilsands JV transaction in late 2009.

2Q16 Results, Increased Montney Spending

Recent transactions (Murphy JV, bitumen royalty sale, term loan repayment) improve ATH’s liquidity ahead of a $550 mm debt maturity next year, with possible partial repayment YE16e. Hangingstone appears on track to near nameplate capacity by year-end. The 2H16e budget increased $60 mm to drill 12 new Placid Montney wells. Our estimates have been updated in lieu of new Light Oil division guidance for 2016e and beyond. Upgrading to Outperform. The shares are being discounted due to uncertainty o

2Q16 RESULTS, UPDATED GUIDANCE

Market Impact: Neutral. Quarterly disclosures were highlighted by an additional $60 mm added to Light Oil capex for 2016e, while perhaps unsurprisingly, production guidance was lowered due to disruptions at Hangingstone from wildfires, but ATH continues to expect nameplate capacity to be hit by year end. 2Q16 production (11.1 mboe/d) was slightly ahead of our expectations and CFPS slightly below (-$0.07/share diluted).

Impact on Integrateds, Large Cap E&P, Oilsands

Commodity Price Update – Impact on Integrateds, Large Cap E&P, Oilsands

AGM REVEALS DISSIDENT SHAREHOLDER ACTIONS

Athabasca held its AGM yesterday in Calgary. Voting for election o f directors was notable in that five out of the six directors received less than 70% "Votes For". Athabasca noted that a large individual shareholder appears to have been "working alone or jointly and in concert with others" to unlawfully solicit proxies. We believe the large individual shareholder Athabasca is referencing is former CEO Sveinung Svarte, who attended the AGM and voiced numerous criticisms during the question and a

SELLING GORR ON OILSANDS ASSETS FOR $129 MM AND REPAYING US$221 MM FIRST LIEN NOTES

Market Impact: Positive. ATH has sold a GORR on its oilsands assets, which does not kick in until ~US$75/bbl WTI, for $129 mm (~$0.31/share dil.), and repaid its US$221 mm first lien term loan.

1Q16 Results

1Q16 CFPS of -$0.10/share was lower than expectations, due to lower realized rices and production than forecasted.

1Q16 RESULTS

Slightly negative as production and cash flow were slightly behind expectations. There is more turnover at the Board level. The JV has not yet closed.

Integrateds, Oilsands & Large Caps Commodity Price Update

We are updating our estimates to reflect FirstEnergy’s updated price deck for oil, natural gas, and refining crack spreads.

4Q15 & Year-End Update

4Q15 results were more or less as expected. Apples-to-apples guidance for 2016e was essentially unchanged, although closing of the Murphy JV transaction is now expected in 2Q16 instead of March. Repaying and refinancing debt remains a focus for Management in 2016e. Hangingstone bitumen requires less diluent than typical Athabasca bitumen. Our NAV now reflects better price realizations than previously assumed. Target price reduced to $1.15/share, to reflect our updated Core NAV before ascribing v

4Q15 RESULTS

Market Impact: Neutral.

Reduced Oil Price Forecasts – Impact on Integrateds, Large Cap E&P, Oilsands

With the reduction to our oil price deck (see our commodities analyst Martin King’s note), we have made significant reductions to our target prices for this group of companies. Notably, we have taken our rankings for Imperial Oil and Suncor to Underperform, as we believe the equity valuations for these two companies are implying much, much higher oil prices, AND much better refining margins, going forward, than we believe is reasonable to assume at this time. We do not believe these two stocks w

NextSource Materials - Initiation

NextSource is uniquely positioned to build a leading vertically integrated position, ex China, in the supply of Lithium-ion battery anode material which is essential for the Energy Transition. The company is commissioning phase 1 of its world-class Molo graphite mine in Madagascar and is in the final permitting process for its first Battery Anode Facility (BAF) to be located in Mauritius. The company is backed by Vision Blue, established by Sir Mick Davis, former CEO of Xstrata. On our calculat

Falcon Oil & Gas - Funding a Multi TCF Resource

Falcon has raised gross proceeds of US$8.9m via a placing and subscription at a price of 6p/share and the granting of overriding royalty interests. The net proceeds, together with Falcon’s existing cash resources (cUS$4.3m) will be used to fund Falcon’s net share of 2024 capex (cUS$9m) associated with the 40MMscf/d Shenandoah South Pilot Project, including the drilling, stimulation, and flow testing of two 10,000ft horizontal wells. The funds will also enable Falcon to fund its share of the cost

Initiation of Coverage - Critical raw materials for Europe’s green transition

Beowulf is advancing a portfolio of projects in Europe focussed on metals and minerals that are critical to enabling the continent’s transition to a greener economy. Awareness of Europe’s over-reliance on external supply sources for such vital raw materials is driving growing political support for ‘home-grown’ projects. Beowulf is strategically positioned to leverage this fast-evolving trend – its Kallak project in Sweden holds potential to deliver high-quality iron ore to lower the carbon-inten

Morning Note – 22 April 2024

Morning Note – 24 April 2024

Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Constrained test rate of 14 mboe/d at Mopane-1X. 10+ bn boe in place confirmed.

• Multiple tests over multiple zones in multiple horizons were run at the Mopane-1X exploration well. The flows achieved during the well test reached the maximum allowed limits of 14 mboe/d. The flow rate was constrained by the size of the available surface facilities. • The AVO-1 horizon encountered at Mopane-1X and Mopane-2X are in the same pressure regime, suggesting that the entire area (8 km diameter) between the two wells is connected. Overall, in the Mopane complex alone, and before dril

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 44p) - Closing of expanded bank facilities

LIBERUM: Ferrexpo: Production triples

Jubilee Metals - Operational Update Q3 FY2024

Jubilee today reports its Q3 and third quarter operational results from its expanding operations in Zambia (copper) and South Africa (chrome and PGM). South Africa is on a growth trajectory with record chrome production of 409kt in the quarter (Q2 FY2024 381kt) and a monthly record in March of 145kt and production YTD of 1.13Mt (0.94Mt). Jubilee is well underway to its annual target capacity of 2,1Mt/yr especially with the new 300kt/yr chrome plant at Thutse expected to be operational in August

SP Angel Morning View: Gold prices slide following profit taking as traders look to US data

SP Angel Morning View: Copper prices hit $9,700/t as China smelts concentrates for zero charge Tc/Rc

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 April 24

24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

Transition to Mining Operator

Adriatic Metals has announced their transition from mining contractor to mining operator at Rupice. The transition is expected to continue to benefit the development and productivity rates being achieved at Rupice mine, as well as result in cost efficiencies and improved HSE standards. The company has also announced a short-term loan facility with Orion of $25m, that is drawable at the option of the company in Q3/4 this year.

Alien Metals - Hancock Project, Mining Lease Granted

Alien today reports intraday that the Western Australian Government has granted a mining licence for the Hancock iron ore project for a 21-year term. The granting of the mining licence is the latest milestone delivered by Alien as it advances the project towards development and production.

I3 Energy (I3E LN) - Canada royalty assets sale

I3 has announced the sale of the majority of its royalty interests in Canada, for US$24.8m cash. This allows the company to fully repay amounts drawn on its debt facility and create a working capital surplus, giving I3 significant additional funding flexibility going forward