Morning Note – 26 March 2024

Morning Note – 25 January 2024

Time Finance - Time to celebrate another strong set of interims

Time Finance has released a strong set of interim results to the period ending 30 November 2023. The origination capabilities were firing away with 29% YoY growth to £47m, taking the gross lending book to a new record of £189m. The quality of the book remains uncompromisingly high with invoice and hard-asset financing now making up over 70% of the book and arrears flat at 6%. Revenues increased 19% to £15.7m and PBT increased 35% to £2.7m, reflecting the operational gearing from the organic top-

Morning Note – 19 December 2023

Morning Note – 9 November 2023

Time Finance - Trading Ahead of Expectations (Again)

Time Finance has released an RNS announcing it is trading ahead of expectations. The business has continued to demonstrate its ability to grow the gross book through the market cycle, reaching £180m at the end of October, and bodes well for the longevity of the growth story. Management continues to prioritise the high-quality growth in secured lending resulting in arrears remaining flat. The board now believe that FY24E PBT will be not less than £5.4m compared to our current forecasts of £5m, an

Morning Note – 26 September 2023

Time Finance - Timed to Perfection

Time has released a positive set of FY23A annual results and a Q1/24A quarterly statement. They both show the business continues to perform well with strong loan book expansion, profit growth and falling arrears. FY23A revenue was up 17% to £27.6m, PBT was up 281% to £4.2m which was slightly ahead of prior guidance of £4.1m. In Q1/24A, the gross book hit a new record high of £175.8m. Time looks extremely cheap given it is trading on an FY25E PE of just 5.6x. We derive our 1-year price target of

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 19 Sep 23

19th September 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment ob

Cenkos: Time Finance plc -- Outperforming Time and Time Again

Time Finance released a full year trading update exceeding expectations with revenue of £27.4m (£26m forecast) and PBT of £4.1m (£3.6m forecast). We have upgraded FY24E PBT by 9% to £5.0m and released FY25E forecasts which show 10% YoY revenue growth to £33.1m and over 25% PBT growth to £6.3m. The valuation remains compelling with an FY23E P/TNAV of 0.7x and an FY25E PE of 5.1x.

Cenkos: Time Finance plc -- A New Quarter, a New Upgrade

Time Finance has released a positive Q3/23A update for the period ending 28 February 2023. It follows a strong first half and shows continued momentum in the business. We are upgrading our FY23E revenue forecasts from £25.7m to £26m and FY23E PBT from £3.2m to £3.6m. Time's valuation looks deeply discounted on an FY24E P/E ratio of 5.8x and P/TNAV of 0.6x. We expect a material re-rating as management continue to deliver profitable growth and we believe upside risks to forecasts remain dominant.

Cenkos: Time Finance plc -- Upgrade to Forecasts

Time Finance has released its interim results for the period ending 30 November 2022, in-line with its December trading update. As previously highlighted, the half was incredibly strong for the group and has given them a great platform for growth in the coming quarters. We are upgrading our FY23E revenue forecast by 3% from £25m to £25.7m and FY23E PBT by 16% from £2.8m to £3.2m. The percentage increases show the desirable operational gearing in the business with c60% gross margins and no additi

Cenkos: Time Finance plc -- Core Book Strategy Building Well

Time Finance has released a trading update for the half-year ending 30 November 2022, showing another robust set of results. Following the restructuring during FY22A, FY23E is shaping up to be a strong year for the business. The strategy of focusing on its core book, and in particular the secured lending divisions, is reaping dividends in terms of both book size and quality of the book. Time remains on track to hit our full-year estimates and we leave forecasts unchanged. Time's valuation looks

Hybridan Small Cap Feast 19/10/22

Dish of the day Joiners: No joiners today. Leavers: No leavers today. What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?** Ithaca Energy, a UK independent exploration and production company focused on the UK North Sea, intends to join the Premium Segment of the Main Market. Ithaca Energy is one of the largest independent oil and gas companies in the UKCS, ranking 2nd by resources and 3rd by production. During the six months ended 30 June 2022, Ithaca Energy's average daily production (oil and gas) on a net work

IP Group - Several potential portfolio catalysts on the horizon

IP Group’s NAV declined by 13% in total return (TR) terms in FY23, affected by continued soft valuations across venture capital (VC) markets, as well as funding delays at some of its holdings. That said, management indicated that many of IP Group’s portfolio companies continued to make strong progress. Its maturing portfolio offers a number of potential NAV triggers and is now available at a wide 59% discount to NAV. We note that, as at end-2023, only 14% of IP Group’s portfolio was valued based

Hardman & Co Insight: 2023 was an annus horribilis for Quoted UK Infrastructure and Renewable Energy

The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no

Meet, beat, repeat

FY23 - preparing for two high impact wells this year

LIBERUM: The Liberum Leisure Digest: NLW increase - pricing power is key

The Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2024

Feature article: Steady as she goes, but could be better: A review of investment company liquidity since 2016 Liquidity is the lifeblood of equity markets. The measurement of liquid asset availability to a market or company is a way of gauging a market’s health. This article builds on our previous work, which analysed the liquidity data for non-financial trading companies, by applying the same analytical techniques to the investment companies (IC) space. We analyse liquidity for ICs as a whol

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 16/04/2024

16th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radical Limited for

Braemar - Diversification paying dividends

Braemar’s FY24 trading update was in line with expectations, with revenues of c £150m and underlying operating profit of c £18m. Underlying operations continue to expand and diversify and the company remains well-positioned to drive its future growth strategy. The trading outlook is promising and Braemar should be able to leverage its strong balance sheet in pursuit of strategic growth. We have maintained our underlying estimates for FY24 and FY25, but edge down the valuation based on the lower

hVIVO - FY 2023 results, revenue in-line, margin better, future is bright

hVIVO has delivered FY 2023A results in-line with the 30 January 2024 TU, with total customer revenues of £56m, growth of 16% versus 2022A. Other income related to tax credits added another £2.6m. 2024 revenue guidance of £62m has been reiterated, representing 11% growth over 2023A, and ahead of the £60m that we had previously forecast. The company has good visibility with the 2024 figure, with 90% already being covered by the existing orderbook (stands at £80m at the end of 2023), as well as in

UK Equities: Overlooked, oversold, and over here

In this note we look at the gap between perception and reality in the UK equity market, the opportunities and threats in the economic and market outlook, and the emerging consensus that the valuation discount versus other major markets is at or close to an inflection point. We consider the benefits of UK equity strategies both for income investors and for those seeking exposure to the higher growth potential of smaller and mid-cap companies.

Trinity Delta Lighthouse: Avacta

Trinity Delta view: The proprietary pre|CISION platform is key to Avacta’s investment case, hence updated data that continue to support key hypotheses for AVA6000 are reassuring. Future efficacy data from studies planned to start in H224 will be key, and could also help to more broadly validate pre|CISION. The recent £31.1m fundraise (March 2024 Lighthouse), which provides a cash runway of c 24 months ie into early 2026, will be used to advance the therapeutics pipeline, in particular AVA6000, a

Avacta Group - AACR update

As pre-announced, Avacta has presented the results of the 3-weekly P1 Arm 1 study of its AVA6000 lead clinical asset, based on the pre|CISION™ drug development platform at the American Association for Cancer Research's annual general meeting. The update does not cover progress on the ongoing 2-weekly dosing study which is underway, and Avacta confirmed current guidance on timing including being on track to begin the dose expansion study in 2H24. There are compelling updates on the progress repor

Morning Note – 9 April 2024

LIBERUM: Agents of change: Evolving for modern demands

Allenby Capital: Deltic Energy - Update

Deltic Energy plc (DELT.L) has announced some positive news concerning its 50% interest in the Selene joint-venture with Shell UK Ltd. The announcement concerns a farm-out to Dana Petroleum Ltd of a 25% interest in Licence P2437 which contains the Selene prospect. The farm-out calls for Deltic retaining a highly meaningful 25% interest in one of the most interesting prospects in terms of risk profile and scale in the Southern North Sea (SNS) Basin while largely eliminating exposure to the cost o