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In line with expectations but costs are out of control
21 Oct 16
The company reported third quarter results. Total revenues increased 7.8% to €5.38bn. Cloud subscription & support revenues grew 28.4% to €769m. We estimated an increase of 31.2% to €786m and the market around €787m. New cloud bookings (order entry) increased 24% to €265m. Software licence revenues grew 2% to €1.04bn (our estimate +3.5% to €1.04bn). Maintenance revenues increased surprisingly strong by 5.7% to €2.65bn (estimate: 2.2% to €2.56bn). EBIT, however, dropped by 9% to €1.1bn. We expected an EBIT increase of 10.5% to €1.3bn. Net income dropped 19% to €730m (estimate: +6.3% to €955m). Cloud subscription and support revenues grew 34% from €136m to €182m in the EMEA region, and were especially strong in Germany, France and the UK. In the Americas, cloud revenues increased 24% to €508m, and in Asia Pacific around 52% to €78m. In the third quarter, the company added 400 new SAP S/4 HANA customers (+40%). Around 4,100 customers are now using this cloud platform.
No read-through for SAP
01 Sep 16
Salesforce reported second quarter results ending in July. Revenues increased 25% to US$2.04bn. EBIT jumped 64.2% to US$32.5m and the EBIT margin improved from 1.2% to 1.6%. From an earnings perspective, the company is not really visible. Net income, however, jumped from a small loss to US$229.3m. Around US$205.3m was related to a tax benefit as a result of the release of a portion of the valuation allowance related to the acquisition of Demandware. Salesforce.com acquired Demandware for a total of US$2.6bn and was also bidding for Linkedin which was bought by Microsoft for a total of US$26.2bn. GAAP income turned from a loss of US$0.85m to a profit of US$229.6m. Non-GAAP related income increased 32.9% to US$170.4m or US$0.24 per share. This includes amortisation of purchased intangibles, share-based compensation and other unpleasant cost items. Business in the Americas contributed 73% to revenues, Europe 17% and Asia Pacific 10%. Management experienced some weaker demand at the end of the second quarter but still raised the full-year revenue guidance range to between US$8,275m and US$8,325m.
The world is not enough!
20 Jul 16
SAP reported a strong operating performance in Q2 16. Total revenues increased 5.4% to €5.2bn (our estimate: €5.3bn). Cloud revenues grew by 30.4% to €720m (our estimate: €722m). EBIT jumped 79.2% to €1.16bn which was also in line with our expectations. Our EBIT definition, however, differs from the company’s reported EBIT. We use IFRS numbers and include other operating expenses/income which is not part of the SAP calculation. Despite the strong cloud business, licence revenues grew by 6.2% to €1.04bn and maintenance revenues 2.6% to €2.6bn.
Times are changing
13 May 16
At the AGM, the shareholders approved the new compensation system for the executive board starting in 2016. The approval, however, was not so well explained as it should have been. Around 66.1% of the total capital or 812m shares/votes attended the AGM. Around 45.31% was against the new compensation system and 54.69% of the shareholders agreed. This is not a SAP-style approval. Nearly every topic on the agenda was approved by at least 95% of the attending shareholders or even more in the past. The good old days are over.
Licence growth below expectations
21 Apr 16
SAP reported final Q1 16 results. Revenues increased 5.1% to €4.72bn. The operating profit jumped 59% to €778m and the real EBIT margin increased from 10.9% to 16.5%. Total adjustments were reduced from €413m by €123m to €290m due to lower share-based payment expenses. In addition, the company faced additional non-operational expenses of €35m compared to €148m in Q1 15. These so-called non-operational expenses, mainly foreign currency exchange gains/losses, are excluded from SAP’s EBIT calculation. Total revenues in Germany increased 8%, in EMEA 5%, in the USA 10% but declined 7% in the rest of the Americas mainly in Brazil. Revenues in Asia Pacific remained stable, but increased 9% in Japan and declined 2% in other regions. According to management, business in China was the highlight with double-digit software revenue growth. Total cloud subscription and support revenues grew 35% to €677m; in EMEA 49%; 31% in the Americas and 27% in Asia Pacific. For SAP, the Americas are the largest cloud market with a total volume of €460m or 68% of total cloud revenues in Q1 16.
Cloud revenues up 33%, licence revenues down 12.4%!
11 Apr 16
The company reported preliminary Q1 16 results. Cloud subscriptions and support revenues increased 35.2% to €680m. Software support grew 4.3% to €2.56bn and licence revenues declined 12.4% to €610m. Real EBIT according to our definition grew 65.5% to €810m. The EBIT margin jumped from 10.9% to 17.1%. Net earnings per share grew 39% to €0.48 compared to €0.35 in Q1 15. According to management, business in Europe and Asia Pacific was solid. Business in Brazil suffered from economic uncertainties and business in North America experienced a slower start due to a strong fourth quarter.
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Upgrade on lower costs, pipeline strong
24 Oct 16
Fusionex’s year-end trading update indicates that revenues will be in line with market expectations (we estimate 16% revenue growth in FY16) and that a strong pipeline for GIANT 2016 should drive further momentum in FY17. The planned increase in sales, marketing and other investment to support adoption of GIANT has been more moderate than we forecast, meaning that EBITDA is expected to be significantly above consensus. We upgrade our FY16 EBITDA by MYR3.2m (83% but from a compressed level) to reflect this, while leaving our estimates for FY17 and FY18 unchanged.
N+1 Singer - NCC Group - Strong revenue but margins weaker in H1
20 Oct 16
NCC’s trading update for the four months to September shows continued strong revenue growth, but margin pressures in the first half mean that profit for the year will be more second half weighted than usual. Group revenue increased 36% in the period (+21% organic) with Assurance and Escrow both growing well (+25% and +4% respectively). The Assurance division has seen three unrelated large contract cancellations however, as well as some difficulties with some managed services renewals. We are not making any changes to our forecasts at this stage but now expect a significant second half weighting to profits. We remain supportive of the story but with the shares priced for perfection, we downgrade to Hold, with a target price of 353p (from 384p).
A slower ramp for GOV.UK Verify
20 Oct 16
Underlying trading was solid in H116. However the new GOV.UK Verify service is behind plan and we are pairing back our revenue estimates to reflect a slower ramp. Outperformance and deferred investment elsewhere mitigates the earnings impact of this in FY16, but we reduce EPS forecasts by 5% in FY17 and FY18. The business remains very well placed, but we believe that a period of share price consolidation is likely ahead of the transition to the new CEO, Chris Clark (ex-Experian) in April 2017.
N+1 Singer - Earthport - Traction continuing to build
26 Oct 16
Earthport has reported an in-line set of results for the full year to June’16. The group has delivered 89% growth in the number of transactions, resulting in payment volumes through the platform increasing to $11.8 billion. A FY’16 adj. EBITDA loss of £7.5m represents a strong HoH trajectory (H1 loss £5.3m, H2 loss £2.2m) and the group has reaffirmed its commitment to becoming cash generative in Q4’17. Earthport has proved that it can scale new customers quickly as well as extracting significant volume increases from existing customers. With multiple catalysts on the horizon and a strong start to the year already achieved, we believe the group is very well-placed to gain a significant share of the vast cross-border payments market.