Rating suspended

Arctic Securities has been advisor to the Schibsted Board of Directors and the company in relation to the acquisition of the eBay classifieds Group portfolio. The rating (previous Buy) and price target on Schibsted ASA as we previously issued have been temporarily suspended due to Arctic’s role in the transaction. We will revert with an update and our further view on the transaction once this temporarily period has ended.

Q2: Pulling through the crisis with solid results

Schibsted reported stronger than expected Q2 results, with strong cost execution in classifieds, News Media and ‘Growth’. The results support a gradual recovery in 2H/20. Adevinta makes up 77% of Schibsted’s valuation and the remainder is attractively priced. We reiterate our Buy rating and increase our TP to NOK 311 following estimate changes and changes to Adevinta’s current valuation. The focus the next weeks should likely be the outcome of eBay classifieds.

Q2 first read: Strong results

Excluding Adevinta(reported yesterday), Q2 revenues slightly were above … EBITDA was NOK 498m vs. consensus at NOK 272m and ARCe at 333m Improvements in classifieds, with recovery in most verticals in June Acquires Oikotie – positive as strengthen the Finnish classifieds position

Q2e: Showing some strength

While the most severe impact from Covid-19 will likely be seen in Q2, we view the current consensus estimates (Infront from May 28th) as too pessimistic. Schibsted’s online classifies sites have shown improvements by quarter end, and Distribution (package and food delivery) and Prisjakt should report solid growth. In addition, M&A on a Schibsted or Adevinta level remains an option. As such, we maintain our Buy rating.

Improved trends in Nordic classifieds

Nordic classifieds report improving trends, and Finn increased car ads The trends support our view of a V-shaped recovery once crisis abates And the most severe impact from Covid-19 in Q2, and improvements after A solution to eBay classifieds a potential catalyst for Schibsted

Q1: Look beyond near-term weakness

While the most severe impact from Covid-19 will likely be seen in Q2, we view the current valuation as attractive as it only reflects the ownership in Adevinta and Finn. We see several potential catalysts to unlock Schibsted’s stub value, including acquisitions for Schibsted/ Adevinta, and a sell-down of its Adevinta ownership stake plus strong cash flow potential once the crisis abates – and stronger growth prospects within Distribution (packages and food delivery).

Q1 first read: softer, but positive revenue mix

Excluding Adevinta (reported yesterday), Q1 revenues was broadly in-line …while EBITDA was 10% below consensus and 6% below our estimate Positive mix: classifieds slight better, newspapers/ Lendo/ Growth weaker Cost savings increased within News Media and lower investments in Lendo

Attractive valuation, despite COVID-19 impact

Schibsted reports Q1 results on May 6, where we expect the focus to be on the outlook for Q2/Q3 following COVID-19. We expect temporary weakness within Marketplaces and News Media, but improved growth in Distribution (HeltHjem, Morgenlevering). We maintain our Buy rating as we view Schibsted’s current valuation as attractive, only reflecting the ownership in Adevinta and Finn. A potential sell-down in Adevinta remains a long-term trigger.

Negative near-term impact from COVID-19

Schibsted announced yesterday that it is cancelling its previously announced DPS for 2019, and that COVID-19 is having a negative impact on classifieds (80% value stub ex Adevinta) and newspapers (8% of value stub). We cut our target price to NOK 227 following estimate cuts (- NOK 10/share) and a lower current valuation for Adevinta (- NOK 66/share). We maintain our Buy rating and view the current weakness as temporary as seen in previous downturns.

COVID-19 impact on Schibsted

In previous recessions Finn was modestly impacted, but newspapers more Higher online penetration than last recession - classifieds more cyclical? Marginal negative impact on Marketplaces, and positive on e-commerce Schibsted “stub” (excluding Adevinta) attractive at current valuation

Q4: Every cloud has a silver lining

Schibsted Q4 results were somewhat below estimates, but trends remain fairly intact from Q3. We continue to find the “stub” (excluding the Adevinta ownership) attractive. Also, M&A optionality over time for Adevinta remains a long-term catalyst that we believe investors put little value on. In the coming months, we expect Schibsted to pursue online classifieds acquisitions in the Nordics to strengthen its Nordic classifieds segment. We maintain our Buy rating.

Q4 first read: softer, but with positive mix

Excluding Adevinta (reported yesterday), Q4 revenues was in-line ..while EBITDA was 9% below estimates. Positive mix: Classifieds solid, but newspapers, Lendo and HQ weaker Outlook comments supportive for estimates

A step in the right direction

Schibsted reports Q4 results on February 13. We maintain our Buy rating, and find the valuation for the Schibsted “stub” (excluding the Adevinta ownership) as attractive. The stub is now worth ~NOK 87/share which we model alone is justified by only the valuation for the classifieds site Finn in Norway and the newspapers. We adjust our target price to NOK 309 (292) following the share price increase for Adevinta and minor estimate changes.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 21 Feb 23

21 February 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objec

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 06 Mar 23

6 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objective

New Forecasts: breaking through

With FY22 in line and no changes to our existing FY23 forecasts, our focus is on the introduction of new forecasts for FY24 and FY25. We model Clareti recurring revenue growth of 17% and 18% resp. With Clareti having broken through to positive cash EBITDA for the first time in its history in FY22, we expect operating leverage to drive significant margin expansion over the next three years and beyond (Gresham guides to 40% of ARR dropping through to cash EBITDA). We model cash EBITDA margins of 1

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 23 Mar 23

23 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Sopheon - Results: Introducing InnovationOps

FY results to December 2022 are in line with the January trading update indicating exciting prospects. The significant strategic shift to SaaS for all new customers will lead to greater visibility and quality of earnings, and forecasts are unchanged save for changes to US tax assumptions in FY24. $24.3m of ARR at FY22 (+17% vs FY21 ) represents 64% of FY23 revenue expectations; total visibility of FY23 revenue stands at $28.4m, equivalent to 75% of FY expectations (this time last year was $25.1m

NTU update and change of reporting date

We learn today that Tribal has received notification that NTU has terminated its contract and reserved its rights to claim damages. Tribal meanwhile rejects this right to terminate and is considering its next steps. Furthermore - to accommodate this update, the company now expects to report results on 24th March. We therefore consider it is most appropriate to temporarily withdraw forecasts until we regain clarity over this situation and the most likely financial impact.

Looking through the fog

Tribal has provided a useful NTU update, suggesting that the two parties are working towards winding the contract down, albeit negotiations are still ongoing. While this is clearly not an optimal outcome, it nevertheless reduces uncertainty surrounding the stock and so should enable investors to focus on the core business, which continues to perform strongly – delivering +10% u/l ARR growth (despite the NTU loss). With a strong and sticky core market position and an increasingly international pr

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 21 Mar 23

21 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 Mar 23

24 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 20 Mar 23

20 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 16 Mar 23

16 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

Blackbird plc - Finals

Blackbird plc has reported strong full-year results, with record revenue growth driven by its first ‘Powered by Blackbird’ (PBB) licencing deal with EVS, a €300m market-cap media group. EVS launched IPD-VIA Create in December 2022, its new web application developed in collaboration with Blackbird, which has already been deployed by a US broadcaster on a major global sporting event. This, and the continued roll-out by EVS, will translate into additional revenue for Blackbird through its revenue-s

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 13 Mar 23

13 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objectiv

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