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N+1 Singer - Vislink - $16m VCS sale restores balance sheet; Software strategy from here
20 Oct 16
It was announced today that xG Technology has entered into a binding agreement to acquire VCS, Vislink’s hardware division, for $16m. If the transaction completes, Vislink will be left substantially debt free and will be on course to execute its software transition strategy with Pebble Beach. On a standalone basis, we have forecast Pebble Beach revenues of £12.0m for the year to Dec 2016 and adjusted EBIT of £3.6m. We also forecast central overheads of £2.6m in Vislink, but with the disposal of VCS, there should be scope for this to come down. Assuming continued good trading for Pebble Beach, we see further upside to the shares reflecting the good growth, high margin nature of the business.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 21-10-2016
21 Oct 16
Xaar has announced that its FD, Alex Bevis, will be leaving to pursue other opportunities after almost 6 years with the group. A search is underway for his replacement and Alex will remain with Xaar until 24th March 2017. While Alex’s departure is disappointing, Xaar’s strategy remains on track, with new product launches expected to drive near term organic sales growth and a target of £220m sales by 2020. This reflects stronger leverage of Xaar’s innovative technology into a broader spread of end products and markets, with the £220m expected to be composed of broadly equal contributions from ceramics, packaging & product printing, Thin film/P4, and partnerships/M&A. Prospects for the group are exciting, with positive news flow on product launches and end markets anticipated over the year ahead.
Nvidia opens doors, weak PNDs slam them
21 Oct 16
TomTom reported Q3 revenues of €239.3m, down 5.9% yoy and 9.8% sequentially. Consumer decreased by 15% yoy to €137.1m, representing the biggest down-mover. Automotive’s top-line grew by 20.4% to €31.3m, Telematics by 14.8% to €36.5m, while Licensing showed some weakness (€34.4m, -2.3%). The gross margin came in at 60.4%, up 730bp yoy, while the EBIT margin lost 150bp to 0.4% (€1m). EPS came in at zero and adjusted EPS at €0.05. Despite the weak market conditions in Consumer, the company re-iterated its adjusted EPS guidance for FY16 of around €0.23, while the revenues are now estimated to be around €980m, down from €1,050m.
Consensus eps falling…falling…falling…rising 2.0
29 Apr 16
In January we screened for companies with estimates that had been declining consistently since a year previously, but which had risen in the immediately preceding three months (see our note dated 22 January 2016). We have reviewed the performance of those companies and, given the overall strength of this selection, we have re-run the screen. In the c.3 months since selection, the unweighted average rise was c.34% against a c.11% rise in the main All-Share index. From the same universe as before (some 900 companies) we find 38 companies selected by the screen. We note a number of stocks in the list where we have a supportive stance including: Devro (DVO LN, Buy), James Fisher (FSJ LN, Corporate), Mattioli Woods (MTW LN, Buy) and Spirent Communications (SPT LN, Buy).
No fireman seems to be willing to extinguish the fire
21 Oct 16
Ericsson reported sales of SEK51.1bn, a decrease of 13.7% yoy, which was expected after the profit warning on 12 October. On a comparable basis (comparable units and currency), however, the decline was 7%. Every region but SE Asia displayed a decrease, the sharpest being once again in the Middle East (-25%). Networks fell by 19% yoy (SEK23.3bn), Global Services by 8.3% (SEK24.8bn) and Support Solutions by 10.9% (SEK2.9bn). The gross margin, excluding restructuring charges, decreased yoy by 490bp to 29.4%, due to an unfavourable mix. The operating margin was therefore negatively impacted yoy, losing 790bp at 0.7% (710bp excluding restructuring). The EPS came in at SEK-0.07, corresponding to a 106% decline yoy. As a consequence, the company announced an intensification of its restructuring effort in the short term as a way to offset the sales decline. However, the weak market conditions are expected to remain in the short term.
Telia refocus on the Nordics
21 Oct 16
Q3 revenues in local currencies were perfectly in line with expectations: they have declined by 1.2% yoy, exactly as in H1. Note the whole segment region of Eurasia is reported as discontinued operations, as in H1 (the group having announced in September 2015 an orderly retreat from all its operations in this region to refocus on Europe), but Spain (9% of revenues) was still in the accounts despite the announcement of its sale to Masmovil at the end of June. However, EBITDA has decreased by 1.6% yoy at constant change, a poor performance compared to the 5% and 10% growth recorded in Q2 and Q1, but Telia had previously announced that H2 would be tougher than H1 especially in Sweden (which now represents more than 40% of Telia’s activities). In H1, the Swedish EBITDA increase was partly due to one-off fibre installation charges. The current performance in Sweden remains characterised by stable growth in the consumer segment, but pressure in parts of the enterprise area with significant price pressure in the large enterprise and public segments. The outlook for 2016 (to generate an EBITDA in line or slightly above the level in 2015) is, however, unchanged. Last but not least, Q3 was severely impacted by a SEK12.5bn provision related to the US and Dutch authorities settlement proposal, announced in September, as a consequence of Telia’s entry into and operations in Uzbekistan.