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Q3 revenues and EBITDAaL, up respectively by 1.8% and 1.4% yoy, were in line with expectations. Capex was down by 7% yoy also in line with the target of a significant reduction in 2023. Orange is still awaiting a ruling regarding the merger of its Spanish activities with MasMovil. However, Christel Heydemann appeared confident that the transaction can be completed in the Q1 2024. For the past year Orange has been in a virtuous circle of FCF growth: we maintain our Buy.
Companies: Orange (ORA:EPA)Orange SA (ORA:PAR)
AlphaValue
Q2 revenues were slightly better than expected, up by 2.6% yoy and lfl while the EBITDA was more in line with expectations, up by 1% yoy and lfl. The only weak point of the release was the expected pronounced decline in the Enterprise EBITDAaL which should only improve from 2024. The clear positive is that, in 2022, the group entered a virtuous circle of vigorous FCF growth for the coming years. We maintain our strong buy on the stock.
Q1 revenues were in line with expectations, up by 1.3% yoy and lfl while the EBITDA was up by 0.5% yoy and capex down by 5%. Note that the EBITDA margin is traditionally lower in the Q1 and the next few quarters will further benefit from the price increases introduced in early 2023. This Q1 confirms that, in 2022, the group entered a virtuous circle of vigorous FCF growth for the coming years. We maintain our Buy on the stock.
The Q4 performance was pretty much in line with our expectations. The key point is that Orange has announced it will increase its dividend floor to 72 euro cents for 2023, and to 75 euro cents for 2024. Very good news indeed in that only three months ago the group had dashed our hopes of a 2022 dividend increase despite the sharp expected rise in Orange’s cash flow in 2022 (+27% yoy). We maintain our Buy on the stock.
Nothing special to say regarding the Q3 performance which was pretty much in line with our expectations, with a reassuring Spain but a modest growth slow down in Africa. The key point is that having confirmed its outlook of EBITDA growth coupled with a capex decline, the group had been expected to increase its dividend. Unfortunately this will not be the case. Since Telcos are yield stocks and shareholders have been overlooked, this news is likely to weigh on the stock in the coming months.
A decent set of Q2 results for Orange with stable revenues yoy in reported terms and EBITDA up by 4.5% yoy (adjusted for the co-financing). With a forecast of a fairly significant increase in EBITDA less capex, the group should be able to steadily increase its dividend from 2023. We stick to our Strong Buy on the stock. However, in the short term, the rotation toward quality growth stocks at the expense of telcos is likely to continue.
Companies: Orange SA (0OQV:LON)Orange SA (ORA:PAR)
The Q1 figures were in line with our expectations but they confirmed the outlook for 2022 of an EBITDA growth of 2.5/3% and a c.5% decrease in capex. We still expect the group to enter a virtuous circle of vigorous FCF growth in the coming years allowing steady dividend growth. So we stick to our Strong Buy. Orange deserves to return to the best-in-class group in the telecom sector consistent with its 4.5% dividend yield.
Orange and MasMovil announced this morning the combination of their operations in Spain. The combined entity would become a strong second player in Spain with revenues of €7.5bn (vs €12.5bn for Telefonica), EBITDAaL of €2.2bn. It is expected to generate €450m of synergies from the third year post closing onwards. So, clearly a nice leaving gift for Orange from its future ex-CEO Stephane Richard. We maintain our Buy on the stock.
Nothing special to say about the Q4 results which were in line with expectations. For the whole year, revenues were up by 0.8% yoy and lfl, while EBITDA was down by 0.5% yoy. The key point is indeed the outlook for 2022 which is finally as we hoped. EBITDA should grow by 2.5-3%, while capex should decrease by 5%. The time has arrived to see a regular increase in the FCF in the coming years. We stick to our Strong Buy.
A correct Q2 for Orange but the poor EBITDA outlook for 2021 has been confirmed and the dividend proposed for 2021 will be stable at €0.7. So nothing to wake up the stock. The group is not expensive compared to its peers, and it offers an enticing c.7.5% dividend yield. Although not for this year, the group could surprise the market by a higher dividend increase than expected in the coming years. We stick to our Strong Buy.
The EBITDAaL was eventually down by 1% yoy but should have grown by 3.2% excluding the COVID-19 impact. Despite this solid performance and the return to normal of its dividend, the stock is still languishing 20% below its pre-pandemic levels. At first investors were also quite circumspect about Orange’s determination to keep its new towers company within the scope of the group. But later, Stephane Richard made it clear that Orange won’t go it alone in the towers space.
Companies: Orange SA
A decent Q3 for Orange as the impact of COVID-19 was more limited than in Q2 with only the sharp decline in roaming due to travel restrictions. The key point of this release is, however, a proposed return to a €0.70 dividend for 2020 (with an interim dividend of €0.40 in December). We maintain our Strong Buy on the stock with a 7.75% dividend yield for the coming 12 months.
Q2 revenues were down by only 0.4% yoy and the impact of COVID-19 was indeed very limited. This correct Q2 performance reflects a better than expected solid growth in France. But, more importantly, given an expected stable EBITDA less capex in 2020, Orange will pay a dividend of €0.70 for 2020 (to be confirmed after Q3). So a return to normal which deserves a better price. We maintain our Strong Buy on the stock.
Orange presented yesterday its new strategic plan “Engage 2025”. The stock was, however, down by 4% yesterday while the group refused to commit to increasing its dividends over the period. We maintain, however, our opinion at Buy on the stock with a significant upside.
Q2 revenues were up by 0.7% yoy and lfl, a satisfactory number and better than the zero growth recorded in Q1. The correct Q2 performance reflects this time a very solid resilience in France (+0.4%) and an acceleration in Africa & Middle East (+5.8%), while Spain was disappointing with revenues down by 1.6% due to a highly promotional market. EBITDA has grown by 2% yoy and lfl and was slightly above expectations. We maintain our Buy on the stock.
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Just 15 months after winning its first order in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite communications market, Filtronic has announced a 5-year strategic partnership with SpaceX which includes an initial $19.7m (£15.8m) E-band amplifier production order for delivery in FY25. As a result, we upgrade our FY24/FY25 forecasts and lift our target price to 57.4p (was 37.5p), equivalent to 74% upside. Although this is the first time SpaceX’s Starlink has been named as a Filtronic customer, this is now the
Companies: Filtronic plc
Cavendish
Companies: 88E CNC FTC TRCS HEIQ CREO ZAM
CyanConnode exceeded FY24 revenue expectations and has high visibility into FY25, supported by strong deliveries and a growing backlog respectively.
Companies: CyanConnode Holdings plc
Zeus Capital
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti
Companies: EPIC DARK TIDE IGP IOM NCC CHRT CNS CLCO TERN SWG CCS SYS BVC
Hybridan
Companies: PHC SRT DCTA
Calnex has released a pre-close trading update for the year to March 2024, indicating that revenue would be £16.3m, c£0.7m below our forecast, partly due to the timing of orders at the end of the period. Group trading has been impacted by the well-documented, continuing challenges in the Telecoms sector which have seen delayed project timings leading to corresponding delays in customer spending. Administrative costs are being controlled and are focussed on maintaining R&D. Calnex remains confide
Companies: Calnex Solutions Plc
Companies: BATM Advanced Communications Ltd.
Shore Capital
Filtronic has reported results in-line with management expectations for H1/24, and now expects to perform ahead of our forecasts for FY24E and FY25E in terms of revenue and profit. We are raising our revenue forecasts for FY24E and FY25E by 14.6% and 6.2% respectively, and our EBITDA forecasts by 85.2% and 28.0% respectively. The increase in expectation is driven by a strong recent acceleration in order flow, including a £7.8m order announced today. In this report we present a detailed review of
SRT Marine Systems has reported a change of year end from 12-months to March 2024 to 15-months to June 2024, with revenue forecasts extended by three months for both new year ends, and an encouraging operational update. The company is concerned that government related paperwork on two existing CG projects (SEA and ME) may not be completed in time for a March invoice and risks falling into the next quarter. In one jurisdiction where there a number of new project prospects, the company must meet s
Companies: SRT Marine Systems plc
6th February 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje
Companies: ROQ NCYT ALU FTC ECK ORCP BIOM PYC SPR REAT
FY23 revenues and EBITDA were in line with expectations. The major news was that BT plans to shed more than 40% of staff. At the end of the decade the EBITDA could reach £11bn with the massive restructuring announced and capex could return to €3.5bn per year. EBITDA less capex could be multiplied by 2.5 and therefore also the dividend. This could value BT at 385 pence at that time. We maintain our opinion at Add on the stock.
Companies: BT Group plc
A decent Q1 performance despite the expected headwinds from cost-of-living pressure and cost inflation. The group is clearly a fairly safe long-term buy and hold. BT plans to shed more than 40% of staff by the end of the decade. In parallel it is further accelerating its FTTP deployment with high capex. But at the end of this phase EBITDA-capex could be multiplied by 2.5. Speculation could also again reignite as Drahi’s empire (owning 24.5% of BT) is being shaken by corruption cases.
Q4 revenues were only up by 1.3% yoy (excluding the inclusion of EE for two months). A better performance than might be thought at first sight given the 8% decline recorded by the wholesale division (due to the benefit of ladder pricing revenue recognised last year). BT’s Fixed consumer revenues, 25% of BT’s business (excluding EE and Openreach) corresponding to BT’s own retail business, were up by 8% yoy with a 20% increase in broadband and TV revenue. Openreach revenue (28% of BT’s revenue not
Q1 16 revenues declined by 2.6% yoy (excluding the contact centre business SNT Deutschland which was sold in Q1). Once again growing Consumer revenues were offset by the impact of the ongoing decline in size of the business market and lower revenues at iBasis. The EBITDA decreased by 4.5% yoy but this is due to temporarily higher IT-related costs in network and operations in the run-up to IT rationalisation. Note also an impairment charge related to iBasis for €45m. KPN intends to pay a regul
Companies: Royal KPN NV
Q4 2015 revenues declined by 5.9% yoy (adjusted with a tax settlement benefit of €44m in Q4 2014). Growing Consumer revenues were offset by the impact of the ongoing decline of the business market size and lower revenues at iBasis. The EBITDA decreased however by only 0.7% yoy in Q4 2015 (without the tax settlement benefit in Q4 2014). These results are quite disappointing compared to the previous Q3 where revenues were down by only 2.6% yoy (vs -3.5% in H1) thanks to 3.7% growth on the co
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