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The Q3 EBITDAal was good, up by 1.8% yoy thanks to solid service revenue growth and despite higher energy costs and personnel expenses. The group can now be considered a long-term FCF growth story (EBITDA less capex was up by 6% yoy in 2022 and should be quasi flat in 2023 but probably for the last year before growing more strongly). The dividend yield is at 4.8% like Elisa and just above Swisscom (4.15%). We remain at Add.
Companies: Royal KPN NV
AlphaValue
Q2 revenues were up by 1.6% yoy and lfl (with a good and promising 2.8% service revenue growth), like in Q1 and in line with our expectations. The EBITDAaL was flat yoy, a logically better performance than in Q1. The group can now be considered a long-term FCF growth story. KPN confirmed its dividend at 15 euro cents for 2023 and intends to increase its dividend by 3-5% per year for the following years. We maintain our opinion at Add.
The Q1 numbers were in line with expectations with revenues up by 1.9% while the EBITDAaL was down by 1.6% due to higher energy costs. Capex was however stronger than expected, up by 15.5%. Although KPN can now be considered a long-term FCF growth story and plans to increase its dividend by 5% for 2023 we nonetheless maintain our Reduce on the stock (with no downside) as KPN currently offers a 4.4% dividend yield while Dutch rates are at 2.9%.
Q4 numbers were bang in line with expectations and EBITDAal was up by 2.4% yoy (a strong performance given the fact that higher revenues and continued cost control were partially offset by higher direct costs and inflationary effects). With the 5% increase in its dividend for 2023, the group now offers a 4.85% dividend yield. This leaves indeed some upside compared to Swisscom and Elisa. And, if you add the share buy-back, you have a 7% return to shareholders.
Q3 revenues were at the upper range of the consensus while EBITDAal also stood also towards the high end of the consensus range, up by 1.8% yoy (a good performance given the fact that higher revenues and continued cost control were partially offset by higher direct costs and inflationary effects). We had been at reduce on the stock over the summer when KPN was offering a 4.15% dividend yield. The yield is now a more attractive 5.3% and we are again at Add.
Q2 Revenues and EBITDA grew respectively by 1.4% (like in Q1) and 1.1% yoy (thanks to tight cost control while the inflationary effects on opex were less absorbed than in Q1). KPN has slightly upgraded its full year outlook. The group can now clearly be seen as a modest long-term growth story. We are however at Reduce with no downside. The stock has reached what could be a ceiling given its dividend yield at 4.15%/4.3% against a backdrop of increasing interest rates.
Q1 Revenues and EBITDA grew respectively by 1.6% and 3.1% yoy (thanks to tight cost control while inflationary effects on opex and Capex were absorbed). The group can now be seen as a modest long-term growth story. We are however at Reduce with no downside. Like Swisscom or Elisa, the KPN share price has declined since Mid-March after having reached what could be a peak given their dividend yields at c.4% in a climate of rising long-term rates.
Q4 was bang in line with expectations. KPN has confirmed its outlook for 2022-23 and clarified its dividend intentions: a 5% yoy growth for 2022 and a 3-5% growth for the following years. The group can now clearly be seen as a slight growth story over the long term. The high investments are paying off and they should decrease from 2024. We believe the group deserves a best-in-class dividend yield and we maintain our opinion at Add.
Q2 was slightly better than expectations with a very slight increase in revenues and an EBITDAal up by 0.6% yoy. KPN can now be seen as a future slight growth story. KPN’s dividend should increase in the coming years thanks to higher ARPUs and a better EBITDA margin. Note the group has just announced a new share buy-back programme representing 2% of the market cap. The group deserves a better dividend yield and we maintain our Buy recommendation.
Q1 was very slightly better than expectations. Despite the high capex still planned for 2021-23, KPN should offer a regular slight growth of 3-5% per year in its dividend. KPN will accelerate its fibre rollout to more than c.500k homes passed per year, crossing the 55% mark in 2023 and reaching c.75% of Dutch households by 2025. We maintain our opinion at Add on the stock with a 12% upside.
A promising Q4. For the first time, the growing revenues from KPN’s fibre portfolio more than offset declining revenues from the copper portfolio. This indeed bodes well for steady growth in the Fixed activities in the years to come. The group can now be seen as a slight growth story as opposed to zero growth before. High investments should not decrease before 2024 but they are paying off… and the dividend should slightly increase thanks to higher ARPUs and a better EBITDA margin.
Q3 was in line with expectations with a disappointing 3.7% yoy and lfl decline in revenues but very solid EBITDA up by 1.3% yoy and lfl. The stock has already recovered and is trading 7% below its February levels and at its May levels. This is however also due to recent rumours about a takeover of KPN by the European private equity firm EQT. We maintain our Buy opinion on the stock.
Q2 was in line with expectations with a 3% decline in revenues but a flat EBITDA yoy and lfl. The stock has already recovered and is 5-10% below its February prices. Given the dividend could slightly increase in the coming years and that the dividend yield is only at its peers average, we maintain our opinion at Add on the stock.
Q4 revenues were down by 3% yoy, a slightly disappointing number as we were hoping for signs of stabilisation. Q4 EBITDA, down by 1.6% yoy and lfl, was also disappointing but above all it is the 2020 outlook which has a chilling effect as the EBITDA should be stable or slightly growing despite the new wave of KPN’s simplification programme. We maintain our opinion on the stock at Add, but we will probaly lower our estimates for 2020.
Q2 revenues were down by 3.1% yoy, a slightly disappointing number which was, however, expected as in Q1 they were down by 2.9%. But EBITDA (adjusted from IFRS 16) was up by 3.6%: good news reflecting more than in previous quarters that, despite lower revenues, savings related to the second wave of its Simplification programme and digitalisation of services are bearing fruit. We maintain our opinion at Add on KPN.
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Just 15 months after winning its first order in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite communications market, Filtronic has announced a 5-year strategic partnership with SpaceX which includes an initial $19.7m (£15.8m) E-band amplifier production order for delivery in FY25. As a result, we upgrade our FY24/FY25 forecasts and lift our target price to 57.4p (was 37.5p), equivalent to 74% upside. Although this is the first time SpaceX’s Starlink has been named as a Filtronic customer, this is now the
Companies: Filtronic plc
Cavendish
Companies: 88E CNC FTC TRCS HEIQ CREO ZAM
24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi
Companies: FTC AGL SRT SOU G4M AOM SUP
Hybridan
CyanConnode exceeded FY24 revenue expectations and has high visibility into FY25, supported by strong deliveries and a growing backlog respectively.
Companies: CyanConnode Holdings plc
Zeus Capital
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword in cybersecurity. Whilst new AI models, architectures, and innovations are emerging to protect the security posture of organisations, attackers are also benefiting from deepfakes, sophisticated phishing, and automation of malicious codes. To ensure the impact of AI on cybersecurity to be a net-positive, we need to pit good AI against bad AI. Point solutions enhanced with machine learning: Global cybersecurity has been built with point soluti
Companies: EPIC DARK TIDE IGP IOM NCC CHRT CNS CLCO TERN SWG CCS SYS BVC
SRT Marine Systems has reported a change of year end from 12-months to March 2024 to 15-months to June 2024, with revenue forecasts extended by three months for both new year ends, and an encouraging operational update. The company is concerned that government related paperwork on two existing CG projects (SEA and ME) may not be completed in time for a March invoice and risks falling into the next quarter. In one jurisdiction where there a number of new project prospects, the company must meet s
Companies: SRT Marine Systems plc
Filtronic’s recent investment and focus on high-performance radio frequency (RF) design and manufacturing is starting to pay off, with recent new customer wins, development contracts and volume production orders boosting the order backlog. H124 results do not reflect this recent success: revenue was essentially flat and investment in sales and engineering reduced EBITDA. However, the strong backlog gives management confidence that revenue and profit will exceed consensus estimates for FY24 and F
Edison
Companies: PHC SRT DCTA
Calnex has released a pre-close trading update for the year to March 2024, indicating that revenue would be £16.3m, c£0.7m below our forecast, partly due to the timing of orders at the end of the period. Group trading has been impacted by the well-documented, continuing challenges in the Telecoms sector which have seen delayed project timings leading to corresponding delays in customer spending. Administrative costs are being controlled and are focussed on maintaining R&D. Calnex remains confide
Companies: Calnex Solutions Plc
Companies: BATM Advanced Communications Ltd.
Shore Capital
Filtronic has reported results in-line with management expectations for H1/24, and now expects to perform ahead of our forecasts for FY24E and FY25E in terms of revenue and profit. We are raising our revenue forecasts for FY24E and FY25E by 14.6% and 6.2% respectively, and our EBITDA forecasts by 85.2% and 28.0% respectively. The increase in expectation is driven by a strong recent acceleration in order flow, including a £7.8m order announced today. In this report we present a detailed review of
6th February 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje
Companies: ROQ NCYT ALU FTC ECK ORCP BIOM PYC SPR REAT
FY23 revenues and EBITDA were in line with expectations. The major news was that BT plans to shed more than 40% of staff. At the end of the decade the EBITDA could reach £11bn with the massive restructuring announced and capex could return to €3.5bn per year. EBITDA less capex could be multiplied by 2.5 and therefore also the dividend. This could value BT at 385 pence at that time. We maintain our opinion at Add on the stock.
Companies: BT Group plc
A decent Q1 performance despite the expected headwinds from cost-of-living pressure and cost inflation. The group is clearly a fairly safe long-term buy and hold. BT plans to shed more than 40% of staff by the end of the decade. In parallel it is further accelerating its FTTP deployment with high capex. But at the end of this phase EBITDA-capex could be multiplied by 2.5. Speculation could also again reignite as Drahi’s empire (owning 24.5% of BT) is being shaken by corruption cases.
Q4 revenues were only up by 1.3% yoy (excluding the inclusion of EE for two months). A better performance than might be thought at first sight given the 8% decline recorded by the wholesale division (due to the benefit of ladder pricing revenue recognised last year). BT’s Fixed consumer revenues, 25% of BT’s business (excluding EE and Openreach) corresponding to BT’s own retail business, were up by 8% yoy with a 20% increase in broadband and TV revenue. Openreach revenue (28% of BT’s revenue not
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