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    ISHR GVT GERMANY 2 5-5 5 DE

  • 11 Nov 19

LIBERUM: AFH Financial Group* - Organically growing and improved FCF

AFH continues to grow at an impressive rate compared to peers in a tough market environment. It has delivered 8% organic net flows and new business written is up 46% yoy.

Companies: AFH Financial Group
  • 21 Oct 19

Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 04 Nov 19

THE MONTHLY November 2019

The trade-off in the risk/reward for gold and gold mining equities is improving, as central banks push the current iteration of the post-World War II Bretton Woods financial order towards its limits.

Companies: AVO AJB AGY ARBB BUR CLIG DNL DPP FLTA GTLY GDR MCL MUR NSF PCA PIN SRE PHP RE/ RECI RMDL STX SCE TON SHED VTA W7L

  • 13 Nov 19

End of the litany of Q3 19 bad news

British Land closed the British earnings season with no major surprises. The good news was the stable Offices segment. The bad news was the 10% negative revaluation in the Retail business. Once again: wait for the Brexit consequences.

Companies: British Land Company
  • 14 Nov 19

Active management drives +5% EPRA NAV growth

Urban Logistics REIT (“ULR”) has reported in line interim results. Rental growth continues, which in turn drives valuations and the underlying EPRA NAV: +5% in H1 to 145.2p. ULR’s brand of active asset management continues to yield results, with logical capital recycling into higher yield assets and +£0.6m rent uplifts achieved on reviews. We do not make material changes to our forecasts. We believe that the valuation remains attractive – 6%+ prospective dividend yield, trading at a 10% discount to NAV – in light of sustained value creation, clear quality of income (6.1yr WAULT) and further opportunity from a space in structural growth with strong demand.

Companies: Urban Logistics REIT
  • 25 Sep 19

Cenkos: 1pm Plc - Foundations for sustainable, faster growth

1pm's FY19A results were well flagged by June's trading update with revenues of £31.8m (+6% YoY), adj PBT of £8.1m (+4%), while adj EPS grew +2%. Growth this year has come from purely organic means. FY20E will be somewhat of an investment year, building out management and infrastructure to accelerate revenues strongly over FY21-22E. 1pm is focused on sustainable lending over chasing volumes at lower margins.

Companies: 1PM
  • 11 Nov 19

Interims show strong growth

What’s new: Tatton Asset Management’s results for the six months to 30 September revealed strong growth in divisional revenue and profits: ▪ 15% rise in Group Revenue to £9.73m (1H18: £8.45m) - AuM based revenues rose 19% to £7.10m (1H18: £5.99m), with Tatton Investment revenue rising 35% and wrap income declining; - Paradigm revenues rose 7% to £2.60m (1H18: £2.43m); ▪ 23% rise in Group adjusted operating profit to £4.13m (1H18: £3.35m) - 23% rise in AuM based profit to £4.27m (1H18: £3.48m) which is 42% rise in Tatton Investment profits (as previously reported); - 11% rise in Paradigm profits to £0.91m (1H18: £0.82m) and - 11% rise in central costs to £1.1m (1H18: £0.96m) ▪ Adj FD EPS rose 18% to 5.4p (1H18: 4.6p); ▪ Interim DPS was increased 14% to 3.2p (1H18: 2.8p); ▪ Net cash was £9.17m after paying £3.1m final dividend and £2.0m for Sinfonia, with operating cash conversion at over 100%. The Group trading update on 17 October had already announced: ▪ 14.8% rise in Group AuM to £7.0 billion (30/9/18: £5.7 billion: 23% rise YoY; 31/3/19: £6.1 billion: 14.8% rise in the 6 months period): - 1H organic net inflows of £441m increased AuM by 7.2%; - the Sinfonia acquisition added £135m, increasing Group AuM by 2.2%. Outlook: Paul Hogarth, Founder and CEO, notes: “monthly net flows continuing to perform well from both existing and new IFAs despite an uncertain and volatile market” and the reorganisation of the group’s “IFA support services businesses under the existing Paradigm brand but with one simplified operational and management structure …[should enable] improved efficiencies and opportunities”.

Companies: Tatton Asset Management
  • 12 Nov 19

Huge ambition with resources available to execute

Kingswood presents investors with a rare opportunity to achieve outsized returns from an institutional grade financial services management team positioned to tap into underlying sector tailwinds in retail wealth management. The largest shareholder, KPI Nominees, has injected and underwritten new capital to establish a robust and efficient operation which is now able to benefit from an additional £80m growth capital from Pollen Street (£4.8m drawn), a global investor with a strong track record in financial services. The group aims to offer best in class, vertically-integrated wealth planning and investment management services backed by leading technology, a rigorous risk and compliance environment and innovative product offerings. Below we outline the potential for this model and note the shares could deliver a medium-term 4.8x return, backed by a UK and US-led acquisition strategy. An exciting first step towards rapid growth.

Companies: Kingswood Holdings
  • 13 Nov 19

Gamesys Group - Growth across the enlarged group

Gamesys’ pro forma Q319 revenues increased by 20% to £144.3m due to 57% growth in Vera&John (international markets), strong momentum in the acquired Gamesys business and, encouragingly, a return to growth in the Jackpotjoy UK brand. The EBITDA margin declined 680bp to 26.7% as a result of higher taxes and marketing spend. We are raising our FY19 revenues estimate by 2.3% but keeping our EBITDA forecasts unchanged. We continue to forecast net cash flow of £105m in FY20 and our net debt/EBITDA falls from 3.0x currently to 2.0x at end FY20. The stock trades at 6.0x P/E and 7.1x EV/EBITDA, with a 13.8% FCF yield for FY20e.

Companies: Gamesys Group
  • 29 Aug 19

Now is the time for profit

NSF has reached the turning point in its strategic development. Having invested heavily in infrastructure, controls and people, it has substantially built the franchise. The pace of further investment is expected to now slow, at the same time as payback from historical investment becomes increasingly visible. We see profit growth accelerating sharply, driven by wider jaws between revenue and costs in the branch business and guarantor loans, efficiency improvements in home collect, and improving credit. Assuming NSF is successful in securing additional lower-cost funding, we expect funding costs to relatively reduce, and the funding mix to improve. Our strong growth forecasts are unchanged.

Companies: Non-Standard Finance
  • 03 Sep 19

H1 EPS up +23% emphasises the opportunity

Belvoir has reported a strong H1 with adj. EPS up +23% driven by managed service fees up +5%, Financial Services net commission up +160% (+21% organic) and tight cost control. Cash generation remained strong with 96% of adj. operating profit converting into cash, and the interim dividend was maintained at 3.4p (providing a 3% yield on its own). Management has highlighted a promising start to H2 and we consequently make no changes to our forecasts. As we stated in our recent initiation note, Belvoir’s franchise model maximises entrepreneurial potential, flexibility and cash flow while minimising risk. With the UK residential property market undergoing structural change at the same time as economic uncertainty, this is providing Belvoir with significant potential to gain market share – as today’s results evidence. We reiterate our 190p target.

Companies: Belvoir Lettings
  • 07 Nov 19

Cenkos Securities - Resilient broker with a substantial track record

Cenkos has a record of successful fund-raising for clients and maintaining annual profitability since its inception in 2005. This reflects its focus on client outcomes, a well-established network of business relationships and flexibility in its cost base. Its client relationships should stand it in good stead when market conditions become more favourable. In the meantime, the company’s strong balance sheet, with substantial capital headroom, provides reassurance and Cenkos would not need to attain earlier levels of return on equity to warrant a materially higher valuation.

Companies: Cenkos Securities
  • 11 Nov 19

Fidelity China Special Situations - Domestic opportunities offer exciting prospects

Fidelity China Special Situations (FCSS) offers investors direct exposure to China for a portion of their portfolio, aiming to deliver long-term capital growth from investing in companies listed in China, and Chinese companies listed elsewhere. Since the trust’s inception in April 2010, FCSS’s NAV total return has increased by nearly 11% pa. The portfolio has a bias towards mid- and small-cap companies, which tend to be less well researched and potentially mispriced. The manager, Dale Nicholls, is focused on opportunities related to rising domestic consumption, which in his view is unlikely to be disrupted by the ongoing US-China trade dispute.

Companies: Fidelity China Special Situations
  • 12 Nov 19

Portfolio update reiterates progress

Tern has issued an update on the activities of its portfolio companies so far in the second half of 2019. It follows recent fundraises both for Tern itself (of £1.75 million) and one of its investee companies – see our note “Dual fundraises endorse Tern’s strategy”. The Group confirms that it has invested £1.1 million in its portfolio companies since the end of June 2019, mainly in the form of convertible debt. It also says that turnover of Tern’s four principal portfolio companies for the nine months ended 30 September 2019 was ahead of last year. If the four businesses conclude certain outstanding opportunities, their turnover should meet Tern’s expectations of a 50% increase for the full year. Tern is in the earlier stages of discussions regarding several potential new investments. We note the recognition of the investee companies by investors and clients which is reflected in the fundraisings, contract wins and participation in projects by the businesses.

Companies: Tern
  • 12 Nov 19

Yield decompression everywhere; but the City of London resists

Regional retail was the usual victim in H1 19. However, LandSec’s assets in the City of London resisted pretty well.

Companies: Land Securities Group